Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sand storms: CFD analysis of Reynolds stress and collision stress of particles near sand bed

Sand storm is a serious environmental threat to humans. Sand particles are transported by saltation and suspension, causing soil erosion in one place and deposition in another. In order to prevent and predict sand storms, the causes and the manners of particle motions must be studied in detail. In this paper a standard k-epsilon model is used for the gas phase simulation and the discrete element method (DEM) is used to predict the movements of particles using an in-house procedure. The data are summarized in an Eulerian-Eulerian regime after simulation to get the statistical particle Reynolds stress and particle collision stress. The results show that for the current case the Reynolds stress and the air shear stress predominate in the region 20-250 mm above the initial sand bed surface. However, in the region below 3 mm, the collision stress must be taken into account in predicting particle movement. (C) 2010 Chinese Society of Particuology and Institute of Process Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of the Lanzhou Penning Trap LPT

The LPT (Lanzhou Penning Trap) is under construction and its task is to perforin direct mass measurement of fusion-evaporation residue, and if possible for heavy isotopes. Detailed simulations have been clone for a good understanding to the ion's movement and mechanics in the trap. The optimizal ion of the LPT is also performed based on the simulation. With a scale of 0.5 mm per grid used in the, simulation and many other limitations a highest mass resolution has been achieved to be 1.9 x 10(-5). An unexpected behavioin in the simulation related to magnetron motion has been found.

Fast simulation of the forward tracking detector of HPLUS

The necessity of installing a forward tracking detector stack is discussed for the Hadron Physics LanzhoU Spectrometer(HPLUS). A local tracker is developed to solve the multi-track finding problem. The track candidates are searched iteratively via Hough Transform. The fake tracks are removed by a least square fitting process. With this tracker we have studied the feasibility of pp -> pp + phi(-> K+K-), a typical physical channel proposed on HPLUS. The single track momentum resolution due to the uncertainty of the positioning in FTD is 1.3%. The multiple scattering effect contributes about 20% to the momentum resolution in the FTD coverage. The width and the signal-to-background ratio of the reconstructed phi are 1.51 MeV and 4.36, respectively, taking into account the direct Kaon channel pp -> pp + K+K- as background. The geometry coverage of FTD for phi events is about 85.4%. Based on the current fast simulation and estimation, the geometrical configuration of FTD meets the physical requirement of HPLUS under the current luminosity and multiplicity conditions. The tracker is applicable in the full simulation coming next and is extendable to other tracking component of HPLUS.

Application of altimetry data assimilation on mesoscale eddies simulation

Mesoscale eddy plays an important role in the ocean circulation. In order to improve the simulation accuracy of the mesoscale eddies, a three-dimensional variation (3DVAR) data assimilation system called Ocean Variational Analysis System (OVALS) is coupled with a POM model to simulate the mesoscale eddies in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. In this system, the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) data by satellite altimeters are assimilated and translated into pseudo temperature and salinity (T-S) profile data. Then, these profile data are taken as observation data to be assimilated again and produce the three-dimensional analysis T-S field. According to the characteristics of mesoscale eddy, the most appropriate assimilation parameters are set up and testified in this system. A ten years mesoscale eddies simulation and comparison experiment is made, which includes two schemes: assimilation and non-assimilation. The results of comparison between two schemes and the observation show that the simulation accuracy of the assimilation scheme is much better than that of non-assimilation, which verified that the altimetry data assimilation method can improve the simulation accuracy of the mesoscale dramatically and indicates that it is possible to use this system on the forecast of mesoscale eddies in the future.

基于障碍预估与概率方向权值的移动机器人动态路径规划

主要研究了移动机器人在未知动态环境中的路径规划问题.提出一种将障碍预估与概率方向权值相结合的动态路径规划新方法.该方法将卡尔曼滤波引入到规划算法中,使得对障碍物运动状态的实时有效预估成为可能.同时,为实现移动机器人的实时路径规划,提出一种新的概率方向权值方法,基于周期规划将障碍物与目标信息进行融合,能够有效处理室内环境下对于障碍物的速度和运动轨迹均未知的动态路径规划问题.仿真结果以及基于SmartROB2移动机器人平台所进行的实验结果验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.

