Introduccion a la vida devota de San Francisco de Sales ...

Contiene: Tabla de los capitulos, p. [7]-[9]

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Dissertacion Historica I : que excluye la existencia de monges Basilios en el antiguo Venerable Santuario de el Santo Sepulcro de Valencia contra las noticias falsas ... del Dr. Agustín Sales, en el cap. IV de las Memorias del mismo Santo Sepulcro

Contiene: Dissertacion historica II: que demuystra aver cursado el Patriarca Santo Domingo los estudios de artes, y de theologia en la ciudad de Palencia ... Obispado, y escritos de Idacio Galiciano el Historico ...

Increasing the Intelligence of Virtual Sales Assistants through Knowledge Modeling Techniques

Shopping agents are web-based applications that help consumers to find appropriate products in the context of e-commerce. In this paper we argue about the utility of advanced model-based techniques that recently have been proposed in the fields of Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Engineering, in order to increase the level of support provided by this type of applications. We illustrate this approach with a virtual sales assistant that dynamically configures a product according to the needs and preferences of customers.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Demonstracion legal, de los motiuos, que precisaron al ... señor D. Manuel Salvador y del Olmo ... por el ... señor Don Ascensio Sales, Obispo de Barcelona ..., a declarar y mandar publicar incursa en las censuras a la ..

Contiene: Epitome de los motiuos juridicos que assistieron a la Curia Eclesiastica de Barcelona para resistirse a firmar la contencion que le propuso la Real Audiencia a instancia de la ... abadesa de S. Pedro de las Puellas de la misma ciudad

Dissertacion Historica I : que excluye la existencia de monges Basilios en el antiguo Venerable Santuario de el Santo Sepulcro de Valencia contra las noticias falsas ... del Dr. Agustín Sales, en el Cap. IV de las Memorias del mismo Santo Sepulcro

Contiene : Dissertacion historica II: que demuestra aver cursado el Patriarca Santo Domingo los estudios de artes, y de theologia en la ciudad de Palencia ... Obispado, y escritos de Idacio Galiciano el Historico ... ; Dissertacion III : curiosa, sobre la patria, obispado, y escritos de Idacio Galiciano el Hitorico ..

Improving photovoltaics grid integration through short time forecasting and self-consumption

The uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation is a major drawback for the widespread introduction of this technology into electricity grids. This uncertainty is a challenge in the design and operation of electrical systems that include photovoltaic generation. Demand-Side Management (DSM) techniques are widely used to modify energy consumption. If local photovoltaic generation is available, DSM techniques can use generation forecast to schedule the local consumption. On the other hand, local storage systems can be used to separate electricity availability from instantaneous generation; therefore, the effects of forecast error in the electrical system are reduced. The effects of uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation in a residential electrical system equipped with DSM techniques and a local storage system are analyzed in this paper. The study has been performed in a solar house that is able to displace a residential user?s load pattern, manage local storage and estimate forecasts of electricity generation. A series of real experiments and simulations have carried out on the house. The results of this experiments show that the use of Demand Side Management (DSM) and local storage reduces to 2% the uncertainty on the energy exchanged with the grid. In the case that the photovoltaic system would operate as a pure electricity generator feeding all generated electricity into grid, the uncertainty would raise to around 40%.

A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Sn. Francisco de Sales [Material gráfico]

Inscripción enla parte inferior derecha: "115"

Unit Commitment and Electricity Prices Forecasting for Market Strategy Preparation in Interconnected Systems

In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

Marketing and Sales organization in a “Brand-Focused Professional” multinational

This article tests a multidimensional model of the marketing and sales organizational interface, based on a previous one tested for European companies (Homburg et al., 2008), in a specific taxonomical configuration: a brand focused professional multinational, in three successful Latin American branches. Factor reliability and hypotheses were studied through a confirmatory factor analysis. Results show the existence of a positive relationship between formalization, joint planning, teamwork, information sharing, trust and interface quality. Interface quality and business performance show also a positive relationship. This empirical study contributes to the knowledge of the organizational enhancement of interactions in emerging markets

Estudio teórico-experimental sobre el deterioro en tableros de puentes de hormigón producido por la acción del hielo-deshielo con sales de fundentes

