Le scelte di investimento delle aziende agricole e la PAC post-2013: valutazione di scenari mediante un modello real options

Negli ultimi decenni la Politica Agricola Comune (PAC) è stata sottoposta a diverse revisioni, più o meno programmate, che ne hanno modificato gli obiettivi operativi e gli strumenti per perseguirli. In letteratura economica agraria sono state eseguite diverse ricerche che affrontano analisi ex-ante sui possibili impatti delle riforme politiche, in particolare al disaccoppiamento, riguardo all’allocazione dei terreni alle diverse colture e all’adozione di tecniche di coltivazione più efficienti. Ma tale argomento, nonostante sia di grande importanza, non è stato finora affrontato come altri temi del mondo agricolo. Le principali lacune si riscontrano infatti nella carenza di analisi ex-ante, di modelli che includano le preferenze e le aspettative degli agricoltori. Questo studio valuta le scelte di investimento in terreno di un’azienda agricola di fronte a possibili scenari PAC post-2013, in condizioni di incertezza circa le specifiche condizioni in cui ciascuno scenario verrebbe a verificarsi. L’obiettivo è di ottenere indicazioni utili in termini di comprensione delle scelte di investimento dell’agricoltore in presenza di incertezza sul futuro. L’elemento maggiormente innovativo della ricerca consiste nell’applicazione di un approccio real options e nell’interazione tra la presenza di diversi scenari sul futuro del settore agricolo post-2013, e la componente di incertezza che incide e gravita su di essi. La metodologia adottata nel seguente lavoro si basa sulla modellizzazione di un’azienda agricola, in cui viene simulato il comportamento dell’azienda agricola in reazione alle riforme della PAC e alla variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti in presenza di incertezza. Mediante un modello di Real Option viene valutata la scelta della tempistica ottimale per investire nell’acquisto di terreno (caratterizzato da incertezza e irreversibilità). Dai risultati emerge come in presenza di incertezza all’agricoltore convenga rimandare la decisione a dopo il 2013 e in base alle maggiori informazioni disponibili eseguire l’investimento solo in presenza di condizioni favorevoli. La variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti influenza le scelte più dell’incertezza dei contributi PAC. Il Real Option sembra interpretare meglio il comportamento dell’agricoltore rispetto all’approccio classico del Net Present Value.

A farm-level programming model to compare the atmospheric impact of conventional and organic farming

A model is developed to represent the activity of a farm using the method of linear programming. Two are the main components of the model, the balance of soil fertility and the livestock nutrition. According to the first, the farm is supposed to have a total requirement of nitrogen, which is to be accomplished either through internal sources (manure) or through external sources (fertilisers). The second component describes the animal husbandry as having a nutritional requirement which must be satisfied through the internal production of arable crops or the acquisition of feed from the market. The farmer is supposed to maximise total net income from the agricultural and the zoo-technical activities by choosing one rotation among those available for climate and acclivity. The perspective of the analysis is one of a short period: the structure of the farm is supposed to be fixed without possibility to change the allocation of permanent crops and the amount of animal husbandry. The model is integrated with an environmental module that describes the role of the farm within the carbon-nitrogen cycle. On the one hand the farm allows storing carbon through the photosynthesis of the plants and the accumulation of carbon in the soil; on the other some activities of the farm emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The model is tested for some representative farms of the Emilia-Romagna region, showing to be capable to give different results for conventional and organic farming and providing first results concerning the different atmospheric impact. Relevant data about the representative farms and the feasible rotations are extracted from the FADN database, with an integration of the coefficients from the literature.

Technology Development and Consumer Acceptance of Innovation in Fruit Production

Precision Agriculture (PA) and the more specific branch of Precision Horticulture are two very promising sectors. They focus on the use of technologies in agriculture to optimize the use of inputs, so to reach a better efficiency, and minimize waste of resources. This important objective motivated many researchers and companies to search new technology solutions. Sometimes the effort proved to be a good seed, but sometimes an unfeasible idea. So that PA, from its birth more or less 25 years ago, is still a “new” management, interesting for the future, but an actual low adoption rate is still reported by experts and researchers. This work aims to give a contribution in finding the causes of this low adoption rate and proposing a methodological solution to this problem. The first step was to examine prior research about Precision Agriculture adoption, by ex ante and ex post approach. It was supposed as important to find connections between these two phases of a purchase experience. In fact, the ex ante studies dealt with potential consumer’s perceptions before a usage experience occurred, therefore before purchasing a technology, while the ex post studies described the drivers which made a farmer become an end-user of PA technology. Then, an example of consumer research is presented. This was an ex ante research focused on pre-prototype technology for fruit production. This kind of research could give precious information about consumer acceptance before reaching an advanced development phase of the technology, and so to have the possibility to change something with the least financial impact. The final step was to develop the pre-prototype technology that was the subject of the consumer acceptance research and test its technical characteristics.