Theoretical and experimental research on time-optimal trajectory planning and control of industrial robots

提出了一种用于工业机器人时间最优轨迹规划及轨迹控制的新方法，它可以确保在关节位移、速度、加速度以及二阶加速度边界值的约束下，机器人手部沿笛卡尔空间中规定路径运动的时间阳短。在这种方法中，所规划的关节轨迹都采用二次多项式加余弦函数的形式，不仅可以保证各关节运动的位移、速度 、加速度连续而且还可以保证各关节运动的二阶加速度连续。采用这种方法，既可以提高机器人的工作效率又可以延长机器人的工作寿命以PUMA560机器人为对象进行了计算机仿真和机器人实验，结果表明这种方法是正确的有效的。它为工业机器人在非线性运动学约束条件下的时间最优轨迹规划及控制问题提供了一种较好的解决方案。

水-盐-气天然流体的物理化学性质模拟与流体包裹体应用研究

Natural fluids with water-salt-gas are often found in every sphere of the Earth, whose physicochemical properties and geochemical behaviors are complicated. To study these properties and behaviors turns out to be one of the challenging issues in geosciences. Traditional approaches mainly depend on experiments and observations. However, it is impossible to obtain a large number of data covering a large T-P space of the Earth by experimental methods in the near future, which will hinder the advance of the theoretical study. Therefore, it is important to model natural fluids by advanced theoretical methods, by which limited experimental data can be extended to a large temperature-pressure-composition space. Physicochemical models developed in this dissertation are not only more accurate, but also extend the applied T-P-m region of the experimental data of the multi-fluid systems by about two times. These models provide the new and accurate theoretical tools for the geochemical research, especially for the water-rock interactions and the study of the fluid inclusions. The main achievements can be summarized as follows: (1) A solubility model on components of natural gases is presented. The solubility model on the systems of CH4-H2O-NaCl, C2H6-H2O-NaCl or N2-H2O-NaCl takes advantage of modern physicochemical theory and methods, and is an improvement over previous models whose prediction and precision are relatively poor. The model can predict not only the gas solubility in liquid phase but also water content in the gas phase. In addition, it can predict gases (methane or nitrogen) solubility in seawater and brine. Isochores can be determined, which are very important in the interpretation of fluid inclusions. (2) A density model on common aqueous salt solutions is developed. The density models with high precision for common aqueous salt solutions (H2O-NaCl, H2O-LiCl, H2O-KCl, H2O-MgCl2, H2O-CaCl2, H2O-SrCl2 or H2O-BaCl2) are absent in the past. Previous density models are limited to the relatively small range of experimental data, and cannot meet the requirement of the study of natural fluids. So a general density model of the above systems is presented by us based on the international standard density model of the water. The model exceeds the other models in both precision and prediction. (3) A viscosity model on common aqueous alkali-chloride solutions is proposed. Dynamic viscosity of water-salt systems, an important physics variable, is widely used in three-dimension simulation of the fluids. But in most cases, due to the lack of viscosity models with a wide T-P range, the viscosity of aqueous salt solutions is replaced by that of the water, giving rise to a relatively large uncertainty. A viscosity model with good prediction for the systems (H2O-NaCl, H2O-LiCl or H2O-KCl) is presented on the base of the international standard viscosity model of water and the density model developed before. (4) Equation of State applied in fluid inclusions. The best Equations of State in the world developed by others or us recently are applied in the study of the fluid inclusions. Phase equilibria and isochores of unitary system (e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4, O2, N2, C2H6 or H2S), binary H2O-NaCl system and ternary H2O-CH4-NaCl system are finished. From these programs and thermodynamic equations of coexisting ores, the physicochemical conditions before or after the deposits form can be determined. To some extent, it is a better tool.

