Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Näkemyksiä käsityöopetuksen kehitystarpeista yhtenäisessä perusopetuksessa

The objective of this study was to find out what development targets craft teachers could identify in the comprehensive school classes 1 through 9 after the curriculum of the year 2004 had declared craft education uniform in textile and technical craft. Earlier research had shown that after this curricular reform craft education had been carried out in dissimilar ways in different municipalities and schools. This causes differences in the contents of teaching and thus in learning outcomes on national level. The most problematic situations occur on the 7th grade when the classes contain pupils with very heterogeneous skill levels. My intention is to find general themes in craft education that are significant when considering developmental objectives. The problem was explored by four research questions as follows: What kind of problems have craft teachers confronted during the application of the curriculum 2004, what are the most important objectives and contents in craft for the comprehensive school, how craft education should be arranged in the future and what prerequisites should be considered to generate high quality craft education? The study was carried out by a qualitative research approach. The informants consisted of 21 persons, out of which 15 were textile or technical teachers and six were textile or technical teacher students. The research data was collected in the form of short open narratives, based on a partially structured inquiry. Respectively content analysis was applied for analysis of the narratives. Research results revealed that craft teachers were mainly satisfied in uniform craft and hoped that both textile and technical craft could be compulsory school subjects for both genders. Textile and technical craft should be defined as separate independent school subjects, both of which should be developed with broader and high quality contents. Craft subjects should be allocated more teaching time. Teachers asked for a more logically proceeding curriculum, initiating from the beginning to the end of the compulsory school. It was suggested that this could be done by a qualified subject teacher. A uniform curriculum solution must be found for the whole country.

Biomass gasification: Environmentally sound technology for decentralized power generation, a case study from India

This study aims at understanding the need for decentralized power generation systems and to explore the potential, feasibility and environmental implications of biomass gasifier-based electricity generation systems for village electrification. Electricity needs of villages are in the range of 5–20 kW depending on the size of the village. Decentralized power generation systems are desirable for low load village situations as the cost of power transmission lines is reduced and transmission and distribution losses are minimised. A biomass gasifier-based electricity generation system is one of the feasible options; the technology is readily available and has already been field tested. To meet the lighting and stationary power needs of 500,000 villages in India the land required is only 16 Mha compared to over 100 Mha of degraded land available for tree planting. In fact all the 95 Mt of woody biomass required for gasification could be obtained through biomass conservation programmes such as biogas and improved cook stoves. Thus dedication of land for energy plantations may not be required. A shift to a biomass gasifier-based power generation system leads to local benefits such as village self reliance, local employment and skill generation and promotion of in situ plant diversity plus global benefits like no net CO2 emission (as sustainable biomass harvests are possible) and a reduction in CO2 emissions (when used to substitute thermal power and diesel in irrigation pump sets).

Löydöstä muinaispuvuksi : arkeologisten tekstiilien ennallistaminen

From a find to an ancient costume - reconstruction of archaeological textiles Costume tells who we are. It warms and protects us, but also tells about our identity: gender, age, family, social group, work, religion and ethnicity. Textile fabrication, use and trade have been an important part of human civilization for more than 10 000 years. There are plenty of archaeological textile findings, but they are small, fragmentary and their interpretation requires special skills. Finnish textile findings from the younger Iron Age have already been studied for more than hundred years. They have also been used as a base for several reconstructions called muinaispuku , ancient costume. Thesis surveys the ancient costume reconstruction done in Finland and discusses the objectives of the reconstruction projects. The earlier reconstruction projects are seen as a part of the national project of constructing a glorious past for Finnish nationality, and the part women took in this project. Many earlier reconstructions are designed to be festive costumes for wealthy ladies. In the 1980s and 1990s many new ancient costume reconstructions were made, differing from their predecessors at the pattern of the skirt. They were also done following the principles of making a scientific reconstruction more closely. At the same time historical re-enactment and living history as a hobby have raised in popularity, and the use of ancient costumes is widening from festive occasions to re-enactment purposes. A hypothesis of the textile craft methods used in younger Iron Age Finland is introduced. Archaeological findings from Finland and neighboring countries, ethnological knowledge of textile crafts and experimental archaeology have been used as a basis for this proposition. The yarn was spinned with a spindle, the fabrics woven on a warp-weighted loom and dyed with natural colors. Bronze spiral applications and complicated tablet-woven bands have possibly been done by specialist craftswomen or -men. The knowledge of the techniques and results of experimenting and experimental archaeology gives a possibility to review the success of existing ancient costume reconstructions as scientific reconstructions. Only one costume reconstruction project, the Kaarina costume fabricated in Kurala Kylämäki museum, has been done using as authentic methods as possible. The use of ancient craft methods is time-consuming and expensive. This fact can be seen as one research result itself for it demonstrates how valuable the ancient textiles have been also in their time of use. In the costume reconstruction work, the skill of a craftswoman and her knowledge of ancient working methods is strongly underlined. Textile research is seen as a process, where examination of original textiles and reconstruction experiments discuss with each other. Reconstruction projects can give a lot both to the research of Finnish younger Iron Age and the popularization of archaeological knowledge. The reconstruction is never finished, and also the earlier reconstructions should be reviewed in the light of new findings.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

