Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

High-temperature heat capacity and heat content of CaCu3Ti4O12 (CCTO)

The isobaric heat capacity of CaCu3Ti4O12 (CCTO) was measured from 300 to 1100 K using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The results were verified using drop calorimetric measurement of enthalpy increment (H-T - H-298.15) at T= 973 and 1073 K. The samples were dropped from room temperature into a calorimeter maintained at high temperature. The results show small negative deviation from Neumann-Kopp rule. The enthalpy and entropy increments are computed as a function of temperature and compared with values available in the literature. The results obtained in this study are consistent with available information on enthalpy and Gibbs energy of formation of CCTO.

The influence of the Coriolis force on flux tubes rising through the solar convection zone

In order to study the effect of the Coriolis force due to solar rotation on rising magnetic flux, the authors consider a flux ring, azimuthally symmetric around the rotation axis, starting from rest at the bottom of the convection zone, and then follow the trajectory of the flux ring as it rises. If it is assumed that the flux ring remains azimuthally symmetric during its ascent, then the problem can be described essentially in terms of two parameters: the value of the initial magnetic field in the ring when it starts, and the effective drag experienced by it. For field strengths at the bottom of the convection zone of order 10,000 G or less, it is found that the Coriolis force plays a dominant role and flux rings starting from low latitudes at the bottom are deflected and emerge at latitudes significantly poleward of sunspot zones.

The evolution of loop structures in flux rings within the solar convection zone

Choudhuri and Gilman (1987) considered certain implications of the hypothesis that the magnetic flux within the Sun is generated at the bottom of the convection zone and then rises through it. Taking flux rings symmetric around the rotation axis and using reasonable values of different parameters, they found that the Coriolis force deflects these flux rings into trajectories parallel to the rotation axis so that they emerge at rather high latitudes. This paper looks into the question of whether the action of the Coriolis force is subdued when the initial configuration of the flux ring has non-axisymmetries in the form of loop structures. The results depend dramatically on whether the flux ring with the loops lies completely within the convection zone or whether the lower parts of it are embedded in the stable layers underneath the convection zone. In the first case, the Coriolis force supresses the non-axisymmetric perturbations so that the flux ring tends to remain symmetric and the trajectories are very similar to those of Choudhuri and Gilman (1987). In the second case, however, the lower parts of the flux ring may remain anchored underneath the bottom of the convection zone, but the upper parts of the loops still tend to move parallel to the rotation axis and emerge at high latitudes. Thus the problem of the magnetic flux not being able to come out at the sunspot latitudes still persists after the non-axisymmetries in the flux rings are taken into account.

Theoretical Studies of Hard Filling in Loop Heat Pipes

Loop heat pipe is a passive two-phase heat transport device that is gaining importance as a part of spacecraft thermal control systems and also in applications (such as in avionic cooling and submarines). Hard fill of a loop heat pipe occurs when the compensation chamber is full of liquid. A theoretical study is undertaken to investigate the issues underlying the loop beat pipe hard-fill phenomenon. The results of the study suggest that the mass of charge and the presence of a bayonet have significant impact on the loop heat pipe operation. With a largern mass of charge, a loop heat pipe hard fills at a lower heat load. As the heat load increases, there is a steep rise in the loop heat pipe operating temperature. In a loop heat pipe with a saturated compensation chamber, and also in a hard-filled loop heat pipe without a bayonet, the temperature of the compensation chamber and that of the liquid core are nearly equal. When a loop heat pipe with a bayonet hard fills, the compensation chamber and the evaporator core temperatures are different.

Convective heat-transfer rate distributions over a missile shaped body flying at hypersonic speeds

Experiments are carried out with air as the test gas to obtain the surface convective heating rate on a missile shaped body flying at hypersonic speeds. The effect of fins on the surface heating rates of missile frustum is also investigated. The tests are performed in a hypersonic shock tunnel at stagnation enthalpy of 2 MJ/kg and zero degree angle of attack. The experiments are conducted at flow Mach number of 5.75 and 8 with an effective test time of 1 ms. The measured stagnation-point heat-transfer data compares well with the theoretical value estimated using Fay and Riddell expression. The measured heat-transfer rate with fin configuration is slightly higher than that of model without fin. The normalized values of experimentally measured heat transfer rate and Stanton number compare well with the numerically estimated results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Risk for Type 1 Diabetes in Children of Affected Families and in the General Population : Role of Immunological and Metabolic Markers