冀东油田柳南地区新近系油藏剩余油形成及分布规律研究

This thesis is based on the research project of Study on the Geological Characteristics and Remaining Oil Distribution Law of Neogene Reservoirs in Liunan Area, which is one of the key research projects set by PetroChina Jidong Oilfield Company in 2006. The determination of remaining oil distribution and its saturation changes are the most important research contents for the development and production modification of oilfields in high water-cut phases. Liunan oilfield, located in Tangshan of Hebei Province geographically and in Gaoliu structural belt of Nanpu sag in Bohai Bay Basin structurally, is one of the earliest fields put into production of Jidong oilfield. Focusing on the development problems encountered during the production of the field, this thesis establishes the fine geological reservoir model through the study of reservoir properties such as fine beds correlation, sedimentary facies, micro structures, micro reservoir architecture, flow units and fluid properties. Using routine method of reservoir engineering and technology of reservoir numerical modeling, remaining oil distribution in the target beds of Liunan area is predicted successfully, while the controling factors of remaining oil distribution are illustrated, and the model of remaining oil distribution for fault-block structure reservoirs is established. Using staged-subdivision reservoir correlation and FZI study, the Strata in Liunan Area is subdivided step by step; oil sand body data-list is recompiled; diagram databases are established; plane and section configuration of monolayer sandstone body, and combination pattern of sandstone bodys are summarized. The study of multi-level staged subdivision for sedimentary micro-facies shows that the Lower member of Minghuazhen formation and the whole Guantao formation in Liunan Area belong to meandering river and braided river sedimentary facies respectively, including 8 micro facies such as after point bar, channel bar, channel, natural levee, crevasse splay, abandoned channel, flood plain and flood basin. Fine 3D geological modeling is performed through the application of advanced software and integration of geological, seismic logging and reservoir engineering data. High resolution numerical simulation is performed with a reserve fitting error less than 3%, an average pressure fitting fluctuation range lower than 2Mpa and an accumulate water cut fitting error less than 5%. In this way, the distribution law of the target reservoir in the study area is basically recognized. Eight major remaining oil distribution models are established after analysis of production status and production features in different blocks and different layers. In addition, fuzzy mathematics method is used to the integreted evaluation and prediction of abundant remaining oil accumulation area in major production beds and key sedimentary time units of the shallow strata in Liunan Area and corresponding modification comments are put forward. In summary, the establishment of fine reservoir geological model, reservoir numerical simulation and distribution prediction of remaining oil make a sound foundation for further stimulation of oilfield development performance.

