Prospective registry of symptomatic severe aortic stenosis in octogenarians: a need for intervention.

OBJECTIVE To study the factors associated with choice of therapy and prognosis in octogenarians with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). STUDY DESIGN Prospective, observational, multicenter registry. Centralized follow-up included survival status and, if possible, mode of death and Katz index. SETTING Transnational registry in Spain. SUBJECTS We included 928 patients aged ≥80 years with severe symptomatic AS. INTERVENTIONS Aortic-valve replacement (AVR), transcatheter aortic-valve implantation (TAVI) or conservative therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause death. RESULTS Mean age was 84.2 ± 3.5 years, and only 49.0% were independent (Katz index A). The most frequent planned management was conservative therapy in 423 (46%) patients, followed by TAVI in 261 (28%) and AVR in 244 (26%). The main reason against recommending AVR in 684 patients was high surgical risk [322 (47.1%)], other medical motives [193 (28.2%)], patient refusal [134 (19.6%)] and family refusal in the case of incompetent patients [35 (5.1%)]. The mean time from treatment decision to AVR was 4.8 ± 4.6 months and to TAVI 2.1 ± 3.2 months, P < 0.001. During follow-up (11.2-38.9 months), 357 patients (38.5%) died. Survival rates at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 81.8%, 72.6%, 64.1% and 57.3%, respectively. Planned intervention, adjusted for multiple propensity score, was associated with lower mortality when compared with planned conservative treatment: TAVI Hazard ratio (HR) 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49-0.93; P = 0.016) and AVR HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.8; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION Octogenarians with symptomatic severe AS are frequently managed conservatively. Planned conservative management is associated with a poor prognosis.

Desenvolupament d'un agent intel·ligent dins el marc de la competició TAC SCM

Aquest projecte està emmarcat dins el grup eXiT d’Intel•lig`encia Artificial del Departament d’Electrònica i Automàtica (EIA) de la Universitat de Girona. Pertany a l’àmbit de la Intel•ligència Artificial i, concretament, en l’apartat d’agents intel•ligents. En el nostre cas, tractarem el desenvolupament d’un agent intel•ligent en un entorn determinat, el de la gestió d’una cadena de producció. Amb l’objectiu de proporcionar un marc experimental on provar diferents tecnologies de suport a la gestió de la cadena de producció, la comunitat d’investigadors va proposar una competició internacional: la Trading Agent Competiton (TAC). En aquesta competició existeixen diferents modalitats. En particular, la Swedish Institution of Computer Science (SICS), juntament amb la Carnegie Mellon University de Pittsburg, Minnesotta, van proposar al 2003 un escenari de muntatge de PC’s basat en el proveïment de recursos, l’embalatge de PC’s i les ventes a clients. Aquesta modalitat és coneguda com aTAC-SCM (Supply Chain Management)

Bridging the Gap: establishing the necessary infrastructure and knowledge for teaching and research in neuroscience in Africa.

Advances in neuroscience research over the last few decades have increased our understanding of how individual neurons acquire their specific properties and assemble into complex circuits, and how these circuits are affected in disease. One of the important motives driving neuroscience research is the development of new scientific techniques and interdisciplinary cooperation. Compared to developed countries, many countries on the African continent are confronted with poor facilities, lack of funding or career development programs for neuroscientists, all of which deter young scientists from taking up neuroscience as a career choice. This article highlights some steps that are being taken to promote neuroscience education and research in Africa.

Business Exits entail greater future levels of entrepreneurship? An empirical analysis at country level

Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data for 41 countries this study investigates the impact of business exit on entrepreneurial activity at the country level. The paper distinguishes between two types of entrepreneurial activity according with the motive to start a new business: entrepreneurs driven by opportunity and necessity motives. The findings indicate that exits have a positive impact on future levels of entrepreneurial activity in a country. For each exit in a given year, a larger proportion of entrepreneurial activity the following year. Moreover, this e ffect turns out to be higher for opportunity entrepreneurs. The findings indicate that both types of entrepreneurial activity rates are influenced by the same factors and in the same direction. However, for some factors we find a di fferential impact on the entrepreneurship. The results show some important implications given that business exit may be overcome when there is a necessity motivation. This has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. JEL codes: L26. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, business exit, social values

Anàlisi del sistema productiu i comercial del vi de la Tarraconensis a partir de la combinació de metodologies

