Money laundering and virtual money: the bitcoin example

Money laundering operations faced multiple changes and become more complex, in line with financial innovation. Often, regulation does not follow that innovation, giving opportunity to take advantage of thes e gaps in less lawful activities. The bitcoin is a virtual currency that has grown significantly, both in value and in volume of transactions, in recent years. The dimension of the phenomenon led to an increasing surveillance from the financial supervisors . We search for evidence of the relationship between money laundering and transactions carried out in bitcoins, the most popular virtual currency at the moment. We analyse the official publications relating the two themes, academic research and the notori ety within the international media. The attitudes toward the bitcoin are diverse, but all share concerns about its future impact. Some sparse evidence indicates that bitcoin may be an opportunity for money laundering, however more data is required.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Use of Performance Measurement in the Public Sector: the case of the police service

Many public organisations have been under great pressure in recent years to increase the efficiency and transparency of outputs, to rationalise the use of public resources, and to increase the quality of service delivery. In this context, public organisations were encouraged to introduce the New Public Management reforms with the goal of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the performance organisation through a new public management model. This new public management model is based on measurement by outputs and outcomes, a clear definition of responsibilities, the transparency and accountability of governmental activities, and on a greater value for citizens. What type of performance measurement systems are used in police services? Based on the literature, we see that multidimensional models, such as the Balanced Scorecard, are important in many public organisations, like municipalities, universities, and hospitals. Police services are characterised by complex, diverse objectives and stakeholders. Therefore, performance measurement of these public services calls for a specific analysis. Based on a nationwide survey of all police chiefs of the Portuguese police force, we find that employee performance measurement is the main form of measurement. Also, we propose a strategic map for the Portuguese police service.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Brinquem comigo! : intervenção inclusiva junto de um jovem com perturbações emocionais

Este é um trabalho que pretende mostrar as estratégias e actividades que foram utilizadas junto de um jovem com perturbações emocionais e com dificuldades de inclusão, tanto em relação aos adultos e colegas, como em relação ao próprio sistema de ensino em geral. A consequência dessas problemáticas, afirma-se sob a forma de dificuldades de aprendizagem. Foi feito um levantamento das problemáticas, através da consulta de documentação diversa, aplicação de grelhas e questionários e conversas com as pessoas ligadas ao processo educativo deste aluno. A partir de toda a informação recolhida, procedemos à planificação e intervenção, aplicando estratégias e métodos de trabalho que têm como objectivo principal, a inclusão deste aluno, no meio escolar, desde a sua relação com as pessoas até o sentir-se bem num meio que até agora era rejeitado por ele. Esta inclusão processou-se a diferentes níveis: escolar, social e pessoal.

As teorias da origem das espécies nos manuais escolares portugueses de Ciências Naturais (1905-1959)

O ensino das teorias da origem das espécies no sistema de ensino liceal português ainda não está completamente esclarecido. Esta investigação visou contribuir para essa clarificação, ao mostrar o modo como os autores dos manuais de Ciências Naturais destinados ao ensino liceal, fizeram essa transposição, no período compreendido entre 1905 e 1959. Para tal, estudaram-se as perspectivas e as teorias da origem das espécies, os mecanismos e as provas do evolucionismo que apresentaram. Os resultados mostraram que a tipologia diversificada de mecanismos e de provas de evolução que transpuseram, evidencia que a argumentação em prol do evolucionismo continuou a dominar o discurso dos autores dos manuais desse período. Contudo, concorreram nesses manuais diversas explicações para a evolução das espécies, como o lamarckismo, o neolamarckismo, o darwinismo, o neodarwinismo, a ortogénese, o mutacionismo e o transformismo teísta. The teaching of the origin of species theories in the Portuguese secondary education hasn’t been completely clear yet. This investigation aimed to contribute to this clarification, showing the way the authors of secondary schools science textbooks, did that transposition, from 1905 to 1959. Therefore, there were studied the perspectives and the origin of species theories, the mechanisms and proves of evolutionism that they had presented. The results showed that the diverse typology of mechanisms and proves of evolution they had transposed, showed that the argumentation in favor of the evolutionism continued to domain the discourse of school textbooks authors from this period. However, there were many explanations in these textbooks for the evolution of species, such as Lamarckism, neoLamarckism, Darwinism, neoDarwinism, Orthogenesis, Mutationism and Theistic Evolutionism.

