Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Beyond the blue horizon : the role of industry in global environmental politics

by Joanne M. Kaufman.

PowerPoint Teaching Template - UoS blue flat.ppt

This PowerPoint file can be used as a template for teaching presentations. This version has a solid blue background and pale grey text on the title slide and all subsequent content slides.

PowerPoint Teaching Template - UoS blue & grey.ppt

This PowerPoint file can be used as a template for teaching presentations. This version has a blue fade background and pale grey text on the title slide and pale grey background and blue text on subsequent content slides.

PowerPoint Teaching Template - UoS blue fade.ppt

This PowerPoint file can be used as a template for teaching presentations. This version has a blue fade background and pale grey text on the title slide and all subsequent content slides.

Screen capture on the Mac

You can capture an image of your entire screen by typing Command-Shift-3. Typing Command-Shift-4 lets you choose a specific part of your screen. Region capture - you can change how the region selection area changes by using the following keys - note that you can release the original keys once the crosshairs appears, as long as you’ve started dragging your mouse, and you keep the mouse button down. • Space Bar: Press and hold the Space Bar, and the size of the current region is then locked and can be dragged around the screen. As long as you hold the Space Bar down, the region’s size is locked and it can be dragged about. • Shift: Press and hold the Shift key, and one side of the region will be locked, based on which way you then move the mouse. For instance, if you press and hold Shift, and then move your mouse down, you’ll only be able to resize the region vertically; the horizontal size will be fixed. Move the mouse left or right, and you can resize the region horizontally while holding the vertical size fixed. • Option: Press and hold Option while dragging your region, and you’ll change the way the region grows as you drag. By default, your region is anchored at the upper left corner; when you press Option, the anchor point is moved to the center of the current region, and it expands in all directions from that point. For more tips check the links!

Year 1 Virtual Patient Screen Capture file

Screen capture used for MedB & VP conference 2010

Panopto Screen Recordings

Links to my public recordings from Lectures and Training Sessions.

Using screen splitting in MS Word 2010

When working on a long Word document it can be very useful to be able to look at two parts of the file at the same time, use the Screen Split tool to do just this. For best viewing Download the video.

Using the Screen Split tool in MS Word 2011

When working on a long Word document it can be very useful to be able to look at two parts of the file at the same time, use the Screen Split tool to do just this. For best viewing Download the video.

Textiles - Screen Printing Training

Training on techniques needed to use the textile screen printing facilities at WSA. Please note that watching these videos does not mean you are authorised to use these machines, this is for reference after a formal in person induction.

De Millos y algo más. Estudio sobre la barrabrava Blue Rain en Bogotá

El proyecto está orientado al estudio de las agrupaciones denominadas barras bravas. A través de la etnografía, se explora la cotidianidad de las personas que integran estos grupos. Por tanto, a partir del enfoque en las prácticas individuales y grupales, así como las trayectorias y posiciones de los integrantes de estos grupos en los diferentes espacios sociales, se establece un debate ante las miradas particulares y académicas que condenan o rehabilitan moralmente a las barras bravas.

Feedback Toolbox (full screen)

This toolbox contains information for students about how they can use feedback at the University of Southampton to improve their marks and enjoy their courses more. The toolbox also contains practical information about academic appeals, as well as a user's guide to delivering effective peer feedback.

Impacto funcional con el uso de clavo telescopico tipo Fassier Duval en pacientes con osteogénesis imperfecta

Introducción: la osteogénesis es una patología de origen genético caracterizada por fragilidad ósea, en su curso natural los pacientes que la padecen se enfrentan a múltiples fracturas y múltiples intervenciones quirúrgicas, este tipo de pacientes por ser de alto riesgo necesitan técnicas quirúrgicas que aumenten el tiempo entre cada intervención y que demuestren un mayor impacto en el estado funcional. Objetivo: Determinar el impacto en el estado funcional de los pacientes con osteogénesis imperfecta llevados a tratamiento quirúrgico con clavos telescopados tipo Fassier Duval. Diseño: Estudio descriptivo prospectivo en el que se incluyeron 8 pacientes con diagnóstico de osteogénesis imperfecta, llevados a tratamiento quirúrgico con clavos telescopados tipo Fassier Duval desde el 2009 al 2013 a los cuales se les realizó seguimiento menor de 1 año del post operatorio. Resultados: La respuesta encontrada fue satisfactoria en la mayoría de los pacientes analizados 6 de 8, con cercanía a un estado funcional normal; un riesgo de caída bajo, incorporación y deambulación adecuada y una valoración funcional motora gruesa con valores cercanos al 100% identificando un buen nivel de independencia funcional. Se pudo demostrar que existieron cambios en los valores de la escala y que estos fueron estadísticamente significativos con p=0,028 indicando que el aumento dichos valores en el posoperatorio están relacionados con el procedimiento quirúrgico al utilizado en este grupo de pacientes. Conclusión: El tratamiento quirúrgico con el clavo telescopado de Fassier Duval en nuestra experiencia demostró tener una mejoría en el estado funcional de los pacientes del presente estudio, por lo tanto se sugiere la posibilidad de implementar su uso según este indicado con el fin de obtener un mejor resultado quirúrgico y funcional. Palabras clave: Osteogénesis Imperfecta, Clavo de Fassier Duval, Valoración Funcional Motora

Blue leaf: Una alternativa diferente de alimentación saludable

Blue Leaf es un proyecto de emprendimiento que consiste en la elaboración y venta directa de bebidas naturales a base de frutas a través de un food truck en la ciudad de Bogotá. Tras revisar algunas tendencias actuales como la cultura Fitness y el Juicing, y tras identificar un problema sobre los hábitos de alimentación desordenados que llevan muchas personas, nace Blue Leaf como una alternativa de alimentación saludable, natural, práctica y diferente. El negocio contará inicialmente con un portafolio de 12 bebidas divididas en tres categorías. Primero, las bebidas alimenticias cuentan con altos contenidos nutricionales y sirven como fuente de alimento práctico y saludable; segundo, las bebidas funcionales, están diseñadas para ofrecer beneficios específicos de salud como desintoxicar, ayudar a bajar de peso o fortalecer las defensas; por último, las bebidas fuente de energía, cuentan con altos niveles de vitaminas y minerales que le permiten a los consumidores recargar energías rápidamente y continuar con sus actividades diarias. Adicionalmente, Blue Leaf ofrecerá la oportunidad a los consumidores de hacer su propia bebida, dándoles la posibilidad de elegir de entre más de 50 ingredientes entre bases, frutas, verduras, hierbas, semillas, adiciones y endulzantes. El proyecto es liderado por Paola Higuera Rodríguez y David Santiago Soto, ambos estudiantes de la Escuela de Administración de la Universidad del Rosario