Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

O planeamento estratégico como instrumento de melhoria da comunicação organizacional interna

O planeamento estratégico é uma ferramenta usada pelas empresas, como forma de contribuir para a melhoria do seu desempenho, preconizando a concretização de objetivos. A comunicação organizacional interna é um o instrumento que, para além de traduzir uma mensagem enviada aos vários indivíduos da empresa, ajuda a interpretação dessa mensagem. Este estudo tem como objetivo perceber se, o planeamento estratégico pode ser um instrumento de melhoria conceptual e de gestão da comunicação organizacional interna. Neste trabalho utilizamos uma metodologia de estudo de caso único, suportada através do método qualitativo, com recurso a entrevistas, e do método quantitativo, através de questionários estruturados. As entrevistas aos quadros superiores da empresa foram realizadas com recuso a uma análise de conteúdo, verificando-se ser de extrema importância para a gestão, tanto o planeamento estratégico, como a comunicação interna. Os instrumentos de medida usados permitiram concluir que existem, ainda, algumas lacunas de planeamento e comunicação da empresa analisada. Da análise do caso em estudo é percetível que o planeamento estratégico, como a comunicação organizacional interna, são instrumentos usados com um nível de sucesso suficiente para colocar a empresa no rumo certo e estável de mercado. Por último, entendemos que no âmbito da conciliação dos dois temas, o planeamento estratégico facilita uma comunicação mais fluída, podendo, assim, ser um instrumento de melhoria da comunicação interna. Como limitações deste trabalho relatamos, em especial, a necessária precaução da generalização dos resultados obtidos e a dificuldade em realizar uma análise mais ampla na discussão de resultados, devido aos parcos trabalhos internacionais e, sobretudo, nacionais. A principal originalidade deste estudo decorre de ser utilizada uma análise com triangulação metodológica e o facto de a unidade de análise em estudo ser uma empresa líder na sua área de negócio e setor.

Evaluation of thermometers for ear temperature measurement at the wards in a university hospital

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Strategic Noise Mapping with GIS for the Universitat Jaume I Smart Campus: best methodology practices

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector: An empirical review of the impact of merger announcement on abnormal returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Portugal Telecom’s strategic partnership with Oi: The value creation potential

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Balanced scorecard como metodologia utilizada no planeamento estratégico de um laboratório de patologia clínica

RESUMO - O título do presente trabalho de projeto é: “Balanced Scorecard como metodologia utilizada no planeamento estratégico de um Laboratório de Patologia Clínica”. Atualmente a qualidade dos serviços prestados na área da saúde constitui uma questão que preocupa todos os stakeholders envolvidos. Neste âmbito, a escolha desta temática prende-se com a necessidade urgente de mudança no sentido de melhorar a performance do Laboratório de Patologia Clínica. Melhorar a qualidade dos serviços prestados garantindo a eficiência e sustentabilidade do serviço constitui a grande máxima de qualquer organização. Os objetivos deste trabalho de projeto são, entre outros: analisar as implicações da avaliação da qualidade de gestão utilizando o Balanced Scorecard como metodologia; destacar a importância do uso desta metodologia num Laboratório de Patologia Clínica no que diz respeito à melhoria da qualidade, da efetividade e da eficiência e apresentar uma proposta de aplicação desta metodologia a um serviço de Patologia Clínica. A filosofia do Balanced Scorecard assenta em 4 perspetivas, financeira, dos clientes, dos processos internos e a perspetiva crescimento e aprendizagem, que funcionam de forma integrada permitindo uma avaliação da qualidade de gestão. Em cada uma destas perspetivas são definidos objetivos e indicadores que têm de funcionar de forma integrada estabelecendo relações causa-efeito entre elas. Qualquer falha decorrente de objetivos não atingidos numa das perspetivas origina o desequilíbrio de todo o sistema desencadeando desvios no percurso estratégico, no cumprimento da missão e da visão da organização. A metodologia utilizada consiste essencialmente na recolha de dados resultantes da entrevista, pesquisa bibliográfica e análise documental do serviço de Patologia Clínica, que contribuíram para a elaboração de uma proposta de implementação. A aplicação de um sistema de medição da qualidade é essencial e a metodologia Balanced Scorecard pode constituir uma ferramenta fundamental neste sentido, facilitando a gestão de organizações de saúde.

Influence of Lean and Green on supply chain performance: an interpretive structural modelling model

This work aims to identify and rank a set of Lean and Green practices and supply chain performance measures on which managers should focus to achieve competitiveness and improve the performance of automotive supply chains. The identification of the contextual relationships among the suggested practices and measures, was performed through literature review. Their ranking was done by interviews with professionals from the automotive industry and academics with wide knowledge on the subject. The methodology of interpretive structural modelling (ISM) is a useful methodology to identify inter relationships among Lean and Green practices and supply chain performance measures and to support the evaluation of automotive supply chain performance. Using the ISM methodology, the variables under study were clustered according to their driving power and dependence power. The ISM methodology was proposed to be used in this work. The model intends to provide a better understanding of the variables that have more influence (driving variables), the others and those which are most influenced (dependent variables) by others. The information provided by this model is strategic for managers who can use it to identify which variables they should focus on in order to have competitive supply chains.

