Emerging Markets' Euro Nemesis. CEPS Commentary, 9 September 2013

In this new commentary, CEPS Director Daniel Gros argues that the weakening of European demand triggered by austerity is the real cause behind the recent deterioration of emerging markets’ current accounts. As a consequence, unless the US resumes its role as consumer of last resort, the latest bout of financial-market jitters will weaken the global economy again.

Russian sanctions against Moldova. Minor effects, major potential. OSW COMMENTARY No. 152, 2014-11-06

Russia has been Moldova’s main trade partner and Russian capital has accounted for a large part of its foreign investments, dominating in the energy and the banking sectors. Moreover, Russia has been a key job market for Moldovan expatriate workers. In the economic sphere, this is making Moldova unilaterally dependent on Russia. Moscow has been attempting to exploit this situation to put pressure on the authorities in Chișinău for quite some time. In recent months Russia has increasingly used instruments for exerting economic pressure on Moldova, as a means of responding to the current authorities’ pro-Western policy. A key element of this policy was Moldova’s signing on 27 June 2014 of the Association Agreement with the EU (which came into force on 1 September 2014). Over the last year, Russia has implemented a number of import restrictions on Moldovan goods. The aim of the Russian actions is to fuel social disappointment, and ultimately – to prevent the pro-European coalition currently in power from winning the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 November 2014. Another aim might be to convince the Moldovan authorities to suspend the implementation of the Association Agreement – a plan openly put forward by Vladimir Putin during the CIS summit in Minsk on 10 October 2014. So far, however, the Russian economic sanctions have failed to produce the expected results. Support for the pro-European parties has been high, and there is little chance that the pro-Russian groups might achieve a parliamentary majority. It is not inconceivable, then, that in the upcoming months Moscow might decide to resort to other, more potent instruments of economic pressure such as speculation on the financial market, carried out as part of its de facto control over the banking sector. Another possibility is further tightening of trade restrictions, issuing expatriate workers from Russia or using Moldova’s dependence on Russian energy.

The finance-welfare state nexus. ACES Cases No. 2013.1

At the height of the financial crisis, the Western welfare state prevented a repeat of the Great Depression. But there were also suggestions that social policy had contributed to the crisis, particularly by promoting households’ access to credit in pursuit of welfare goals. Others claim that it was the withdrawal of state welfare that led to the disaster. Against this background that motivated our interest, we propose a systematic way of assessing the relationship between financial market and public welfare provisions. We use structural vector auto-regression to establish the causal link and its direction. Two hypotheses about this relationship can be inferred from the literature. First, the notion that welfare states ‘decommodify’ livelihoods or that there is an equity-efficiency tradeoff would suggest that welfare states substitute to varying degrees for financial market offers of insurance and savings. By contrast, welfare states may support private interests selectively and/or help markets for households to function better; thus the nexus would be one of complementarity. Our empirical strategy is to spell out the causal mechanisms that can account for a substitutive or complementary relationship and then to see whether advanced econometric techniques find evidence for the existence of either of these mechanisms in six OECD countries. We find complementarity between public welfare (spending and tax subsidies) and life insurance markets for four out of our six countries, notably even for the United States. Substitution between welfare and finance is the more plausible interpretation for France and the Netherlands, which is surprising. Data availability constrains us from testing the implications for the welfare state contribution to the crisis directly but our findings suggest that the welfare state cannot generally be blamed for the financial crisis.

Banking Sector Soundness, Innovation, and Development: Emerging Europe and South Asia. ACES Working Papers, 2012

While most academic and practitioner researchers agree that a country’s commercial banking sector’s soundness is a very significant indicator of a country’s financial market health, there is considerably less agreement and substantial confusion surrounding what constitutes a healthy bank in the aftermath of 2007+ financial crisis. Global banks’ balance sheets, corporate governance, management compensation and bonuses, toxic assets, and risky behavior are all under scrutiny as academics and regulators alike are trying to quantify what are “healthy, safe and good practices” for these various elements of banking. The current need to quantify, measure, evaluate, and compare is driven by the desire to spot troubled banks, “bad and risky” behavior, and prevent real damage and contagion in the financial markets, investors, and tax payers as it did in the recent crisis. Moreover, future financial crisis has taken on a new urgency as vast amounts of capital flows (over $1 trillion) are being redirected to emerging markets. This study differs from existing methods in the literature as it entail designing, constructing, and validating a critical dimension of financial innovation in respect to the eight developing countries in the South Asia region as well as eight countries in emerging Europe at the country level for the period 2001 – 2008, with regional and systemic differentials taken into account. Preliminary findings reveal that higher stages of payment systems development have generated efficiency gains by reducing the settlement risk and improving financial intermediation; such efficiency gains are viewed as positive financial innovations and positively impact the banking soundness. Potential EU candidate countries: Albania; Montenegro; Serbia