Background and aims. Type 1 diabetes (T1D), an autoimmune disease in which the insulin producing beta cells are gradually destroyed, is preceded by a prodromal phase characterized by appearance of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in circulation. Both the timing of the appearance of autoantibodies and their quality have been used in the prediction of T1D among first-degree relatives of diabetic patients (FDRs). So far, no general strategies for identifying individuals at increased disease risk in the general population have been established, although the majority of new cases originate in this population. The current work aimed at assessing the predictive role of diabetes-associated immunologic and metabolic risk factors in the general population, and comparing these factors with data obtained from studies on FDRs. Subjects and methods. Study subjects in the current work were subcohorts of participants of the Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study (DiMe; n=755), the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (LASERI; n=3475), and the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study (DIPP) Study subjects (n=7410). These children were observed for signs of beta-cell autoimmunity and progression to T1D, and the results obtained were compared between the FDRs and the general population cohorts. --- Results and conclusions. By combining HLA and autoantibody screening, T1D risks similar to those reported for autoantibody-positive FDRs are observed in the pediatric general population. Progression rate to T1D is high in genetically susceptible children with persistent multipositivity. Measurement of IAA affinity failed in stratifying the risk assessment in young IAA-positive children with HLA-conferred disease susceptibility, among whom affinity of IAA did not increase during the prediabetic period. Young age at seroconversion, increased weight-for-height, decreased early insulin response, and increased IAA and IA-2A levels predict T1D in young children with genetic disease susceptibility and signs of advanced beta-cell autoimmunity. Since the incidence of T1D continues to increase, efforts aimed at preventing T1D are important, and reliable disease prediction is needed both for intervention trials and for effective and safe preventive therapies in the future. Our observations confirmed that combined HLA-based screening and regular autoantibody measurements reveal similar disease risks in pediatric general population as those seen in prediabetic FDRs, and that risk assessment can be stratified further by studying glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects. As these screening efforts are feasible in practice, the knowledge now obtained can be exploited while designing intervention trials aimed at secondary prevention of T1D.

Effects of compressibility and heat release on entrainment processes in mixing layers

Characteristics of the process of entrainment in plane mixing layers, and the changes with compressibility and heat release, were studied using temporal DNS with simultaneous fluid packet tracking. Convective Mach numbers of the simulations are 0.15, 0.7 and 1.1. The Reynolds number is quite high (between 11 000 and 37 000 based on layer width and velocity difference), and is above the mixing transition. The study agrees with recent findings in round jets: first, engulfed fluid volume and its growth rate are both very small compared with the volume of the turbulent region and its growth rate, respectively. Secondly, most often, the process occurs close to the turbulent-nonturbulent boundaries. A new finding is that both compressibility and heat release retard the entrainment process so that it takes an O(1) time for vorticity or scalar levels to grow even after growth has been initiated. This delay is manifested as the fall in mixing layer growth rates as compressibility and heat release levels increase.

Affected sibling pairs with juvenile idiopathic arthritis : An immunogenetic study of the disease in multicase families

Genetic susceptibility to juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) was studied in the genetically homogeneous Finnish population by collecting families with two or three patients affected by this disease from cases seen in the Rheumatism Foundation Hospital. The number of families ranged in different studies from 37 to 45 and the total number of patients with JIA, from among whom these cases were derived, was 2 000 to 2 300. Characteristics of the disease in affected siblings in Finland were compared with a population-based series and with a sibling series from the United States. A thorough clinical and ophthalmological examination was made of all affected patients belonging to sibpair series. Information on the occurrence of chronic rheumatic diseases in parents was collected by questionnaire and diagnoses were confirmed from hospital records. All patients, their parents and most of the healthy sibs were typed for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles in loci A, C, B, DR and DQ. The HLA allele distribution of the cases was compared with corresponding data from Finnish bone marrow donors. The genetic component in JIA was found to be more significant than previously believed. A concordance rate of 25% for a disease with a population prevalence of 1 per 1000 implied a relative risk of 250 for a monozygotic (MZ) twin. An estimate for the sibling risk of an affected individual was about 15- to 20-fold. The disease was basically similar in familial and sporadic cases; the mean age at disease onset was however lower in familial cases, (4.8 years vs 7.4 years). Three sibpairs (3.4 expected) were concordant for the presence of asymptomatic uveitis. Uveitis would thus not appear to have any genetic component of its own, separate from the genetic basis of JIA. Four of the parents had JIA (0.2 cases expected), four had a type of rheumatoid factor-negative arthritis similar to that seen in juvenile patients but commencing in adulthood, and one had spondyloarthropathy (SPA). These findings provide additional support for the conception of a genetic predisposition to JIA and suggest the existence of a new disease entity, JIA of adult onset. Both the linkage analysis of the affected sibpairs and the association analysis of nuclear families provided overwhelming evidence of a major contribution of HLA to the genetic susceptibility to JIA. The association analysis in the Finnish population confirmed that the most significant associations prevailed for DRB1*0801, DQB1*0402, as expected from previous observations, and indicated the independent role of Cw*0401.

The effect of high versus low intensity heat acclimation on performance and neuromuscular responses

