Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Comparative analysis of different meat traceability systems using multiple criteria and a social network approach

The adoption of a proper traceability system is being incorporated into meat production practices as a method of gaining consumer confidence. The various partners operating in the chain of meat production can be considered a social network, and they have the common goal of generating a communication process that can ensure each characteristic of the product, including safety. This study aimed to select the most appropriate meat traceability system “from farm to fork” that could be applied to Brazilian beef and pork production for international trade. The research was done in three steps. The first used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting the best on-farm livestock traceability. In the second step, the actors in the meat production chain were identified to build a framework and defined each role in the network. In the third step, the selection of the traceability system was done. Results indicated that with an electronic traceability system, it is possible to acquire better connections between the links in the chain and to provide the means for managing uncertainties by creating structures that facilitate information flow more efficiently.

Purchasing portfolio analysis and supplier classification

The purpose of the thesis is to classify suppliers and to enhance strategic purchasing in the case company. Supplier classification is conducted to fulfill the requirements of the company quality manual and international quality standards. To gain more benefit, a strategic purchasing tool, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio and analytical hierarchy process are utilized for the base of supplier classification. Purchasing portfolio is used to give quick and easy visual insight on product group management form the viewpoint of purchasing. From the base on purchasing portfolio alternative purchasing and supplier strategies can be formed that enhance the strategic orientation of purchasing. Thus purchasing portfolio forces the company to orient on proactive and strategic purchasing. As a result a survey method for implementing purchasing portfolio in the company is developed that exploits analytical hierarchy process. Experts from the company appoint the categorization criteria and in addition, participate in the survey to categorize product groups on the portfolio. Alternative purchasing strategies are formed. Suppliers are classified depending on the importance and characteristics of the product groups supplied.

Green supplier selection via Multiple Criteria Data Envelopment Analysis

An appropriate supplier selection and its profound effects on increasing the competitive advantage of companies has been widely discussed in supply chain management (SCM) literature. By raising environmental awareness among companies and industries they attach more importance to sustainable and green activities in selection procedures of raw material providers. The current thesis benefits from data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique to evaluate the relative efficiency of suppliers in the presence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for green supplier selection. We incorporate the pollution of suppliers as an undesirable output into DEA. However, to do so, two conventional DEA model problems arise: the lack of the discrimination power among decision making units (DMUs) and flexibility of the inputs and outputs weights. To overcome these limitations, we use multiple criteria DEA (MCDEA) as one alternative. By applying MCDEA the number of suppliers which are identified as efficient will be decreased and will lead to a better ranking and selection of the suppliers. Besides, in order to compare the performance of the suppliers with an ideal supplier, a “virtual” best practice supplier is introduced. The presence of the ideal virtual supplier will also increase the discrimination power of the model for a better ranking of the suppliers. Therefore, a new MCDEA model is proposed to simultaneously handle undesirable outputs and virtual DMU. The developed model is applied for green supplier selection problem. A numerical example illustrates the applicability of the proposed model.

Noninvasive classification of liver disease in asymptomatic and oligosymptomatic male alcoholics

The predominant type of liver alteration in asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic chronic male alcoholics (N = 169) admitted to a psychiatric hospital for detoxification was classified by two independent methods: liver palpation and multiple quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), the latter applied to two parameters reported by the patient (duration of alcoholism and daily amount ingested) and to the data obtained from eight biochemical blood determinations (total bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, glycemia, potassium, aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, globulin, and sodium). All 11 soft and sensitive, and 13 firm and sensitive livers formed fully concordant groups as determined by QDA. Among the 22 soft and not sensitive livers, 95% were concordant by QDA grouping. Concordance rates were low (55%) in the 73 firm and not sensitive livers, and intermediate (76%) in the 50 not palpable livers. Prediction of the liver palpation characteristics by QDA was 95% correct for the firm and not sensitive livers and moderate for the other groups. On a preliminary basis, the variables considered to be most informative by QDA were the two anamnestic data and bilirubin levels, followed by alkaline phosphatase, glycemia and potassium, and then by aspartate aminotransferase and albumin. We conclude that, when biopsies would be too costly or potentially injurious to the patients to varying extents, clinical data could be considered valid to guide patient care, at least in the three groups (soft, not sensitive; soft, sensitive; firm, sensitive livers) in which the two noninvasive procedures were highly concordant in the present study.