地震资料叠前储层预测综合研究--以辽中凹陷东二下段浊积扇气藏为例

Reservoir prediction techniques from prestack seismic are among the most important ones for exploration of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir. In this paper, we set the turbidite fan sandstone reservoir in Liao-Zhong depress as our researching target, and aims to solve the apllication difficulties on pre-stack inversion in the area, where the drilling data is scarce and the reservoir is lateral varied. Meanwhile, AVO analysis and pre-stack inversion for gas-bearing detection is systematically researched. The seismic reflection characters of gas-bearing sandstone in turbidite fan with different fluid content are defined, after analyzing results from AVO seismic simulation and porous fluid replacement of real log data, and under the guides of the seismic characters from classical gas-bearing sandstone reservoir and numerical simulation for complicate gas-bearing sandstone. It is confirmed that detecting gas-bearing sandstone in turbidite fan via AVO technologies is feasible. In terms of AVO analysis, two AVO characters, fluid detection factor and product of intercept and gradient, can effectively identify top and bottom boundaries and lateral range of tuibidite gas sand by comparing real drilling data. Cross-plotting of near and far angle stack data could avoid the correlation existing in P-G analysis. After comparing the acoustic impedance inversions with routine stacked data and AVO intercept, impedance derived from AVO intercept attribute could reduce the acoustic impedance estimating error which is caused by AVO. On the aspect of elastic impedance inversion, the AVO information in the pre-stack gathers is properly reserved by creating partial angle stack data. By the far angle elastic impedance alone, the gas sand, with abnormally low range of values, can be identified from the background rocks. The boundary of gas sand can also be clearly determined by cross-plotting of near and far angle elastic impedances. The accuracy of far angle elastic impedance is very sensitive to the parameter K, and by taking the statistical average of Vp/Vs on the targeted section in key wells, the accuracy of low frequency trends is gurranteed; the intensive absorsion within the area of the gas sand, which tends to push the spectral of seismic data to the lower end, will cause errors on the inversion result of elastic impedance. The solution is to confine the inversion on the interested area by improving the wavelet. On the aspect of prestack AVA simultaneous inversion, the constraint of local rock-physical trends between velocities of P-wave、S-wave and density successfully removes the instability of inversion, thus improves the precision of the resulting elastic parameters. Plenty of data on rock properties are derived via AVO analysis and prestack seismic data inversion. Based on them, the fluid anomaly is analysized and lithological interpretation are conducted. The distribution of gas sand can be consistently determined via various of ways, such as cross-plotting of P and G attributes, near and far partial angle stack data, near and far angle elastic impedances, λρ and Vp/Vs, etc. The shear modulo and density are also reliable enough to be used for lithological interpretation. We successfully applied the AVO analysis and pre-stack inversion techniques to gas detecting for turbidite fan sand reservoir in Liao-Zhong depression.

复杂断块油藏形成机制及剩余油预测

The central uplift in the Huimin depression is famous for its large amounts of faults and small-scale fault-block area, and it is the famed typical complicated fault-block group oil & gas field in the whole world. After many years of rolling exploration and exploitation, many complex oil &gas field have been discovered in the central uplift, and won the splendent fruit. With the gradual deepening and development of the rolling exploitation, the exploration faces more and more difficulties. Therefore, it is important to reveal the forming mechanism and distributing rule of the complex fault-block reservoir, and to realize the forecast of the complex fault-block reservoir, sequentially, expedite the exploration step. This article applies the new multi-subject theory, method and technique such as structure geometry, kinematics, dynamics, structural stress field, fluid potential field, well logging record and constrained inversion of seismic records, coherence analysis, the seal mold and seal history of oil-bounded fault etc, and try to reveal the forming mechanism and distributing law of the complex fault-block reservoir, in result, implements the forecast of the fault-block reservoir and the remaining oil distributing. In order to do so, this article synthetically carries out structural estimate, reservoir estimate, fault sealing history estimate, oil-bearing properties estimate and residual. This article also synthetically researches, describes and forecast the complex fault-block in Huimin depression by use of the techniques, e.g. seismetic data post-stack processing technique, multi-component demarcating technique, elaborate description technique for the fault-block structure, technique of layer forecasting, fault sealing analysis technique, comprehensive estimate technique of fault-block, comprehensive analysis and estimate technique of remaining oil etc. The activities of the faults varies dramatically in the Huimin depression, and most of the second-class and the third-class faults are contemporaneous faults, which control the macroscopical distribution of the reservoir in the Huimin depression. The fourth-class faults cause the complication between the oil & gas among the fault-blocks. The multi-period strong activities of the Linyi fracture resulted in the vertical migration of large amount of oil & gas along with the faults. This is the main reason for the long vertical distribution properties near the Linyi fracture in the Huimin depression. The sealing ability of the fault is controlled by the property,size and direction of the main stress, the contact relationship of the both sides of the fault, the shale polluting factor, and the configuration relationship between the fault move period and the migration period of oil & gas. The article suggest four fault-sealing modes in the research zone for the first time, which establishes the foundation for the further forecast of the complex fault-block reservoir. Numerical simulation of the structural stress field reveals the distribution law and the evolvement progress of the three-period stress field from the end of the Dongying period to the Guantao period to nowadays. This article puts forward that the Linyi and Shanghe regions are the low value of the maximum main stress data. This is combined with the fault sealing history estimate, then multi-forming-reservoir in the central uplift is put forward. In the Shanghe oilfield, the article establishes six reservoir geological modes and three remaining oil distributing modes(the plane, the inside layer and the interlayer), then puts forward six increase production measure to enhance the remaining oil recovery ratio. Inducting the exploitation of oilfield, it wins notable economic effects and social effects.

