In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

A model of the rule of law

Economic development requires some limits on what those in power can do | the rule of law | but how can restraints be imposed on the powerful when there is no-one above them? This paper studies equilibrium rules allocating power and resources established by selfinterested incumbents under the threat of rebellions from inside and outside the group in power. Commitment to uphold individuals' rights can only be achieved if power is not as concentrated as incumbents would like it to be, ex post. Power sharing endogenously enables incumbents to commit to otherwise time-inconsistent laws by ensuring more people receive rents under the status quo, and thus want to defend it.

Políticas de conteúdo local: crescimento econômico e rule of law

As chamadas Políticas de Conteúdo Local (“PCLs”) fazem parte de um grupo de políticas desenvolvimentistas adotadas em todo o mundo com o objetivo de maximizar os benefícios sociais e econômicos decorrentes de determinadas atividades econômicas. Neste trabalho, analisaram-se, principalmente, as PCLs relativas à extração e produção de petróleo e gás. O instituto é juridicamente polêmico, uma vez que, além de ser difícil de definir, é instrumentalizado por diversos atos normativos diferentes. Tal situação agrava-se com o fato de que o desenho de cada PCL pode sugerir ou impor diversas medidas de implementação diferentes, com impactos nas diferentes áreas do Direito. Considerando este cenário, aponta-se que o principal objetivo deste trabalho é a análise de transplantes ao nosso ordenamento jurídico de PCLs bem-sucedidas em ordenamentos jurídicos estrangeiros. Para isso, demonstrou-se, em um primeiro momento, que o instituto das PCLs deve ser reinterpretado à luz da Constituição vigente. Isso porque as PCLs foram criadas em uma época em que a escola desenvolvimentista principal era a keynesiana, que foi substituída atualmente pela escola do Rule of Law. Embora nosso ordenamento jurídico tenha acompanhado essa evolução (através de Emendas Constitucionais e adoção de determinadas leis), as PCLs não acompanharam e, por isso, precisam sofrer essa releitura. Nesse sentido, extraíram-se da Lei quatro elementos principais que as PCLs devem preencher para estar em consonância com o Rule of Law: (A) Benefícios aos Consumidores Finais; (B) Sustentabilidade; (C) Transetorialidade; e (D) Ampliação do Mercado de Trabalho. Em sequência, classificaram-se as diversas PCLs mapeadas, exemplificando cada uma. Ao longo da classificação, apontaram-se três critérios que facilitam a identificação das maiores dificuldades jurídicas em cada transplante: (A) Canal; (B) Natureza; e (C) Instrumento. Por fim, quatro PCLs estrangeiras bem-sucedidas foram escolhidas para uma análise mais aprofundada: a Kazakhstan Contract Agency, no Cazaquistão, a Petro Arctic Supplier Asssociation, na Noruega, o Australian Industry Participation Plan na Austrália e o Nigerian Oil & Gas Content Industry Development Act, na Nigéria. Para cada uma, é dedicada uma análise especial. As análises são seguidas pela Conclusão.

The analysis of foreign market entry strategies on the basis of different cultural backgrounds and environments: a qualitative study characterising the differences and similarities of Brazilian and European firms

Moving into a new and foreign market can be challenging, especially when such market has a different culture and working environment in comparison to the home market. Thus, it is of utter importance to adjust a company’s strategy to the new market conditions. Currently, there are no concrete guidelines of what aspects are most important when moving from a developing market such as Brazil into a more sophisticated market like Europe, or vice versa. The present study will examine two companies from the same industry, but with different cultural backgrounds and its strategic similarities and differences for operating in multiple international markets. The data was collected via semi-structured interviews with the Chief Executive Officers (CEOs’) from both companies, using an interview guideline that is based on three different theoretical frameworks. The aim is to give recommendations to these two industries of how to efficiently use existing theoretical frameworks and which aspects are most significant when moving into a new market while keeping in mind a company’s size and background.

