Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Debris flows as a factor of hillslope evolution controlled by a continuous or a pulse process?

Flood effectiveness observations imply that two families of processes describe the formation of debris flow volume. One is related to the rainfall?erosion relationship, and can be seen as a gradual process, and one is related to additional geological/geotechnical events, those named hereafter extraordinary events. In order to discuss the hypothesis of coexistence of two modes of volume formation, some methodologies are applied. Firstly, classical approaches consisting in relating volume to catchments characteristics are considered. These approaches raise questions about the quality of the data rather than providing answers concerning the controlling processes. Secondly, we consider statistical approaches (cumulative number of events distribution and cluster analysis) and these suggest the possibility of having two distinct families of processes. However the quantitative evaluation of the threshold differs from the one that could be obtained from the first approach, but they all agree in the sense of the coexistence of two families of events. Thirdly, a conceptual model is built exploring how and why debris flow volume in alpine catchments changes with time. Depending on the initial condition (sediment production), the model shows that large debris flows (i.e. with important volume) are observed in the beginning period, before a steady-state is reached. During this second period debris flow volume such as is observed in the beginning period is not observed again. Integrating the results of the three approaches, two case studies are presented showing: (1) the possibility to observe in a catchment large volumes that will never happen again due to a drastic decrease in the sediment availability, supporting its difference from gradual erosion processes; (2) that following a rejuvenation of the sediment storage (by a rock avalanche) the magnitude?frequency relationship of a torrent can be differentiated into two phases, the beginning one with large and frequent debris flow and a later one with debris flow less intense and frequent, supporting the results of the conceptual model. Although the results obtained cannot identify a clear threshold between the two families of processes, they show that some debris flows can be seen as pulse of sediment differing from that expected from gradual erosion.

Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition

Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

N-acetylcysteine normalizes neurochemical changes in the glutathione-deficient schizophrenia mouse model during development.

BACKGROUND: Glutathione (GSH) is the major cellular redox-regulator and antioxidant. Redox-imbalance due to genetically impaired GSH synthesis is among the risk factors for schizophrenia. Here we used a mouse model with chronic GSH deficit induced by knockout (KO) of the key GSH-synthesizing enzyme, glutamate-cysteine ligase modulatory subunit (GCLM).¦METHODS: With high-resolution magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 14.1 T, we determined the neurochemical profile of GCLM-KO, heterozygous, and wild-type mice in anterior cortex throughout development in a longitudinal study design.¦RESULTS: Chronic GSH deficit was accompanied by an elevation of glutamine (Gln), glutamate (Glu), Gln/Glu, N-acetylaspartate, myo-Inositol, lactate, and alanine. Changes were predominantly present at prepubertal ages (postnatal days 20 and 30). Treatment with N-acetylcysteine from gestation on normalized most neurochemical alterations to wild-type level.¦CONCLUSIONS: Changes observed in GCLM-KO anterior cortex, notably the increase in Gln, Glu, and Gln/Glu, were similar to those reported in early schizophrenia, emphasizing the link between redox imbalance and the disease and validating the model. The data also highlight the prepubertal period as a sensitive time for redox-related neurochemical changes and demonstrate beneficial effects of early N-acetylcysteine treatment. Moreover, the data demonstrate the translational value of magnetic resonance spectroscopy to study brain disease in preclinical models.

In pancreatic carcinoma, dual EGFR/HER2 targeting with cetuximab/trastuzumab is more effective than treatment with trastuzumab/erlotinib or lapatinib alone: implication of receptors' down-regulation and dimers' disruption.

We previously demonstrated the synergistic therapeutic effect of the cetuximab (anti-epidermal growth factor receptor [EGFR] monoclonal antibody, mAb)-trastuzumab (anti-HER2 mAb) combination (2mAbs therapy) in HER2(low) human pancreatic carcinoma xenografts. Here, we compared the 2mAbs therapy, the erlotinib (EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor [TKI])-trastuzumab combination and lapatinib alone (dual HER2/EGFR TKI) and explored their possible mechanisms of action. The effects on tumor growth and animal survival of the three therapies were assessed in nude mice xenografted with the human pancreatic carcinoma cell lines Capan-1 and BxPC-3. After therapy, EGFR and HER2 expression and AKT phosphorylation in tumor cells were analyzed by Western blot analysis. EGFR/HER2 heterodimerization was quantified in BxPC-3 cells by time-resolved FRET. In K-ras-mutated Capan-1 xenografts, the 2mAbs therapy gave significantly higher inhibition of tumor growth than the erlotinib/trastuzumab combination, whereas in BxPC-3 (wild-type K-ras) xenografts, the erlotinib/trastuzumab combination showed similar growth inhibition but fewer tumor-free mice. Lapatinib showed no antitumor effect in both types of xenografts. The efficacy of the 2mAbs therapy was partly Fc-independent because F(ab')(2) fragments of the two mAbs significantly inhibited BxPC-3 growth, although with a time-limited therapeutic effect. The 2mAbs therapy was associated with a reduction of EGFR and HER2 expression and AKT phosphorylation. BxPC-3 cells preincubated with the two mAbs showed 50% less EGFR/HER2 heterodimers than controls. In pancreatic carcinoma xenografts, the 2mAbs therapy is more effective than treatments involving dual EGFR/HER2 TKIs. The mechanism of action may involve decreased AKT phosphorylation and/or disruption of EGFR/HER2 heterodimerization.