河流-三角洲储层剩余油分布模式及预测

Aim at the variousness and complexity of the spatial distribution of Remaining Oil in the fluvial and delta facies reservoir in paper. For example, in the La-Sa-Xing oilfield of Daqing, based on the research of the control factor and formation mechanization of block, single layer, interlayer and micromechanism, synthesizing the theories and methods of geology, well logging, reservoir engineering, artificial intelligence, physical simulation test , and computer multidisciplinary; Fully utilizing the material of geology, well logging, core well, dynamic monitor of oil and water well, and experimental analysis, from macro to micro, from quality to quantity, from indoor to workplace, we predicted the potentiality and distribution according to the four levels of Block, single layer, interlayer and micromechanism, and comprehensively summarized the different distribution pattern of remaining oil in the fluvial and delta facies reservoir This paper puts forward an efficient method to predict the remaining recoverable reserves by using the water flooding characteristic curve differential method and neutral network; for the first time utilizes multilevel fuzzy comprehensive judgment method and expert neutral network technology to predict the remaining oil distribution in the single layer? comprehensively takes advantage of reservoir flowing unit, indoor physical simulation test, inspection well core analysis and well-logging watered-out layer interpretation to efficiently predict the distribution of remaining oil; makes use of core analysis of different periods and indoor water driving oil test to study the micro distribution of remaining oil and the parameters varying law of reservoir substance properties, rock properties, wetting properties. Based on above, the remaining oil distribution predicting software is developed, which contains four levels of block, single layer, interlayer and micromechanism. This achievement has been used inLa-Sa-Xing oil field of Daqing and good results have been received.

丘陵油田三间房组储层三维地质模型和砂体预测

This paper is belonging to Chinese Petrochemical Corporation's science and technology project. Although it is difficult, it has important theoretical and practical value. The study was aimed to reveal inhomogeneity of two kinds of reservoirs of fan-shaped delta and braided river by using new theories, new methods and new technology about 3-D model building and reservoir knowledge repository throughout the world, and to build reservoir knowledge repository and 3-D geological model which would predict the type of sand body forming reason and distribution rule in order to improve exploration result in Qiuling oil fields. Multi-discipline theories such as petroleum structure geology, reservoir geology, petroleum geology, sequence geology, logging geology, geomathematics and so on are used as guide. The information of geology, seism, logging and production test is combined. Outcrop area and overlap area are combined. By making full use of computer, stable structure, reservoir geometric shape, spatial distribution and inhomogeneity of bed of interest are investigated, described and characterized. Petroleum pool 3-D static geological model of reservoir knowledge repository was built. Sand body distribution was predicted. It has guided oil development, lowed the investment and improved development benefits. Several results are achieved as follows: (1) Strata framework of Sanjianfang group in Qiuling oil field has been established. (2) Geometric shape, spatial distribution and evolve rule of two different forming reason's reservoir of fan-shaped delta and braided river of Sanjianfang group in Qiuling oil field are discussed. (3) The two kinds of reservoirs have lower pore and permeability and very strong inhomogeneity. (4) Reservoir knowledge repository of two different forming reasons has been built of Sanjianfang group, which includes 5 geological knowledge sublibrary. (5) 3-D geological model of two kinds of forming reason's reservoirs has been built. (6) That same sequence instruction a simulation and probability field were used to predict sand body of Sanjianfang group was put forward. Coincidence rate is high after production test. It shows this method has great popularity value. (7) A set of theories, methods and technologies of knowledge repository of two kinds of reservoir of braided river and fan-shaped delta and 3-D geological model building were finished. (8) A set of theories, methods and technologies of investigating, describing, characterizing and predicting two kinds of oil pool were developed. It gets noticeable economic benefit after exploration. Theory and method about extrusion basin are developed.