Molecular genetic investigation of the Neolithic population history in the western Carpathian Basin

Der Fokus dieser Dissertation ist die populationsgenetische Analyse der neolithischen Bevölkerungswechsel in den 6.-5. Jahrtausende vor Christus, die im westlichen Karpatenbecken stattfanden. Die Zielsetzung der Studie war, mittels der Analyse von mitochondrialer und Y-chromosomaler aDNA, den Genpool der sechs neolithischen und kupferzeitlichen Populationen zu untersuchen und die daraus resultierenden Ergebnisse mit anderen prähistorischen und modernen genetischen Daten zu vergleichen.rnInsgesamt wurden 323 Individuen aus 32 ungarischen, kroatischen und slowakischen Fundplätzen beprobt und bearbeitet in den archäogenetischen Laboren der Johannes Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz. Die DNA Ergebnisse wurden mit verschiedenen populationsgenetischen Methoden ausgewertet. Vergleichsdaten von prähistorischen und modernen eurasiatischen Populationen wurden dazu gesammelt.rnDie HVS-I Region der mitochondrialen DNA konnten bei 256 Individuen reproduziert und authentifiziert werden (mit einer Erfolgsrate von 85.9%). Die Typisierung der HVS-II Region war in 80 Fällen erfolgreich. Testend alle gut erhaltene Proben, die Y-chromosomale Haplogruppe konnte in 33 männlichen Individuen typisiert werden.rnDie neolithischen, mitochondrialen Haplogruppen deuten auf eine hohe Variabilität des maternalen Genpools hin. Sowohl die mitochondrialen als auch die Y-chromosomalen Daten lassen Rückschlüsse auf eine nah-östliche bzw. südwestasiatische Herkunft der frühen Bauern zu. Die Starčevo- und linearbandkermaischen-Populationen in westlichem Karpatenbecken (letztere abgekürzt als LBKT) und die linearbandkermaischen-Population in Mitteleuropa (LBK) haben so starke genetische Ähnlichkeit, dass die Verbreitung der LBK nach Mitteleuropa mit vorangegangenen Wanderungsereignissen zu erklären ist. Die Transdanubische aDNA Daten zeigen hohe Affinität zu den publizierten prähistorischen aDNA Datensätzen von Mitteleuropa aus den 6.-4. Jahrtausende vor Chr. Die maternal-genetische Variabilität der Starčevo-Population konnte auch innerhalb der nachfolgenden Populationen Transdanubiens festgestellt werden. Nur kleinere Infiltrationen und Immigrationsereignissen konnten während der Vinča-, LBKT-, Sopot- und Balaton-Lasinja-Kultur in Transdanubien identifiziert werden. Zwischen den transdanubischen Regionen konnten mögliche genetische Unterschiede nur in der LBKT und in der Lengyel-Periode beobachtet werden, als sich die nördlichen Gruppen von den südlichen Populationen trennten. rnDie festgestellte Heterogenität der mtDNA in Zusammenhang mit der Y-chromosomalen Homogenität in den Starčevo- und LBK-Populationen, weisen auf patrilokale Residenzregeln und patrilineare Abstammungsregeln in den ersten Bauergemeinschaften hin. rnObwohl die hier präsentierten Daten einen großen Fortschritt in der Forschung von aDNA und Neolithikum des Karpatenbeckens und Mitteleuropas bedeuten, werfen sie auch mehrere Fragen auf, deren Beantwortung durch zukünftige Genomforschungen erbracht werden könnte.

