Gangues, Novíssimas Guerras e (Sub)Cultura da Violência/Delinquência

This paper aims to reflect the problem of gangs and their relationship with urban space in the urban wars scenery that emerged in the 1980s and 1990s in densely populated cities, as well as discuss the adequacy of explanations on the phenomenon of violence and delinquency, in some contexts, from the concept of subculture. Starts with the conceptualization and characterization of gangs, presenting them as one of the central figures in the new type of violent conflict that erupts in the urban centers around the world and relate their institutionalization in neighbourhood with the idea of ‘Retreat of the State’ in poorest urban zones, as well as presenting the position of some families in relation to their activities.

Fiscal decentralization policies and sub-national government debt in evolving federations

As part of a process of democratization, many countries spanning Europe, Latin Amertica, Africa, and Asia are reorganizing their governments bydevolving fiscal responsibility and authority to newly empowered regionaland local governments. Although decentralization in each country proceedsdifferently, a common element tends to be an initially heavy relianceon central government grants to fund regional spending. We develop atheoretical model of regional borrowing decisions in which the incentivesfor regional borrowing depend crucially on how the regions expect thefederal system of finance to evolve. We examine the implications of themodel using data on Spanish regions for the period 1984-1995 and findevidence that regions may be borrowing inefficiently in response toincentives imbedded in the Spanish system of fiscal decentralization.

Familias Estruturadas e Sub-Familias de Matrizes

Desenvolvemos modelos para matrizes estocásticas simétricas com matriz média com característica um. Estas matrizes desempenham um papel relevante em muitas situações interessantes, por exemplo em problemas de componentes principais com primeira componente dominante. Mostramos como ajustar e validar tais modelos e como medir o respectivo grau de Ajustamento através de um estudo de simulações para evidenciar o bom comportamento dos estimadores obtidos. Esse bom comportamento verifica-se quando o primeiro valor próprio da matriz média e suficientemente preponderante. Utilizando a linearidade assimptótica foi possível testar se esta condição se verifica. Al em de modelos para matrizes quase escalares estudamos famílias estruturadas de modelos, cujas matrizes correspondem aos tratamentos de um delineamento base. Consideramos ainda famílias de modelos divididas em subfamílias que correspondem a esses tratamentos. Estamos sobretudo interessados em modelos base com estrutura ortogonal. Apresentamos essa estrutura e mostramos como aplicar esses modelos no estudo de famílias estruturadas. Damos uma aplicação dos nossos resultados a metodologia Statis, concretamente aos resultados de eleições autárquicas em Portugal Continental. Nesta aplicação utilizamos o facto destes modelos serem aplicáveis a primeira e segunda etapas desta metodologia. Assim, consideramos um par de famílias decompostas, em subfamílias que correspondem aos tratamentos do mesmo delineamento base. A primeira família corresponde a primeira etapa da metodologia Statis, e a segunda família corresponde a segunda etapa da mesma metodologia. Estudamos a heterogeneidade das subfamílias de ambas as famílias de modelos. Concluímos que a ordenação das subfamílias a partir da respectiva heterogeneidade se mantém da primeira para a segunda etapa.

Accounting information and the prediction of farm viability

Until recently farm management made little use of accounting and agriculture has been largely excluded from the scope of accounting standards. This article examines the current use of accounting in agriculture and points theneed to establish accounting standards for agriculture. Empirical evidence shows that accounting can make a significant contribution to agricultural management and farm viability and could also be important for other agents involved in agricultural decision making. Existing literature on failureprediction models and farm viability prediction studies provide the starting point for our research, in which two dichotomous logit models were applied to subsamples of viable and unviable farms in Catalonia, Spain. The firstmodel considered only non-financial variables, while the other also considered financial ones. When accounting variables were added to the model, a significant reduction in deviance was observed.

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Prediction of postnatal outcome in fetuses with pulmonary hypoplasia by fetal-MRI: Comparison between lung volumetry and pulmonary signal intensity values

Purpose: Pulmonary hypoplasia is a determinant parameter for extra-uterine life. In the last years, MRI appears as a complement to US in order to evaluate the degree of pulmonary hypoplasia in foetuses with congenital anomalies, by using different methods - fetal lung volumetry (FLV), lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR)-. But until now, information about the correlation between the MRI prediction and the real postnatal outcome is limited. Methods and materials: We retrospectively reviewed the fetal MRI performed at our Institution in the last 8 years and selected the cases with suspicion of fetal pulmonary hypoplasia (n = 30). The pulmonary volumetry data of these foetuses were collected and the lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR) measures performed. These data were compared with those obtained from a control group of 25 foetuses considered as normal at MRI. The data of the study group were also correlated with the autopsy records or the post-natal clinical information of the patients. Results: As expected, the control group showed higher FLV and LLSIR values than the problem group at all gestational ages. Higher values of FLV and LLSIR were associated with a better post-natal outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy for the relative LLSIR and the relative FLV showed no significant differences. Conclusion: Our data show that not only the FLV but also the relative LLSIR inform about the degree of fetal lung development. This information may help to predict the fetal outcome and to evaluate the need for neonatal intensive care.

