884 resultados para probabilistic risk assessment
Resumo:
To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.
Resumo:
Quantification of dermal exposure to pesticides in rural workers, used in risk assessment, can be performed with different techniques such as patches or whole body evaluation. However, the wide variety of methods can jeopardize the process by producing disparate results, depending on the principles in sample collection. A critical review was thus performed on the main techniques for quantifying dermal exposure, calling attention to this issue and the need to establish a single methodology for quantification of dermal exposure in rural workers. Such harmonization of different techniques should help achieve safer and healthier working conditions. Techniques that can provide reliable exposure data are an essential first step towards avoiding harm to workers' health.
Resumo:
To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010. A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications. The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women. The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome. Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death). Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.
Resumo:
This paper reports manganese (Mn) fractionation in samples collected from the water column and sediments in an environmental protection area in the Alto do Paranapanema Basin (Sao Paulo State, Brazil). The three locations studied showed equivalent Mn levels, with moderate seasonal differences (p < 0.05). The sediment samples contained five Mn species (p < 0.05): iron and manganese (hydr)oxides > Mn bound to carbonates approximate to exchangeable Mn approximate to Mn bound to silicates > Mn bound to organic matter (p < 0.05). The water samples contained three species (p < 0.05): particulate Mn > labile Mn approximate to non-labile Mn. The data suggest that Mn has a natural origin (Enrichment Factor EF < 2; Geoaccumulation Index I(geo) < 0) and moderate environmental risk (Risk Assessment Code RAC similar to 30%). At the same time, under certain conditions some manganese species could be present in a state of equilibrium between the water column and sediment. These results could provide a basis for Mn management in the Alto do Paranapanema Basin.
Resumo:
This work describes the coupling of a biomimetic sensor to a flow injection system for the sensitive determination of paracetamol. The sensor was prepared as previously described in the literature (M. D. P. T. Sotomayor, A. Sigoli, M. R. V. Lanza, A. A. Tanaka and L. T. Kubota, J. Braz. Chem. Soc., 2008, 19, 734) by modifying a glassy carbon electrode surface with a Nafion (R) membrane doped with iron tetrapyridinoporphyrazine (FeTPyPz), a biomimetic catalyst of the P450 enzyme. The performance of the sensor for paracetamol detection was investigated and optimized in a flow injection system (FIA) using a wall jet electrochemical cell. Under optimized conditions a wide linear response range (1.0 x 10(-5) to 5.0 x 10(-2) mol L(-1)) was obtained, with a sensitivity of 2579 (+/- 129) mu A L mu mol(-1). The detection and quantification limits of the sensor for paracetamol in the FIA system were 1.0 and 3.5 mu mol L(-1), respectively. The analytical frequency was 51 samples h(-1), and over a period of five days (320 determinations) the biosensor maintained practically the same response. The system was successfully applied to paracetamol quantification in seven pharmaceutical formulations and in water samples from six rivers in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.
Resumo:
To investigate stress intensity and coping style in older people with mild Alzheimer`s disease. The potential risk assessment of a stress event and the devising of coping strategies are dependent on cognitive function. Although older individuals with Alzheimer`s disease present significant cognitive impairment, little is known about how these individuals experience stress events and select coping strategies in stress situations. Survey. A convenient sample of 30 cognitively healthy older people and 30 individuals with mild Alzheimer`s disease were given an assessment battery of stress indicators (Symptom Stress List, Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), coping style (Jalowiec Coping Scale) and cognitive performance (mini-mental state exam) were applied in both groups. Statistical analysis of the data employed the Mann-Whitney test to compare medians of stress indicators and coping style, Fischer`s exact test to compare proportions when expected frequencies were lower than five, and Spearman`s correlation coefficient to verify correlation between coping style and cognitive performance. Both groups suffered from the same stress intensity (p = 0.254). Regarding coping styles, although differences were not statistically significant (p = 0.124), emotion-oriented coping was predominant in the patients with Alzheimer`s disease. However, those individuals displaying better cognitive performance in the Alzheimer`s disease group had selected coping strategies focused on problem solving (p = 0.0074). Despite a tendency for older people with Alzheimer`s disease to select escape strategies and emotional control, rather than attempting to resolve or lesser the consequences arising from a problem, coping ultimately depends on cognitive performance of the individual. The findings of this study provide information and data to assist planning of appropriate support care for individuals with Alzheimer`s disease who experience stress situations, based on their cognitive performance.