O processo de licenciamento de empreendimentos de infraestrutura no Brasil: estudo de caso da intervenção ambiental no setor elétrico

A adoção da modelagem institucional de governança do processo de avaliação ambiental norte-americano, centrada na figura da agência líder, deverá demandar a edição de uma lei formal, prevendo o referido arranjo jurídico-institucional, na forma de uma moldura (framework) adaptável às necessidades especificas e peculiaridades de cada setor da Administração. Dessa forma, a referida lei formal funcionaria como uma norma geral, e como tal poderia ser complementada pela legislação infralegal, que viria a estabelecer as disposições especificas para dar efetividade ao instituo da agência líder nos setores em que seja desejável e oportuna a implantação do mesmo, a critério da Administração. Destarte, a atuação do Poder Legislativo estaria restrita à introdução ao sistema jurídico doméstico do instituto estrangeiro, estabelecendo apenas seus contornos básicos, cabendo à Administração a avaliação da oportunidade e conveniência da escolha dos setores específicos, do estabelecimento dos contornos normativos e do momento da efetiva regulamentação concreta do instituto.

A Learning Function for Parameter Reduction in Spiking Neural Networks with Radial Basis Function

Spiking neural networks - networks that encode information in the timing of spikes - are arising as a new approach in the artificial neural networks paradigm, emergent from cognitive science. One of these new models is the pulsed neural network with radial basis function, a network able to store information in the axonal propagation delay of neurons. Learning algorithms have been proposed to this model looking for mapping input pulses into output pulses. Recently, a new method was proposed to encode constant data into a temporal sequence of spikes, stimulating deeper studies in order to establish abilities and frontiers of this new approach. However, a well known problem of this kind of network is the high number of free parameters - more that 15 - to be properly configured or tuned in order to allow network convergence. This work presents for the first time a new learning function for this network training that allow the automatic configuration of one of the key network parameters: the synaptic weight decreasing factor.

A investigação criminal e a vedação ao anonimato no sistema jurídico brasileiro

The thesis, prepared with basis on deductive reasoning (through the utilization of general concepts of the fundamental rights theory) and on inductive logic (by means of the consideration of particular situations in which the theme has been approached) deals with the criminal investigation and the prohibition of anonymity in the Brazilian law system. The state criminal investigation activity presents not only a substantial constitutional basis, due to the objective dimension of fundamental rights (which imposes an obligation to protect these essential values), but also a formal constitutional basis, arising from the administrative principles of rule of law, morality and efficiency, referred to in article 37 of the Constitution. The criminal investigation, however, is not an unlimited pursuit, being restrained by the duty to consider fundamental rights that oppose to its realization. One of the limits of the state investigation activity, in the Brazilian law system, is the prohibition of anonymity, referred to in article 5°, IV, of the Constitution. This prohibition is a direct constitutional restriction to the freedom of expression that aims to ensure the credibility of the diffusion of ideas and prevent the abusive exercise of this fundamental right, which could harm both persons and the state, with no possibility of punishment to the offending party. Generally, based on this prohibition, it is affirmed that a criminal investigation cannot begin and progress founded on anonymous communication of crimes. Informations about crimes to the investigative authorities require the correct identification of the stakeholders. Therefore, it is sustained that the prohibition of anonymity also comprehends the prohibition of utilization of pseudonyms and heteronyms. The main purpose of this essay is to recognize the limits and possibilities in starting and conducting criminal investigations based on communication of crimes made by unidentified persons, behind the veil of anonymity or hidden by pseudonyms or heteronyms. Although the prohibition of article 5°, IV, of the Constitution is not submitted to direct or indirect constitutional restrictions, this impediment can be object of mitigation in certain cases, in attention to the constitutional values that support state investigation. The pertinence analysis of the restrictions to the constitutional anonymity prohibition must consider the proportionality, integrated by the partial elements of adequacy, necessity and strict sense proportionality. The criminal investigation is a means to achieve a purpose, the protection of fundamental rights, because the disclosure of facts, through the investigatory activity, gives rise to the accomplishment of measures in order to prevent or punish the violations eventually verified. So, the start and the development of the state criminal investigation activity, based on a crime communication carried out by an unidentified person, will depend on the demonstration that the setting up and continuity of an investigation procedure, in each case, are an adequate, necessary and (in a strict sense) proportional means to the protection of fundamental rights