A novel HIV vaccine adjuvanted by IC31 induces robust and persistent humoral and cellular immunity.

The HIV vaccine strategy that, to date, generated immune protection consisted of a prime-boost regimen using a canarypox vector and an HIV envelope protein with alum, as shown in the RV144 trial. Since the efficacy was weak, and previous HIV vaccine trials designed to generate antibody responses failed, we hypothesized that generation of T cell responses would result in improved protection. Thus, we tested the immunogenicity of a similar envelope-based vaccine using a mouse model, with two modifications: a clade C CN54gp140 HIV envelope protein was adjuvanted by the TLR9 agonist IC31®, and the viral vector was the vaccinia strain NYVAC-CN54 expressing HIV envelope gp120. The use of IC31® facilitated immunoglobulin isotype switching, leading to the production of Env-specific IgG2a, as compared to protein with alum alone. Boosting with NYVAC-CN54 resulted in the generation of more robust Th1 T cell responses. Moreover, gp140 prime with IC31® and alum followed by NYVAC-CN54 boost resulted in the formation and persistence of central and effector memory populations in the spleen and an effector memory population in the gut. Our data suggest that this regimen is promising and could improve the protection rate by eliciting strong and long-lasting humoral and cellular immune responses.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

L’Ensenyament integrat tecnicotàctic dels esports en edat escolar. Explicació i bases d’un model = La Enseñanza integrada técnico-táctica de los deportes en edad escolar. Explicación y bases de un modelo

Teaching in sports with technique and tactic has brought different proposals in last years. From teaching games for understanding (TgfU), it has suggest some activities in teaching of sport, emphasizing the integrate teaching, and now is the moment for analysis and reflection, with enough time to prove if the contribution theory and practices help to know this model of teaching

Taloudellinen ja läpimenoajaltaan lyhyt ruiskupuristusmuotin valmistusprosessi

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli löytää Perlos Tools Joensuun tehtaalle sopiva taloudellinen ja läpimenoajaltaan lyhyt ruiskupuristusmuotin valmistusprosessi. Kirjallisuusosiossa tarkastellaan valmistuksen prosessimalleja, esitellään tärkeimmät muotinvalmistuksen menetelmät, sekä nykytilan ja tulevaisuuden haasteet. Lisäksi tarkastellaan muotinvalmistuksen työajan ja kulujen jakaantumista, tärkeimpiä investointilaskelmia, sekä investointien perustelemista simulointien avulla. Tutkimusosiossa simuloidaan erilaisia prosessimalleja, selvitetään valmistusmenetelmienja koneiden vaikutusta muotinvalmistuksen läpimenoaikaan, sekä lasketaan investointien ja valmistuskoneiden vaikutukset takaisinmaksuaikoihin. Simulaation tavoitteena on asiaankuuluvien mallien, sopivien kysymysten sekä prosessimallien kehittämisen kautta tuottaa analysoitua informaatiota päätöksenteon tueksi. Tutkimustulosten perusteella ruiskupuristusmuotin valmistusprosessi on optimoitu. Optimoinnin tuloksena tarkasteltavalla yrityksellä on käytössään taloudellinen ja läpimenoajaltaan lyhyt ruiskupuristusmuotin valmistusprosessi.

