THE PHYSICS OF IDEAS: INFERRING THE MECHANICS OF OPINION FORMATION FROM MACROSCOPIC STATISTICAL PATTERNS

In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.

Secagem da microalga Spirulina em camada delgada utilizando secador com bomba de calor

A Spirulina apresenta propriedades antioxidantes o que favorece seu uso como alimento funcional, fato que tem motivado a sua comercialização para a formulação de alimentos diversos e com finalidades terapêuticas. A secagem ganha importância durante produção de Spirulina, uma vez que a umidade necessária, para garantir que não ocorra degradação da biomassa desidratada durante o armazenamento, é alcançada através do conhecimento dos parâmetros que caracterizam a operação. Neste estudo foi utilizada a secagem com bomba de calor, um método alternativo, pois viabiliza a operação com temperaturas inferiores as tradicionalmente utilizadas, além de seu funcionamento ser independente das condições meteorológicas do ambiente. O trabalho experimental da secagem de Spirulina sp. foi iniciado com um estudo comparativo entre a secagem com bomba de calor (SBC) e a secagem tradicional (ST). O efeito dos diferentes métodos utilizados sob a amostra foi comparado em relação à cinética da operação e as características da microalga desidratada (cor, ficocianina, compostos fenólicos totais e atividade antioxidante total). As temperaturas do ar foram de 50 e 60ºC e a umidade absoluta da SBC foi dez vezes inferior a utilizada durante a ST. Os parâmetros que caracterizam a secagem foram influenciados pela temperatura do ar, bem como, pela baixa umidade absoluta na SBC. Os valores do tempo total da SBC foram 40% inferiores aos encontrados para a secagem ST, em ambas as temperaturas do ar. A maior preservação das características da Spirulina foi obtida na SBC e temperatura do ar de 50°C, e nesta condição os valores foram 14% (ficocianina), 60% (compostos fenólicos) e 10% (atividade antioxidante) superiores aos encontrados na mesma condição para a ST. Isto evidencia que o método de secagem é determinante na qualidade do produto desidratado. Posteriormente, foi realizado o estudo da cinética da SBC, bem como a otimização da operação de secagem e a reidratação das amostras desidratadas nas diferentes condições de secagem. O estudo foi realizado através de um planejamento fatorial 32, tendo como fatores de estudo a temperatura do ar (30, 40 e 50ºC) e a espessura da bandeja (1, 3 e 5 mm). As respostas utilizadas foram ficocianina, compostos fenólicos, atividade antioxidante total e cor da microalga desidratadas. Também foram realizadas a microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV) e as curvas termogravimétricas (DSC) das amostras desidratadas. A secagem apresentou um curto período de taxa constante, delimitado pela umidade crítica, sendo que, seus valores foram influenciados apenas pela temperatura do ar de secagem. O modelo Logarítmico forneceu elevados valores de R2ajust e os menores valores de soma dos erros quadráticos (SSE) e de critério informativo de Akaike (AIC). Os valores das energias de ativação para as espessuras de 1, 3 e 5 mm, foram na faixa de 20-23 kJ mol-1. A condição de operação mais adequada, para a secagem de Spirulina sp. com bomba de calor, foi obtida na temperatura do ar de 50°C e espessura da bandeja de 5 mm, com valores de ficocianina, compostos fenólicos, atividade antioxidante total e diferença de cor de 19,60 mg g-1, 1508 µgEAG g-1, 52,6% e 5,71, respectivamente. Os termogramas (DSC) evidenciaram que em 50 ºC e espessura de 5 mm, o produto apresentou maior estabilidade térmica. As amostras de Spirulina sp. desidratadas apresentaram estrutura morfológica (MEV), aparentemente, rígida e heterogênea, e os seus percentuais de reidratação corresponderam a 85-91% da umidade da microalga in natura.

INFLUÊNCIA DA POSIÇÃO SOCIAL NAS RELAÇÕES MORFOMÉTRICAS DE Araucaria angustifolia

The morphometric relations allow describing dimensions of trees without prior knowledge of the age, it help the forest planning and implementation of silvicultural treatments, especially when needs to make sustainable use of forests. For this purpose, the aim of this study was to model and comparising the morphometric relations araucaria trees in social position dominant, codominant and dominated in native forest remnant, located in Lages, SC. A total of 294 trees distributed in dbh classes were intentionally selected inside of forest. In each tree was measured dbh, total height, bole height, crown diameter by eight radius, as well as the classification of social position. Simple and multiple linear regression models were used to describe the relation h/d, the proportion of the crown and formal crown in function of diameter at breast height with simple transformation, quadratic, cubic, inverse and logarithmic form. The analysis of covariance with dummy variables were used to describe the social position and tested the parallelism and slope of regression indicating need or not of the use independent regressions. The results indicated that even with great variability in the shape and size of the crown due to growth and competition process, the morphometric relations of araucaria can be accurately estimated by regression models. The relation h/d, proportion of the crown and formal crown can be described by individual model for social position dominant, codominant and dominant, or alternatively a single model with the use of dummy variables that differentiate trees group dominated for the relation h/d and formal crown. The proportion of crown presented difference in dimensions of the trees, being necessary to use dummy variable for each social stratus or use the individual models.

