Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

The Capm and Fama-French models in Brazil: a comparative study

This paper confronts the Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM - and the 3-Factor Fama-French - FF - model using both Brazilian and US stock market data for the same Sample period (1999-2007). The US data will serve only as a benchmark for comparative purposes. We use two competing econometric methods, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) by (Hansen, 1982) and the Iterative Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (ITNLSUR) by Burmeister and McElroy (1988). Both methods nest other options based on the procedure by Fama-MacBeth (1973). The estimations show that the FF model fits the Brazilian data better than CAPM, however it is imprecise compared with the US analog. We argue that this is a consequence of an absence of clear-cut anomalies in Brazilian data, specially those related to firm size. The tests on the efficiency of the models - nullity of intercepts and fitting of the cross-sectional regressions - presented mixed conclusions. The tests on intercept failed to rejected the CAPM when Brazilian value-premium-wise portfolios were used, contrasting with US data, a very well documented conclusion. The ITNLSUR has estimated an economically reasonable and statistically significant market risk premium for Brazil around 6.5% per year without resorting to any particular data set aggregation. However, we could not find the same for the US data during identical period or even using a larger data set. Este estudo procura contribuir com a literatura empírica brasileira de modelos de apreçamento de ativos. Dois dos principais modelos de apreçamento são Infrontados, os modelos Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)e de 3 fatores de Fama-French. São aplicadas ferramentas econométricas pouco exploradas na literatura nacional na estimação de equações de apreçamento: os métodos de GMM e ITNLSUR. Comparam-se as estimativas com as obtidas de dados americanos para o mesmo período e conclui-se que no Brasil o sucesso do modelo de Fama e French é limitado. Como subproduto da análise, (i) testa-se a presença das chamadas anomalias nos retornos, e (ii) calcula-se o prêmio de risco implícito nos retornos das ações. Os dados revelam a presença de um prêmio de valor, porém não de um prêmio de tamanho. Utilizando o método de ITNLSUR, o prêmio de risco de mercado é positivo e significativo, ao redor de 6,5% ao ano.

Egg production curve fitting using nonlinear models for selected and nonselected lines of White Leghorn hens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Generalized linear mixed models for the genetic evaluation of binary reproductive traits: a simulation study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

Effects of sex and age on genotype x environment interaction for beef cattle body weight studied using reaction norm models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comparison of different nonlinear functions to describe Nelore cattle growth

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

Effects of a mixed vector-scalar screened coulomb potential for spinless particles

The problem of a spinless particle subject to a general mixing of vector and scalar screened Coulomb potentials in a two-dimensional world is analyzed and its bounded solutions are found. Some unusual results, including the existence of a bona fide solitary zero-eigenmode solution, are revealed for the Klein-Gordon equation. The cases of pure vector and scalar potentials, already analyzed in previous works, are obtained as particular cases.

Relativistic effects of mixed vector-scalar-pseudoscalar potentials for fermions in 1+1 dimensions

The problem of fermions in the presence of a pseudoscalar plus a mixing of vector and scalar potentials which have equal or opposite signs is investigated. We explore all the possible signs of the potentials and discuss their bound-state solutions for fermions and antifermions. The cases of mixed vector and scalar Poschl-Teller-like and pseudoscalar kink-like potentials, already analyzed in previous works, are obtained as particular cases.

Stabilizing controller design for uncertain nonlinear systems using fuzzy models

A Lyapunov-based stabilizing control design method for uncertain nonlinear dynamical systems using fuzzy models is proposed. The controller is constructed using a design model of the dynamical process to be controlled. The design model is obtained from the truth model using a fuzzy modeling approach. The truth model represents a detailed description of the process dynamics. The truth model is used in a simulation experiment to evaluate the performance of the controller design. A method for generating local models that constitute the design model is proposed. Sufficient conditions for stability and stabilizability of fuzzy models using fuzzy state-feedback controllers are given. The results obtained are illustrated with a numerical example involving a four-dimensional nonlinear model of a stick balancer.