Torque vibration model of axial-flux surface-mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine

In order that the radius and thus ununiform structure of the teeth and otherelectrical and magnetic parts of the machine may be taken into consideration the calculation of an axial flux permanent magnet machine is, conventionally, doneby means of 3D FEM-methods. This calculation procedure, however, requires a lotof time and computer recourses. This study proves that also analytical methods can be applied to perform the calculation successfully. The procedure of the analytical calculation can be summarized into following steps: first the magnet is divided into slices, which makes the calculation for each section individually, and then the parts are submitted to calculation of the final results. It is obvious that using this method can save a lot of designing and calculating time. Thecalculation program is designed to model the magnetic and electrical circuits of surface mounted axial flux permanent magnet synchronous machines in such a way, that it takes into account possible magnetic saturation of the iron parts. Theresult of the calculation is the torque of the motor including the vibrations. The motor geometry and the materials and either the torque or pole angle are defined and the motor can be fed with an arbitrary shape and amplitude of three-phase currents. There are no limits for the size and number of the pole pairs nor for many other factors. The calculation steps and the number of different sections of the magnet are selectable, but the calculation time is strongly depending on this. The results are compared to the measurements of real prototypes. The permanent magnet creates part of the flux in the magnetic circuit. The form and amplitude of the flux density in the air-gap depends on the geometry and material of the magnetic circuit, on the length of the air-gap and remanence flux density of the magnet. Slotting is taken into account by using the Carter factor in the slot opening area. The calculation is simple and fast if the shape of the magnetis a square and has no skew in relation to the stator slots. With a more complicated magnet shape the calculation has to be done in several sections. It is clear that according to the increasing number of sections also the result will become more accurate. In a radial flux motor all sections of the magnets create force with a same radius. In the case of an axial flux motor, each radial section creates force with a different radius and the torque is the sum of these. The magnetic circuit of the motor, consisting of the stator iron, rotor iron, air-gap, magnet and the slot, is modelled with a reluctance net, which considers the saturation of the iron. This means, that several iterations, in which the permeability is updated, has to be done in order to get final results. The motor torque is calculated using the instantaneous linkage flux and stator currents. Flux linkage is called the part of the flux that is created by the permanent magnets and the stator currents passing through the coils in stator teeth. The angle between this flux and the phase currents define the torque created by the magnetic circuit. Due to the winding structure of the stator and in order to limit the leakage flux the slot openings of the stator are normally not made of ferromagnetic material even though, in some cases, semimagnetic slot wedges are used. In the slot opening faces the flux enters the iron almost normally (tangentially with respect to the rotor flux) creating tangential forces in the rotor. This phenomenon iscalled cogging. The flux in the slot opening area on the different sides of theopening and in the different slot openings is not equal and so these forces do not compensate each other. In the calculation it is assumed that the flux entering the left side of the opening is the component left from the geometrical centre of the slot. This torque component together with the torque component calculated using the Lorenz force make the total torque of the motor. It is easy to assume that when all the magnet edges, where the derivative component of the magnet flux density is at its highest, enter the slot openings at the same time, this will have as a result a considerable cogging torque. To reduce the cogging torquethe magnet edges can be shaped so that they are not parallel to the stator slots, which is the common way to solve the problem. In doing so, the edge may be spread along the whole slot pitch and thus also the high derivative component willbe spread to occur equally along the rotation. Besides forming the magnets theymay also be placed somewhat asymmetric on the rotor surface. The asymmetric distribution can be made in many different ways. All the magnets may have a different deflection of the symmetrical centre point or they can be for example shiftedin pairs. There are some factors that limit the deflection. The first is that the magnets cannot overlap. The magnet shape and the relative width compared to the pole define the deflection in this case. The other factor is that a shifting of the poles limits the maximum torque of the motor. If the edges of adjacent magnets are very close to each other the leakage flux from one pole to the other increases reducing thus the air-gap magnetization. The asymmetric model needs some assumptions and simplifications in order to limit the size of the model and calculation time. The reluctance net is made for symmetric distribution. If the magnets are distributed asymmetrically the flux in the different pole pairs will not be exactly the same. Therefore, the assumption that the flux flows from the edges of the model to the next pole pairs, in the calculation model from one edgeto the other, is not correct. If it were wished for that this fact should be considered in multi-pole pair machines, this would mean that all the poles, in other words the whole machine, should be modelled in reluctance net. The error resulting from this wrong assumption is, nevertheless, irrelevant.