Evaluation of thermo-physical properties and drying kinetics of carrots in a convective hot air drying system

This paper presents an experimental study on the evolution of carrot properties along convective drying by hot air at different temperatures (50ºC, 60ºC and 70ºC). The thermo-physical properties calculated were: specific heat, thermal conductivity, diffusivity, enthalpy, heat and mass transfer coefficients. Furthermore, the data of drying kinetics were treated and adjusted according to the three empirical models: Page, Henderson & Pabis and Logarithmic. The sorption isotherms were also determined and fitted using the GAB model. The results showed that, generally, the thermo-physical properties presented a decline during the drying process, and the decrease was faster for the temperature of 70ºC. It was possible to verify that the Page model presented the best prediction ability for the representation of kinetics of the drying process. The GAB model used to fit the sorption isotherms showed a good prediction capacity and, at a given water activity, despite some variations, the amount of water sorbed increased with the decrease of drying temperature.

Variação da composição nutricional e propriedades de cenouras durante a secagem

Este trabalho teve como objetivo a determinação das propriedades da cenoura (Daucus carota L.), da variedade Nantes, antes, durante e após a secagem por convecção a três temperaturas diferentes (50, 60 e 70 ºC).De forma a verificar as alterações ao nível de diferentes propriedades, tais como: propriedades químicas (humidade, proteínas, fibras, cinzas, açúcares e 'aw') propriedades físicas (textura, cor, porosidade e densidade) e propriedades termofísicas (calor específico, condutividade térmica, difusividade e entalpia). Dos resultados obtidos foi possível concluir que a temperatura de secagem de 70 º C foi a que mais afetou as propriedades químicas analisadas, tais como a humidade, proteínas e açúcares redutores, onde estes sofreram uma diminuição ao longo das secagens. A 'aw' também apresentou uma diminuição ao longo das secagens, onde apresentou um menor valor na secagem a 70 ºC, tendo passado de 0,97 para 0,69, enquanto as temperaturas de 50 ºC e 60 ºC apresentaram um valor final igual, de 0,74. No que diz respeito às propriedades físicas, verificou-se que em relação à textura registaram-se evoluções semelhantes em termos de dureza, mastigabilidade e gomosidade, na medida em que sofreram uma acentuada diminuição nas primeiras horas de secagem, e a temperatura de 70 ºC foi a que mais afetou estas propriedades. No caso da cor a temperatura de 60 ºC foi a que provocou uma maior diferença de cor, a qual ao longo da secagem esta foi aumentando. A porosidade sofreu um aumento com as secagens devido à diminuição da humidade, no entanto a temperatura de 70 ºC foi a que obteve uma menor porosidade, e as temperaturas de 50 ºC e 60 ºC apresentaram valores de porosidade semelhantes. As propriedades termofísicas registaram uma diminuição ao longo da secagem, onde o calor específico sofreu uma maior diminuição com a temperatura de 70 ºC, passando de 3,90 kJ/kg.K para 1,99 kJ/kg.K. A condutividade térmica também sofreu uma maior diminuição com a temperatura de 70 ºC, diminuindo de 0,5243 W/m.K para 0,2782 W/m.K. A difusividade foi de igual forma afetada pela temperatura de 70 ºC, tendo diminuído de 1,50×10-7 m2/s para 1,06×10-7 m2/s. No caso da entalpia, esta sofreu uma maior diminuição com a temperatura de 50 ºC, passando de 233 J/kg para 96,7 J/kg. As isotérmicas de sorção foram ajustadas ao modelo de GAB, onde se verificou que apesar de algumas oscilações a quantidade de água sorvida a uma determinada aw, aumentou com a diminuição da temperatura.Os dados da cinética de secagem foram tratados e ajustados de acordo com três modelos: Page, Henderson & Pabis e Logarítmico, tendo-se verificado que o modelo de Page foi o que mostrou melhor descrever os processos em estudo, enquanto o pior modelo para descrever a cinética de secagem foi o Logarítmico.