El deterioro del hormigón por ciclos de hielo-deshielo en presencia de sales fundentes es causa frecuente de problemas en los puentes e infraestructuras existentes en los países europeos. Los daños producidos por los ciclos de hielo-deshielo en el hormigón pueden ser internos, fundamentalmente la fisuración y/o externos como el descascarillamiento (desgaste superficial). La España peninsular presenta unas características geográficas y climáticas particulares. El 18% de la superficie tiene una altura superior a 1000mts y, además, la altura media geográfica con respecto al nivel del mar es de 660mts (siendo el segundo país más montañoso de toda Europa).Esto hace que la Red de Carreteras del Estado se vea afectada, durante determinados periodos, por fenómenos meteorológicos adversos, en particular por nevadas y heladas, que pueden comprometer las condiciones de vialidad para la circulación de vehículos. Por este motivo la Dirección General de Carreteras realiza trabajos anualmente (campañas de vialidad invernal, de 6 meses de duración) para el mantenimiento de la vialidad de las carreteras cuando éstas se ven afectadas por estos fenómenos. Existen protocolos y planes operativos que permiten sistematizar estos trabajos de mantenimiento que, además, se han intensificado en los últimos 10 años, y que se fundamentan en el empleo de sales fundentes, principalmente NaCl, con la misión de que no haya placas de hielo, ni nieve, en las carreteras. En zonas de fuerte oscilación térmica, que con frecuencia en España se localizan en la zona central del Pirineo, parte de la cornisa Cantábrica y Sistema Central, se producen importantes deterioros en las estructuras y paramentos de hormigón producidos por los ciclos de hielo- deshielo. Pero además el uso de fundentes de vialidad invernal acelera en gran medida la evolución de estos daños. Los tableros de hormigón de puentes de carretera de unos 40-50 años de antigüedad carecen, en general, de un sistema de impermeabilización, y están formados frecuentemente por un firme de mezcla asfáltica, una emulsión adherente y el hormigón de la losa. En la presente tesis se realiza una investigación que pretende reproducir en laboratorio los procesos que tienen lugar en el hormigón de tableros de puentes existentes de carreteras, de unos 40-50 años de antigüedad, que están expuestos durante largos periodos a sales fundentes, con objeto de facilitar la vialidad invernal, y a cambios drásticos de temperatura (hielo y deshielo). Por ello se realizaron cuatro campañas de investigación, teniendo en cuenta que, si bien nos basamos en la norma europea UNE-CEN/TS 12390-9 “Ensayos de hormigón endurecido. Resistencia al hielo-deshielo. Pérdida de masa”, se fabricaron probetas no estandarizadas para este ensayo, pensado en realidad para determinar la afección de los ciclos únicamente a la pérdida de masa. Las dimensiones de las probetas en nuestro caso fueron 150x300 mm, 75 x 150mm (cilíndricas normalizadas para roturas a compresión según la norma UNE-EN 12390-3) y 286x76x76 (prismáticas normalizadas para estudiar cambio de volumen según la norma ASTM C157), lo cual nos permitió realizar sobre las mismas probetas más ensayos, según se presentan en la tesis y, sobre todo, poder comparar los resultados con probetas extraídas de dimensiones similares en puentes existentes. En la primera campaña, por aplicación de la citada norma, se realizaron ciclos de H/D, con y sin contacto con sales de deshielo (NaCl en disolución del 3% según establece dicha norma). El hormigón fabricado en laboratorio, tratando de simular el de losas de tableros de puentes antiguos, presentó una fc de 22,6 MPa y relación agua/cemento de 0,65. Las probetas de hormigón fabricadas se sometieron a ciclos agresivos de hielo/deshielo (H/D), empleando una temperatura máxima de +20ºC y una temperatura mínima de -20ºC al objeto de poder determinar la sensibilidad de este ensayo tanto al tipo de hormigón elaborado como al tipo de probeta fabricado (cilíndrica y prismática). Esta campaña tuvo una segunda fase para profundizar más en el comportamiento de las probetas sometidas a ciclos H/D en presencia de sales. En la segunda campaña, realizada sobre probetas de hormigón fabricadas en laboratorio iguales a las anteriores, la temperaturas mínima del ensayo se subió a -14ºC, lo que nos permitió analizar el proceso de deterioro con más detalle. (Realizando una serie de ensayos de caracterización no destructivos y otros destructivos, y validando su aplicación a la detección de los deterioros causados tras los ensayos acelerados de hielodeshielo. También mediante aplicación de técnicas de microscopía electrónica.) La tercera campaña, se realizó sobre probetas de hormigón de laboratorio similares a las anteriores, fc de 29,3Mpa y relación a/c de 0,65, en las que se aplicó en una cara un revestimiento asfáltico de 2-4cms, según fueran prismáticas y cilíndricas respectivamente, compuesto por una mezcla asfáltica real (AC16), sobre una imprimación bituminosa. (Para simular el nivel de impermeabilización que produce un firme sobre el tablero de un puente) La cuarta campaña, se desarrolló tras una cuidadosa selección de dos puentes de hormigón de 40-50 años de antigüedad, expuestos y sensibles a deterioros de hielodeshielo, y en carreteras con aportación de fundentes. Una vez esto se extrajeron testigos de hormigón de zonas sanas (nervios del tablero), para realizar en laboratorio los mismos ensayos acelerados de hielo-deshielo y de caracterización, de la segunda campaña, basados en la misma norma. De los resultados obtenidos se concluye que cuando se emplean sales fundentes se