Middle to Late Quaternary sedimentation and rock-magnetic of ODP Site 105-646

We examine rock-magnetic, carbonate, and planktonic foraminiferal fluxes to identify climatically controlled changes of terrigenous and pelagic sedimentation at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 646 (the Labrador Sea). Terrigenous sediments are brought to the site principally by bottom currents. We use a rock-magnetic parameter sensitive to changes in magnetic mineral grain size, the ratio of anhysteretic susceptibility to low-field magnetic susceptibility (XARM/X), to monitor changes in bottom-current intensity over time, with large values of XARM/X (finer-grained magnetic minerals) indicating weaker bottom currents. A second rock-magnetic parameter, magnetic mineral accumulation rate (KaT) was used to indicate variations in terrigenous flux. Planktonic foraminiferal and carbonate accumulation rates (Pfar and CaC03ar) are used as indicators of pelagic flux. Absolute age assignments are based on correlation between the planktonic foraminiferal oxygen-isotope variations for Site 646 and the SPECMAP master oxygen-isotope curve. Cross-correlation analyses of the parameters that we studied with respect to the SPECMAP curve suggest that from oxygen-isotope stages 21 to 11, sedimentation rate, KaT, X, CaCO3ar, and Pfar were at their maximums, whereas XARM/X was at its minimum during peak interglacials (i.e., 0 k.y. lag time with respect to minimum ice volume). However, all parameters we examined lag behind minimum ice volume from stages 11 to 1, indicating a change in timing of both pelagic and terrigenous fluxes at approximately 400 k.y. BP. The negative correlation coefficient between XARM/X and the SPECMAP curve further suggest that finer-grained magnetic minerals are deposited during glacial periods, which probably reflects weaker bottom currents. The shift observed in the lag times of parameters examined with respect to the SPECMAP record is attributed to a change in significance of orbital parameters. Spectral results exhibit strong power in eccentricity (about 100 k.y.) throughout the record. Kap X, CaCO3flr, and Pfar show significant power in obliquity (about 41 k.y.), whereas XARM/X shows significant power at 73 k.y. from stages 21 to 11. The 73-k.y. period in XARM/X is near the difference tone of obliquity and eccentricity: 1/43-1/102 = 1/69. Kar and XARM/X show power only in eccentricity from stages 11 to 1. X and Pfar show significant power in precession (about 18 and 22 k.y.) whereas CaC03ar has power at 34 k.y, which could be a combination of precession and obliquity. The shift in power of orbital parameters may by attributed to the effect of the about 413-k.y. signal of eccentricity.

High velocity jet noise source location and reduction.

"February 22, 1977."

Spreading and synchronization of intrinsic signals in visual cortex of macaque monkey evoked by a localized visual stimulus

Spatio-temporal maps of the occipital cortex of macaque monkeys were analyzed using optical imaging of intrinsic signals. The images obtained during localized visual stimulation (IS) were compared with the images obtained on presentation of a blank screen (IB). We first investigated spontaneous variations of the intrinsic signals by analyzing the 100 IBs for each of the three cortical areas. Slow periodical activation was observed in alternation over the cortical areas. Cross-correlation analysis indicated that synchronization of spontaneous activation only took place within each cortical area, but not between them. When a small, drifting grating (2degreesX2degrees) was presented on the fovea. a dark spot appeared in the optical image at the cortical representation of this retinal location. It spread bilaterally along the border between V1 and V2, continuing as a number of parallel dark bands covering a large area of the lateral surface of V1. Cross-correlation analysis showed that during visual stimulation the intrinsic signals over all of the three cortical areas were synchronized, with in-phase activation of V1 and V2 and anti-phase activation of V4 and V1/V2. The significance of these extensive synergistic and antagonistic interactions between different cortical areas is discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Motor unit synchronization between medial and lateral vasti muscles

Objective: Accurate neuromuscular control of the patellofemoral joint is important in knee joint mechanics. Strategies to coordinate the vasti muscles, such as motor unit synchronization, may simplify control of patellar tracking. This study investigated motor unit synchronization between vastus medialis (VM) and lateralis (VL). Methods: Electromyographic (EMG) recordings of single motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) were made from VM and single- and multi-unit recordings were made from VL. Synchronization was quantified from peaks in the cross-correlogram generated from single MUAP pairs in VL and VM. The proportion of motor units in VM with synchronized firing in VL was also quantified from peaks in averages of multiunit VL EMG triggered from the VM MUAP. Results: A high degree of synchronization of motor unit firing between VM and VL was identified. Results were similar for cross-correlation (similar to 45% of cases) and triggered averages (similar to 41% of cases). Conclusions: The data suggest that synchronization between VM and VL is higher than expected. Agreement between traditional cross-correlation and triggered averaging methods suggest that this new technique may provide a more clinically viable method to quantify synchronization. Significance: High synchronization between VM and VL may provide a solution to simplify control of the mechanically unstable patellofemoral joint. (c) 2005 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalization

The problem of asset price bubbles, and more generally of instability in the financial system, has been a matter of concern since the 1980s but has only recently moved to the center of the macroeconomic policy debate. The main concern with bubbles arises when they burst, imposing losses on investors holding the bubble assets and potentially on the financial institutions that have extended credit to them. Asset price volatility is an inevitable consequence of financial market liberalization and, in extreme cases, generates asset price bubbles, the bursting of which can impose substantial economic and social costs. Policy responses within the existing liberalized financial system face daunting levels of uncertainty and risk. Given the pattern of increasing asset market volatility over recent decades and the policy issues highlighted in this paper, the future looks uncertain. Another significant cycle of asset price movements, especially in one of the major economies, could see a fundamental revision of thinking about the costs and benefits of liberalized financial systems.

Correlations between the satellite-derived seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass and aerosol optical depth in the Southern Ocean: Evidence for the influence of sea ice

The relationship between the production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the upper ocean and atmospheric sulfate aerosols has been confirmed through local shipboard measurements, and global modeling studies alike. In order to examine whether such a connection may be recoverable in the satellite record, we have analyzed the correlation between mean surface chlorophyll (CHL) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Southern Ocean, where the marine atmosphere is relatively remote from anthropogenic and continental influences. We carried out the analysis in 5-degree zonal bands between 50 degrees S and 70 degrees S, for the period ( 1997 - 2004), and in smaller meridional sectors in the Eastern Antarctic, Ross and Weddell seas. Seasonality is moderate to strong in both CHL and AOD signatures throughout the study regions. Coherence in the CHL and AOD time series is strong in the band between 50 degrees S and 60 degrees S, however this synchrony is absent in the sea-ice zone (SIZ) south of 60 degrees S. Marked interannual variability in CHL occurs south of 60 degrees S, presumably related to variability in sea-ice production during the previous winter. We find a clear latitudinal difference in the cross correlation between CHL and AOD, with the AOD peak preceding the CHL bloom by up to 6 weeks in the SIZ. This suggests that substantial trace gas emissions ( aerosol precursors) are being produced over the SIZ in spring ( October - December) as sea ice melts. This hypothesis is supported by field data that record extremely high levels of sulfur species in sea ice, surface seawater, and the overlying atmosphere during ice melt.

The relationship between knee strength and functional stability before and after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction

Functional stability of the knee is dependent on an intact ligamentous system and the timely and efficient contraction of supporting musculature. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between muscle strength and functional stability in 31 patients pre- and post-operatively, following a unilateral anterior cruciate ligament rupture. All subjects underwent reconstructive surgery using semitendonosis and gracilis tendons. Isokinetic strength assessment of quadriceps and hamstring muscles was performed at a rate of movement of 60% and 120degrees/s. Functional stability was determined by performance during five functional stability tests that included the shuttle run, side step, carioca, single and triple hop tests. Pearson's correlation coefficient statistics were applied to pre-operative and post-operative data respectively. These analyses demonstrated a significant positive correlation between quadriceps strength indices at both testing speeds and the two hop tests pre-operatively (p's < 0.007) and between quadriceps strength indices at both speeds and all five functional tests post-operatively (p's < 0.01). Assessed using Steiger's formula, there was a significant increase in the correlation between quadriceps strength indices and three functional tests post-operatively compared to pre-operatively (p < 0.05). No significant correlation between hamstring strength indices and functional scores existed pre- or post-operatively. This study has shown a significant correlation exists between quadriceps strength indices and functional stability both before and after surgery, this relationship does not reach significance between hamstring strength indices and functional stability. (C) 2002 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finanças comportamentais: Diferenças da aversão à perda entre alunos de administração de empresas e gestão financeira

