897 resultados para credibility deficit


Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study aimed to unravel the effects of climate, topography, soil, and grazing management on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia. We sampled for SOC stocks at 98 sites from 18 grazing properties across Queensland, Australia. These samples covered four nominal grazing management classes (Continuous, Rotational, Cell, and Exclosure), eight broad soil types, and a strong tropical to subtropical climatic gradient. Temperature and vapour-pressure deficit explained >80% of the variability of SOC stocks at cumulative equivalent mineral masses nominally representing 0-0.1 and 0-0.3m depths. Once detrended of climatic effects, SOC stocks were strongly influenced by total standing dry matter, soil type, and the dominant grass species. At 0-0.3m depth only, there was a weak negative association between stocking rate and climate-detrended SOC stocks, and Cell grazing was associated with smaller SOC stocks than Continuous grazing and Exclosure. In future, collection of quantitative information on stocking intensity, frequency, and duration may help to improve understanding of the effect of grazing management on SOC stocks. Further exploration of the links between grazing management and above- and below-ground biomass, perhaps inferred through remote sensing and/or simulation modelling, may assist large-area mapping of SOC stocks in northern Australia. © CSIRO 2013.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The results of research into the water relations and irrigation requirements of lychee are collated and reviewed. The stages of plant development are summarised, with an emphasis on factors influencing the flowering process. This is followed by reviews of plant water relations, water requirements, water productivity and, finally, irrigation systems. The lychee tree is native to the rainforests of southern China and northern Vietnam, and the main centres of production remain close to this area. In contrast, much of the research on the water relations of this crop has been conducted in South Africa, Australia and Israel where the tree is relatively new. Vegetative growth occurs in a series of flushes. Terminal inflorescences are borne on current shoot growth under cool (<15 °C), dry conditions. Trees generally do not produce fruit in the tropics at altitudes below 300 m. Poor and erratic flowering results in low and irregular fruit yields. Drought can enhance flowering in locations with dry winters. Roots can extract water from depths greater than 2 m. Diurnal trends in stomatal conductance closely match those of leaf water status. Both variables mirror changes in the saturation deficit of the air. Very little research on crop water requirements has been reported. Crop responses to irrigation are complex. In areas with low rainfall after harvest, a moderate water deficit before floral initiation can increase flowering and yield. In contrast, fruit set and yield can be reduced by a severe water deficit after flowering, and the risk of fruit splitting increased. Water productivity has not been quantified. Supplementary irrigation in South-east Asia is limited by topography and competition for water from the summer rice crop, but irrigation is practised in Israel, South Africa, Australia and some other places. Research is needed to determine the benefits of irrigation in different growing areas. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Inadvertent climate modification has led to an increase in urban temperatures compared to the surrounding rural area. The main reason for the temperature rise is the altered energy portioning of input net radiation to heat storage and sensible and latent heat fluxes in addition to the anthropogenic heat flux. The heat storage flux and anthropogenic heat flux have not yet been determined for Helsinki and they are not directly measurable. To the contrary, turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat in addition to net radiation can be measured, and the anthropogenic heat flux together with the heat storage flux can be solved as a residual. As a result, all inaccuracies in the determination of the energy balance components propagate to the residual term and special attention must be paid to the accurate determination of the components. One cause of error in the turbulent fluxes is the fluctuation attenuation at high frequencies which can be accounted for by high frequency spectral corrections. The aim of this study is twofold: to assess the relevance of high frequency corrections to water vapor fluxes and to assess the temporal variation of the energy fluxes. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat have been measured at SMEAR III station, Helsinki, since December 2005 using the eddy covariance technique. In addition, net radiation measurements have been ongoing since July 2007. The used calculation methods in this study consist of widely accepted eddy covariance data post processing methods in addition to Fourier and wavelet analysis. The high frequency spectral correction using the traditional transfer function method is highly dependent on relative humidity and has an 11% effect on the latent heat flux. This method is based on an assumption of spectral similarity which is shown not to be valid. A new correction method using wavelet analysis is thus initialized and it seems to account for the high frequency variation deficit. Anyhow, the resulting wavelet correction remains minimal in contrast to the traditional transfer function correction. The energy fluxes exhibit a behavior characteristic for urban environments: the energy input is channeled to sensible heat as latent heat flux is restricted by water availability. The monthly mean residual of the energy balance ranges from 30 Wm-2 in summer to -35 Wm-2 in winter meaning a heat storage to the ground during summer. Furthermore, the anthropogenic heat flux is approximated to be 50 Wm-2 during winter when residential heating is important.