Modelos de resposta à interação entre fármacos anestésicos : análise de regressão e análise de Clusters

Os avanços tecnológicos e científicos, na área da saúde, têm vindo a aliar áreas como a Medicina e a Matemática, cabendo à ciência adequar de forma mais eficaz os meios de investigação, diagnóstico, monitorização e terapêutica. Os métodos desenvolvidos e os estudos apresentados nesta dissertação resultam da necessidade de encontrar respostas e soluções para os diferentes desafios identificados na área da anestesia. A índole destes problemas conduz, necessariamente, à aplicação, adaptação e conjugação de diferentes métodos e modelos das diversas áreas da matemática. A capacidade para induzir a anestesia em pacientes, de forma segura e confiável, conduz a uma enorme variedade de situações que devem ser levadas em conta, exigindo, por isso, intensivos estudos. Assim, métodos e modelos de previsão, que permitam uma melhor personalização da dosagem a administrar ao paciente e por monitorizar, o efeito induzido pela administração de cada fármaco, com sinais mais fiáveis, são fundamentais para a investigação e progresso neste campo. Neste contexto, com o objetivo de clarificar a utilização em estudos na área da anestesia de um ajustado tratamento estatístico, proponho-me abordar diferentes análises estatísticas para desenvolver um modelo de previsão sobre a resposta cerebral a dois fármacos durante sedação. Dados obtidos de voluntários serão utilizados para estudar a interação farmacodinâmica entre dois fármacos anestésicos. Numa primeira fase são explorados modelos de regressão lineares que permitam modelar o efeito dos fármacos no sinal cerebral BIS (índice bispectral do EEG – indicador da profundidade de anestesia); ou seja estimar o efeito que as concentrações de fármacos têm na depressão do eletroencefalograma (avaliada pelo BIS). Na segunda fase deste trabalho, pretende-se a identificação de diferentes interações com Análise de Clusters bem como a validação do respetivo modelo com Análise Discriminante, identificando grupos homogéneos na amostra obtida através das técnicas de agrupamento. O número de grupos existentes na amostra foi, numa fase exploratória, obtido pelas técnicas de agrupamento hierárquicas, e a caracterização dos grupos identificados foi obtida pelas técnicas de agrupamento k-means. A reprodutibilidade dos modelos de agrupamento obtidos foi testada através da análise discriminante. As principais conclusões apontam que o teste de significância da equação de Regressão Linear indicou que o modelo é altamente significativo. As variáveis propofol e remifentanil influenciam significativamente o BIS e o modelo melhora com a inclusão do remifentanil. Este trabalho demonstra ainda ser possível construir um modelo que permite agrupar as concentrações dos fármacos, com base no efeito no sinal cerebral BIS, com o apoio de técnicas de agrupamento e discriminantes. Os resultados desmontram claramente a interacção farmacodinâmica dos dois fármacos, quando analisamos o Cluster 1 e o Cluster 3. Para concentrações semelhantes de propofol o efeito no BIS é claramente diferente dependendo da grandeza da concentração de remifentanil. Em suma, o estudo demostra claramente, que quando o remifentanil é administrado com o propofol (um hipnótico) o efeito deste último é potenciado, levando o sinal BIS a valores bastante baixos.

Estudo mutacional em tumor de Wilms por sequenciação de nova geração

O Tumor de Wilms (TW) é o tumor renal mais comum da infância, com uma incidência de 1 em ~10000 crianças. Esta patologia é de etiologia genética complexa e diversificada. No entanto, cerca de um terço dos doentes apresenta mutações somáticas associadas aos genes WT1, CTNNB1, TP53 e/ou AMER1. Assim, foi desenvolvido um painel de amplicões destes 4 genes para a identificação de mutações num grupo de doentes portugueses com TW, através de uma metodologia baseada na sequenciação de nova geração. As bibliotecas de DNA foram preparadas a partir de amostras de sangue periférico e tumor de 36 doentes com TW e sequenciadas no MiSeq. Foram identificadas alterações somáticas em 7 dos 36 (19,4%) doentes estudados. Conclui-se que a sequenciação de um painel de genes é um método rápido para a deteção de mutações somáticas quando desenhado com cuidado de forma a serem evitados problemas de perda de cobertura.

Lanczos algorithm on the grassmann manifold

5th. European Congress on Computational Methods in Applied Sciences and Engineering (ECCOMAS 2008) 8th. World Congress on Computational Mechanics (WCCM8)

Methodology in the epidemiological research of respiratory diseases and environmental pollution

There are complex and diverse methodological problems involved in the clinical and epidemiological study of respiratory diseases and their etiological factors. The association of urban growth, industrialization and environmental deterioration with respiratory diseases makes it necessary to pay more attention to this research area with a multidisciplinary approach. Appropriate study designs and statistical techniques to analyze and improve our understanding of the pathological events and their causes must be implemented to reduce the growing morbidity and mortality through better preventive actions and health programs. The objective of the article is to review the most common methodological problems in this research area and to present the most available statistical tools used.

