807 resultados para positive predictive value
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain (LBP) is crucial. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study was to identify in patients with a new episode of LBP the time point at which those at risk of developing persistent LBP can be best identified.METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 315 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a first episode of acute LBP. Primary outcome measure was functional limitation. Patients were assessed at baseline, three, six, twelve weeks and six months looking at factors of maladaptive cognition as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all time points. RESULTS The best time point to predict the development of persistent LBP at six months was the twelve-week follow-up (sensitivity 78%; overall predictive value 90%). Cognitions assessed at first visit to a health practitioner were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS Maladaptive cognitions at twelve weeks appear to be suitable predictors for a transition from acute to persistent LBP. Already three weeks after patients present to a health practitioner with acute LBP cognitions might influence the development of persistent LBP. Therefore, cognitive-behavioral interventions should be considered as early adjuvant LBP treatment in patients at risk of developing persistent LBP.
Resumo:
Instruments for on-farm determination of colostrum quality such as refractometers and densimeters are increasingly used in dairy farms. The colour of colostrum is also supposed to reflect its quality. A paler or mature milk-like colour is associated with a lower colostrum value in terms of its general composition compared with a more yellowish and darker colour. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between colour measurement of colostrum using the CIELAB colour space (CIE L*=from white to black, a*=from red to green, b*=from yellow to blue, chroma value G=visual perceived colourfulness) and its composition. Dairy cow colostrum samples (n=117) obtained at 4·7±1·5 h after parturition were analysed for immunoglobulin G (IgG) by ELISA and for fat, protein and lactose by infrared spectroscopy. For colour measurements, a calibrated spectrophotometer was used. At a cut-off value of 50 mg IgG/ml, colour measurement had a sensitivity of 50·0%, a specificity of 49·5%, and a negative predictive value of 87·9%. Colostral IgG concentration was not correlated with the chroma value G, but with relative lightness L*. While milk fat content showed a relationship to the parameters L*, a*, b* and G from the colour measurement, milk protein content was not correlated with a*, but with L*, b*, and G. Lactose concentration in colostrum showed only a relationship with b* and G. In conclusion, parameters of the colour measurement showed clear relationships to colostral IgG, fat, protein and lactose concentration in dairy cows. Implementation of colour measuring devices in automatic milking systems and milking parlours might be a potential instrument to access colostrum quality as well as detecting abnormal milk.
Resumo:
Objectives: To examine the predictive value of early improvement for short- and long-term outcome in the treatment of depressive female inpatients and to explore the influence of comorbid disorders (CD). Methods: Archival data of a naturalistic sample of 277 female inpatients diagnosed with a depressive disorder was analyzed assessing the BDI at baseline, after 20 days and 30 days, posttreatment, and after 3 to 6 months at follow-up. Early improvement, defined as a decrease in the BDI score of at least 30% after 20 and after 30 days, and CD were analyzed using binary logistic regression. Results: Both early improvement definitions were predictive of remission at posttreatment. Early improvement after 30 days showed a sustained treatment effect in the follow-up phase, whereas early improvement after 20 days failed to show a persistent effect regarding remission at follow-up. CD were not significantly related neither at posttreatment nor at follow-up. At no time point CD moderated the prediction by early improvement. Conclusions: We show that early improvement is a valid predictor for short-term remission and at follow-up in an inpatient setting. CD did not predict outcome. Further studies are needed to identify patient subgroups amenable to more tailored treatments.
Resumo:
Objectives The present study investigated the predictive value of the explicit and implicit affiliation motive for social behavior in sport competitions. From an information processing perspective, an explicit motive is linked to verbal cues and respondent behavior. The implicit motive in turn is linked to nonverbal stimuli and operant behavior (McClelland, Koestner, & Weinberger, 1989; Schultheiss, 2008). Both respondent affiliative behavior (e.g., verbal interactions with teammates) and operant nonverbal social behavior (e.g., pleasant to opponents) can be observed in racquet sports team competitions. Design & Methods Fifty-two male racquet sportsmen completed the Personality Research Form (explicit affiliation motive) and the Operant Motive Test (implicit affiliation motive). Motive measures were used to predict social behavior during competitions using multiple regression analyses. To this aim real competitive matches were videotaped and analyzed. Results Results show that the explicit affiliation motive is associated with time spent in verbal team contact. The implicit affiliation motive, by contrast, is linked to pleasant nonverbal behavior shown toward opponents. Conclusions Findings suggest that implicit and explicit affiliation motives predict different kinds of social behavior in sports competition respectively. Indirect motive measures may be of additional predictive value for different behavior in real sports settings.