Dinâmica do fósforo em cultivo heterotrófico e produção de compostos celulares por cianobactéria integrado a biorrefinarias agroindustriais

O objetivo desta tese foi avaliar a dinâmica do fósforo em cultivo heterotrófico e produção de compostos celulares por Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli visando avaliar a perspectiva de implementação de uma biorrefinaria microalgal. Desta forma, foi avaliado o comportamento do micro-organismo em estudo no cultivo heterotrófico, utilizando como meio de cultivo o efluente de laticínios. O trabalho foi desenvolvido em 3 etapas. Em um primeiro momento foi avaliada a influência da temperatura (20 e 30°C) e os valores máximos e mínimos de nutrientes, em especial do fósforo dissolvido reativo (PDR), disponíveis no efluente de laticínio, na remoção de nutrientes. Os resultados demonstraram que a concentração inicial de fósforo dissolvido e a temperatura exerceram influência no crescimento celular e na eficiência de remoção de nutrientes. Em termos de otimização de processo os cultivos conduzidos a 20°C e maiores concentrações de PDR (5,5 mg.L-1 ) no efluente de laticínio, foram os mais eficientes na conversão de poluentes em biomassa e remoção de nutrientes. A segunda etapa foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de avaliar a dinâmica de distribuição de fósforo na fase líquida e sólida do reator heterotrófico, quando o efluente de laticínio foi tratado pela Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli, a 20°C e nas máximas concentrações de fósforo dissolvido encontradas no efluente. Foi demonstrado que as formas fosforadas na fase líquida do reator se caracterizam pela predominância da fração dissolvida em comparação à particulada e por apresentar como fração predominante a de fósforo orgânico. No que se refere à fase sólida, ficou demonstrado que a Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli, quando cultivada heterotroficamente apresenta 3,8 vezes mais fósforo que o requerido para o crescimento celular. Ficando demonstrado ainda que a remoção biológica de fósforo por Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli pode resultar em substanciais aportes financeiros para as estações de tratamento de efluentes. Uma terceira etapa foi desenvolvida, a qual teve como objetivo avaliar a estimativa de produção de compostos celulares por Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli, a partir do efluente de laticínio, bem como o efeito da redução de temperatura de cultivo no teor de lipídios , no momento em que é obtida a máxima concentração deste componente celular, nas condições otimizadas.Foi obtido na fase logarítmica de crescimento, concentrações de 41,8 % de proteinas, carboidratos 28,5 %, lipídios 10,4 % e minerais 10,8 %. O maior teor de lipídio registrado a 20°C correspondeu a biomassa analisada na fase logarítmica.Com a redução da temperatura para 5°C por um período de 30 h é possível obter concentrações de lipídios 2,4 vezes superior ao registrado na fase logarítmica a 20 °C. No entanto, não foram indicadas diferenças significativas (p≤0,05) em função da temperatura entre as concentrações de lipídios obtidas para a biomassa a 10°C em 40 h. O perfil de ácidos graxos da biomassa gerada a 20°C, apresentou como ácidos graxos majoritários, os ácidos graxos: palmítico, oléico, γ-linolênico, palmitoleico e esteárico, resultando um aumento na concentração de ácidos graxos saturados as espensa dos insaturados, quando a temperatura é reduzida. Em paralelo,um reator heterotrófico descontinuo foi definido, ficando demonstrado que a extrapolação da operação em batelada para contínua requer um biorreator heterotrófico com volume útil de trabalho de 240,51 m 3 , permitindo tratar 950 m3 diários de efluente, gerando 11,8 kg.d-1 de biomassa útil para produção de compostos celulares por Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli, visando à simultânea remoção de matéria orgânica, nitrogênio total e fósforo total, gerando insumos que podem suportar a implementação de uma biorrefinaria microalgal.

Hydrothermal-vent alvinellid polychaete dispersal in the eastern Pacific .1. Influence of vent site distribution, bottom currents, and biological patterns