Tuotannonsuunnittelun ja sisäisen varastologistiikan kehittäminen tuottavuuden kannalta

Diplomityön tavoitteena on kehittää erään metsäteollisuusyrityksen tuotannon-suunnittelua ja sisäistä varastologistiikkaa tuottavuuden parantamiseksi. Työssä keskitytään välituotteista johtuvaan problematiikkaan. Ongelmana ovat suuret välituotevarastot ja toimintamalleissa sekä pelisäännöissä olevat puutteet. Työn päätavoitteena on uuden toimintamallin kehittäminen tuotannon- ja materiaalinohjaukseen. Työn teoriaosassa esitellään lyhyesti tuotannon- ja materiaalinohjausta sekä tuottavuutta. Työn empiirisessä osassa analysoidaan jatkojalostuksen tuotantoja sekä välituotevarastoja. Työssä selvitetään eri välituotteiden määrät ja varaston kiertonopeudet raaka-ainerullille. Analyysien perusteella kehitettiin uusi toimintamalli tuotannon- ja materiaalinohjaukseen. Työssä ehdotettiin myös varastoinvestointia ja jälkirullauskapasiteetin lisäystä, jotta optimaalinen toiminta olisi tulevaisuudessa mahdollista. Diplomityön seurauksena aloitetaan projekti, jonka tavoitteena on parantaa tehtaan sisäistä tehokkuutta. Vaikutukset näkyvät monissa toiminnoissa, kuten varastoissa, tuotannossa sekä myynnissä. Parannusehdotuksilla voidaan saavuttaa vuosittain muutaman miljoonan euron säästöt. Projektin yksi tärkeä tekijä on selvittää, kuinka toimintaidea olisi hyödynnettävissä yrityksen muissa tehtaissa.

Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

Moottorimalliton skalaarisäätö

Työssä tutkitaan nopeusanturittoman vaihtovirtakäytön skalaarisia ohjaus- ja säätömenetelmiä. Työn alussa esitetään perusteoriat taajuusmuuttajista ja oikosulkumoottoreista. Tämän jälkeen esitellään yleisimmin kirjallisuudessa esiintyneet skalaariohjaukset ja –säädöt. Vektorisäätöä ja erityisesti moottoriparametrien vaikutusta säädön toimivuuteen esitellään lyhyesti. Työn tavoitteena on ACS800 taajuusmuuttajan skalaarisäädön tutkiminen. ACS800:n nykyinen skalaarisäätö on liian sidoksissa vektorisäätöön, joten simulointien ja kirjallisuustutkimuksen tarkoituksena on täysin vektorisäädöstä eriytetyn skalaarisäädön kehitysmahdollisuuksien tutkiminen. Kirjallisuudessa esiintyneiden säätöjen avulla muodostetaan diskreettiaikainen toteutus skalaarisäädölle vaihtovirtakäytössä, jossa on käytössä virran ja välipiirijännitteen takaisinkytkentä. Säädettävää moottoria mallinnetaan jatkuvaaikaisella L-sijaiskytkennällä. Välipiirin mallinnus toimii myös jatkuva-aikaisena lukuun ottamatta välipiirin tasavirtakomponenttia, joka muodostetaan virran takaisinkytkennän ja PWM-modulaattorin kytkinasentojen avulla. Simuloinnin tarkoituksena on mallintaa skalaarisäädön suurimpia ongelmia, kuten virta- ja välijännitesäätöä. Tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että perussäädöt toimivat moitteettomasti, mutta erityisesti virtasäätöä tulisi kehittää.

Vitamin D time profile based on the contribution of non-genetic and genetic factors in HIV-infected individuals of European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency is prevalent in HIV-infected individuals and vitamin D supplementation is proposed according to standard care. This study aimed at characterizing the kinetics of 25(OH)D in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals of European ancestry to better define the influence of genetic and non-genetic factors on 25(OH)D levels. These data were used for the optimization of vitamin D supplementation in order to reach therapeutic targets. METHODS: 1,397 25(OH)D plasma levels and relevant clinical information were collected in 664 participants during medical routine follow-up visits. They were genotyped for 7 SNPs in 4 genes known to be associated with 25(OH)D levels. 25(OH)D concentrations were analysed using a population pharmacokinetic approach. The percentage of individuals with 25(OH)D concentrations within the recommended range of 20-40 ng/ml during 12 months of follow-up and several dosage regimens were evaluated by simulation. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with linear absorption and elimination was used to describe 25(OH)D pharmacokinetics, while integrating endogenous baseline plasma concentrations. Covariate analyses confirmed the effect of seasonality, body mass index, smoking habits, the analytical method, darunavir/ritonavir and the genetic variant in GC (rs2282679) on 25(OH)D concentrations. 11% of the inter-individual variability in 25(OH)D levels was explained by seasonality and other non-genetic covariates, and 1% by genetics. The optimal supplementation for severe vitamin D deficient patients was 300,000 IU two times per year. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis allowed identifying factors associated with 25(OH)D plasma levels in HIV-infected individuals. Improvement of dosage regimen and timing of vitamin D supplementation is proposed based on those results.