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The objective of this study was to investigate patterns of soil water extraction and drought resistance among genotypes of bermudagrass (Cynodon spp.) a perennial C-4 grass. Four wild Australian ecotypes (1-1, 25a1, 40-1, and 81-1) and four cultivars (CT2, Grand Prix, Legend, and Wintergreen) were examined in field experiments with rainfall excluded to monitor soil water extraction at 30-190 cm depths. In the study we defined drought resistance as the ability to maintain green canopy cover under drought. The most drought resistant genotypes (40-1 and 25a1) maintained more green cover (55-85% vs 5-10%) during water deficit and extracted more soil water (120-160 mm vs 77-107 mm) than drought sensitive genotypes, especially at depths from 50 to 110 cm, though all genotypes extracted water to 190 cm. The maintenance of green cover and higher soil water extraction were associated with higher stomatal conductance, photosynthetic rate and relative water content. For all genotypes, the pattern of water use as a percentage of total water use was similar across depth and time We propose the observed genetic variation was related to different root characteristics (root length density, hydraulic conductivity, root activity) although shoot sensitivity to drying soil cannot be ruled out.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Post-rainy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) production underpins the livelihood of millions in the semiarid tropics, where the crop is affected by drought. Drought scenarios have been classified and quantified using crop simulation. In this report, variation in traits that hypothetically contribute to drought adaptation (plant growth dynamics, canopy and root water conducting capacity, drought stress responses) were virtually introgressed into the most common post-rainy sorghum genotype, and the influence of these traits on plant growth, development, and grain and stover yield were simulated across different scenarios. Limited transpiration rates under high vapour pressure deficit had the highest positive effect on production, especially combined with enhanced water extraction capacity at the root level. Variability in leaf development (smaller canopy size, later plant vigour or increased leaf appearance rate) also increased grain yield under severe drought, although it caused a stover yield trade-off under milder stress. Although the leaf development response to soil drying varied, this trait had only a modest benefit on crop production across all stress scenarios. Closer dissection of the model outputs showed that under water limitation, grain yield was largely determined by the amount of water availability after anthesis, and this relationship became closer with stress severity. All traits investigated increased water availability after anthesis and caused a delay in leaf senescence and led to a ‘stay-green’ phenotype. In conclusion, we showed that breeding success remained highly probabilistic; maximum resilience and economic benefits depended on drought frequency. Maximum potential could be explored by specific combinations of traits.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This edition is marked by a strong Antipodean focus. The first three articles bring a critical Indigenous perspective to areas previously cosseted by Western understandings. Robyn Moore, using critical discourse analysis, takes Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s 2011 ‘Closing the Gap’ speech to task for naturalising Indigenous Australia’s position on the wrong side of the social and economic ‘gap’. She argues that, far from accepting white culpability, Gillard instead polishes cultural deficit understandings of Indigenous disadvantage by framing the social and economic divide in meritocratic terms. In so doing, Moore further argues, Gillard casts a benevolent light upon white Australia.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The aim of this research was to study how European churches contributed to the shaping of the Constitutional Treaty during the work of the Convention on the future of Europe through the public discussion forum, established by the Convention for this specific purpose in the years 2002 2003. In particular, this study sought to uncover the areas of interest brought up by the churches in their contributions, the objectives they pursued, and the approaches and arguments they employed to reach those objectives. The data for this study comprised all official submissions by European churches and church alliances to the Forum, totalling 21 contributions. A central criterion for inclusion of the data was that the organization can reasonably be assumed to represent the official position of one or more Christian churches within the European Union before the 2004 expansion. The contributing churches and organizations represent the vast majority of Christians in Europe. The data was analyzed using primarily qualitative content analysis. The research approach was a combination of abductive and inductive inference. Based on the analysis a two-fold theoretical framework was adopted, focusing on theories of public religion, secularization and deprivatization of religion, and of legitimation and collective identity. The main areas of interest found in the contributions of the churches were the value foundation of the European Union, which is demanded to coherently permeate all policies and actions of the EU, and the social dimension of Europe, which must be given equal status to the political and economic dimensions. In both areas the churches claim significant experience and expertise, which they want to see recognized in the Constituional Treaty through a formally guaranteed status for churches and religious communities in the EU. In their contributions the churches show a strong determination to secure a significant role for both religion and religious communities in the public life of Europe. As for the role of religion, they point out to its potential as a motivating and cohesive force in society and as a building block for a collective European identity, which is still missing. Churches also pursue a substantial public role for themselves beyond the spiritual dimension, permeating the secular areas of the social, political and economic dimensions. The arguments in suppport of such role are embedded in their interest and expertise in spiritual and other fundamental values and their broad involvement in providing social services. In this context churches use expressions inclusive of all religions and convictions, albeit clearly advocating the primacy of Europe's Christian heritage. Based on their historical role, their social involvement and their spiritual mission they use the public debate on the Constitutional Treaty to gain formal legitimacy for the public status of religion and religious communities, both nationally and on a European level, through appropriate provisions in the constitutional text. In return they offer the European Union ways of improving its own legitimacy by reducing the democratic and ideological deficit of the EU and advancing the development a collective European identity.