Des del segon quart del s. I aC i, especialment, durant el regnat d’August, es va desenvolupar a l’antiga província Tarraconensis un sistema productiu centrat en l’explotació agrària vitivinícola amb una finalitat clarament comercial. La majoria d’assentament vitivinícoles es troben emplaçats al litoral català, associats de vegades a figlinae que fabricaven les àmfores per al transport i comerç de l’excedent vinícola. No obstant, a l’àrea del Vallès Occidental i del Baix Llobregat es troben una sèrie de vil•les vinculades a la producció de vi i a la fabricació d’àmfores que han proporcionat restes molt significatives sobre la contribució d’aquesta zona a l’expansió econòmica de la província. La caracterització arqueològica i arqueomètrica d’un gran nombre d’àmfores procedents de diversos tallers ceràmics situats al Vallès Occidental i al Baix Llobregat, utilitzant diverses tècniques d’anàlisi química, mineralògica i petrogràfica, ha portat a establir quins tipus d’àmfores es van fabricar a cada taller i de quina manera. S’han identificat alguns dels processos tecnològics de la cadena operativa: la selecció i processat de les matèries primeres per conformar la pasta procedents, generalment, de l’àrea on es troba cada centre de producció, el modelatge, l’assecat i la cocció de les peces. En alguns dels casos analitzats, s’ha identificat quins tipus de contenidors van ser importants a l’establiment i la seva provinença. La integració d’aquests resultats en la base de dades analítica que disposa l’ERAAUB ha permès avaluar el grau d’estandardització dels processos tecnològics en aquesta àrea. La contrastació final amb les dades històriques i arqueològiques contribueix al coneixement arqueològic de les àmfores vinàries de la Tarraconensis i, a través d’elles, al coneixement de les societats que les van fabricar, comercialitzar i utilitzar.

Studying the micro-angels approach to micro-investment decisions

Purpose: The paper analyzes the micro-angels investment behaviour, looking both to the criteria used in the selection of their investment projects and to the characteristics of their guidance role during the investment period. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper focuses on a double bottom line movement of French micro-angels clubs that has been operating since 1983. Our primary source of data is an online survey carried out during March 2012, asking members of clubs all over France for different aspects of their procedures. Findings: Our findings suggest that micro-angels are interested in small, socially or environmentally friendly projects having the potential to contribute to the development of their neighbourhood. We find that women are even more interested than men in such projects. Educated micro-angels value entrepreneurial motivation and understanding of the project more than less-educated micro-angels. We also point out the factors that micro-angels consider important in accompanying enterprises. Here we find that gender makes little difference. However, retired micro-angels value financial diagnosis made conjointly with entrepreneurs, while both active micro-angels and educated micro-angels value more the use of their network to help micro-entrepreneurs. Practical/Social Implications: Given the potential benefits of micro-angels investing and guiding the development of micro-enterprises, a social micro-angel investment on a major scale in developing countries could help in tackling some of the problems faced by the development of microfinance, such as the over-indebtedness of micro-entrepreneurs. Practitioners and new initiatives would gain from understanding what adaptations need to be made. Originality/value: We expect to add to the venture capital theory to take into account non-economic motives.

Education, Equity and Distributive Beliefs: Evidences from the Chilean Case

During the year 2011, Chile has been scenario of several student's demonstrations claiming for more equity in the access to the higher education. The high support to the protests by the side of the general population (nearly 89% of approval in public opinion polls) seems to suggest the existence of a large consensus about the weaknesses of the Chilean educative model, a model that would challenge the traditional ideals of meritocracy and social mobility that are at the core of the educational systems in modern societies. In this context, a question that remains open is to what extent these claims are mostly based on consensual equality ideals, or whether they are influenced by individual socio-economic determinants vis-à-vis rational motives. Using data of the social inequality module International Social Survey Program (ISSP) of 2009, this research analyzes perceptions and beliefs about education and the distributive system as well as the influence of income and educational variables, through a structural equation modeling framework. Preliminary results indicate the presence of socioeconomic cleavages in relation to the fairness of the educational system, questioning the assumption about a normative consensus.

Being Drunk to Have Fun or to Forget Problems? Identifying Enhancement and Coping Drinkers Among Risky Drinking Adolescents

Prevention programs in adolescence are particularly effective if they target homogeneous risk groups of adolescents who share a combination of particular needs and problems. The present work aims to identify and classify risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) adolescents according to their motivation to engage in drinking. An easy-to-use coding procedure was developed. It was validated by means of cluster analyses and structural equation modeling based on two randomly selected subsamples of a nationally representative sample of 2,449 12- to 18-year-old RSOD students in Switzerland. Results revealed that the coding procedure classified RSOD adolescents as either enhancement drinkers or coping drinkers. The high concordance (Sample A: kappa - .88, Sample B: kappa - .90) with the results of the cluster analyses demonstrated the convergent validity of the coding classification. The fact that enhancement drinkers in both subsamples were found to go out more frequently in the evenings and to have more satisfactory social relationships, as well as a higher proportion of drinking peers and a lower likelihood to drink at home than coping drinkers demonstrates the concurrent validity of the classification. To conclude, the coding procedure appears to be a valid, reliable, and easy-to-use tool that can help better adapt prevention activities to adolescent risky drinking motives.

