Financial constraints and house prices: an international perspective

In this paper, we show substantial empirical evidence that house prices are more sensitive to shocks to percapita income, in countries where housing finance is more developed. This result is consistent with the theoretical framework developed in the paper, where we study the impact ofprogressive relaxation of financiai constraints on housing demand and equilibrium house prices. Our results are consistent with recent literature on financiai constraints and business investment, which argues that the investment of less constrained firms can be more sensitive to changes in cash flow. More broadly, our results challenge the traditional view that financiai development leads to smaller fluctuations in key economic variables. The policy implications are c1ear and important. Even iffinancial development is desirable for other reasons, the potential associated increase in volatility should be an explicit policy concern.

Optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil

This paper presents optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil derived from a backward looking expectation model consisting of a Keynesian IS function and an Augmented Phillips Curve (ISAS). The IS function displays'a high sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real interest rate and the Phillips Curve is accelerationist. The optimal monetary rules show low interest rate volatility with reaction coefficients lower than the ones suggested by Taylor (1993a,b). Reaction functions estimated through ADL and SUR models suggest that monetary policy has not been optimal and has aimed to product rather than inflation stabilization.

Predictable dividends and returns

The conventional wisdom is that the aggregate stock price is predictable by the lagged pricedividend ratio, and that aggregate dividends follow approximately a random-walk. Contrary to this belief, this paper finds that variation in the aggregate dividends and price-dividend ratio is related to changes in expected dividend growth. The inclusion of labor income in a cointegrated vector autoregression with prices and dividends allows the identification of predictable variation in dividends. Most of the variation in the price-dividend ratio is due to changes in expected returns, but this paper shows that part of variation is related to transitory dividend growth shocks. Moreover, most of the variation in dividend growth can be attributed to these temporary changes in dividends. I also show that the price-dividend ratio (or dividend yield) can be constructed as the sum of two distinct, but correlated, variables that separately predict dividend growth and returns. One of these components, which could be called the expected return state variable, predicts returns better than the price-dividend ratio does.

Supply chain turbulence: the impact of a mid-range event in multi-tier, multi-dimension supply chains

Nota: A autora agradece à Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) pela concessão de bolsa de estudos para o desenvolvimento deste projeto de pesquisa.

Coordination in brazilian pharmaceutical supply chains

Supply chain coordination (SCC) can be a challenge for many organizations as different firms in the same chain has different expectations and interdependencies (Arshinder & Deshmukh, 2008). Lack of SCC can result in the bullwhip effect and poor performance for a firm and its partners. By investigating the phenomenon in the Brazilian pharmaceutical supply chain using a qualitative research, this paper aims to understand the main issues that avoid a better integrated chain. Results of 21 interviews suggested that the lack of coordination in this environment was influenced by the network design and the history of the sector in Brazil, as well as scarce resources

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxin in the Billings Reservoir (São Paulo, SP, Brazil)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Economic viability of the piaucu Leporinus macrocephalus (Garavello & Britski, 1988) production

Brazilian fish farms presented an accelerated development during the early 90's, mainly because of the increase in fee-fishing operations. To meet the demand of this market, fish production and supply became excessive and, as a consequence, the number of fee-fishing operations, farmers and the final selling price, decreased. This study analyzes the technical aspects, production cost, profitability and economic viability of the production of piaucu (L. macrocephalus) in ponds, based on information from a rural property. Feeding and fingerling costs amount to approximately 47.1 % of the total production cost, representing together with the final selling price the most important factor affecting profitability. The payback period was 8.3 years, the liquid present value US$ 291.07, the internal return margin 9%, and the income-outcome ratio was 1.01, which represents an unattractive investment as a projection based on current conditions. The improvement in productive efficiency enhances the economic valuation index, and that the relative magnitude of cost and income are the most important points for the economic viability of the studied farm.

Caracterização e avaliação do macro sistema urbano de distribuição de água de Natal RN

