Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

The cost-effectiveness of routine follow-up after primary total hip arthroplasty

Routine postsurgery assessment of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) is recommended in many countries. Whether the benefits of this activity are justified by the costs is not known. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of 3 different follow-up strategies after primary THA. If there is no routine follow-up of patients for 7 years after primary THA, there would be cost savings between AU$6.5 and $11.9 million and gains of between 1.8 and 8.8 quality-adjusted life years. Policy makers should investigate less resource-intensive alternatives to common routine postsurgical assessment.

Determinants of knowledge transfer and learning in hybrid public private alliances

This paper uses the case study of a hybrid public-private strategic alliance as data to complement and contrast with the traditional views on knowledge transfer and learning between alliance partners. In particular, the paper explores whether the concept of competitive collaboration conceptualized by Hamel (1991) in his seminal work holds true for all forms of strategic alliances. Conceptualizing the knowledge boundaries of organisations in alliances as a ‘collaborative membrane’, we focus attention on the permeability of these boundaries rather than the actual location of the boundaries. In this vein, we present a case study of a major public sector organization that illustrates how these principles have allowed it to start rebuilding its internal capabilities adopting a more collaborative stance and ensuring their knowledge boundaries are highly porous as they move more major projects into hybrid public private alliance contracts.

Engaging, enraging public relations and the role of the other

The intention of this paper is to further the discussion around the development of theories of public relations by introducing to the mix the concept of the Other from the field of cultural studies. The development of discipline-specific theories as part of a “scholarly body of knowledge” (Wylie, 1994, p.2) – or at least a “unique” knowledge base (Parkinson, 2001) – has been suggested as one of the defining characteristics of a true profession. In the case of public relations, this is a development that has occurred relatively recently. Since public relations first began to emerge as a distinct practice in the early part of the 20th century, there has been a tendency to appropriate theories from other areas (such as organisational and media studies) to create a relevant theory base to explore, describe and predict public relations activities. However, these theories were often rarely more than a ‘best fit’ solution, and resulting areas of discrepancy led to much confusion surrounding the form and function of public relations. It could be argued therefore that the development of dedicated public relations theory – ideas that encompass the creation, maintenance and enhancement of relationships between organisations and publics as primary motivations – only began in the latter half of the 20th century with the work of people such as Grunig and Hunt, and latterly Ledingham and Bruning among others.

Analysing the internationalisation readiness of firms

The internationalisation of firms has gained much research attention since the 1970s. However, the behavioural aspect of firms’ during their pre-internationalisation phase has not been sufficiently explored. This research proposes that a pre-internationalisation focus would not only offer an additional perspective to the study of firm internationalisation but would also address the significant research gap in studies that are theoretically based around the Uppsala Model. This study views the development of a firm from its pre-internationalisation phase into an international firm in accordance with the Uppsala Model’s ‘state’ to ‘change’ aspect transition, with ‘internationalisation readiness’ established as the missing link between these two aspects. During the pre-internationalisation phase, a firm is exposed to a wide variety of internal and external stimuli that triggers an impulse for foreign market expansion. The perception of these stimuli and the attitudinal commitment taken by the firm’s decision-makers, as well as the firm’s resource capabilities and the moderating effect of lateral rigidity, are influential towards an internationalisation decision. This paper argues the significance of adopting the pre-internationalisation phase as a research platform and the importance of analysing firms’ internationalisation readiness. A method is proposed for the development of an Internationalisation Readiness Index that could be used for measuring a firm’s propensity to commence its first export operation.

Workflow simulation for operational decision support

Simulation is widely used as a tool for analyzing business processes but is mostly focused on examining abstract steady-state situations. Such analyses are helpful for the initial design of a business process but are less suitable for operational decision making and continuous improvement. Here we describe a simulation system for operational decision support in the context of workflow management. To do this we exploit not only the workflow’s design, but also use logged data describing the system’s observed historic behavior, and incorporate information extracted about the current state of the workflow. Making use of actual data capturing the current state and historic information allows our simulations to accurately predict potential near-future behaviors for different scenarios. The approach is supported by a practical toolset which combines and extends the workflow management system YAWL and the process mining framework ProM.

