RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

Measuring the Diversity and the Integration of Film Production in Mercosur: A Social Network Analysis

Based on an original and comprehensive database of all feature fiction films produced in Mercosur between 2004 and 2012, the paper analyses whether the Mercosur film industry has evolved towards an integrated and culturally more diverse market. It provides a summary of policy opportunities in terms of integration and diversity, emphasizing the limiter role played by regional policies. It then shows that although the Mercosur film industry remains rather disintegrated, it tends to become more integrated and culturally more diverse. From a methodological point of view, the combination of Social Network Analysis and the Stirling Model opens up interesting research tracks to analyse creative industries in terms of their market integration and their cultural diversity.

Acceptance of relapse fears in breast cancer patients: effects of an act-based abridged intervention

Objective: Relapse fear is a common psychological scar in cancer survivors. The aim of this study is to assess the effects of an abridged version of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) in breast cancer patients.Method: An open trial was developed with 12 non-metastatic breast cancer patients assigned to 2 conditions, ACT and waiting list. Interventions were applied in just one session and focused on the acceptance of relapse fears through a ‘defusion’ exercise. Interference and intensity of fear measured through subjective scales were collected after each intervention and again 3 months later. Distress, hypochondria and ‘anxious preocupation’ were also evaluated through standardized questionnaires.Results: The analysis revealed that ‘defusion’ contributed to decrease the interference of the fear of recurrence, and these changes were maintained three months after intervention in most subjects. 87% of participants showed clinically significant decreases in interference at follow-up sessions whereas no patient in the waiting list showed such changes. Statistical analysis revealed that the changes in interference were significant when comparing pre, post and follow-up treatment, and also when comparing ACT and waiting list groups. Changes in intensity of fear, distress, anxious preoccupation and hypochondria were also observed.Conclusions: Exposure through ‘defusion’ techniques might be considered a useful option for treatment of persistent fears in cancer patients. This study provides evidence for therapies focusing on psychological acceptance in cancer patients through short, simple and feasible therapeutic methods.

Of Marx and Makers: an Historical Perspective on Generative Justice

In Marxist frameworks “distributive justice” depends on extracting value through a centralized state. Many new social movements—peer to peer economy, maker activism, community agriculture, queer ecology, etc.—take the opposite approach, keeping value in its unalienated form and allowing it to freely circulate from the bottom up. Unlike Marxism, there is no general theory for bottom-up, unalienated value circulation. This paper examines the concept of “generative justice” through an historical contrast between Marx’s writings and the indigenous cultures that he drew upon. Marx erroneously concluded that while indigenous cultures had unalienated forms of production, only centralized value extraction could allow the productivity needed for a high quality of life. To the contrary, indigenous cultures now provide a robust model for the “gift economy” that underpins open source technological production, agroecology, and restorative approaches to civil rights. Expanding Marx’s concept of unalienated labor value to include unalienated ecological (nonhuman) value, as well as the domain of freedom in speech, sexual orientation, spirituality and other forms of “expressive” value, we arrive at an historically informed perspective for generative justice. 

Developing an engineering approach for migrating from prescriptive to performance-based specification for concrete

The integral variability of raw materials, lack of awareness and appreciation of the technologies for achieving quality control and lack of appreciation of the micro and macro environmental conditions that the structures will be subjected, makes modern day concreting a challenge. This also makes Designers and Engineers adhere more closely to prescriptive standards developed for relatively less aggressive environments. The data from exposure sites and real structures prove, categorically, that the prescriptive specifications are inadequate for chloride environments. In light of this shortcoming, a more pragmatic approach would be to adopt performance-based specifications which are familiar to industry in the form of specification for mechanical strength. A recently completed RILEM technical committee made significant advances in making such an approach feasible.
Furthering a performance-based specification requires establishment of reliable laboratory and on-site test methods, as well as easy to perform service-life models. This article highlights both laboratory and on-site test methods for chloride diffusivity/electrical resistivity and the relationship between these tests for a range of concretes. Further, a performance-based approach using an on-site diffusivity test is outlined that can provide an easier to apply/adopt practice for Engineers and asset managers for specifying/testing concrete structures.