Tradeoffs or Synergies? Assessing Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement through Case Studies in Burkina Faso and Guatemala

We compare the impacts across a range of criteria of local and regional procurement (LRP) relative to transoceanic shipment of food aid in Burkina Faso and Guatemala. We find that neither instrument dominates the other across all criteria in either country, although LRP commonly performs at least as well as transoceanic shipment with respect to timeliness, cost, market price impacts, satisfying recipients' preferences, food quality and safety, and in benefiting smallholder suppliers. LRP is plainly a valuable food assistance tool, but its advantages and disadvantages must be carefully weighed, compared, and prioritized depending on the context and program objectives. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

STrengthening the reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology-Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility, and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating the interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and the body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as STrengthening Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology-Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE Statement implementing 9 existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology--Molecular Epidemiology STROBE-ME: an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating the interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrengthening Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology -Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE statement implementing 9 existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating the interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and the body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrenghtening Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE Statement implementing 9 existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology--Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating interactions between external and / or endogenous agents and body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrengthening Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE statement implementing nine existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrengthening Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology -Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE statement implementing nine existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

Agricultural Policymaking: Interest Groups and Access to Governmental Officials

Conservation agriculture that focuses on soil recovery is both economically and environmentally sustainable. This lies in contrast with many of the current agricultural practices, which push for high production, which, in turn lead to over-depletion of the soil. Agricultural interest groups play a role in crafting farming policies with governmental officials. Therefore, my study examined three interest group types agribusinesses, farmer organizations, and environmental NGOs that seek to influence agricultural policy, specifically focusing on the federal farm bill, due to its large impact throughout the nation. The research in which data wasgathered through subject interviews, a literature review, and databases found that access to governmental officials affects the amount of influence a group can have. Access is contingent upon: 1) the number of networks (social, professional, and political), 2) amount of money spent through campaign contributions and lobbying expenditures, and 3) extent of business enterprises and subsidiaries. The evidence shows that there is a correlation between these variables and the extent of access. My research concludes that agribusiness interest groups have the most access to government officials, and thus have the greatest influence on agricultural policies. Because agribusinesses support subsidies of commodity-crops this indirectly impacts conservation agriculture, as the two programs compete in a zero-sum game for funding in the farm bills.

Bipolar disorder susceptibility region on chromosome 3q29 not confirmed in a case-control association study

We identified a bipolar disorder (BPD) susceptibility region on chromosome 3q29 in a genome-wide linkage scan (Bailer et al. 2002 (Biol Psychiatry 52: 40), NPL-score 4.09) and follow-up linkage analysis (Schosser et al. 2004 (J Psychiatr Res 38(3): 357), NPL-scores >3 with five markers). These findings were supported by further fine-mapping of this region (Schosser et al. 2007 (Eur Neuropsychopharmacol 17(6-7): 501)), finding NPL-scores >3.9 with SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) spanning a region of 3.46 Mbp in BPD families. Since genetic association studies are more powerful than linkage studies for detecting susceptibility genes of small effect size, we aimed to replicate these findings in an independent case-control sample collected in London (UK) and Vienna (Austria).

Comparison of the effect of a CIDR-Select synch versus a long-term CIDR based AI protocol on reproductive performance in multiparous dairy cows in Swiss dairy farms

Background Synchronization programs have become standard in the dairy industry in many countries. In Switzerland, these programs are not routinely used for groups of cows, but predominantly as a therapy for individual problem cows. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a CIDR-Select Synch and a 12-d CIDR protocol on the pregnancy rate in healthy, multiparous dairy cows in Swiss dairy farms. Methods Cows (N = 508) were randomly assigned to CIDR-Select Synch (N = 262) or 12-d CIDR (N = 246) protocols. Cows in the CIDR-Select Synch group received a CIDR and 2.5 ml of buserelin i.m. on d 0. On d 7, the CIDR insert was removed and 5 ml of dinoprost was administered i.m.. Cows in the 12-d CIDR group received the CIDR on d 0 and it was removed on d 12 (the routine CIDR protocol in Swiss dairies). On d 0 a milk sample for progesterone analysis was taken. Cows were inseminated upon observed estrus. Pregnancy was determined at or more than 35 days after artificial insemination. As a first step, the two groups were compared as to indication for treatment, breed, stud book, stall, pasture, and farmer's business using chi square tests or Fisher's exact test. Furthermore, groups were compared as to age, DIM, number of AI's, number of cows per farm, and yearly milk yield per cow using nonparametric ANOVA. A multiple logistic model was used to relate the success of the protocols to all of the available factors; in particular treatment (CIDR-Select Synch/12-d CIDR), milk progesterone value, age, DIM, previous treatment of the uterus, previous gynecological treatment, and number of preceding inseminations. Results The pregnancy rate was higher in cows following the CIDR-Select Synch compared to the 12-d CIDR protocol (50.4% vs. 22.4%; P < 0.0001). Conclusion The CIDR-Select Synch protocol may be highly recommended for multiparous dairy cows. The reduced time span of the progesterone insert decreased the number of days open, improved the pregnancy rate compared to the 12-d CIDR protocol and the cows did not to have to be handled more often.