A model for tool-use traditions in primates: implications for the coevolution of culture and cognition

Inspired by the demonstration that tool-use variants among wild chimpanzees and orangutans qualify as traditions (or cultures), we developed a formal model to predict the incidence of these acquired specializations among wild primates and to examine the evolution of their underlying abilities. We assumed that the acquisition of the skill by an individual in a social unit is crucially controlled by three main factors, namely probability of innovation, probability of socially biased learning, and the prevailing social conditions (sociability, or number of potential experts at close proximity). The model reconfirms the restriction of customary tool use in wild primates to the most intelligent radiation, great apes; the greater incidence of tool use in more sociable populations of orangutans and chimpanzees; and tendencies toward tool manufacture among the most sociable monkeys. However, it also indicates that sociable gregariousness is far more likely to produce the maintenance of invented skills in a population than solitary life, where the mother is the only accessible expert. We therefore used the model to explore the evolution of the three key parameters. The most likely evolutionary scenario is that where complex skills contribute to fitness, sociability and/or the capacity for socially biased learning increase, whereas innovative abilities (i.e., intelligence) follow indirectly. We suggest that the evolution of high intelligence will often be a byproduct of selection on abilities for socially biased learning that are needed to acquire important skills, and hence that high intelligence should be most common in sociable rather than solitary organisms. Evidence for increased sociability during hominin evolution is consistent with this new hypothesis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Salmonella enterica serovars Typhimurium and Typhi as model organisms Revealing paradigm of host-pathogen interactions

The lifestyle of intracellular pathogens has always questioned the skill of a microbiologist in the context of finding the permanent cure to the diseases caused by them. The best tool utilized by these pathogens is their ability to reside inside the host cell, which enables them to easily bypass the humoral immunity of the host, such as the complement system. They further escape from the intracellular immunity, such as lysosome and inflammasome, mostly by forming a protective vacuole-bound niche derived from the host itself. Some of the most dreadful diseases are caused by these vacuolar pathogens, for example, tuberculosis by Mycobacterium or typhoid fever by Salmonella. To deal with such successful pathogens therapeutically, the knowledge of a host-pathogen interaction system becomes primarily essential, which further depends on the use of a model system. A well characterized pathogen, namely Salmonella, suits the role of a model for this purpose, which can infect a wide array of hosts causing a variety of diseases. This review focuses on various such aspects of research on Salmonella which are useful for studying the pathogenesis of other intracellular pathogens.

Mapping joint ROM on a cube using electromagnetic trackers

This paper presents a unified framework using the unit cube for measurement, representation and usage of the range of motion (ROM) of body joints with multiple degrees of freedom (d.o.f) to be used for digital human models (DHM). Traditional goniometry needs skill and kn owledge; it is intrusive and has limited applicability for multi-d.o.f. joints. Measurements using motion capture systems often involve complicated mathematics which itself need validation. In this paper we use change of orientation as the measure of rotation; this definition does not require the identification of any fixed axis of rotation. A two-d.o.f. joint ROM can be represented as a Gaussian map. Spherical polygon representation of ROM, though popular, remains inaccurate, vulnerable due to singularities on parametric sphere and difficult to use for point classification. The unit cube representation overcomes these difficulties. In the work presented here, electromagnetic trackers have been effectively used for measuring the relative orientation of a body segment of interest with respect to another body segment. The orientation is then mapped on a surface gridded cube. As the body segment is moved, the grid cells visited are identified and visualized. Using the visual display as a feedback, the subject is instructed to cover as many grid cells as he can. In this way we get a connected patch of contiguous grid cells. The boundary of this patch represents the active ROM of the concerned joint. The tracker data is converted into the motion of a direction aligned with the axis of the segment and a rotation about this axis later on. The direction identifies the grid cells on the cube and rotation about the axis is represented as a range and visualized using color codes. Thus the present methodology provides a simple, intuitive and accura te determination and representation of up to 3 d.o.f. joints. Basic results are presented for the shoulder. The measurement scheme to be used for wrist and neck, and approach for estimation of the statistical distribution of ROM for a given population are also discussed.

Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

SUSTAINABILITY IN TRADITIONAL HANDLOOMS

The handloom sector constitutes a distinct feature of the rich cultural heritage of India and plays a vital role in the economy and cultural identity of the country. It is an ancient industry and is source of livelihood for many villages in India. Its spread varies in style, practice and scale throughout the country - in certain regions it is has a proficient industry, while in others its establishment is localized, where it is a family-based activity. While, hand-woven fabrics are well-sought after both nationally and globally, weavers currently remain marginalized and often impoverished. The well-set power loom industry has further added to their woes. Given the progressive failure of centralized production and distribution ideologies, handlooms represent a decentralized distributed means of livelihood security, environmental consonance, employment generation, skill enhancement, cultural (diversity, identity and) integrity and sustainability. The fabrics and dyes used in the handloom industry are environment-friendly and often unique to a region (based on available skill and resources). The paper comprehensively evaluates and forecasts sustainability in the context of traditional handlooms in India. Results of the study and recommendations are presented in this paper.