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The aim of this study has been to discern what Manas Buthelezi (1935-), a black South African Lutheran theologian and later also a bishop, regards as the requirements a church has to fulfill in order to be credible in the apartheid society. Buthelezi’s dissertation and several articles written between the years 1968 and 1993 are the sources of this study. Also the lectures held in Heidelberg in 1972 are referred to. Systematic analysis is the method used. The question of the credibility of the church is studied through three concepts that play an important role in Buthelezi’s ecclesiological thought, namely the wholeness of life, incarnation and liberation. The notion of the wholeness of life stems from the African tradition. Buthelezi takes the concept into the Christian church: the church should realize that God is the Creator of all life and Christ the lord of every aspect of human existence. Life is one entity coram Deo. However, the church is not to become the world; solidarity between the two must remain critical as the church is also called to play a prophetic role in the society. The church is in an open relationship with the world. It has a unique message of forgiveness and reconciliation. Nevertheless, the message is not a possession of the church but it is addressed to the whole world. The meaning of incarnation comes close to that of the wholeness of life. Following the example of Christ’s incarnation, the church must become human in the reality of the people. The church in Soweto is to become the people of Soweto, that is, the church must become as vulnerable as the people are. An incarnate church cannot be immune to the oppression that people experience, because the people are the church. The church is therefore bound to suffer. Buthelezi’s theology of the cross is pragmatic: the suffering of the church aims at the liberation of the oppressed. At times the physical presence of the church by the side of the suffering people is the only way to preach the incarnate gospel. In the South Africa of the late 1960s onwards the liberation of the oppressed black people was high on the agenda of Black Theology. As a leader of the early South African Black Theology, Buthelezi is concerned about the racial injustice in his country. He urges the churches to join the struggle against it as one people of God. The notions of liberation and the wholeness of life emerge in Buthelezi’s holistic understanding of liberation that involves the inner liberation of the black spirit and the liberation of the economic, social and political aspects of life. Interpreting Tillich’s correlation method in the South African situation, and also paralleling other liberation theologians, Buthelezi takes the existential situation of the people as the starting point for liberation. The gospel has to respond to the existential questions of people. The church is called to work for the liberation of society but it must also be liberated itself. Buthelezi initiated the LWF statement on the status confessionis in South Africa (1977). In line with the statement, he calls for church unity on the human level. For the unity to be true, it has to be experienced on the grassroots’ level. All the three concepts covered urge the church to come down from any ivory tower and out of any spiritual haven it might hide in. A lot of the credibility of the church derives from the behavior of the people. Buthelezi’s concentration on how the people who constitute the church should live their faith leaves less attention to how God constitutes the church. I have labeled Buthelezi’s understanding of the church existential-Christocentric due to the emphasis he lays on the need of the church to take the existential situation of the people seriously and on the other hand, on Christ as the exemplar for the church.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper reports on outcomes of Phases One and Two of the ALTC Competitive Research and Development Project "Developing Strategies at the Pre-Service Level to Address Critical Teacher Attraction and Retention Issues in Australian Rural, Regional and Remote Schools." This project funded over two years aims to strengthen the capacity and credibility of universities to prepare rural, regional and remote educators, similar to the capacity and credibility that has been created in preparing Australia's rural, regional and remote health workers. There is a strong recognition of the fundamental importance of quality teaching experiences rural, regional and remote schools and throughout this project over 200 pre-service teachers have participated in a curriculum module/object and completed a survey that encourages them to consider teaching in regional Western Australia. The project has mapped current Western Australian rural, regional and remote pre-service teacher education curriculum and field experience model. This mapping completed a comparison of national information with the identification of rural, regional and remote education curriculum and/or field experience models used nationally and internationally. In particular results from Phase One and Two will be presented reporting on the findings of the first year of the project.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper reports on the outcomes of a two year ALTC Competitive Research and Development Project that aimed to "Develop Strategies at the Pre-Service Level to Address Critical Teacher Attraction and Retention Issues in Australian Rural, Regional and Remote Schools". As well as developing a ‘training framework’ and teaching guides to increase the capacity and credibility of four universities to prepare educators who might venture out of the metropolitan area to teach, data were gathered from pre-service and graduate teachers to analyse regional resilience. It was found that there was a strong likelihood to participate in a regional practicum and stay in a non-metropolitan community once they graduated from university if they had a positive attitude to regional Western Australia either through a family connection or previous experience. Recommendations from this study emphasise the importance of having pre-service students participate in positive regional experiences early in their university study.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.