Resumo:
An analysis of geomorphic system`s response to change in human and natural drivers in some areas within the Rio de la Plata basin is presented The aim is to determine whether an acceleration of geomorphic processes has taken place in recent years and, if so, to what extent it is due to natural (climate) or human (land-use) drivers Study areas of different size, socio-economic and geomorphic conditions have been selected: the Rio de la Plata estuary and three sub-basins within its watershed Sediment cores were extracted and dated ((210)Pb) to determine sedimentation rates since the end of the 19th century. Rates were compared with time series on rainfall as well as human drivers such as population, GDP, livestock load, crop area, energy consumption or cement consumption, all of them related to human capacity to disturb land surface Data on river discharge were also gathered Results obtained indicate that sedimentation rates during the last century have remained essentially constant in a remote Andean basin, whereas they show important increases in the other two, particularly one located by the Sao Paulo metropolitan area Rates in the estuary are somewhere in between It appears that there is an intensification of denudation/sedimentation processes within the basin. Rainfall remained stable or varied very slightly during the period analysed and does not seem to explain increases of sedimentation rates observed. Human drivers, particularly those more directly related to capacity to disturb land surface (GDP, energy or cement consumption) show variations that suggest human forcing is a more likely explanation for the observed change in geomorphic processes It appears that a marked increase in denudation, of a ""technological"" nature, is taking place in this basin and leading to an acceleration of sediment supply This is coherent with similar increases observed in other regions (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
Resumo:
Studies on the avoidance behavior of aquatic organisms to contaminants have confirmed that such behavior can be relevant in field situations. However, almost all toxicity tests involve the forced exposure of organisms to toxicants. In particular, despite the importance of Chironomus riparius Meigen larvae in sediment toxicity testing, only a few studies on avoidance behavior have been performed. This study investigated the ability of different life stages of C. riparius, including ovipositing females, first-, second-, and fourth-instar larvae, to avoid copper-contaminated environments. Ovipositing females were given a choice between a control and copper solution (1.3 mg Cu l(-1)). First-instar larvae were provided with a choice between a control and a copper (2.0 mg Cu l(-1))-spiked sediment. Both second- and fourth-instars were exposed to a copper gradient (0.38-3.4 mg Cu l(-1)) in a flow-through system. None of the life stages avoided copper, even though the highest concentrations caused lethal effects on midges. The avoidance behavior of C. riparius is not a sensitive endpoint to assess copper sublethal toxicity.
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This paper shows a new hybrid method for risk assessment regarding interruptions in sensitive processes due to faults in electric power distribution systems. This method determines indices related to long duration interruptions and short duration voltage variations (SDVV), such as voltage sags and swells in each customer supplied by the distribution network. Frequency of such occurrences and their impact on customer processes are determined for each bus and classified according to their corresponding magnitude and duration. The method is based on information regarding network configuration, system parameters and protective devices. It randomly generates a number of fault scenarios in order to assess risk areas regarding long duration interruptions and voltage sags and swells in an especially inventive way, including frequency of events according to their magnitude and duration. Based on sensitivity curves, the method determines frequency indices regarding disruption in customer processes that represent equipment malfunction and possible process interruptions due to voltage sags and swells. Such approach allows for the assessment of the annual costs associated with each one of the evaluated power quality indices.
Resumo:
Linguica is a highly popular and appreciated pork product in Brazil, frequently consumed undercooked. Aiming at collection of data for a future risk assessment, this study evaluated the prevalence and counts of Listeria monocytogenes in linguica samples collected at retail level in Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. ISO methods were used for detection and enumeration of the pathogen (11290-1 and 11290-2, respectively). Isolates were submitted to Simplex-PCR for hlyA gene and those with biochemical features of L. monocytogenes and hlyA positive were serotyped using a Multiplex PCR. Ninety percent of the samples were positive for Listeria spp., and L monocytogenes was detected in 42% of the samples, with counts below 10(2) CFU/g in all samples. A prevalence of uncommon serotypes 4a and 4c was observed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Environmental poisoning is most commonly associated with chronic longterm exposure to toxins rather than to acute exposure. Such repeated exposure to sublethal doses of compounds and elements presents problems in risk assessment. This is primarily because the data are unavailable to describe relationships between dose and effect at lower levels of exposure to toxins. Bioavailability of toxins also presents a problem because the data on bioavailability are sparse and seldom as high as the default of 100% bioavailability commonly used in risk assessment. Examples are presented of two toxins: arsenic as an elemental anthropogenic and geologic poison and ciguatoxin, a polyether ladder compound, as a toxin produced naturally by dinoflagellates. Bioavailability drives the toxicity of arsenic from contaminated sites, whereas tissue accumulation drives the toxicity of ciguatoxin. Considerable benefit is derived from the harmonization of regulatory processes where there is linkage of health and environmental factors in the derivation of credible risk assessment.