Diversity of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae) in three fragments of semideciduous seasonal forest in the northwest of São Paulo State, Brazil

Human exploitation of the forest in the northwest of São Paulo State has generated enormous fragmentation of that forest. Such disturbance has reduced the populations of insects in general. This work was a survey of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae; Polistinae) in three areas in different stages of regeneration: Paulo de Faria - SP (435 ha), Pindorama - SP (128 ha) and Neves Paulista - SP (1 ha). These three areas were chosen for comparative purposes. To capture the wasps, it was used: active collecting with attractant liquid (solution of water, salt and sugar) with the aid of a dorsal spray bag. During the period from July to December 2006, 414 social wasps were collected in Paulo de Faria, constituting seven species belonging to four genera; 111 social wasps were collected in Pindorama, constituting six species belonging to four genera, and 129 social wasps were collected in Neves Paulista constituting 12 species belonging to seven genera. In order to compare these three areas ecological indexes were calculated. Neves Paulista had the greatest diversity, and Paulo de Faria presented greater abundance. These factors were probably caused by neighboring areas and ecological corridors, which were limited in Paulo de Faria and Pindorama.

Seasonal and spatial species richness variation of dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae s. str.) in the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil

The knowledge on Atlantic Forest scarab beetle fauna is quite limited. This biome is strongly degraded and these insects can be used as bioindicators since they are sensitive to forest destruction and show distinct organizational patterns in forest fragments or in areas that have been deteriorated by human activity. Thus, a study of the Scarabaeidae (sensu stricto) dung beetles fauna that inhabit Serra do Japi, São Paulo, Brazil (23º12'-23º22' S and 46º53'-47º03'W) was carried out; the monthly species richness was analyzed in six areas during one year and the vegetation's structural physiognomy was described. The areas included a conserved and a degraded valley, a northward and a southward hillside, a hilltop, and an area of secondary forest growing under eucalyptus trees. The specimens were collected using four pitfall traps baited with human feces, which remained at each spot during 48 hours. Between September, 1997 and August, 1998, 3524 individuals of 39 species were collected; the most abundant were: Canthidium trinodosum, Eurysternus cyanescens, Uroxys kratochvili, Scybalocanthon nigriceps, Uroxys lata, Canthonella sp., Dichotomius assifer, Deltochilum furcatum, Canthidium sp.2, Canthon latipes, Deltochilum rubripenne, Eurysternus sp., and Dichotomius sp.1. The number of individuals and species was greater in the hot, rainy season, when there was a correlation between the number of species and the mean annual temperature [r²= 0.69; p<0.01]. The lower winter richness was most pronounced in the conserved valley, while richness remained relatively constant in the degraded valley; abundance was much higher in the degraded valley. The cluster analysis showed that the valleys and hillsides are the most similar in relation to species composition and abundance, yet different from the secondary forest with eucalypts and the hilltop.

Timing of seasonal sales

We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores chooseseveral designs at the beginning of the season without knowingwich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have achance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionableones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of theseason, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing theirfashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods stillon the shelves, stores adjust downward their expectations that theyare carrying a fashionable design, and may have sales to capture thediscount market. Having a greater number of designs induces a storeto put one of them on sales earlier to test the market. Moreover,price competition in the discount market induces stores to startsales earlier because of a greater perceived first-mover advantage incapturing the discount market. More competition, perhaps due todecreases in the cost of product innovation, makes sales occur evenearlier. These results are consistent with the observation that thetrend toward earlier sales since mid-1970's coincides with increasingproduct varieties in fashion good markets and increasing storecompetition.

Genome-Wide Prediction Methods in Highly Diverse and Heterozygous Species: Proof-of-Concept through Simulation in Grapevine.

Nowadays, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic selection (GS) methods which use genome-wide marker data for phenotype prediction are of much potential interest in plant breeding. However, to our knowledge, no studies have been performed yet on the predictive ability of these methods for structured traits when using training populations with high levels of genetic diversity. Such an example of a highly heterozygous, perennial species is grapevine. The present study compares the accuracy of models based on GWAS or GS alone, or in combination, for predicting simple or complex traits, linked or not with population structure. In order to explore the relevance of these methods in this context, we performed simulations using approx 90,000 SNPs on a population of 3,000 individuals structured into three groups and corresponding to published diversity grapevine data. To estimate the parameters of the prediction models, we defined four training populations of 1,000 individuals, corresponding to these three groups and a core collection. Finally, to estimate the accuracy of the models, we also simulated four breeding populations of 200 individuals. Although prediction accuracy was low when breeding populations were too distant from the training populations, high accuracy levels were obtained using the sole core-collection as training population. The highest prediction accuracy was obtained (up to 0.9) using the combined GWAS-GS model. We thus recommend using the combined prediction model and a core-collection as training population for grapevine breeding or for other important economic crops with the same characteristics.