Conceptualising value creation for social change management

Australian and international governments are increasingly adopting social marketing as a social change management tool to deal with complex social problems. Government decision makers typically need to balance the use of business models and management theories whilst maintaining the integrity of government policy. In taking this approach, decision makers experience management tensions between a social mission to equitably deliver social services and the accountability and affordability of providing quality social and health services to citizens. This is a significant challenge as the nature of the ‘social product’ in government is often more service-oriented than goods-based. In this paper the authors examine value creation in government social marketing services. The contribution of this paper is a value creation process model, which considers the nature of governments to create social good. This is particularly important for governments where consumers still expect value and quality in the service delivered, despite that offering being ‘free’.

Membership retention within the sporting industry : factors affecting relationship dissolution

Relationship dissolution has been somewhat ignored in the study of relationship marketing paradigm. While there has been an abundance of literature giving broad conceptualizations on how to master the intricacies of relationships, very little has discussed the concept of relationship dissolution. This is especially true of the sporting industry, which does not yet understand the factors that contribute to members relinquishing their membership and severing relationship ties with the club. Team performance was found to be the most powerful predictor of relationship dissolution; however, both satisfaction with the sportscape and emotional bonds had a significant influence on the decision for a member not to renew their membership. Although team performance is mostly out of the hands of sport marketers, greater focus should be given to implementing strategies that enhance the emotional aspects of the club-member relationship while also improving aspects of the service facility.

Knowledge sharing : enablers and constraints in and Australian public sector organisation

Is the environment more arduous for knowledge sharing in a public sector organisation? The organising principles, operations, internal environment and power relations of public sector organisations exhibit distinctive characteristics in a range of dimensions which differ from corporate sector organisations (Moynihan & Pandey, 2007). This paper discusses the findings of a study that explored the impact on knowledge sharing of environmental and relational issues in a public sector organisation. Individual knowledge sharing orientation and behaviour was found to be profoundly influenced by factors in the macro-level environment, locally constructed practices, and workers’ perceptions of their relations with the organisation and their colleagues. Key words: knowledge management, public sector, knowledge sharing

Economic issues in funding and supplying public sector information

In May 2005, a research team began to investigate whether designing and implementing a whole-of-government information licensing framework was possible. This framework was needed to administer copyright in relation to information produced by the government and to deal properly with privately-owned copyright on which government works often rely. The outcome so far is the design of the Government Information Licensing Framework (GILF) and its gradual uptake within a number of Commonwealth and State government agencies. However, licensing is part of a larger issue in managing public sector information (PSI); and it has important parallels with the management of libraries and public archives. Among other things, managing the retention and supply of PSI requires an ability to search and locate information, ability to give public access to the information legally, and an ability to administer charges for supplying information wherever it is required by law. The aim here is to provide a summary overview of pricing principles as they relate to the supply of PSI.

Cross-cultural differences in self-reported decision-making style and confidence

The Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, Burnett, Radford, & Ford, 1997) measures selfreported decision-making coping patterns. The questionnaire was administered to samples of University students in the US (N = 475), Australia (N = 262), New Zealand (N = 260), Japan (N = 359), Hong Kong (N = 281), and Taiwan (N = 414). As predicted, students from the three Western, individualistic cultures (US, Australia, and New Zealand) were more con® dent of their decision-making ability than students from the three East Asian, group-oriented cultures (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan). No cross-cultural differences were found in scores on decision vigilance (a careful decision-making style). However, compared with Western students, the Asian students tended to score higher on buck-passing and procrastination (avoidant styles of decision making) as well as hypervigilance (a panicky style of decision making). Japanese students scored lowest on decision self-esteem and highest on procrastination and hypervigilance. It was argued that the con¯ ict model and its attendant coping patterns is relevant for describing and comparing decision making in both Western and Asian cultures.