Paneo general sobre el proceso de retroalimentaci?n que se establece entre las demandas socioeducativas referidas al tema de la convivencia y el conflicto en la escuela, y las respuestas que ofrece el sistema pol?tico educativo a nivel nacional y local

El incremento de los conflictos escolares en las instituciones educativas de nuestro pa?s ha suscitado especial preocupaci?n en los entes gubernamentales, puesto que ?stos hechos implican directamente la integridad de los estudiantes y se relaciona fundamentalmente con la labor que realiza el Ministerio de Educaci?n en materia de convivencia escolar, de all? que tal preocupaci?n se haya traducido en acciones desde niveles locales a niveles nacionales, que tienen como objetivo la mitigaci?n de este fen?meno, la promoci?n de escenarios de conciliaci?n y la resoluci?n pac?fica de los conflictos. Por lo tanto, este trabajo se enfoca en la identificaci?n de aquellas relaciones que se establecen entre los distintos actores involucrados, como lo son los entes gubernamentales y la sociedad civil organizada, quienes buscan generar mecanismos e instancias que permitan reducir los ?ndices de violencia escolar en las instituciones educativas, ello se ha realizado a trav?s del estudio descriptivo y el an?lisis de las relaciones mencionadas, en donde encontramos que en primera medida ha existido un proceso de consolidaci?n de demandas frente a la protecci?n de los derechos de los ni?os, ni?as y adolescentes, la conformaci?n de organizaciones integradas por padres, profesionales, universidades, empresas privadas, entre otros, quienes promueven proyectos de prevenci?n y, finalmente la consolidaci?n de la Ley 1620 de 2013 o Ley de Convivencia Escolar a trav?s de la cual se crea el Sistema Nacional de Convivencia Escolar y se encarga de labores de prevenci?n, atenci?n y seguimiento de casos relacionados con conflictos escolares y todas las tipolog?as que este acoge. Se concluye que, aquellas iniciativas que han surgido de manera end?gena, mediante mecanismos pedag?gicos que acojan la comunidad escolar han logrado un alto nivel de adhesi?n; por otra parte, la existencia de la Ley 1620 constituye un logro en el reconocimiento de un fen?meno que atenta en contra... del ambiente escolar de las instituciones, el cual debe consolidarse a trav?s del trabajo mancomunado que se promueve gracias a la interinstitucionalidad.

Predicting the performance of passenger ships using computer simulation

When designing a new passenger ship or naval vessel or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Herald of Free Enterprise and the Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerned with the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models are now recognised by IMO through the publication of the Interim Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis of New and Existing Passenger Ships including Ro-Ro. This approach offers the promise to quickly and efficiently bring evacuation considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board" as well as reviewing and optimising the evacuation provision of the existing fleet. Other applications of this technology include the optimisation of operating procedures for civil and naval vessels such as determining the optimal location of a feature such as a casino, organising major passenger movement events such as boarding/disembarkation or restaurant/theatre changes, determining lean manning requirements, location and number of damage control parties, etc. This paper describes the development of the maritimeEXODUS evacuation model which is fully compliant with IMO requirements and briefly presents an example application to a large passenger ferry.

HOLDING DECISIONS FOR CORRELATED VEHICLE ARRIVALS AT INTERMODAL FREIGHT TRANSFER TERMINALS

A vehicle holding method is proposed for mitigating the effect of service disruptions on coordinated intermodal freight operations. Existing studies are extended mainly by (1) modeling correlations among vehicle arrivals and (2) considering decision risks with a mean-standard deviation optimization model. It is shown that the expected value of the total cost in the proposed formulation is not affected by the correlations, while the variance can be miscomputed when arrival correlations are neglected. Some implications of delay propagation are also identified when optimizing vehicle holding decisions in real-time. General criteria are provided for determining the boundary of the affected region and length of the numerical search, based on the frequency of information updates. Theoretical analyses are supported by three numerical examples.