Deep-sea hydrothermal-vent habitats are typically linear, discontinuous, and short-lived. Some of the vent fauna such as the endemic polychaete family Alvinellidae are thought to lack a planktotrophic larval stage and therefore not to broadcast-release their offspring. The genetic evidence points to exchanges on a scale that seems to contradict this type of reproductive pattern. However, the rift valley may topographically rectify the bottom currents, thereby facilitating the dispersal of propagules between active vent sites separated in some cases by 10s of kilometers or more along the ridge axis. A propagule flux model based on a matrix of intersite distances, long-term current-meter data, and information on the biology and ecology of Alvinellidae was developed to test this hypothesis. Calculations of the number of migrants exchanged between two populations per generation (N-m) allowed comparisons with estimates obtained from genetic studies. N, displays a logarithmic decrease with increasing dispersal duration and reaches the critical value of 1 after 8 d when the propagule Aux model was run in standard conditions. At most, propagule traveling time cannot reasonably exceed 15-30 d, according to the model, whereas reported distances between sites would require longer lasting dispersal abilities. Two nonexclusive explanations are proposed. First, some aspects of the biology of Alvinellidae have been overlooked and long-distance dispersal does occur. Second, such dispersal never occurs in Alvinellidae, but the spatial-temporal dynamics of vent sites over geological timescales allows short-range dispersal processes to maintain gene flow.

Application of an online-biomass sensor in an optical multisensory platform prototype for growth monitoring of biotechnical relevant microorganism and cell lines in single-use shake flasks

In the context of this work we evaluated a multisensory, noninvasive prototype platform for shake flask cultivations by monitoring three basic parameters (pH, pO2 and biomass). The focus lies on the evaluation of the biomass sensor based on backward light scattering. The application spectrum was expanded to four new organisms in addition to E. coli K12 and S. cerevisiae [1]. It could be shown that the sensor is appropriate for a wide range of standard microorganisms, e.g., L. zeae, K. pastoris, A. niger and CHO-K1. The biomass sensor signal could successfully be correlated and calibrated with well-known measurement methods like OD600, cell dry weight (CDW) and cell concentration. Logarithmic and Bleasdale-Nelder derived functions were adequate for data fitting. Measurements at low cell concentrations proved to be critical in terms of a high signal to noise ratio, but the integration of a custom made light shade in the shake flask improved these measurements significantly. This sensor based measurement method has a high potential to initiate a new generation of online bioprocess monitoring. Metabolic studies will particularly benefit from the multisensory data acquisition. The sensor is already used in labscale experiments for shake flask cultivations.

Community satisfaction with indoor residue spraying for Malaria control in Karonga, Northern Malawi

Background The Malawi National Malaria Control Program conducted Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) in 2010 and 2013 in selected hot districts along the valleys including Karonga, but no study has been done to measure community satisfaction levels in these areas. Aim To assess satisfaction levels of community with IRS in both rural and urban settings, in Karonga district. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in urban village of Mwahimba and rural village of Fundi. Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from households’ representatives through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) using De Wets’s Schutte tool. Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis while numbers and percentages were generated using Microsoft excel. Results Overall level of satisfaction in Fundi was estimated at 69% while that of Mwahimba was at 60.9%. In Fundi village, 66.1 % (37) of the household representatives were satisfied while in Mwahimba village, 60.7 % (34) were satisfied with the IRS programme. Factors that led to satisfaction were minimal adverse effects of the chemical on people after spraying, killing of other insects, sprayer’ courtesy and good communication. Factors behind dissatisfaction include: short residual effect of the chemical used, over-dilution of the chemical and minimal community involvement. Conclusion Despite finding high satisfaction levels in rural village than in an urban village, overall all the villages reported low levels of satisfaction with IRS due to various factors some of which common to both villages. Karonga District Health Office needs to involve the community in the process of spraying by recruiting sprayers from the target area and also explaining the purpose of dilution and the dilution factor to community members.

Direct numerical simulation of statistically stationary and homogeneous shear turbulence and its relation to other shear flows

Statistically stationary and homogeneous shear turbulence (SS-HST) is investigated by means of a new direct numerical simulation code, spectral in the two horizontal directions and compact-finite-differences in the direction of the shear. No remeshing is used to impose the shear-periodic boundary condition. The influence of the geometry of the computational box is explored. Since HST has no characteristic outer length scale and tends to fill the computational domain, long-term simulations of HST are “minimal” in the sense of containing on average only a few large-scale structures. It is found that the main limit is the spanwise box width, Lz, which sets the length and velocity scales of the turbulence, and that the two other box dimensions should be sufficiently large (Lx ≳ 2Lz, Ly ≳ Lz) to prevent other directions to be constrained as well. It is also found that very long boxes, Lx ≳ 2Ly, couple with the passing period of the shear-periodic boundary condition, and develop strong unphysical linearized bursts. Within those limits, the flow shows interesting similarities and differences with other shear flows, and in particular with the logarithmic layer of wall-bounded turbulence. They are explored in some detail. They include a self-sustaining process for large-scale streaks and quasi-periodic bursting. The bursting time scale is approximately universal, ∼20S−1, and the availability of two different bursting systems allows the growth of the bursts to be related with some confidence to the shearing of initially isotropic turbulence. It is concluded that SS-HST, conducted within the proper computational parameters, is a very promising system to study shear turbulence in general.