Resumo:
Objectives: Depression is associated with poor prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that depressive symptoms at discharge from a cardiac rehabilitation program are associated with an increased risk of future CVD-related hospitalizations. Methods: We examined 486 CVD patients (mean age = 59.8 ± 11.2) who enrolled in a comprehensive 3-month rehabilitation program and completed the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). At follow-up we evaluated the predictive value of depressive symptoms for CVD-related hospitalizations, controlling for sociodemographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and disease severity. Results: During a mean follow-up of 41.5 ± 15.6 months, 63 patients experienced a CVD-related hospitalization. The percentage of depressive patients (HADS-D ≥ 8) decreased from 16.9% at rehabilitation entry to 10.7% at discharge. Depressive symptoms at discharge from rehabilitation were a significant predictor of outcome (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09–1.60; p =0.004). Patients with clinically relevant depressive symptoms at discharge had a 2.5-fold increased relative risk of poor cardiac prognosis compared to patients without clinically relevant depressive symptoms independently of other prognostic variables. Conclusion: In patients with CVD, depressive symptoms at discharge from rehabilitation indicated a poor cardiac prognosis.
Resumo:
Abstract Previous work highlighted the possibility that musical training has an influence on cognitive functioning. The suggested reason for this influence is the strong recruitment of attention, planning, and working memory functions during playing a musical instrument. The purpose of the present work was twofold, namely to evaluate the general relationship between pre-stimulus electrophysiological activity and cognition, and more specifically the influence of musical expertise on working memory functions. With this purpose in mind, we used covariance mapping analyses to evaluate whether pre-stimulus electroencephalographic activity is predictive for reaction time during a visual working memory task (Sternberg paradigm) in musicians and non-musicians. In line with our hypothesis, we replicated previous findings pointing to a general predictive value of pre-stimulus activity for working memory performance. Most importantly, we also provide first evidence for an influence of musical expertise on working memory performance that could distinctively be predicted by pre-stimulus spectral power. Our results open novel perspectives for better comprehending the vast influences of musical expertise on cognition.
Resumo:
Abstract Purpose Aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular abnormality in the elderly population. For inoperable patients or those at high-risk for surgery, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become an alternative therapeutic option. The aim of the “Comprehensive geriatric assessment for transcatheter aortic valve implantation” (CGA-TAVI) registry is to evaluate the effectiveness of TAVI from the perspective of the geriatrician and to identify patient characteristics and indicators related to complications and clinical benefits for patients with symptomatic severe calcified degenerative AS undergoing TAVI. Materials and methods The CGA-TAVI registry is an international, multi-center, prospective, observational registry across Europe with consecutive patient enrolment. The registry will enrol up to 200 patients with AS undergoing TAVI, starting August 2013. CGA-TAVI has two co-primary objectives: (1) Establish predictive value of Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for mortality and/or hospitalization in TAVI patients. (2) Demonstrate CGA changes within 3 months after TAVI. Secondary objectives are: (1) Establish predictive value of CGA in TAVI patients for all-cause hospitalization, TAVI-related hospitalization, and nursing home admission. (2) Develop a comprehensive score for the assessment of TAVI patient prognosis. Conclusions The data obtained from the CGA-TAVI registry will supplement previous results to document the potential value of the effectiveness of TAVI from the perspective of geriatricians and will allow the assessment of the predictive value of CGA for mortality and/or hospitalization in elderly TAVI patients. Keywords Aortic stenosis; Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI); Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA); Registry; Predictor
Resumo:
The G M1-gangliosidosis is an autosomal recessive lysosomal storage disease caused by structural defects of the beta-galactosidase gene (GLB1) which lead to a severe phenotypical impairment in homozygous individuals, whereas heterozygous carriers remain clinically normal. Currently employed DNA parentage tests include the analysis of microsatellites, which also have a diagnostic predictive value. The aim of this study was to provide a reliable tool for genotyping the canine GLB1 which can be effectively integrated in parentage testing investigations. For this purpose the association between the GLB1 gene and the AHT K253 microsatellite was analyzed in 30 Alaskan huskies (11 GLB1+/+, 17 GLB1+/- and 2 GLB1-/- dogs). The 143 bp AHT K253 microsatellite allele was identified only in GLB1+/- and GLB1-/- animals and was in strong linkage disequilibrium with the causative mutation for G M1-gangliosidosis, a 19 bp duplication within exon 15 of the GLB1 gene. The results of the present study revealed a 100% concordance between the previous established genotypes and those obtained after the analysis of the AHT K253 microsatellite. Thus, the genotype of the AHT K253 microsatellite, which is routinely determined during dog parentage testing, has a high predictive value for the G M1-gangliosidosis carrier status.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.
