Computationally Efficient Methods for MDL-Optimal Density Estimation and Data Clustering

The Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle is a general, well-founded theoretical formalization of statistical modeling. The most important notion of MDL is the stochastic complexity, which can be interpreted as the shortest description length of a given sample of data relative to a model class. The exact definition of the stochastic complexity has gone through several evolutionary steps. The latest instantation is based on the so-called Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) distribution which has been shown to possess several important theoretical properties. However, the applications of this modern version of the MDL have been quite rare because of computational complexity problems, i.e., for discrete data, the definition of NML involves an exponential sum, and in the case of continuous data, a multi-dimensional integral usually infeasible to evaluate or even approximate accurately. In this doctoral dissertation, we present mathematical techniques for computing NML efficiently for some model families involving discrete data. We also show how these techniques can be used to apply MDL in two practical applications: histogram density estimation and clustering of multi-dimensional data.

Analysis of Heterogeneous IP Traffic in Wireless Environment

Wireless access is expected to play a crucial role in the future of the Internet. The demands of the wireless environment are not always compatible with the assumptions that were made on the era of the wired links. At the same time, new services that take advantage of the advances in many areas of technology are invented. These services include delivery of mass media like television and radio, Internet phone calls, and video conferencing. The network must be able to deliver these services with acceptable performance and quality to the end user. This thesis presents an experimental study to measure the performance of bulk data TCP transfers, streaming audio flows, and HTTP transfers which compete the limited bandwidth of the GPRS/UMTS-like wireless link. The wireless link characteristics are modeled with a wireless network emulator. We analyze how different competing workload types behave with regular TPC and how the active queue management, the Differentiated services (DiffServ), and a combination of TCP enhancements affect the performance and the quality of service. We test on four link types including an error-free link and the links with different Automatic Repeat reQuest (ARQ) persistency. The analysis consists of comparing the resulting performance in different configurations based on defined metrics. We observed that DiffServ and Random Early Detection (RED) with Explicit Congestion Notification (ECN) are useful, and in some conditions necessary, for quality of service and fairness because a long queuing delay and congestion related packet losses cause problems without DiffServ and RED. However, we observed situations, where there is still room for significant improvements if the link-level is aware of the quality of service. Only very error-prone link diminishes the benefits to nil. The combination of TCP enhancements improves performance. These include initial window of four, Control Block Interdependence (CBI) and Forward RTO recovery (F-RTO). The initial window of four helps a later starting TCP flow to start faster but generates congestion under some conditions. CBI prevents slow-start overshoot and balances slow start in the presence of error drops, and F-RTO reduces unnecessary retransmissions successfully.

Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data

It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).

Estimation of higher natural frequencies of polar orthotropic annular plates

A method based on an assumption that the radial bending moment is zero at a nodal circle is shown to yield accurate estimates of natural frequencies corresponding to higher modes of transversely vibrating polar orthotropic annular plates for various combinations of clamped, simply supported and free edge conditions. This method is found to be convenient for the determination of locations of nodal circles as well. Numerical investigations revealed that for small holes, nodal circles tend to move towards the outer edge with increasing number of nodal diameters. For large holes, it has been shown that the plate behaves like a long rectangular strip.

On the orthogonality of suboptimum estimate in the combined estimation and control problem

By deriving the equations for an error analysis of modeling inaccuracies for the combined estimation and control problem, it is shown that the optimum estimation error is orthogonal to the actual suboptimum estimate.

Estimation of Execution Times of Process Control Algorithms on Microcomputers

An important question which has to be answered in evaluting the suitability of a microcomputer for a control application is the time it would take to execute the specified control algorithm. In this paper, we present a method of obtaining closed-form formulas to estimate this time. These formulas are applicable to control algorithms in which arithmetic operations and matrix manipulations dominate. The method does not require writing detailed programs for implementing the control algorithm. Using this method, the execution times of a variety of control algorithms on a range of 16-bit mini- and recently announced microcomputers are calculated. The formulas have been verified independently by an analysis program, which computes the execution time bounds of control algorithms coded in Pascal when they are run on a specified micro- or minicomputer.

On the orthogonality of suboptimum estimate in the combined estimation and control problem

By deriving the equations for an error analysis of modeling inaccuracies for the combined estimation and control problem, it is shown that the optimum estimation error is orthogonal to the actual suboptimum estimate.