A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

The effect of sub-lethal doses of Azadirachta indica (Meliaceae) oil on the midgut of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae)

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is one of the major field pests for maize production. It is mainly controlled by means of synthetic, and more recently by resistant cultivar of maize expressing Bt toxins. The neem tree, Azadirachta indica, is a plant that can potentially control insects with the advantage of being food and environmental safe. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of neem oil on the development and survival of S. frugiperda caterpillars by assessing histological alterations caused on their midgut. Newly hatched caterpillars were submitted to three neem oil concentrations: 0.006; 0.05; 0.4%, which were added to their artificial diet. Ten 3rd instar caterpillars, taken from each treatment, were submitted to histological analysis. The alimentary canals from the specimens were fixed in Baker for 12 hours, desiccated and diaphanized in alcohol/xylol (1:1) and xylol. After placing the samples in paraffin, they were sliced in 8 µm sections and stained with hematoxylin-eosin stain. The neem oil added to the diet of S. frugiperda caused total mortality at dose of 0.4% whilst still in the first instars, prolonged the larval and pupal stages, and reduced the pupal weight. Histo-physiological alterations such as degeneration of the epithelial lining of the midgut and in the peritrophic matrix were found at all concentrations of neem oil.

Seasonal flight and resource collection patterns of colonies of the stingless bee Melipona bicolor schencki Gribodo (Apidae, Meliponini) in an Araucaria forest area in southern Brazil

Melipona bicolor schencki occurs in southern Brazil and at high elevations in southeastern Brazil. It has potential for use in meliponiculture but this stingless bee species is vulnerable to extinction and we have little knowledge about its ecology. In order to gather essential information for species conservation and management, we made a study of seasonal flight activities in its natural environment. We sampled bees entering the nests with pollen, nectar/water and resin/mud, in five colonies during each season. In parallel, we analyzed the influence of hour of the day and meteorological factors on flight activity. Flights were most intense during spring and summer, with daily mean estimates of 2,100 and 2,333 flights respectively, while in fall and winter the daily flight estimate was reduced to 612 and 1,104 flights, respectively. Nectar and water were the most frequently-collected resources, followed by pollen and building materials. This preference occurred in all seasons, but with variations in intensity. During spring, daily flight activity lasted over 14 hours; this period was reduced in the other seasons, reaching eight hours in winter. Meteorological factors were associated with 40.2% of the variation in flight and resource collection activity. Apparently, other factors that we did not measure, such as colony needs and availability of floral resources, also strongly influence the intensity of resource collection.

Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva) and Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto) (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) in a sympatric area: seasonal and nocturnal hourly rhythm in black and white modified Shannon traps

Captures with black and white Shannon traps were undertaken to identify aspects of the behavior of the two cryptic and sympatric species implicated as vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis, Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto, 1926). The traps were installed side by side, monthly, from July 2001 to June 2002, from 18 to 07 hours, in a peridomicile of Iporanga municipality, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 2,142 specimens were captured, Ny. intermedia (47.4%) and Ny. neivai (50.5%). The white trap was more attractive to both sexes of both species. Males of Ny. neivai predominated (70%) over those of Ny. intermedia on the two traps; on the black trap, the females of Ny. intermedia predominated (63.3%) over those of Ny. neivai (36.7%). Seventy percent of the specimens of both species were captured between 18 and 24 h. Females of Ny. intermedia presented the highest peak at 19-20 h, and those of Ny. neivai at 20-21 h. The highest hourly average for females of Ny. intermedia on the black trap occurred in the winter and that for males in the summer. For Ny. neivai, both sexes predominated in the summer. The two species probably transmit the cutaneous leishmaniasis in the area due to their great predominance.

Seasonal activity of Dinoponera quadriceps Santschi (Formicidae, Ponerinae) in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil

Seasonal activity of Dinoponera quadriceps Santschi (Formicidae, Ponerinae) in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil. We studied seasonal foraging patterns of the queenless ant D. quadriceps (Formicidae, Ponerinae) for 24 months in a Caatinga area of northeastern Brazil, an ecosystem characterized by strong climatic changes throughout the year, in order to determine if regulation of worker activity is based on environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and/or food resources (potential prey: Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera, Orthoptera, Araneae, Chilopoda and Diplopoda). Foraging activity of D. quadriceps varied over the course of both years, with the highest frequency occurring from May to August, corresponding to the late rainy season and early dry season. This foraging activity was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with the availability of potential prey, but not with total abundance of soil arthropods or with rainfall and relative humidity. Diet composition, in relation to the main taxonomic prey groups, seems to be common to the species, regardless of habitat. Our results suggest that D. quadriceps workers adjust foraging activity to the most suitable period of the year, to avoid thermal stress and increase efficiency. Thus, they present an appropriate behavioral response to seasonal fluctuations in the Caatinga.