The aim of this study is to characterize and evaluate the Macro System of Regional Water Distribution Natal North (RNN) and Southern Regional Natal (RNS), covering 35% and 65% respectively of the Natal-RN City. The terms of the quality and quantity of water (surface and groundwater) were also evaluated in order to adjust the parameters that contribute to proper distribution and control in water reserves. The methodology of the work took place from collecting volumetric data of production capacity and distribution of the two treatment plants for Regional as well as the flow rates of wells. Yet the quantitative capacity of reservation, distribution and consumption of the main reservoirs, population numbers and consumption of members neighborhoods were collected. Data were tabulated and used in computational simulator EPANET to diagnose possible through the water balance, the offers and demands on the water supply system in the neighborhoods of the capital, linking them to specific distribution points. We also evaluated the wells in the levels of nitrate in water consumed. As a result it was found that some neighborhoods in the South Regional Natal, was ranked as critical supply situation: City of Hope, Lagoa Nova and Nova Descoberta, where demand exceeds supply. While in most Northern Regional Natal present deficiency in the supply system as: Lagoa Azul, the Parque dos Coqueiros, igapó, Amarante and Salinas. The rates of nitrate in the city were significant, but manageable with corrective and preventive measures. The averages were 12 mg /l-N in Candelária, 10 mg/l-N in Lagoa Nova, 9 mg/l-N in Satelite, 20 mg/l-N in Gramore and 15 mg/l-N in N. Sra. Apresentação. Therefore proper distribution of water abstracted and implementation of quality control ensures the supply required by the system, associated with preservation of Water Resources of the Metropolitan Region of Natal

Evaluation of the Cartographic Communication Performance of a Route Guidance and Navigation System

This study evaluates the influence of different cartographic representations of in-car navigation systems on visual demand, subjective preference, and navigational error. It takes into account the type and complexity of the representation, maneuvering complexity, road layout, and driver gender. A group of 28 drivers (14 male and 14 female) participated in this experiment which was performed in a low-cost driving simulator. The tests were performed on a limited number of instances for each type of representation, and their purpose was to carry out a preliminary assessment and provide future avenues for further studies. Data collected for the visual demand study were analyzed using non-parametric statistical analyses. Results confirmed previous research that showed that different levels of design complexity significantly influence visual demand. Non-grid-like road networks, for example, influence significantly visual demand and navigational error. An analysis of simple maneuvers on a grid-like road network showed that static and blinking arrows did not present significant differences. From the set of representations analyzed to assess visual demand, both arrows were equally efficient. From a gender perspective, women seem to took at the display more than men, but this factor was not significant. With respect to subjective preferences, drivers prefer representations with mimetic landmarks when they perform straight-ahead tasks. For maneuvering tasks, landmarks in a perspective model created higher visual demands.

Orbital evolution of the mu and nu dust ring particles of Uranus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Histological and histomorphometrical evaluation of furcation perforations filled with MTA, CPM and ZOE

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Embryology and seed development of Blastocaulon scirpeum and Paepalanthus scleranthus (Eriocaulaceae)

The embryology and seed structure of Blastocaulon scirpeum (Mart.) Giul. and Paepalanthus scleranthus Ruhland were studied in order to contribute to the embryology of Eriocaulaceae and supply data for future taxonomic studies. Both species present: anther with 4-layered wall; conspicuous endothecium with fibrous thickenings; secretory tapetum with uninucleate cells; successive microsporogenesis forming isobilateral microspore tetrads; bicellular pollen grains; orthotropous, bitegmic and tenuinucellate ovule; micropyle formed by the inner integument alone; megagametophyte of the Polygonum type, with a conspicuous antipodal cyst; nuclear and starchy endosperm; reduced, undifferentiated, and bell-shaped embryo; operculate and endotestal seed; seed coat derived from the two ovule integuments; and tanniniferous endotegmen. In addition, Blastocaulon scirpeum shows a bisporangiate anther and a 3-layered ovary wall, while P. scleranthus presents a tetrasporangiate anther that becomes bisporangiate at maturity, and a 2-layered ovary wall. This investigation shows that the bisporangiate condition does not suffice to separate Blastocaulon from Paepalanthus, since it is common to both. It also indicates, based on several embryological aspects, the proximity of Eriocaulaceae and Xyridaceae, which comply mainly with the features presented by the other commelinid families. These results may be used in future cladistic analysis of the family, and contribute to a better understanding of its phylogeny.

Cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of pulp capping materials in two cell lines

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Response of the pulp of dogs to capping with mineral trioxide aggregate or a calcium hydroxide cement

This study was conducted to observe the response of dogs' dental pulp to mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) and a calcium hydroxide cement when used as pulp capping materials. After the pulps of 30 teeth were exposed, they were capped with either MTA or a calcium hydroxide cement. Histological analysis was performed 2 months after treatment. Results showed a healing process with complete tubular dentin bridge formation and no inflammation in any of the pulps capped with MTA. on the other hand, only five specimens from the calcium hydroxide cement group formed a complete dentin bridge. In this experimental group, pulp inflammation was observed in all but three cases. In conclusion, MTA exhibited better results than the calcium hydroxide cement for the capping of the pulp in dogs.