Analysis of polymorphism at site -174 G/C of interleukin-6 promoter region in multiple myeloma

It is well established that interleukin-6 (IL-6) is an essential growth factor for multiple myeloma (MM) and patients with increased IL-6 levels have a poor prognosis. In healthy subjects, the presence of the C allele at a polymorphic site (-174 G/C) of the IL-6 gene is related to low IL-6 levels. In view of the potential association of this particular polymorphism with IL-6 concentration, and the relevance of IL-6 in MM pathogenesis, the objective of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of IL-6 (-174 G/C) promoter polymorphism and its association with development of MM in Brazilian individuals. We investigated the prevalence of these alleles in 52 patients and 60 healthy subjects (matched by age, sex, and race) of a Brazilian population. Thirty patients were male (42.4%), 24 (46.2%) were white and the median age at diagnosis was 58.5 years (range: 28 to 84 years). To determine the IL-6 (-174 G/C) polymorphism, molecular analysis was performed by polymerase chain reaction followed by endonuclease restriction digestion. The genotype distributions observed in the group of patients were 4% CC, 42% GC and 54% GG. The C allele frequency was 0.25. These results were similar to the control group, suggesting no impact of this polymorphism on the susceptibility to MM.

Classification of brain tumor extracts by high resolution ¹H MRS using partial least squares discriminant analysis

High resolution proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H MRS) can be used to detect biochemical changes in vitro caused by distinct pathologies. It can reveal distinct metabolic profiles of brain tumors although the accurate analysis and classification of different spectra remains a challenge. In this study, the pattern recognition method partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was used to classify 11.7 T ¹H MRS spectra of brain tissue extracts from patients with brain tumors into four classes (high-grade neuroglial, low-grade neuroglial, non-neuroglial, and metastasis) and a group of control brain tissue. PLS-DA revealed 9 metabolites as the most important in group differentiation: γ-aminobutyric acid, acetoacetate, alanine, creatine, glutamate/glutamine, glycine, myo-inositol, N-acetylaspartate, and choline compounds. Leave-one-out cross-validation showed that PLS-DA was efficient in group characterization. The metabolic patterns detected can be explained on the basis of previous multimodal studies of tumor metabolism and are consistent with neoplastic cell abnormalities possibly related to high turnover, resistance to apoptosis, osmotic stress and tumor tendency to use alternative energetic pathways such as glycolysis and ketogenesis.

Characterization and classification of pequi trees (Caryocar brasiliense Camb.) based on the profile of volatile constituents using headspace solid-phase microextraction - gas chromatography - mass spectrometry and multivariate analysis

In order to determine the variability of pequi tree (Caryocar brasiliense Camb.) populations, volatile compounds from fruits of eighteen trees representing five populations were extracted by headspace solid-phase microextraction and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Seventy-seven compounds were identified, including esters, hydrocarbons, terpenoids, ketones, lactones, and alcohols. Several compounds had not been previously reported in the pequi fruit. The amount of total volatile compounds and the individual compound contents varied between plants. The volatile profile enabled the differentiation of all of the eighteen plants, indicating that there is a characteristic profile in terms of their origin. The use of Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis enabled the establishment of markers (dendrolasin, ethyl octanoate, ethyl 2-octenoate and β-cis-ocimene) that discriminated among the pequi trees. According to the Cluster Analysis, the plants were classified into three main clusters, and four other plants showed a tendency to isolation. The results from multivariate analysis did not always group plants from the same population together, indicating that there is greater variability within the populations than between pequi tree populations.

Beyond g : putting multiple intelligences theory to the test /

The purpose of this study was to investigate Howard Gardner's (1983) Multiple Intelligences theory, which proposes that there are eight independent intelligences: Linguistic, Spatial, Logical/Mathematical, Interpersonal, Intrapersonal, Naturalistic, Bodily-Kinesthetic, and Musical. To explore Gardner's theory, two measures of each ability area were administered to 200 participants. Each participant also completed a measure of general cognitive ability, a personality inventory, an ability self-rating scale, and an ability self-report questionnaire. Nonverbal measures were included for most intelligence domains, and a wide range of content was sampled in Gardner's domains. Results showed that all tests of purely cognitive abilities were significantly correlated with the measure of general cognitive ability, whereas Musical, Bodily-Kinesthetic, and one of the Intrapersonal measures were not. Contrary to what Multiple Intelligences theory would seem to predict, correlations among the tests revealed a positive manifold and factor analysis indicated a large factor of general intelligence, with a mathematical reasoning test and a classification task from the Naturalistic domain having the highest ^- loadings. There were only minor sex differences in performance on the ability tests. Participants' self-estimates of ability were significantly and positively correlated with actual performance in some, but not all, intelligences. With regard to personality, a hypothesized association between Openness to Experience and crystallized intelligence was supported. The implications of the findings in regards to the nature of mental abilities were discussed, and recommendations for further research were made.

Analysis of multiple change-points in normally distributed series.

Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias con Orientación en Matemáticas) UANL, 2013.

Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models

In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (1998) considered theoretical issues related to the limiting distribution of estimators and test statistics in the linear model with multiple structural changes. In this companion paper, we consider practical issues for the empirical applications of the procedures. We first address the problem of estimation of the break dates and present an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals. This algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming and requires at most least-squares operations of order O(T 2) for any number of breaks. Our method can be applied to both pure and partial structural-change models. Secondly, we consider the problem of forming confidence intervals for the break dates under various hypotheses about the structure of the data and the errors across segments. Third, we address the issue of testing for structural changes under very general conditions on the data and the errors. Fourth, we address the issue of estimating the number of breaks. We present simulation results pertaining to the behavior of the estimators and tests in finite samples. Finally, a few empirical applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures. All methods discussed are implemented in a GAUSS program available upon request for non-profit academic use.

Clustering algorithms and shape factor methods to discriminate among small GTPase phenotypes using DIC image analysis.

Naïvement perçu, le processus d’évolution est une succession d’événements de duplication et de mutations graduelles dans le génome qui mènent à des changements dans les fonctions et les interactions du protéome. La famille des hydrolases de guanosine triphosphate (GTPases) similaire à Ras constitue un bon modèle de travail afin de comprendre ce phénomène fondamental, car cette famille de protéines contient un nombre limité d’éléments qui diffèrent en fonctionnalité et en interactions. Globalement, nous désirons comprendre comment les mutations singulières au niveau des GTPases affectent la morphologie des cellules ainsi que leur degré d’impact sur les populations asynchrones. Mon travail de maîtrise vise à classifier de manière significative différents phénotypes de la levure Saccaromyces cerevisiae via l’analyse de plusieurs critères morphologiques de souches exprimant des GTPases mutées et natives. Notre approche à base de microscopie et d’analyses bioinformatique des images DIC (microscopie d’interférence différentielle de contraste) permet de distinguer les phénotypes propres aux cellules natives et aux mutants. L’emploi de cette méthode a permis une détection automatisée et une caractérisation des phénotypes mutants associés à la sur-expression de GTPases constitutivement actives. Les mutants de GTPases constitutivement actifs Cdc42 Q61L, Rho5 Q91H, Ras1 Q68L et Rsr1 G12V ont été analysés avec succès. En effet, l’implémentation de différents algorithmes de partitionnement, permet d’analyser des données qui combinent les mesures morphologiques de population native et mutantes. Nos résultats démontrent que l’algorithme Fuzzy C-Means performe un partitionnement efficace des cellules natives ou mutantes, où les différents types de cellules sont classifiés en fonction de plusieurs facteurs de formes cellulaires obtenus à partir des images DIC. Cette analyse démontre que les mutations Cdc42 Q61L, Rho5 Q91H, Ras1 Q68L et Rsr1 G12V induisent respectivement des phénotypes amorphe, allongé, rond et large qui sont représentés par des vecteurs de facteurs de forme distincts. Ces distinctions sont observées avec différentes proportions (morphologie mutante / morphologie native) dans les populations de mutants. Le développement de nouvelles méthodes automatisées d’analyse morphologique des cellules natives et mutantes s’avère extrêmement utile pour l’étude de la famille des GTPases ainsi que des résidus spécifiques qui dictent leurs fonctions et réseau d’interaction. Nous pouvons maintenant envisager de produire des mutants de GTPases qui inversent leur fonction en ciblant des résidus divergents. La substitution fonctionnelle est ensuite détectée au niveau morphologique grâce à notre nouvelle stratégie quantitative. Ce type d’analyse peut également être transposé à d’autres familles de protéines et contribuer de manière significative au domaine de la biologie évolutive.

Evaluation of multiple reaction monitoring cubed for the analysis of tachykinin related peptides in rat spinal cord using a hybrid triple quadrupole–linear ion trap mass spectrometer

Targeted peptide methods generally use HPLC-MS/MRM approaches. Although dependent on the instrumental resolution, interferences may occur while performing analysis of complex biological matrices. HPLC-MS/MRM3 is a technique, which provides a significantly better selectivity, compared with HPLC-MS/MRM assay. HPLC-MS/MRM3 allows the detection and quantitation by enriching standard MRM with secondary product ions that are generated within the linear ion trap. Substance P (SP) and neurokinin A (NKA) are tachykinin peptides playing a central role in pain transmission. The objective of this study was to verify whether HPLC-HPLCMS/ MRM3 could provide significant advantages over a more traditional HPLC-MS/MRM assay for the quantification of SP and NKA in rat spinal cord. The results suggest that reconstructed MRM3 chromatograms display significant improvements with the nearly complete elimination of interfering peaks but the sensitivity (i.e. signal-to-noise ratio) was severely reduced. The precision (%CV) observed was between 3.5% - 24.1% using HPLC-MS/MRM and in the range of 4.3% - 13.1% with HPLC-MS/MRM3, for SP and NKA. The observed accuracy was within 10% of the theoretical concentrations tested. HPLC-MS/MRM3 may improve the assay sensitivity to detect difference between samples by reducing significantly the potential of interferences and therefore reduce instrumental errors.