珠江口盆地流花11-1油田储层非均质性及流体分布规律研究

In order to discover the distribution law of the remaining oil, the paper focuses on the quantitative characterization of the reservoir heterogeneity and the distribution law of the fluid barrier and interbed, based on fine geological study of the reservoir in Liuhuall-1 oil field. The refined quantitative reservoir geological model has been established by means of the study of core analysis, logging evaluation on vertical well and parallel well, and seismic interpretation and prediction. Utilizing a comprehensive technology combining dynamic data with static data, the distribution characteristics, formation condition and controlling factors of remaining oil in Liuhuall-1 oil field have been illustrated. The study plays an important role in the enrichment regions of the remaining oil and gives scientific direction for the next development of the remaining oil. Several achievements have been obtained as follows: l.On the basis of the study of reservoir division and correlation,eight lithohorizons (layer A, B_1, B_2, B_3, C, D, E, and F) from the top to the bottom of the reservoir are discriminated. The reef facies is subdivided into reef-core facies, fore-reef facies and backreef facies. These three subfacies are further subdivided into five microfacies: coral algal limestone, coralgal micrite, coral algal clastic limestone, bioclastic limestone and foraminiferal limestone. In order to illustrate the distribution law of remaining oil in high watercut period, the stratigraphic structure model and sedimentary model are reconstructed. 2.1n order to research intra-layer, inter-layer and plane reservoir heterogeneity, a new method to characterize reservoir heterogeneity by using IRH (Index of Reservoir Heterogeneity) is introduced. The result indicates that reservoir heterogeneity is medium in layer B_1 and B_3, hard in layer A, B_2, C, E, poor in layer D. 3.Based on the study of the distribution law of fluid barrier and interbed, the effect of fluid battier and interbed on fluid seepage is revealed. Fluid barrier and interbed is abundant in layer A, which control the distribution of crude oil in reservoir. Fluid barrier and interbed is abundant relatively in layer B_2,C and E, which control the spill movement of the bottom water. Layer B_1, B_3 and D tend to be waterflooded due to fluid barrier and interbed is poor. 4.Based on the analysis of reservoir heterogeneity, fluid barrier and interbed and the distribution of bottom water, four contributing regions are discovered. The main lies on the north of well LH11-1A. Two minors lie on the east of well LH11-1-3 and between well LH11-1-3 and well LH11-1-5. The last one lies in layer E in which the interbed is discontinuous. 5.The parameters of reservoir and fluid are obtained recurring to core analysis, logging evaluation on vertical well and parallel well, and seismic interpretation and prediction. Theses parameters provide data for the quantitative characterization of the reservoir heterogeneity and the distribution law of the fluid barrier and interbed. 6.1n the paper, an integrated method about the distribution prediction of remaining oil is put forward on basis of refined reservoir geological model and reservoir numerical simulation. The precision in history match and prediction of remaining oil is improved greatly. The integrated study embodies latest trend in this research field. 7.It is shown that the enrichment of the remaining oil with high watercut in Liuhua 11-1 oil field is influenced by reservoir heterogeneity, fluid barrier and interbed, sealing property of fault, driving manner of bottom water and exploitation manner of parallel well. 8.Using microfacies, IRH, reservoir structure, effective thickness, physical property of reservoir, distribution of fluid barrier and interbed, the analysis of oil and water movement and production data, twelve new sidetracked holes are proposed and demonstrated. The result is favorable to instruct oil field development and have gotten a good effect.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.