Resumo:
Leopard Complex spotting occurs in several breeds of horses and is caused by an incompletely dominant allele (LP). Homozygosity for LP is also associated with congenital stationary night blindness (CSNB) in Appaloosa horses. Previously, LP was mapped to a 6 cm region on ECA1 containing the candidate gene TRPM1 (Transient Receptor Potential Cation Channel, Subfamily M, Member 1) and decreased expression of this gene, measured by qRT-PCR, was identified as the likely cause of both spotting and ocular phenotypes. This study describes investigations for a mutation causing or associated with the Leopard Complex and CSNB phenotype in horses. Re-sequencing of the gene and associated splice sites within the 105 624 bp genomic region of TRPM1 led to the discovery of 18 SNPs. Most of the SNPs did not have a predictive value for the presence of LP. However, one SNP (ECA1:108,249,293 C>T) found within intron 11 had a strong (P < 0.0005), but not complete, association with LP and CSNB and thus is a good marker but unlikely to be causative. To further localize the association, 70 SNPs spanning over two Mb including the TRPM1 gene were genotyped in 192 horses from three different breeds segregating for LP. A single 173 kb haplotype associated with LP and CSNB (ECA1: 108,197,355- 108,370,150) was identified. Illumina sequencing of 300 kb surrounding this haplotype revealed 57 SNP variants. Based on their localization within expressed sequences or regions of high sequence conservation across mammals, six of these SNPs were considered to be the most likely candidate mutations. While the precise function of TRPM1 remains to be elucidated, this work solidifies its functional role in both pigmentation and night vision. Further, this work has identified several potential regulatory elements of the TRPM1 gene that should be investigated further in this and other species.
Resumo:
OBJECT Current data show a favorable outcome in up to 50% of patients with World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Grade V subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and a rather poor prediction of worst cases. Thus, the usefulness of the current WFNS grading system for identifying the worst scenarios for clinical studies and for making treatment decisions is limited. One reason for this lack of differentiation is the use of "negative" or "silent" diagnostic signs as part of the WFNS Grade V definition. The authors therefore reevaluated the WFNS scale by using "positive" clinical signs and the logic of the Glasgow Coma Scale as a progressive herniation score. METHODS The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 182 patients with SAH who had poor grades on the WFNS scale. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally according to a modified classification, the WFNS herniation (hWFNS) scale (Grade IV, no clinical signs of herniation; Grade V, clinical signs of herniation). The prediction of poor outcome was compared between these two grading systems. RESULTS The positive predictive values of Grade V for poor outcome were 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% CI 1.94-7.54) for WFNS Grade V and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI 3.78-19.47) for hWFNS Grade V. With respect to mortality, the positive predictive values were 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.01-7.69) for WFNS Grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI 3.07-13.14) for hWFNS Grade V. CONCLUSIONS Limiting WFNS Grade V to the positive clinical signs of the Glasgow Coma Scale such as flexion, extension, and pupillary abnormalities instead of including "no motor response" increases the prediction of mortality and poor outcome in patients with severe SAH.
Resumo:
In their daily forensic casework, the authors experienced discrepancies of tracheobronchial content findings between postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) and autopsy to an extent previously unnoticed in the literature. The goal of this study was to evaluate such discrepancies in routine forensic cases. A total of 327 cases that underwent PMCT prior to routine forensic autopsy were retrospectively evaluated for tracheal and bronchial contents according to PMCT and autopsy findings. Hounsfield unit (HU) values of tracheobronchial contents, causes of death, and presence of pulmonary edema were assessed in mismatching and matching cases. Comparing contents in PMCT and autopsy in each of the separately evaluated compartments of the respiratory tract low positive predictive values were assessed (trachea, 38.2 %; main bronchi, 40 %; peripheral bronchi, 69.1 %) indicating high discrepancy rates. The majority of tracheobronchial contents were viscous stomach contents in matching cases and low radiodensity materials (i.e., HU < 30) in mismatching cases. The majority of causes of death were cardiac related in the matching cases and skull/brain trauma in the mismatching cases. In mismatching cases, frequency of pulmonary edema was significantly higher than in matching cases. It can be concluded that discrepancies in tracheobronchial contents observed between PMCT and routine forensic autopsy occur in a considerable number of cases. Discrepancies may be explained by the runoff of contents via nose and mouth during external examination and the flow back of tracheal and main bronchial contents into the lungs caused by upright movement of the respiratory tract at autopsy.