The Melbourne Decision-Making Questionnaire : an instrument for measuring patterns for coping with decisional conflict

A study was conducted to examine the factorial validity of the Flinders Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, 1982), a 31-item self-report inventory designed to measure tendencies to use three major coping patterns identified in the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977): vigilance, hypervigilance, and defensive avoidance (procrastination, buck-passing, and rationalization). A sample of 2051 university students, comprising samples from Australia (n=262), New Zealand (n=260), the USA (n=475), Japan (n=359), Hong Kong (n=281) and Taiwan (n=414) was administered the DMQ. Factorial validity of the instrument was tested by confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL. Five different substantive models, representing different structural relationships between the decision-coping patterns had unsatisfactory fit to the data and could not be validated. A shortened instrument, containing 22 items, yielded a revised model comprising four identifiable factors-vigilance, hypervigilance, buck-passing, and procrastination. The revised model had adequate fit with data for each country sample and for the total sample, and was confirmed. It is recommended that the 22-item instrument, named the Melbourne DMQ, replace the Flinders DMQ for measurement of decision-coping patterns.

Incorporating an economic model in the health impact assessment approach

The current policy decision making in Australia regarding non-health public investments (for example, transport/housing/social welfare programmes) does not quantify health benefits and costs systematically. To address this knowledge gap, this study proposes an economic model for quantifying health impacts of public policies in terms of dollar value. The intention is to enable policy-makers in conducting economic evaluation of health effects of non-health policies and in implementing policies those reduce health inequalities as well as enhance positive health gains of the target population. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides an appropriate framework for this study since HIA assesses the beneficial and adverse effects of a programme/policy on public health and on health inequalities through the distribution of those effects. However, HIA usually tries to influence the decision making process using its scientific findings, mostly epidemiological and toxicological evidence. In reality, this evidence can not establish causal links between policy and health impacts since it can not explain how an individual or a community reacts to changing circumstances. The proposed economic model addresses this health-policy linkage using a consumer choice approach that can explain changes in group and individual behaviour in a given economic set up. The economic model suggested in this paper links epidemiological findings with economic analysis to estimate the health costs and benefits of public investment policies. That is, estimating dollar impacts when health status of the exposed population group changes by public programmes – for example, transport initiatives to reduce congestion by building new roads/ highways/ tunnels etc. or by imposing congestion taxes. For policy evaluation purposes, the model is incorporated in the HIA framework by establishing association among identified factors, which drive changes in the behaviour of target population group and in turn, in the health outcomes. The economic variables identified to estimate the health inequality and health costs are levels of income, unemployment, education, age groups, disadvantaged population groups, mortality/morbidity etc. However, though the model validation using case studies and/or available database from Australian non-health policy (say, transport) arena is in the future tasks agenda, it is beyond the scope of this current paper.

Decision-making style and self-concept

The Flinders Decision-Making Questionnaire (FDMQ) (Mann, 1982), which measures three decision-making styles and decision-making self-esteem, and the Self-Description Questionnaire III (SDQ HI) (Marsh & O'Neill, 1984), which measures 13 facets of self-concept; were administered to 475 university students to investigate some of the tenets of Janis and Mann's (1976, 1977) conflict model of decision-making and to further investigate the influence of self-concept on decision-making behaviours. The findings empirically validated Janis and Mann's (1977) link between decision-making self-esteem and decision-making style. Modest relationships, in the predicted direction, were found between decision-making self-esteem and the three decision-making styles (Vigilance, Defensive Avoidance, and Hypervigilance). In addition, specific facets of self-concept (General, Verbal, Academic, Honesty/Reliability and Problem-Solving Self Concepts) were related to self-reported decision-making behaviours.

Validation of the Flinders decision : making questionnaire in course decision making by students

The Flinders Decision Making Questionnaire (DMQ; Mann, 1982) was designed to measure decision making coping patterns identified by Janis and Mann (1977). The validity of four DMQ Scales (vigilance, defensive avoidance, hypervigilance, and decision self-esteem) were tested as predictors of students' course and career decision making. Students administered the DMQ scales were also measured on independence of choice, satisfaction, and planfulness relating to their university course and on planfulness and options relating to their future employment. Two samples were studied. In study 1, 40 students residing in a university college were the subjects. In Study 2, 42 second-year students who completed the DMQ one year earlier constituted the subjects. Modest but significant correlations were found in both samples between DMQ scores and measures of course and career decision making. The findings lend support to the validity of the DMQ as an instrument for measuring decision making behaviour.