Nonlinear Control Design for an Air-breathing Engine with State Estimation

A nonlinear control design approach is presented in this paper for a challenging application problem of ensuring robust performance of an air-breathing engine operating at supersonic speed. The primary objective of control design is to ensure that the engine produces the required thrust that tracks the commanded thrust as closely as possible by appropriate regulation of the fuel flow rate. However, since the engine operates in the supersonic range, an important secondary objective is to ensure an optimal location of the shock in the intake for maximum pressure recovery with a sufficient margin. This is manipulated by varying the throat area of the nozzle. The nonlinear dynamic inversion technique has been successfully used to achieve both of the above objectives. In this problem, since the process is faster than the actuators, independent control designs have also been carried out for the actuators as well to assure the satisfactory performance of the system. Moreover, an extended Kalman Filter based state estimation design has been carried out both to filter out the process and sensor noises as well as to make the control design operate based on output feedback. Promising simulation results indicate that the proposed control design approach is quite successful in obtaining robust performance of the air-breathing system.

Taxonomy of factors which influence heavy metal build-up on urban road surfaces

Heavy metals build-up on urban road surfaces is a complex process and influenced by a diverse range of factors. Although numerous research studies have been conducted in the area of heavy metals build-up, limited research has been undertaken to rank these factors in terms of their influence on the build-up process. This results in limitations in the identification of the most critical factor/s for accurately estimating heavy metal loads and for designing effective stormwater treatment measures. The research study undertook an in-depth analysis of the factors which influence heavy metals build-up based on data generated from a number of different geographical locations around the world. Traffic volume was found to be the highest ranked factor in terms of influencing heavy metals build-up while land use was ranked the second. Proximity to arterial roads, antecedent dry days and road surface roughness has a relatively lower ranking. Furthermore, the study outcomes advances the conceptual understanding of heavy metals build-up based on the finding that with increasing traffic volume, total heavy metal build-up load increases while the variability decreases. The outcomes from this research study are expected to contribute to more accurate estimation of heavy metals build-up loads leading to more effective stormwater treatment design.

New colorimetric method for the estimation of resorcinol

A new, rapid, simple, and sensitive colorimetric method for the estimation of resorcinol in microgram amounts is described.

Estimation of higher natural frequencies of polar orthotropic annular plates

A method based on an assumption that the radial bending moment is zero at a nodal circle is shown to yield accurate estimates of natural frequencies corresponding to higher modes of transversely vibrating polar orthotropic annular plates for various combinations of clamped, simply supported and free edge conditions. This method is found to be convenient for the determination of locations of nodal circles as well. Numerical investigations revealed that for small holes, nodal circles tend to move towards the outer edge with increasing number of nodal diameters. For large holes, it has been shown that the plate behaves like a long rectangular strip.

Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the global burden of disease 2013

Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and the evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce new global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990-2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were then applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990 – 2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world’s population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries, in contrast to increases estimated in South Asia, throughout much of Southeast Asia, and in China. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased in most countries from 1990 - 2013, with modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

Enhancing 'Mobility' through Integrated Transportation and Traffic Management

During the course of preparation of a master plan for the transportation networks in Bangalore city, mapping the various initiatives and interventions planned towards addressing mobility, existing situation and implications of some of the proposed interventions was analysed. The inferences are based on existing transportation network; synthesis of various transportation related studies and proposed infrastructure initiatives (road works) in Bangalore. Broadly, they can be summarized as following five aspects: I. Need for ~Sreclassifying~T existing road networks (arterial and sub-arterial) with effective geospatial database in the back-end. II. The proposed Core Ring Road at surface grade may not be feasible. III. Current interventions encouraging more independent motorable transport by way of road widening, construction of underpasses, flyovers and grade-separators would not ease traffic congestion when addressed in isolation. IV. Factors affecting time and cost-overruns in infrastructure projects and ways to tackle are discussed. V. Initiatives required for addressing effective planning for operations recommended.

A robust initialization scheme for faster convergence of the dichotomous search algorithm for single frequency estimation

The estimation of the frequency of a sinusoidal signal is a well researched problem. In this work we propose an initialization scheme to the popular dichotomous search of the periodogram peak algorithm(DSPA) that is used to estimate the frequency of a sinusoid in white gaussian noise. Our initialization is computationally low cost and gives the same performance as the DSPA, while reducing the number of iterations needed for the fine search stage. We show that our algorithm remains stable as we reduce the number of iterations in the fine search stage. We also compare the performance of our modification to a previous modification of the DSPA and show that we enhance the performance of the algorithm with our initialization technique.