This study examined the effect of exercise intensity and duration during 5-day heat acclimation (HA) on cycling performance and neuromuscular responses. 20 recreationally trained males completed a ‘baseline’ trial followed by 5 consecutive days HA, and a ‘post-acclimation’ trial. Baseline and post-acclimation trials consisted of maximal voluntary contractions (MVC), a single and repeated countermovement jump protocol, 20 km cycling time trial(TT) and 5x6 s maximal sprints (SPR). Cycling trials were undertaken in 33.0 ± 0.8 °C and 60 ± 3% relative humidity.Core(Tcore), and skin temperatures (Tskin), heart rate (HR), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and thermal sensation were recorded throughout cycling trials. Participants were assigned to either 30 min high-intensity (30HI) or 90 min low-intensity (90LI) cohorts for HA, conducted in environmental conditions of 32.0 ± 1.6 °C. Percentage change time to complete the 20 km TT for the 90LI cohort was significantly improved post-acclimation(-5.9 ± 7.0%; P=0.04) compared to the 30HI cohort (-0.18 ± 3.9%; P<0.05). The 30HI cohort showed greatest improvements in power output (PO) during post-acclimation SPR1 and 2 compared to 90LI (546 ± 128 W and 517 ± 87 W,respectively; P<0.02). No differences were evident for MVC within 30HI cohort, however, a reduced performance indicated by % change within the 90LI (P=0.04). Compared to baseline, mean Tcore was reduced post-acclimation within the 30HI cohort (P=0.05) while mean Tcore and HR were significantly reduced within the 90LI cohort (P=0.01 and 0.04, respectively). Greater physiological adaptations and performance improvements were noted within the 90LI cohort compared to the 30HI. However, 30HI did provide some benefit to anaerobic performance including sprint PO and MVC. These findings suggest specifying training duration and intensity during heat acclimation may be useful for specific post-acclimation performance.

Design of plane sand-bed channels affected by seepage

The importance of seepage in the design of channels is discussed. Experimental investigations reveal that seepage, either in the downward direction (suction) or in the upward direction (injection), can significantly change the resistance as well as the mobility of the sand-bed particles. A resistance equation relating 'particle Reynolds number' and 'shear Reynolds number' under seepage conditions is developed for plane sediment beds. Finally, a detailed design procedure of the plane sediment beds affected by seepage is presented.

Numerical studies on channel formation and growth during solidification: Effect of process parameters

In the present work, solidification of a hyper-eutectic ammonium chloride solution in a bottom-cooled cavity (i.e. with stable thermal gradient) is numerically studied. A Rayleigh number based criterion is developed, which determines the conditions favorable for freckles formation. This criterion, when expressed in terms of physical properties and process parameters, yields the condition for plume formation as a function of concentration, liquid fraction, permeability, growth rate of a mushy layer and thermophysical properties. Subsequently, numerical simulations are performed for cases with initial and boundary conditions favoring freckle formation. The effects of parameters, such as cooling rate and initial concentration, on the formation and growth of freckles are investigated. It was found that a high cooling rate produced larger and more defined channels which are retained for a longer durations. Similarly, a lower initial concentration of solute resulted in fewer but more pronounced channels. The number and size of channels are also found to be related to the mushy zone thickness. The trends predicted with regard to the variation of number of channels with time under different process conditions are in accordance with the experimental observations reported in the literature.

Turbulent vertical fluxes and air quality measured in urban air in Helsinki

There is a growing need to understand the exchange processes of momentum, heat and mass between an urban surface and the atmosphere as they affect our quality of life. Understanding the source/sink strengths as well as the mixing mechanisms of air pollutants is particularly important due to their effects on human health and climate. This work aims to improve our understanding of these surface-atmosphere interactions based on the analysis of measurements carried out in Helsinki, Finland. The vertical exchange of momentum, heat, carbon dioxide (CO2) and aerosol particle number was measured with the eddy covariance technique at the urban measurement station SMEAR III, where the concentrations of ultrafine, accumulation mode and coarse particle numbers, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) were also measured. These measurements were carried out over varying measurement periods between 2004 and 2008. In addition, black carbon mass concentration was measured at the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council site during three campaigns in 1996-2005. Thus, the analyzed dataset covered far, the most comprehensive long-term measurements of turbulent fluxes reported in the literature from urban areas. Moreover, simultaneously measured urban air pollution concentrations and turbulent fluxes were examined for the first time. The complex measurement surrounding enabled us to study the effect of different urban covers on the exchange processes from a single point of measurement. The sensible and latent heat fluxes closely followed the intensity of solar radiation, and the sensible heat flux always exceeded the latent heat flux due to anthropogenic heat emissions and the conversion of solar radiation to direct heat in urban structures. This urban heat island effect was most evident during winter nights. The effect of land use cover was seen as increased sensible heat fluxes in more built-up areas than in areas with high vegetation cover. Both aerosol particle and CO2 exchanges were largely affected by road traffic, and the highest diurnal fluxes reached 109 m-2 s-1 and 20 µmol m-2 s-1, respectively, in the direction of the road. Local road traffic had the greatest effect on ultrafine particle concentrations, whereas meteorological variables were more important for accumulation mode and coarse particle concentrations. The measurement surroundings of the SMEAR III station served as a source for both particles and CO2, except in summer, when the vegetation uptake of CO2 exceeded the anthropogenic sources in the vegetation sector in daytime, and we observed a downward median flux of 8 µmol m-2 s-1. This work improved our understanding of the interactions between an urban surface and the atmosphere in a city located at high latitudes in a semi-continental climate. The results can be utilised in urban planning, as the fraction of vegetation cover and vehicular activity were found to be the major environmental drivers affecting most of the exchange processes. However, in order to understand these exchange and mixing processes on a city scale, more measurements above various urban surfaces accompanied by numerical modelling are required.