acelera de forma significativa el deterioro, aumentando tanto el contenido de agua en los poros como el gradiente generado (mecanismo de deterioro físico). Las sales de deshielo aceleran claramente la aparición del daño, que se incrementa incluso en un factor de 5 según se constata en esta investigación para los hormigones ensayados. Pero además se produce un gradiente de cloruros que se ha detectado tanto en los hormigones diseñados en laboratorio como en los extraídos de puentes existentes. En casi todos los casos han aparecido cambios en la microestructura de la pasta de cemento (mecanismo de deterioro químico), confirmándose la formación de un compuesto en el gel CSH de la pasta de cemento, del tipo Ca2SiO3Cl2, que posiblemente está contribuyendo a la alteración de la pasta y a la aceleración de los daños en presencia de sales fundentes. Existe un periodo entre la aparición de fisuración y la pérdida de masa. Las fisuras progresan rápidamente desde la interfase de los áridos más pequeños y angulosos, facilitando así el deterioro del hormigón. Se puede deducir así que el tipo de árido afecta al deterioro. En el caso de los testigos con recubrimiento asfáltico, parece haberse demostrado que la precipitación de sales genera tensiones en las zonas de hormigón cercanas al recubrimiento, que terminan por fisurar el material. Y se constata que el mecanimo de deterioro químico, probablemente tenga más repercusión que el físico, por cuanto el recubrimiento asfáltico es capaz de retener suficiente agua, como para que el gradiente de contenido de agua en el hormigón sea mucho menor que sin el recubrimiento. Se constató, sin embargo, la importancia del gradiente de cloruros en el hormigon. Por lo que se deduce que si bien el recubrimiento asfáltico es ciertamente protector frente a los ciclos H/D, su protección disminuye en presencia de sales; es decir, los cloruros acabarán afectando al hormigón del tablero del puente. Finalmente, entre los hormigones recientes y los antiguos extraídos de puentes reales, se observa que existen diferencias significativas en cuanto a la resistencia a los ciclos H/D entre ellos. Los hormigones más recientes resultan, a igualdad de propiedades, más resistentes tanto a ciclos de H/D en agua como en sales. Posiblemente el hecho de que los hormigones de los puentes hayan estado expuestos a condiciones de temperaturas extremas durante largos periodos de tiempo les ha sensibilizado. La tesis realizada, junto con nuevos contrastes que se realicen en el futuro, nos permitirá implementar una metodología basada en la extracción de testigos de tableros de puente reales para someterlos a ensayos de hielo-deshielo, basados en la norma europea UNECEN/ TS 12390-9 aunque con probetas no normalizadas para el mismo, y, a su vez, realizar sobre estas probetas otros ensayos de caracterización destructivos, que posibilitarán evaluar los daños ocasionados por este fenómeno y su evolución temporal, para actuar consecuentemente priorizando intervenciones de impermeabilización y reparación en el parque de puentes de la RCE. Incluso será posible la elaboración de mapas de riesgo, en función de las zonas de climatología más desfavorable y de los tratamientos de vialidad invernal que se lleven a cabo. Concrete damage by freeze-thaw cycles in the presence of melting salts frequently causes problems on bridges and infrastructures in European countries. Damage caused by freeze-thaw cycles in the concrete can be internal, essentially cracking and / or external as flaking (surface weathering due to environmental action). The peninsular Spain presents specific climatic and geographical characteristics. 18% of the surface has a height greater than 1,000 m and the geographical average height from the sea level is 660 m (being the second most mountainous country in Europe). This makes the National Road Network affected during certain periods due to adverse weather, particularly snow and ice, which can compromise road conditions for vehicular traffic. For this reason the National Road Authority performs works annually (Winter Road Campaign, along 6 months) to maintain the viability of the roads when they are affected by these phenomena. There are protocols and operational plans that allow systematize these maintenance jobs, that also have intensified in the last 10 years, and which are based on the use of deicing salts, mainly NaCl, with the mission that no ice sheets, or snow appear on the roads. In areas of strong thermal cycling, which in Spain are located in the central area of the Pyrenees, part of the Cantabrian coast and Central System, significant deterioration take place in the structures and wall surfaces of concrete due to freeze-thaw. But also the use of deicing salts for winter maintenance greatly accelerated the development of such damages. The concrete decks for road bridges about 40-50 years old, lack generally a waterproofing system, and are often formed by a pavement of asphalt, an adhesive emulsion and concrete slab. In this thesis the research going on aims to reproduce in the laboratory the processes taking place in the concrete of an existing deck at road bridges, about 40-50 years old, they are exposed for long periods to icing salt, to be performed in order to facilitate winter maintenance, and drastic temperature changes (freezing and thawing). Therefore four campaigns of research were conducted, considering that while we rely on the European standard UNE-CEN/TS 12390-9 "Testing hardened concrete. Freezethaw resistance. Mass loss", nonstandard specimens were fabricated for this test, actually conceived to determine the