A televisão refletida na escola: a compreensão de mães/educadoras

This work aims to examine the television social representation by mothers/educators as a TV viewers, to understand the meaning of this media in their quotidian and which relations occur between teachers and students in the classroom. The study purpose is the educational television rule, based on a social representation approach. It look for to reveal, through the discourses of five educators who are engaged in pedagogic activities in the Public Elementary School of the Natal city, a significant experience in the media education field progress. It’s also a way to understand which representations the educators have about the television can contribute to aid the idea and critic analysis about the media meaning in the teacher’s formation. Some questions were in the basis of the investigation as: What is the television for the educators who are also TV viewers? How it reaches the classroom? Their relation with the media interfere in the pedagogic practice? Assuming that the verbal technical is one of the formal ways to access the representations, the methodological strategy employed was the open interview, guided by a wide and flexible schedule, leaving the interviewees free to expose their ideas, a attitude adopted to avoid the imposition of interviwer’s points of view, that result in a rich material. Through this strategy it was possible to confirm or to reject presumptions raised in the beginning of the investigation and modify some planning direction lines. The study has as the theory presupposition the contribution of the Mexican researcher Guillermo Orozco Gómez, who, based on the Paulo Freire e Jesús Martín-Barbero ideas, establishes a dialogue between popular Education and the communication theories, mainly the television reception, when he develops an integral view focused on the audience or on the multiple mediations model. The school – and the family, as well – is an important mediator of the media information. The relationship which the teachers establish between the television and their representations about it in their lives reflects effectively and directly on their professional practice and on the media dialogue within the school, it can contribute to the critic reflection which students establish with the media trough the educators mediation

Pearl millet utilization in ccommercial laying hen diets formulated on a total or digestible amino acid basis

An experiment was carried out to evaluate the effect of replacing corn with pearl millet in commercial layer diets, formulated according to the minimal requirements for total and digestible amino acids. Two hundred and forty Lohmann LSL laying hens with 25 weeks of age were distributed in a completely randomized experimental design according to a 2 x 5 factorial arrangement with 3 replicates of 8 birds. Feed was formulated on two amino acid basis (total or digestible) according to Rostagno et al. (2000) and there were five pearl millet inclusion levels (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%). Performance and egg quality were evaluated during five periods of 21 days.At the end of each period, feed intake, egg production, egg weight and feed conversion were evaluated. In the last three days of each period, the following egg quality parameters were evaluated: Haugh Unit, yolk pigmentation index, egg specific weight, shell percentage and shell thickness. Digestible amino acid requirements resulted in decreased feed intake (p<0.01) and increased production costs per mass of eggs (kg) or per dozen eggs (p<0.01) compared to total amino acid requirements. There was a linear reduction in feed intake, egg production, egg weight and yolk pigmentation index with increasing inclusion levels of pearl millet. Therefore, increasing levels of replacement of corn by pearl millet affected bird performance negatively. Besides, production costs were higher with increasing pearl millet levels.

Sunflower meal in commercial layer diets formulated on total and digestible amino acids basis

An experiment was conduced to evaluate the inclusion of sunflower meal (SBM) in commercial layer diets formulated on total or digestible amino acids basis. One hundred forty-four 41-week-old Lohmann LSL layers were distributed in a completely randomized experimental design in a 2 x 4 factorial arrangement with three replications of six birds each. Treatments consisted of a combination of four SBM inclusion levels SBM(0%, 4%, 8%, and 12%) and feed formulation according two amino acid recommendations (total or digestible). The experimental period was divided into five periods of fourteen days. Performance parameters (egg production, feed intake, feed conversion, egg mass) were evaluated for each period. In the last two days of each period, three eggs per replication were collected to evaluate egg quality (Haugh units, specific gravity, egg weight, eggshell thickness, and eggshell percentage). Hens fed on total amino acid recommendation presented the highest values for egg weight. Diets formulated on digestible amino acids basis showed an improvement in eggshell percentage and egg specific gravity. SBM addition in commercial layer diets did not influence performance; however, increasing SBM dietary levels SBM improved eggshell quality.

Prolapse-free relativistic Gaussian basis sets for the superheavy elements up to Uuo (Z=118) and Lr (Z=103)

Prolapse-free basis sets suitable for four-component relativistic quantum chemical calculations are presented for the superheavy elements UP to (118)Uuo ((104)Rf, (105)Db, (106)Sg, (107)Bh, (108)Hs, (109)Mt, (110)Ds, (111)Rg, (112)Uub, (113)Uut, (114)Uuq, (115)Uup, (116)Uuh, (117)Uus, (118)Uuo) and Lr-103. These basis sets were optimized by minimizing the absolute values of the energy difference between the Dirac-Fock-Roothaan total energy and the corresponding numerical value at a milli-Hartree order of magnitude, resulting in a good balance between cost and accuracy. Parameters for generating exponents and new numerical data for some superheavy elements are also presented. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.