Allocation of protective devices in distribution circuits using nonlinear programming models and genetic algorithms

The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the effects of damping in the models validation

The search for better performance in the structural systems has been taken to more refined models, involving the analysis of a growing number of details, which should be correctly formulated aiming at defining a representative model of the real system. Representative models demand a great detailing of the project and search for new techniques of evaluation and analysis. Model updating is one of this technologies, it can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of computer-based models. This paper presents a FRF-based finite element model updating procedure whose the updating variables are physical parameters of the model. It includes the damping effects in the updating procedure assuming proportional and non proportional damping mechanism. The updating parameters are defined at an element level or macro regions of the model. So, the parameters are adjusted locally, facilitating the physical interpretation of the adjusting of the model. Different tests for simulated and experimental data are discussed aiming at evaluating the characteristics and potentialities of the methodology.

A Comparison of the Effects of Nonlinear Damping on the Free Vibration of a Single-Degree-of-Freedom System

This article concerns the free vibration of a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system with three types of nonlinear damping. One system considered is where the spring and the damper are connected to the mass so that they are orthogonal, and the vibration is in the direction of the spring. It is shown that, provided the displacement is small, this system behaves in a similar way to the conventional SDOF system with cubic damping, in which the spring and the damper are connected so they act in the same direction. For completeness, these systems are compared with a conventional SDOF system with quadratic damping. By transforming all the equations of motion of the systems so that the damping force is proportional to the product of a displacement dependent term and velocity, then all the systems can be directly compared. It is seen that the system with cubic damping is worse than that with quadratic damping for the attenuation of free vibration. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4005010]

Effects of two chronic stress models on ligature-induced periodontitis in Wistar rats

Objectives: The present study aims at comparing the effects of physical and variable chronic stress on ligature-induced periodontitis in rats.Design: Forty-eight adult Wistar rats were randomly assigned to four groups (n = 12): physical stress, variable stress, positive control and negative control. The models of physical stress were immobilization and immobilization associated with exposure to cold. The models of variable stress were exposure to intermittent light, 24 h isolation, oral cavity examination, crowded environment, smell of blood and noise. After 10 days of physical or variable stress animals underwent experimental induction of periodontal disease in one oral side. Positive control also underwent experimental induction of periodontal disease on the 10th day. Negative control did not receive any type of intervention. At the end of the experimental period (60 days), all animals were euthanized. After routine laboratory processing, images of the histological sections were digitised and submitted to histometric measurement using two parameters: histologic attachment loss and bone loss.Results: Histological attachment loss and bone loss were greater (p < 0.05) in the physical stress group than in the other groups (variable stress, positive and negative control groups). on the non-periodontitis side, these same histological parameters did not significantly differ amongst groups.Conclusions: Physical stress negatively modulated the response pattern to experimentally induced periodontitis in rats. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noradrenaline and mixed alpha(2)-adrenoceptor/imidazoline-receptor ligands: effects on sodium intake

The effect of noradrenaline, and mixed ligands to alpha(2)-adrenoceptors (alpha(2)-AR) and imidazoline receptors (IR), injected intracerebroventricularly (i.c.v.), on sodium intake of sodium depleted rats, was tested against idazoxan, a mixed antagonist ligand to alpha(2)-AR and IR. The inhibition of sodium intake induced by noradrenaline (80 nmol) was completely reversed by idazoxan (160 and 320 nmol) injected i.c.v. The inhibition of sodium intake induced by mixed ligands to alpha(2)-AR and IR, UK14,304, guanabenz and moxonidine, was antagonized from 50 to 60% by idazoxan i.c.v. The results demonstrate that noradrenaline, a non-ligand for IR, acts on alpha(2)-AR inhibiting sodium intake. The possibility that either alpha(2)-AR or IR mediate the effect of mixed agonists on sodium intake remains an open question. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.