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar aversão à perda dos estudantes do curso de administração de empresas e do curso de tecnologia em gestão financeira, usando a reprodução do trabalho desenvolvido por Kahneman e Tversky (1979). Para tanto, foi realizada uma pesquisa em campo com estudantes em uma faculdade particular, localizada da cidade de São Paulo, onde pode ser aplicado o questionário no modelo original proposto pelos pesquisadores Kahneman e Tversky (1979) e através dos resultados obtidos, foi recriada a teoria dos prospectos e constatou que um grupo de estudantes tem uma aversão à perda menor. Neste trabalho, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica sobre as principais mudanças na área financeira desde 1920 até atualidade, destacando a Teoria sobre Finanças Modernas, a Hipótese de Mercados Eficientes, Finanças Comportamentais, Heurísticas e Teoria do Prospecto. Os resultados apontam para a existência dos efeitos certeza, reflexo e isolamento. Foi possível confirmar a existência de um comportamento diferente para o grupo de estudantes de administração. Dentre as principais conclusões, os estudantes de administração, estão reagindo de forma diferente que os estudantes de gestão financeira. A formação dos respondentes mostrou-se um fator de diferenciação entre os dois grupos. Os alunos de administração tem uma base de estudos sobre finanças menor comparada com os estudantes de gestão financeira e uma base de estudos maior em outras áreas. Esse conhecimento mais abrangente na área financeira, não trouxe nenhum diferencial para os estudantes de gestão financeira, isso pode se dar por essa amostra ser basicamente de pessoas muito jovem que acabaram de sair do ensino médio e com pouca experiência e entendimento do mercado financeiro.

IMPACTOS DO PROCESSO DE PRIVATIZAÇÃO NA CULTURA ORGANIZACIONAL DE UMA GRANDE EMPRESA, SOB A ÓTICA DE SEUS COLABORADORES. UM ESTUDO DE CASO SOBRE O BANESPA BANCO DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO S.A.

As dinâmicas que envolvem as organizações são relacionadas à perpetuação e ao crescimento delas. Esse crescimento pode ser pautado num processo orgânico ou, o que é mais freqüente no mundo contemporâneo, através de fusões e aquisições. Um dos tipos de aquisição envolve um agente público: o estado. A esse processo dá-se o nome de privatização. Este trabalho utilizou como foco o processo de privatização vivido por uma grande empresa do setor financeiro nacional não pelo seu lado financeiro, nem mercadológico. O trabalho analisou o processo de privatização do Banco do Estado de São Paulo S.A. Banespa - sob o aspecto de sua cultura organizacional. Foram analisados os seguintes constructos da cultura organizacional: socialização de novos membros, políticas de recursos humanos, processo de comunicação, organização do processo de trabalho, histórico da empresa, valores e sentimentos. Primeiramente foi realizado um levantamento bibliográfico a fim de contextualizar os processos de fusões e aquisições, nos quais a privatização se enquadra. Foi realizado um levantamento relativo aos aspectos ligados à globalização, à cultura organizacional, à relação cultura e privatização e aos aspectos ligados à cultura brasileira. A análise foi realizada em dois momentos, para permitir a avaliação dos impactos provocados pelo processo de privatização na cultura da empresa: antes e depois da privatização. A particularidade deste trabalho está no fato de que as informações relativas ao processo foram obtidas junto a ex colaboradores do Banespa. Foram selecionados antigos funcionários que viveram ambos os momentos. As informações para análise saíram de entrevistas roteirizadas para a identificação dos elementos culturais a serem investigados. Entre os dois momentos foi descrito e analisado também o processo da privatização pela ótica dos antigos colaboradores. A pesquisa identificou a figura do banespiano como um importante elemento cultural, que também foi analisado nos dois momentos apresentados. Com a análise das entrevistas, o autor procurou identificar as conseqüências para a cultura organizacional do Banespa do processo de privatização ocorrido no final do ano 2000.(AU)

ANÁLISE DA ASSOCIAÇÃO DE OPERAÇÕES DE CAPITALIZAÇÃO DE PRIVATE EQUITY E VENTURE CAPITAL NO DESEMPENHO DE EMPRESAS COM AÇÕES NA BOVESPA