affection of the cycles only to the mass loss. Dimensions of the samples were in our case 150x300 mm, 75 x 150mm (standard cylindrical specimens for compression fractures UNE-EN 12390-3) and 286x76x76 (standard prismatic specimens to study volume change ASTM C157), which allowed us to carry on same samples more trials, as presented in the thesis, and especially to compare the results with similar sized samples taken from real bridges. In the first campaign, by application of that European standard, freeze-thaw cycles, with and without contact with deicing salt (NaCl 3% solution in compliance with such standard) were performed. Concrete made in the laboratory, trying to simulate the old bridges, provided a compressive strength of 22.6 MPa and water/cement ratio of 0.65. In this activity, the concrete specimens produced were subjected to aggressive freeze/thaw using a maximum temperature of +20ºC and a minimum temperature of - 20°C in order to be able to determine the sensitivity of this test to the concrete and specimens fabricated. This campaign had a second phase to go deeper into the behavior of the specimens subjected to cycled freeze/thaw in the presence of salts. In the second campaign, conducted on similar concrete specimens manufactured in laboratory, temperatures of +20ºC and -14ºC were used in the tests, which allowed us to analyze the deterioration process in more detail (performing a series of non-destructive testing and other destructive characterization, validating its application to the detection of the damage caused after the accelerated freeze-thaw tests, and also by applying electron microscopy techniques). The third campaign was conducted on concrete specimens similar to the above manufactured in laboratory, both cylindrical and prismatic, which was applied on one side a 4 cm asphalt coating, consisting of a real asphalt mixture, on a bituminous primer (for simulate the level of waterproofing that produces a pavement on the bridge deck). The fourth campaign was developed after careful selection of two concrete bridges 40- 50 years old, exposed and sensitive to freeze-thaw damage, in roads with input of melting salts. Concrete cores were extracted from healthy areas, for the same accelerated laboratory freeze-thaw testing and characterization made for the second campaign, based on the same standard. From the results obtained it is concluded that when melting salts are employed deterioration accelerates significantly, thus increasing the water content in the pores, as the gradient. Besides, chloride gradient was detected both in the concrete designed in the laboratory and in the extracted in existing bridges. In all cases there have been changes in the microstructure of the cement paste, confirming the formation of a compound gel CSH of the cement paste, Ca2SiO3Cl2 type, which is possibly contributing to impair the cement paste and accelerating the damage in the presence of melting salts. The detailed study has demonstrated that the formation of new compounds can cause porosity at certain times of the cycles may decrease, paradoxically, as the new compound fills the pores, although this phenomenon does not stop the deterioration mechanism and impairments increase with the number of cycles. There is a period between the occurrence of cracking and mass loss. Cracks progress rapidly from the interface of the smallest and angular aggregate, thus facilitating the deterioration of concrete. It can be deduced so the aggregate type affects the deterioration. The presence of melting salts in the system clearly accelerates the onset of damage, which increases even by a factor of 5 as can be seen in this investigation for concrete tested. In the case of specimens with asphalt coating, it seems to have demonstrated that the precipitation of salts generate tensions in the areas close to the concrete coating that end up cracking the material. It follows that while the asphalt coating is certainly a protection against the freeze/thaw cycles, this protection decreases in the presence of salts; so the chlorides will finally affect the concrete bridge deck. Finally, among the recent concrete specimens and the old ones extracted from real bridges, it is observed that the mechanical strengths are very similar to each other, as well as the porosity values and the accumulation capacity after pore water saturation. However, there are significant differences in resistance to freeze/thaw cycles between them. More recent concrete are at equal properties more resistant both cycles freeze/thaw in water with or without salts. Possibly the fact that concrete bridges have been exposed to extreme temperatures for long periods of time has sensitized them. The study, along with new contrasts that occur in the future, allow us to implement a methodology based on the extraction of cores from the deck of real bridges for submission to freeze-thaw tests based on the European standard UNE-CEN/TS 12390-9 even with non-standard specimens for it, and in turn, performed on these samples other destructive characterization tests, which will enable to assess the damage caused by this phenomenon and its evolution, to act rightly prioritizing interventions improving the waterproofing and other repairs in the bridge stock of the National Road Network. It will even be possible to develop risk maps, depending on the worst weather areas and winter road treatments to be carried out.

Meios consensuais de solução de conflitos : instrumentos de democracia / Lilia Maia de Morais Sales e Cilana de Morais Soares Rabelo.

Inclui notas explicativas, bibliográficas e bibliografia.