Auto-determinação e inclusão social das pessoas com deficiência mental - uma intervenção centrada no sujeito

Dotar as pessoas com deficiência mental com competências para se autodeterminarem e terem a oportunidade de concretizar a sua plena inclusão social, é um desafio colocado à sociedade actual. Torna-se importante colocar em prática o que diferentes autores e organizações como a American Association of Mental Retardation defendem, criando condições para que os profissionais, famílias e comunidade possam ser os facilitadores deste processo. Neste sentido foi implementado no Centro de Reabilitação de Ponte de Lima um modelo de intervenção específico baseado na promoção e desenvolvimento da autonomia pessoal, social e de realização da pessoa com deficiência mental e criado um instrumento de observação e registo que reflecte essa forma de intervenção designado por Protocolo de Registo e Avaliação de Competências - PRAC. Neste estudo realizou-se uma análise ao instrumento em causa, pretendendo dar um contributo para a sua posterior validação. Nesse sentido, utilizou-se uma metodologia qualitativa e quantitativa para analisar se o instrumento pode ou não ser considerado representativo da capacidade de autodeterminação; se é estável quando utilizado por mais que um utilizador; se descrimina os indivíduos com maior ou menor autonomia e se os itens quando sujeitos à análise factorial, evidenciam os constructos teóricos previamente traçados. Muito embora o PRAC tenha sido pensado e estruturado para pessoas com deficiência mental, neste estudo foi utilizado por um grupo diversificado de profissionais oriundos de áreas distintas o que veio comprovar que o instrumento pode ser utilizado em diferentes contextos e com público-alvo mais alargado. Os resultados evidenciados são consistentes, permitindo respostas positivas às questões elaboradas, é de referir contudo que necessitam de um maior aprofundamento de forma a estabelecer outro tipo de generalizações.

A Service Integration Platform for Collaborative Networks

Integrated manufacturing constitutes a complex system made of heterogeneous information and control subsystems. Those subsystems are not designed to the cooperation. Typically each subsystem automates specific processes, and establishes closed application domains, therefore it is very difficult to integrate it with other subsystems in order to respond to the needed process dynamics. Furthermore, to cope with ever growing marketcompetition and demands, it is necessary for manufacturing/enterprise systems to increase their responsiveness based on up-to-date knowledge and in-time data gathered from the diverse information and control systems. These have created new challenges for manufacturing sector, and even bigger challenges for collaborative manufacturing. The growing complexity of the information and communication technologies when coping with innovative business services based on collaborative contributions from multiple stakeholders, requires novel and multidisciplinary approaches. Service orientation is a strategic approach to deal with such complexity, and various stakeholders' information systems. Services or more precisely the autonomous computational agents implementing the services, provide an architectural pattern able to cope with the needs of integrated and distributed collaborative solutions. This paper proposes a service-oriented framework, aiming to support a virtual organizations breeding environment that is the basis for establishing short or long term goal-oriented virtual organizations. The notion of integrated business services, where customers receive some value developed through the contribution from a network of companies is a key element.

Particle swarm optimization applied to integrated demand response resources scheduling

The concept of demand response has a growing importance in the context of the future power systems. Demand response can be seen as a resource like distributed generation, storage, electric vehicles, etc. All these resources require the existence of an infrastructure able to give players the means to operate and use them in an efficient way. This infrastructure implements in practice the smart grid concept, and should accommodate a large number of diverse types of players in the context of a competitive business environment. In this paper, demand response is optimally scheduled jointly with other resources such as distributed generation units and the energy provided by the electricity market, minimizing the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player, who manages these resources and supplies the aggregated consumers. The optimal schedule is obtained using two approaches based on particle swarm optimization (with and without mutation) which are compared with a deterministic approach that is used as a reference methodology. A case study with two scenarios implemented in DemSi, a demand Response simulator developed by the authors, evidences the advantages of the use of the proposed particle swarm approaches.

A entrada na profissão do educador de infância: percursos singulares

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências da Educação - Especialidade Supervisão em Educação

Intelligent energy resources management in the context of smart grids

Smart grids are envisaged as infrastructures able to accommodate all centralized and distributed energy resources (DER), including intensive use of renewable and distributed generation (DG), storage, demand response (DR), and also electric vehicles (EV), from which plug-in vehicles, i.e. gridable vehicles, are especially relevant. Moreover, smart grids must accommodate a large number of diverse types or players in the context of a competitive business environment. Smart grids should also provide the required means to efficiently manage all these resources what is especially important in order to make the better possible use of renewable based power generation, namely to minimize wind curtailment. An integrated approach, considering all the available energy resources, including demand response and storage, is crucial to attain these goals. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource management that considers several Virtual Power Players (VPPs) managing a network with high penetration of distributed generation, demand response, storage units and network reconfiguration. The resources are controlled through a flexible SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) system that can be accessed by the evolved entities (VPPs) under contracted use conditions. A case study evidences the advantages of the proposed methodology to support a Virtual Power Player (VPP) managing the energy resources that it can access in an incident situation.