A vantagem competitiva e o desempenho organizacional são conceitos administrativos estreitamente ligados à competitividade das empresas e sua permanência no mercado a longo prazo. Para que alcancem tal objetivo, de acordo com os fundamentos da RBV, as capacidades organizacionais dessas empresas devem ser dinâmicas, o que significa estar à frente das mudanças ambientais, mantendo, criando e desenvolvendo novas capacidades. Um dos caminhos para que isso se realize é a aposta na sua capitalização, que pode ocorrer com a captação de recursos de terceiros ou recursos próprios, com maior ou menor grau de risco. A captação de recursos com capital de terceiros acontece, principalmente, via instituições financeiras e factorings. A captação por meio de capital próprio pode ocorrer por retenção de lucros ou pelo underwriting. A emissão feita via mercado primário configura a oferta pública inicial de ações ou Initial Public Offering (IPO). No Brasil, a escolha dos fundos de Private Equity e Venture Capital, segmentos do mercado financeiro que consistem fundamentalmente em aporte temporário de capital, vem crescendo consideravelmente nos últimos anos. Contudo, existem poucas pesquisas a respeito da utilização e do desempenho financeiro que esses fundos trazem para as empresas. O presente estudo procura averiguar se as empresas que estavam listadas na BOVESPA no período de 2002 a 2008 e que receberam recursos via Private Equity e Venture Capital com IPO desenvolveram desempenho financeiro superior às que receberam ou não outros tipos de financiamento no mesmo período. Foram selecionados dados secundários como: balanços patrimoniais, demonstração de resultados e valores das ações, utilizando-se da base de dados da Economática. Tomando o logaritmo do Q de Tobin como variável dependente e log_Ativo, Debt to Equity, ROA, crescimento de vendas, crescimento de investimentos, crescimento investimento Fama e CrescInv_endividamento como variáveis de controle, foram aplicados testes estatísticos, comparando a média dos índices, seguidos de análise por setor econômico, subsetor e segmento. Os resultados encontrados apontam que as empresas que receberam recursos via Private Equity e Venture Capital com IPO, tornaram-se diferentes das demais empresas que estavam listadas na BOVESPA naquele período. O presente trabalho busca, dessa forma, contribuir para o enriquecimento de conhecimento acadêmico acerca do tema.(AU)

AS RELAÇÕES ENTRE BEM-ESTAR NO TRABALHO E PARTICIPAÇÃO EM PROGRAMAS ORGANIZACIONAIS DE PROMOÇÃO DA SAÚDE

No campo científico, a busca por uma maior compreensão acerca de bem-estar no âmbito do trabalho é a tônica do momento, reunindo estudiosos das mais diferentes áreas que demonstram interesse pelo tema. No contexto empresarial, o papel dos programas de promoção da saúde e qualidade de vida torna-se marcante quando se deseja o crescimento da produtividade e do bem-estar dos trabalhadores, considerando a obtenção de resultados crescentes, pela empresa, como fundamentais para que as melhorias nas condições, organização e relações de trabalho ocorram permanentemente. Ou seja, as empresas entendem que com o investimento nesses programas a produtividade deve aumentar, gerando recursos, para que esta se sinta estimulada a continuar investindo no bem-estar dos empregados. Este estudo teve como objetivo promover uma análise sobre as relações entre bem-estar no trabalho, representado por satisfação com o trabalho, envolvimento com o trabalho e comprometimento organizacional afetivo; e freqüência a programas organizacionais de promoção da saúde. A amostra foi constituída por 117 trabalhadores de uma indústria multinacional química e farmacêutica, situada na Grande São Paulo, sendo 53 do sexo masculino e 64 do sexo feminino, com idade média de 30,28 anos, dos quais 63 eram solteiros, 46 casados e oito registram outro estado civil. Para desenvolvimento deste estudo, utilizou-se como instrumento um questionário composto por quatro escalas que mediram satisfação no trabalho, envolvimento com o trabalho, comprometimento organizacional afetivo e freqüência de participação em programas de promoção da saúde, realizados na empresa. Todos os dados recolhidos por meio do instrumento eram numéricos, o que permitiu sua análise eletrônica pelo SPSS, versão 13.0 para Windows. Nessa categoria de dados incluem-se os de descrição da amostra, os referentes a bem-estar no trabalho e freqüência aos programas de promoção da saúde. Foi criado um banco de dados para realização das análises descritivas (freqüências, percentuais, médias e desvios-padrão) e de correlação bivariada (r de Pearson). Os dados que permitiram descrever os programas de promoção da saúde promovidos pela empresa foram obtidos por meio de entrevista com a gerente de responsabilidade social, análise do relatório da empresa e de folhetos elaborados para divulgação e registro desses programas. Um total de cinco categorias de programas foi identificado: benefícios, atividades físicas, saúde, atividades culturais/lazer e ações comunitárias. A maior freqüência aos programas ocorreu na categoria benefícios, pela presença constante no restaurante da empresa. Os resultados deste estudo revelaram que grande parcela do bem-estar no trabalho especialmente no que tange o envolvimento com o trabalho, comprometimento afetivo com a organização, bem como satisfações com os colegas, com a chefia e com o próprio trabalho praticamente independe dos programas de promoção da saúde promovidos pela empresa. Por outro lado, participação em programas de promoção da saúde que incluem as categorias de benefícios, saúde e ações comunitárias, relacionou-se a satisfações com promoções e com salário