Cork structural characteristics and their influence on the oxygen ingress through wine stoppers

Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Sex-biased differences in the effects of host individual, host population and environmental traits driving tick parasitism in red deer

The interactions between host individual, host population, and environmental factors modulate parasite abundance in a given host population. Since adult exophilic ticks are highly aggregated in red deer (Cervus elaphus) and this ungulate exhibits significant sexual size dimorphism, life history traits and segregation, we hypothesized that tick parasitism on males and hinds would be differentially influenced by each of these factors. To test the hypothesis, ticks from 306 red deer-182 males and 124 females-were collected during 7 years in a red deer population in south-central Spain. By using generalized linear models, with a negative binomial error distribution and a logarithmic link function, we modeled tick abundance on deer with 20 potential predictors. Three models were developed: one for red deer males, another for hinds, and one combining data for males and females and including "sex" as factor. Our rationale was that if tick burdens on males and hinds relate to the explanatory factors in a differential way, it is not possible to precisely and accurately predict the tick burden on one sex using the model fitted on the other sex, or with the model that combines data from both sexes. Our results showed that deer males were the primary target for ticks, the weight of each factor differed between sexes, and each sex specific model was not able to accurately predict burdens on the animals of the other sex. That is, results support for sex-biased differences. The higher weight of host individual and population factors in the model for males show that intrinsic deer factors more strongly explain tick burden than environmental host-seeking tick abundance. In contrast, environmental variables predominated in the models explaining tick burdens in hinds.

Next-to-soft radiative corrections in QCD and quantum gravity

The origin of divergent logarithmic contributions to gauge theory cross sections arising from soft and collinear radiation is explored and a general prescription for tackling next-to-soft logarithms is presented. The NNLO Abelian-like contributions to the Drell-Yan K-factor are reproduced using this generalised prescription. The soft limit of gravity is explored where the interplay between the eikonal phase and Reggeization of the graviton is explained using Wilson line techniques. The Wilson line technique is then implemented to treat the set of next-to-soft contributions arising from dressing external partons with a next-to-soft Wilson line.

Geographical patterns of the species richness of helminth parasites of moles (Talpa spp.) in Spain: Separating the effects of sampling effort from those of other conditioning factors

We analysed the viscera of 534 moles (Ta l p a spp.) from 30 of the 47 provinces of peninsular Spain, including 255 individuals of T. europaea from eight provinces, 154 individuals of T. occidentalis from 20 provinces, and 125 unidentified Ta l p a individuals from two provinces. We identified their helminth parasites and determined parasite species richness. We related parasite species richness with sampling effort using both a linear and a logarithmic function. We then performed stepwise linear regressions to predict mole parasite species richness from a small set of selected predictor variables that included sampling effort. We applied the resulting models to forecast T. euro p a e a, T. occidentalis, and Ta l p a spp. parasite species richness in all provinces with recorded host presence, assuming different levels of sampling eff o r t . F i n a l l y, we used partial regression analysis to partition the variation explained by each of the selected variables in the models. We found that mole parasite species richness is strongly conditioned by sampling effort, but that other factors such as cropland area and environmental disturbance have significant independent effects.

Effects of clouds on the surface shortwave radiation at a rural inland mid-latitude site

Seven years (2003–2010) of measured shortwave (SW) irradiances were used to obtain estimates of the 10 min averaged effective cloud optical thickness (ECOT) and of the shortwave cloud radiative effect (CRESW) at the surface in a mid-latitude site (Évora — south of Portugal), and its seasonal variability is presented. The ECOT, obtained using transmittance measurements at 415 nm, was compared with the correspondent MODIS cloud optical thickness (MODIS COT) for non-precipitating water clouds and cloud fractions higher than 0.25. This comparison showed that the ECOT represents well the cloud optical thickness over the study area. The CRESW, determined for two SW broadband ranges (300–1100 nm; 285–2800 nm), was normalized (NCRESW) and related with the obtained ECOT. A logarithmic relation between NCRESW and ECOT was found for both SW ranges, presenting lower dispersion for overcast-sky situations than for partially cloudy-sky situations. The NCRESW efficiency (NCRESW per unit of ECOT) was also related with the ECOT for overcast-sky conditions. The relation found is parameterized by a power law function showing that NCRESW efficiency decreases as the ECOT increases, approaching one for ECOT values higher than about 50.