Corporate social reponsability strategic corporate social responsability: External and internal outcomes

This study investigates the importance and benefits of having a strategic Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program by testing the interrelationships between strategic CSR with three external (reputation, corporate image, and customer loyalty) and four internal (organizational commitment, job satisfaction, performance, and organizational deviance) variables. 269 clients and non-clients along with 190 employees and their direct supervisors completed the survey. Strategic CSR has shown to have a positive impact on all the variables studied with the exception of organizational deviance. Practical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Vancomycin monitoring in term newborns: comparison of peak and trough serum concentrations determined by high performance liquid chromatography and fluorescence polarization immunoassay

INTRODUCTION: Peak and trough serum concentrations of vancomycin were determined in term newborn infants with confirmed or suspected Staphylococcus sp sepsis by high performance liquid chromatography and flourescence polarization immunoassay. OBJECTIVE: To statistically compare the results of the high performance liquid chromatography and flourescence polarization immunoassay techniques for measuring serum vancomycin concentrations. METHODS: Eighteen peak and 20 trough serum samples were assayed for vancomycin concentrations using high performance liquid chromatography and flourescence polarization immunoassay from October 1995 to October 1997. RESULTS: The linear correlation coefficients for high performance liquid chromatography and flourescence polarization immunoassay were 0.27 (peak, P = 0.110) and 0.26 (trough, P = 0.1045) respectively, which were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: There was wide variation in serum vancomycin concentrations determined by high performance liquid chromatography as compared with those determined by flourescence polarization immunoassay. There was no recognizable pattern in the variability; in an apparently random fashion, the high performance liquid chromatography measurement was sometimes substantially higher than the flourescence polarization immunoassay measurement, and at other times it was substantially lower.

High performance electromechanical actuators based on ionic liquid/poly(vinylidene fluoride)

Due to the increasing need of low voltage actuators, independent from electrochemical processes, electroactive actuators based on poly(vinylidene fluoride) composites with 10, 25 and 40 % of 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, [C2mim] [NTf2], ionic liquid are prepared by solvent casting and melting. We show that the charge structure of [C2mim] [NTf2] induces the complete piezoelectric -phase crystallization of the PVDF within the composite and decreases its crystallinity fraction significantly. [C2mim] [NTf2] also works as a plasticizer of PVDF, reducing the elastic modulus down to 12 % of the initial value. Moreover, the composites show significant displacement and bending under applied voltages of 2, 5 and 10 Vpp. The displacement and bending of the composite membranes are also evaluated as a function of [C2mim] [NTf2] content and sample thickness. Increasing amounts of ionic liquid result in larger deformations independently of the applied voltage.

Effect of the degree of porosity on the performance of poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene)/poly(ethylene oxide) blend membranes for lithium-ion battery separators

Porous polymer membranes based on poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene)/poly(ethylene oxide) copolymers, P(VDF-TrFE)/PEO, are prepared through the, from partial to total, elimination of PEO, leading to interconnected micropores in the polymer blends. Electrolyte uptake, thermal and mechanical properties depend on the amount of PEO present in the polymer blend. Further, the degree of crystallinity of PEO and the elastic modulus (E´) of the polymer blend decrease with increasing PEO removal. Electrical properties of the polymer blend membranes are influenced by the porosity and are dominated by diffusion. The temperature dependence of ionic conductivity follows the Arrhenius behavior. It is the highest for the membranes with a volume fraction of pores of 44% (i.e, 90% PEO removal), reaching a value of 0.54 mS.cm-1 at room temperature. Battery performance was determined by assembling Li/C-LiFePO4 swagelok cells. The polymer blends with 90% PEO removal exhibit rate (124 mAhg-1 at C/5 and 47 mAhg-1 at 2C) and cycling capabilities suitable for lithium ion battery applications.

Modeling separator membranes physical characteristics for optimized lithium ion battery performance

The effect of varying separator membrane physical parameters such as degree of porosity, tortuosity and thickness, on battery delivered capacity was studied in order to optimize performance of lithium-ion batteries. This was achieved by a theoretical mathematical model relating the Bruggeman coefficient with the degree of porosity and tortuosity. The inclusion of the separator membrane in the simulation model of the battery system does not affect the delivered capacity of the battery. The ionic conductivity of the separator and consequently the delivered capacity values obtained at different discharge rates depends on the value of the Bruggeman coefficient, which is related with the degree of porosity and tortuosity of the membrane. Independently of scan rate, the optimal value of the degree of porosity is above 50% and the separator thickness should range between 1 μm at 32 μm for improved battery performance.

Energy harvesting performance of BaTiO3/poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene) spin coated nanocomposites

The energy harvesting efficiency of poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene) spin coated films and its nanocomposites with piezoelectric BaTiO3 have been investigated as a function of ceramic filler size and content. It is found that the best energy harvesting performance of ~0.28 W is obtained for the nanocomposite samples with 20% filler content of 10 nm size particles and for 5% filler content for the 100 and 500 nm size fillers. For the larger filler average sizes, the power decreases for filler contents above 5% due to increase of the mechanical stiffness of the samples. Due to the similar dielectric characteristics of the samples, the performance is mainly governed by the mechanical response. The obtained power values, easy processing and the low cost and robustness of the polymer, allow the implementation of the material for micro and nanogenerator applications.

Effect of ionic liquid anion type in the performance of solid polymer electrolytes based on Poly(Vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene)

The effect of different anions within the ionic liquid in the characteristics of solid polymer electrolytes (SPEs) based on P(VDF-TrFE) has been investigated. 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate, [C2mim][OAc], 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium triflate, [C2mim][(CF3SO3)3], 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium lactate, [C2mim][Lactate], 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium thiocyanate, [C2mim][SNC] and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium hydrogen sulphate [C2mim][HSO4] have been used in SPE prepared by thermally induced phase separation (TIPS). The polymer phase, thermal and electrochemical properties of the SPE have been determined. The thermal and electrical properties of the SPEs strongly depend on the selected IL, as determined by their different interactions with the polymer matrix. The room temperature ionic conductivity increases in the following way for the different anions: [SNC] > [CF3SO3)3] > [HSO4] > [Lactate] > [OAc], which is mainly dependent on the viscosity of the ionic liquid.