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Inability to predict the therapeutic effect of a drug in individual pain patients prolongs the process of drug and dose finding until satisfactory pharmacotherapy can be achieved. Many chronic pain conditions are associated with hypersensitivity of the nervous system or impaired endogenous pain modulation. Pharmacotherapy often aims at influencing these disturbed nociceptive processes. Its effect might therefore depend on the extent to which they are altered. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) can evaluate various aspects of pain processing and might therefore be able to predict the analgesic efficacy of a given drug. In the present study three drugs commonly used in the pharmacological management of chronic low back pain are investigated. The primary objective is to examine the ability of QST to predict pain reduction. As a secondary objective, the analgesic effects of these drugs and their effect on QST are evaluated. METHODS/DESIGN In this randomized, double blinded, placebo controlled cross-over study, patients with chronic low back pain are randomly assigned to imipramine, oxycodone or clobazam versus active placebo. QST is assessed at baseline, 1 and 2 h after drug administration. Pain intensity, side effects and patients' global impression of change are assessed in intervals of 30 min up to two hours after drug intake. Baseline QST is used as explanatory variable to predict drug effect. The change in QST over time is analyzed to describe the pharmacodynamic effects of each drug on experimental pain modalities. Genetic polymorphisms are analyzed as co-variables. DISCUSSION Pharmacotherapy is a mainstay in chronic pain treatment. Antidepressants, anticonvulsants and opioids are frequently prescribed in a "trial and error" fashion, without knowledge however, which drug suits best which patient. The present study addresses the important need to translate recent advances in pain research to clinical practice. Assessing the predictive value of central hypersensitivity and endogenous pain modulation could allow for the implementation of a mechanism-based treatment strategy in individual patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01179828.
Thrombophilia and risk of VTE recurrence according to the age at the time of first VTE manifestation
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Whether screening for thrombophilia is useful for patients after a first episode of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a controversial issue. However, the impact of thrombophilia on the risk of recurrence may vary depending on the patient's age at the time of the first VTE. PATIENTS AND METHODS Of 1221 VTE patients (42 % males) registered in the MAISTHRO (MAin-ISar-THROmbosis) registry, 261 experienced VTE recurrence during a 5-year follow-up after the discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. RESULTS Thrombophilia was more common among patients with VTE recurrence than those without (58.6 % vs. 50.3 %; p = 0.017). Stratifying patients by the age at the time of their initial VTE, Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, sex and the presence or absence of established risk factors revealed a heterozygous prothrombin (PT) G20210A mutation (hazard ratio (HR) 2.65; 95 %-confidence interval (CI) 1.71 - 4.12; p < 0.001), homozygosity/double heterozygosity for the factor V Leiden and/or PT mutation (HR 2.35; 95 %-CI 1.09 - 5.07, p = 0.030), and an antithrombin deficiency (HR 2.12; 95 %-CI 1.12 - 4.10; p = 0.021) to predict recurrent VTE in patients aged 40 years or older, whereas lupus anticoagulants (HR 3.05; 95%-CI 1.40 - 6.66; p = 0.005) increased the risk of recurrence in younger patients. Subgroup analyses revealed an increased risk of recurrence for a heterozygous factor V Leiden mutation only in young females without hormonal treatment whereas the predictive value of a heterozygous PT mutation was restricted to males over the age of 40 years. CONCLUSIONS Our data do not support a preference of younger patients for thrombophilia testing after a first venous thromboembolic event.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND NOTCH signaling can exert oncogenic or tumor suppressive functions and can contribute to chemotherapy resistance in cancer. In this study, we aimed to clarify the clinicopathological significance and the prognostic and predictive value of NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression in gastric cancer (GC). METHODS NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression was determined immunohistochemically in 142 primarily resected GCs using tissue microarrays and in 84 pretherapeutic biopsies from patients treated by neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The results were correlated with survival, response to therapy, and clinico-pathological features. RESULTS Primarily resected patients with NOTCH1-negative tumors demonstrated worse survival. High NOTCH1 expression was associated with early-stage tumors and with significantly increased survival in this subgroup. Higher NOTCH2 expression was associated with early-stage and intestinal-type tumors and with better survival in the subgroup of intestinal-type tumors. In pretherapeutic biopsies, higher NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression was more frequent in non-responding patients, but these differences were statistically not significant. CONCLUSION Our findings suggested that, in particular, NOTCH1 expression indicated good prognosis in GC. The close relationship of high NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression with early tumor stages may indicate a tumor-suppressive role of NOTCH signaling in GC. The role of NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 in neoadjuvantly treated GC is limited.