Capital cities of federations. On the way to analysing the normative base of their asymmetrical status

Federal Capitals often have special statutes. Compared with member states, they often enjoy a lower degree of self-government and a lesser share in the governing of the federation. Why do actors choose such devices, and how can they be justified in a liberal democracy? Surprisingly, the burgeoning literature on asymmetric federalism (to which our research group has contributed significantly) has overlooked this important feature of a de iure asymmetry, perhaps because political theory up to now has concentrated on cases of multicultural and plurinational federations. However, comparative literature is also rare. This paper is the first step to filling in this gap by comparing some federal capitals. The Federal District model (Washington) is compared to capitals organized as member-states (Berlin and Brussels), and capitals that are cities belonging to a single member state (Ottawa in Ontario). The different features of de iure asymmetry will thereby be highlighted. Some light will be shed on the possible motives, reasons and justifications for the choice of each respective status. The paper opens the door to further research on such status questions by analysing public and parliamentary debates, for example. It paves the way for more thorough research. Sicne the author has been awarded a grant by the Institut d’Estudis Autonòmics, this research will be carried out soon.

Medical and legal professionals' attitudes towards confidentiality and disclosure of clinical information in forensic settings: a survey using case vignettes.

OBJECTIVE: When potentially dangerous patients reveal criminal fantasies to their therapists, the latter must decide whether this information has to be transmitted to a third person in order to protect potential victims. We were interested in how medical and legal professionals handle such situations in the context of prison medicine and forensic evaluations. We aimed to explore the motives behind their actions and to compare these professional groups. METHOD: A mail survey was conducted among medical and legal professionals using five fictitious case vignettes. For each vignette, participants were asked to answer questions exploring what the professional should do in the situation and to explain their justification for the chosen response. RESULTS: A total of 147 questionnaires were analysed. Agreement between participants varied from one scenario to another. Overall, legal professionals tended to disclose information to a third party more easily than medical professionals, the latter tending to privilege confidentiality and patient autonomy over security. Perception of potential danger in a given situation was not consistently associated with actions. CONCLUSION: Professionals' opinions and attitudes regarding the confidentiality of potentially dangerous patients differ widely and appear to be subjectively determined. Shared discussions about clinical situations could enhance knowledge and competencies and reduce differences between professional groups.

Optimal Design of Permit Markets with an Ex Ante Pollution Target, August 2006

In this paper, we examine the design of permit trading programs when the objective is to minimize the cost of achieving an ex ante pollution target, that is, one that is defined in expectation rather than an ex post deterministic value. We consider two potential sources of uncertainty, the presence of either of which can make our model appropriate: incomplete information on abatement costs and uncertain delivery coefficients. In such a setting, we find three distinct features that depart from the well-established results on permit trading: (1) the regulator’s information on firms’ abatement costs can matter; (2) the optimal permit cap is not necessarily equal to the ex ante pollution target; and (3) the optimal trading ratio is not necessarily equal to the delivery coefficient even when it is known with certainty. Intuitively, since the regulator is only required to meet a pollution target on average, she can set the trading ratio and total permit cap such that there will be more pollution when abatement costs are high and less pollution when abatement costs are low. Information on firms’ abatement costs is important in order for the regulator to induce the optimal alignment between pollution level and abatement costs.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Altruism, Equity, and Reciprocity in a Gift-Exchange Experiment: An Encompassing Approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent models of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism- based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.

Intra-Industry Trade, Multilateral Trade Integration, and Invasive Species Risk, December 2006

We analyze the linkage between protectionism and invasive species (IS) hazard in the context of two-way trade and multilateral trade integration, two major features of real-world agricultural trade. Multilateral integration includes the joint reduction of tariffs and trade costs among trading partners. Multilateral trade integration is more likely to increase damages from IS than predicted by unilateral trade opening under the classic Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework because domestic production (the base susceptible to damages) is likely to increase with expanding export markets. A country integrating its trade with a partner characterized by relatively higher tariff and trade costs is also more likely to experience increased IS damages via expanded domestic production for the same reason. We illustrate our analytical results with a stylized model of the world wheat market.

Development and validating an educational booklet for childbirth companions

Objective The article describes the steps in producing and validating an educational booklet for childbirth companions. Method Methodological study conducted in 2011 consisting of the following steps: situational assessment; establishing brochure content; content selection and referencing; drafting the text; design of illustrations; layout; consultation of specialists; consultation of target audience; amendments; proofreading; evaluation using the Flesch Reading Ease Formula. The topics portrayed the sequence of events involving support from gestation to the postpartum period. Results The concordance rate among companions was greater than or equal to 81.8% for the topics organisation, writing style, presentation and motives. The overall Content Validity Index of the booklet was 0.94. The booklet was classified as easy reading or very easy reading according to the results of the Flesch Reading Ease Formula. Conclusion The presentation and content of the manual were validated for use with the target audience by the specialists and representatives of the target audience.