Projeto de estabilidade de um edifício para uma sala elétrica em betão armado e estrutura metálica

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização Estruturas

Projeto de fundações e estruturas de um edifício destinado a uma igreja

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização em Estruturas

Macrodosis de fentanil en la inducción de la anestesia general y sus efectos sobre el recuerdo de la intubación traqueal. Hospital José Carrasco Arteaga. Cuenca 2000

Es un estudio clínico controlado se incluyeron 100 pacientes adultos, ASA I-II de ambos sexos, en dos grupos de 50 pacientes cada uno seleccionados aleatoriamente: grupo A recibió 10 mcg.Kg-1 de fentanil y grupo B) recibió 15 mcg.kg-1 de fentanil. Se aplicó un formulario durante los 12 min de la inducción y a las 6 horas de posanestésico para valorar el recuerdo del procedimiento y de la intubación endotraqueal. No hubieron diferencias entre los grupos en cuanto a edad, sexo, procedencia, instrucción y tipo de cirugía. El procedimiento de inducción fue recordado por menor porcentaje de pacientes de grupo B. La intubación endotraqueal registró el 88 por ciento de olvido en el grupo A. y el 96 por ciento en el B [P mayor 0.05]. El recuerdo de la intubación endotraqueal no fue traumático y hubo un 4 por ciento de euforia transitoria en el grupo B. Las variaciones hemodinámicas en cuanto a pulso, TA y SpO2 medidas en cuatro momentos: basal, 4 min, 8 min y 12 min no fueron estadísticamente signigicativas

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Medidas de concentração de radônio proveniente de argamassas de cimento portland, gesso e fosfogesso

Portland cement being very common construction material has in its composition the natural gypsum. To decrease the costs of manufacturing, the cement industry is substituting the gypsum in its composition by small quantities of phosphogypsum, which is the residue generated by the production of fertilizers and consists essentially of calcium dihydrate and some impurities, such as fluoride, metals in general, and radionuclides. Currently, tons of phosphogypsum are stored in the open air near the fertilizer industries, causing contamination of the environment. The 226 Ra present in these materials, when undergoes radioactive decay, produces the 222Rn gas. This radioactive gas, when inhaled together with its decay products deposited in the lungs, produces the exposure to radiation and can be a potential cause of lung cancer. Thus, the objective of this study was to measure the concentration levels of 222Rn from cylindrical samples of Portland cement, gypsum and phosphogypsum mortar from the state of Paraná, as well as characterizer the material and estimate the radon concentration in an environment of hypothetical dwelling with walls covered by such materials. Experimental setup of 222Rn activity measurements was based on AlphaGUARD detector (Saphymo GmbH). The qualitative and quantitative analysis was performed by gamma spectrometry and EDXRF with Au and Ag targets tubes (AMPTEK), and Mo target (ARTAX) and mechanical testing with x- ray equipment (Gilardoni) and the mechanical press (EMIC). Obtained average values of radon activity from studied materials in the air of containers were of 854 ± 23 Bq/m3, 60,0 ± 7,2 Bq/m3 e 52,9 ± 5,4 Bq/m3 for Portland cement, gypsum and phosphogypsum mortar, respectively. These results extrapolated into the volume of hypothetical dwelling of 36 m3 with the walls covered by such materials were of 3366 ± 91 Bq/m3, 237 ± 28 Bq/m3 e 208 ± 21 Bq/m3for Portland cement, gypsum and phosphogypsum mortar, respectively. Considering the limit of 300 Bq/m3 established by the ICRP, it could be concluded that the use of Portland cement plaster in dwellings is not secure and requires some specific mitigation procedure. Using the results of gamma spectrometry there were calculated the values of radium equivalent activity concentrations (Raeq) for Portland cement, gypsum and phosphogypsum mortar, which were obtained equal to 78,2 ± 0,9 Bq/kg; 58,2 ± 0,9 Bq/kg e 68,2 ± 0,9 Bq/kg, respectively. All values of radium equivalent activity concentrations for studied samples are below the maximum level of 370 Bq/kg. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of EDXRF spectra obtained with studied mortar samples allowed to evaluate quantitate and the elements that constitute the material such as Ca, S, Fe, and others.

Two near-optimal layouts for trusslike bridge structures bearing uniform weight between supports

Although the primary objective on designing a structure is to support the external loads, the achievement of an optimal layout that reduces all costs associated with the structure is an aspect of increasing interest. The problem of finding the optimal layout for bridgelike structures subjected to a uniform load is considered. The problem is formulated following a theory on economy of frame structures, using the stress volume as the objective function and including the selection of appropriate values for statically indeterminate reactions. It is solved in a function space of finite dimension instead of using a general variational approach, obtaining near-optimal solutions. The results obtained with this profitable strategy are very close to the best layouts known to date, with differences of less than 2% for the stress volume, but with a simpler layout that can be recognized in some real bridges. This strategy could be a guide to preliminary design of bridges subject to a wide class of costs.