Intraocular penetration of penciclovir after oral administration of famciclovir: a population pharmacokinetic model.

OBJECTIVES: We developed a population model that describes the ocular penetration and pharmacokinetics of penciclovir in human aqueous humour and plasma after oral administration of famciclovir. METHODS: Fifty-three patients undergoing cataract surgery received a single oral dose of 500 mg of famciclovir prior to surgery. Concentrations of penciclovir in both plasma and aqueous humour were measured by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Concentrations in plasma and aqueous humour were fitted using a two-compartment model (NONMEM software). Inter-individual and intra-individual variabilities were quantified and the influence of demographics and physiopathological and environmental variables on penciclovir pharmacokinetics was explored. RESULTS: Drug concentrations were fitted using a two-compartment, open model with first-order transfer rates between plasma and aqueous humour compartments. Among tested covariates, creatinine clearance, co-intake of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and body weight significantly influenced penciclovir pharmacokinetics. Plasma clearance was 22.8 ± 9.1 L/h and clearance from the aqueous humour was 8.2 × 10(-5) L/h. AUCs were 25.4 ± 10.2 and 6.6 ± 1.8 μg · h/mL in plasma and aqueous humour, respectively, yielding a penetration ratio of 0.28 ± 0.06. Simulated concentrations in the aqueous humour after administration of 500 mg of famciclovir three times daily were in the range of values required for 50% growth inhibition of non-resistant strains of the herpes zoster virus family. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and aqueous penciclovir concentrations showed significant variability that could only be partially explained by renal function, body weight and comedication. Concentrations in the aqueous humour were much lower than in plasma, suggesting that factors in the blood-aqueous humour barrier might prevent its ocular penetration or that redistribution occurs in other ocular compartments.

Midwest Regional Rail Passenger Initiative and Passenger Rail Service in Iowa Status Report

This report is submitted as required per Iowa Code section 327J.3(5), "The director shall report annually to the general assembly concerning the development and operation of the midwest regional rail system and the state's passenger rail service."

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Radial measures of public services deficit for regional allocation of public funds

The goal of this paper is to present an optimal resource allocation model for the regional allocation of public service inputs. Theproposed solution leads to maximise the relative public service availability in regions located below the best availability frontier, subject to exogenous budget restrictions and equality ofaccess for equal need criteria (equity-based notion of regional needs). The construction of non-parametric deficit indicators is proposed for public service availability by a novel application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models, whose results offer advantages for the evaluation and improvement of decentralised public resource allocation systems. The method introduced in this paper has relevance as a resource allocation guide for the majority of services centrally funded by the public sector in a given country, such as health care, basic and higher education, citizen safety, justice, transportation, environmental protection, leisure, culture, housing and city planning, etc.

Status Report Midwest Regional Rail Passenger Initiative and Passenger Rail Service in Iowa, February 1, 2009

This report is submitted as required per Code of Iowa section 327J.3(5), "The director shall report annually to the general assembly concerning the development and operation of the midwest regional rail system and the state's passenger rail service."

Regional variations in ABC transporter expression along the mouse intestinal tract.

The ATP-binding cassette (ABC) family of proteins comprise a group of membrane transporters involved in the transport of a wide variety of compounds, such as xenobiotics, vitamins, lipids, amino acids, and carbohydrates. Determining their regional expression patterns along the intestinal tract will further characterize their transport functions in the gut. The mRNA expression levels of murine ABC transporters in the duodenum, jejunum, ileum, and colon were examined using the Affymetrix MuU74v2 GeneChip set. Eight ABC transporters (Abcb2, Abcb3, Abcb9, Abcc3, Abcc6, Abcd1, Abcg5, and Abcg8) displayed significant differential gene expression along the intestinal tract, as determined by two statistical models (a global error assessment model and a classic ANOVA, both with a P < 0.01). Concordance with semiquantitative real-time PCR was high. Analyzing the promoters of the differentially expressed ABC transporters did not identify common transcriptional motifs between family members or with other genes; however, the expression profile for Abcb9 was highly correlated with fibulin-1, and both genes share a common complex promoter model involving the NFkappaB, zinc binding protein factor (ZBPF), GC-box factors SP1/GC (SP1F), and early growth response factor (EGRF) transcription binding motifs. The cellular location of another of the differentially expressed ABC transporters, Abcc3, was examined by immunohistochemistry. Staining revealed that the protein is consistently expressed in the basolateral compartment of enterocytes along the anterior-posterior axis of the intestine. Furthermore, the intensity of the staining pattern is concordant with the expression profile. This agrees with previous findings in which the mRNA, protein, and transport function of Abcc3 were increased in the rat distal intestine. These data reveal regional differences in gene expression profiles along the intestinal tract and demonstrate that a complete understanding of intestinal ABC transporter function can only be achieved by examining the physiologically distinct regions of the gut.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Prevalence of left ventricular regional dysfunction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia: a tagged MRI study.

BACKGROUND: Although arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) predominantly affects the right ventricle (RV), genetic/molecular and histological changes are biventricular. Regional left ventricular (LV) function has not been systematically studied in ARVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study population included 21 patients with suspected ARVD who underwent evaluation with MRI including tagging. Eleven healthy volunteers served as control subjects. Peak systolic regional circumferential strain (Ecc, %) was calculated by harmonic phase from tagged MRI based on the 16-segment model. Patients who met ARVD Task Force criteria were classified as definite ARVD, whereas patients with a positive family history who had 1 additional minor criterion and patients without a family history with 1 major or 2 minor criteria were classified as probable ARVD. Of the 21 ARVD subjects, 11 had definite ARVD and 10 had probable ARVD. Compared with control subjects, probable ARVD patients had similar RV ejection fraction (58.9+/-6.2% versus 53.5+/-7.6%, P=0.20), but definite ARVD patients had significantly reduced RV ejection fraction (58.9+/-6.2% versus 45.2+/-6.0%, P=0.001). LV ejection fraction was similar in all 3 groups. Compared with control subjects, peak systolic Ecc was significantly less negative in 6 of 16 (37.5%) segments in definite ARVD and 3 of 16 segments (18.7%) in probable ARVD (all P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: ARVD is associated with regional LV dysfunction, which appears to parallel degree of RV dysfunction. Further large studies are needed to validate this finding and to better define implications of subclinical segmental LV dysfunction.

Status Report Midwest Regional Rail Passenger Initiative and Passenger Rail Service in Iowa February 1, 2010

This report fulfills the requirements of the following Code of Iowa sections: Section 327J.3(1): “The director may expend moneys from the fund to pay the costs associated with the initiation, operation, and maintenance of rail passenger service. The director shall report by February 1 of each year to the legislative services agency concerning the status of the fund including anticipated expenditures for the following fiscal year.” Section 327J.3(5): "The director shall report annually to the general assembly concerning the development and operation of the midwest regional rail system and the state's passenger rail service."

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Status report-Midwest Regional Rail Passenger Initiative and Passenger Rail Service in Iowa, February 1, 2011

This report fulfills the requirements of the following Code of Iowa sections: Section 327J.3(1): “The director may expend moneys from the fund to pay the costs associated with the initiation, operation, and maintenance of rail passenger service. The director shall report by February 1 of each year to the legislative services agency concerning the status of the fund including anticipated expenditures for the following fiscal year.” Section 327J.3(5): "The director shall report annually to the general assembly concerning the development and operation of the midwest regional rail system and the state's passenger rail service."