Gender differences in the relationship between depression and suicidal ideation in young adolescents
Resumo:
Objective: This study examined the risk relationship between depressive symptomatology and suicidal ideation for young adolescent males and females. Method: A large cohort of students in their first year of high school completed the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Adolescent Suicide Questionnaire. The risk relationship between depressive symptomatology and suicidal ideation was modelled using non-parametric kernel-smoothing techniques. Results: Suicidal ideation was more frequently reported by females compared with males which was partly explained by females having higher mean depression scores. At moderate levels of depression females also had a significantly higher risk of suicidal ideation compared with males and this increased risk contributed to the overall higher levels of female ideation. Conclusions: The risk relationship between depressive symptomatology and suicidal ideation is different for young adolescent males and females. The results indicate that moderate levels of depressive symptomatology can be associated with suicidal ideation (especially among young females) and that for these young people a suicide risk assessment is required.
Resumo:
A nostocalean nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium isolated from an eutrophic freshwater reservoir located in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil, was evaluated for the production of hepatotoxic cyclic heptapeptides, microcystins. Morphologically this new cyanobacterium strain appears closest to Nostoc, however, in the phylogenetic analysis of 165 rRNA gene it falls into a highly stable cluster distantly only related to the typical Nostoc cluster. Extracts of Nostoc sp. CENA88 cultured cells, investigated using ELISA assay, gave positive results and the microcystin profile revealed by ESI-Q-TOF/MS/MS analysis confirmed the production of [Dha(7)]MCYST-YR. Further, Nostoc sp. CENA88 genomic DNA was analyzed by PCR for sequences of mcyD, mcyE and mcyG genes of microcystin synthetase (mcy) cluster. The result revealed the presence of mcyD, mcyE and mcyG genes with similarities to those from mcy of Nostoc sp. strains 152 and IO-102-I and other cyanobacterial genera. The phylogenetic tree based on concatenated McyG, McyD and McyE amino acids clustered the sequences according to cyanobacterial genera, with exception of the Nostoc sp. CENA88 sequence, which was placed in a clade distantly related from other Nostoc strains, as previously observed also in the 165 rRNA phylogenetic analysis. The present study describes for the first time a Brazilian Nostoc microcystin producer and also the occurrence of demethyl MCYST-YR variant in this genus. The sequenced Nostoc genes involved in the microcystin synthesis can contribute to a better understanding of the toxigenicity and evolution of this cyanotoxin. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We investigated the production of a hepatotoxic, cyclic heptapeptide, microcystin, by a filamentous branched cyanobacterium belonging to the order Stigonematales, genus Fischerella. The freshwater Fischerella sp. strain CENA161 was isolated from spring water in a small concrete dam in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, and identified by combining a morphological description with 16S rRNA gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Microcystin (MCYST) analysis performed using an ELISA assay on cultured cells gave positive results. High performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) analysis detected 33.6 mu g MCYST-LR per gram dry weight of cyanobacterial cells. Microcystin profile revealed by quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (Q-TOF-MS/MS) analysis confirmed the production of MCYST-LR. Furthermore, genomic DNA was analyzed by PCR for sequences similar to the ketosynthase (KS) domain of the type I polyketide synthase gene, which is involved in microcystin biosynthesis. This revealed the presence of a KS nucleotide fragment similar to the mcyD and ndaD genes of the microcystin and nodularin synthetase complexes. Phylogenetic analysis grouped the Fischerella KS sequence together with mcyD sequences of the three known microcystin synthetase operon (Microcystis, Planktothrix and Anabaena) and ndaD of the nodularin synthetase operon, with 100% bootstrap support. Our findings demonstrate that Fischerella sp. CENA161 produces MYCST-LR and for the first time identify a nucleotide sequence putatively involved in microcystin synthesis in this genus. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.