875 resultados para Probability of choice


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We use the time-dependent R-matrix approach to investigate an ultrashort pump-probe scheme to observe collective electron dynamics in C(+). The ionization probability of a coherent superposition of the 2s2p(2) (2)D and (2)S states shows rapid modulation due to collective dynamics of the two equivalent 2p electrons, with the modulation frequency linked to the dielectronic repulsion. The best insight into this collective dynamics is achieved by a transformation from LS symmetry to the uncoupled basis. Such dynamics may be important in high-harmonic generation using open-shell atoms and ions.

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The radiation-induced bystander effect (RIBE) increases the probability of cellular response and therefore has important implications for cancer risk assessment following low-dose irradiation and for the likelihood of secondary cancers after radiotherapy. However, our knowledge of bystander signaling factors, especially those having long half-lives, is still limited. The present study found that, when a fraction of cells within a glioblastoma population were individually irradiated with helium ions from a particle microbeam, the yield of micronuclei (MN) in the nontargeted cells was increased, but these bystander MN were eliminated by treating the cells with either aminoguanidine (an inhibitor of inducible nitric oxide (NO) synthase) or anti-transforming growth factor beta1 (anti-TGF-beta1), indicating that NO and TGF-beta1 are involved in the RIBE. Intracellular NO was detected in the bystander cells, and additional TGF-beta1 was detected in the medium from irradiated T98G cells, but it was diminished by aminoguanidine. Consistent with this, an NO donor, diethylamine nitric oxide (DEANO), induced TGF-beta1 generation in T98G cells. Conversely, treatment of cells with recombinant TGF-beta1 could also induce NO and MN in T98G cells. Treatment of T98G cells with anti-TGF-beta1 inhibited the NO production when only 1% of cells were targeted, but not when 100% of cells were targeted. Our results indicate that, downstream of radiation-induced NO, TGF-beta1 can be released from targeted T98G cells and plays a key role as a signaling factor in the RIBE by further inducing free radicals and DNA damage in the nontargeted bystander cells.

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Okadaic acid (OA) and structurally related toxins dinophysistoxin-1 (DTX-1), and DTX-2, are lipophilic marine biotoxins. The current reference method for the analysis of these toxins is the mouse bioassay (MBA). This method is under increasing criticism both from an ethical point of view and because of its limited sensitivity and specificity. Alternative replacement methods must be rapid, robust, cost effective, specific and sensitive. Although published immuno-based detection techniques have good sensitivities, they are restricted in their use because of their inability to: (i) detect all of the OA toxins that contribute to contamination; and (ii) factor in the relative toxicities of each contaminant. Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) were produced to OA and an automated biosensor screening assay developed and compared with ELISA techniques. The screening assay was designed to increase the probability of identifying a MAb capable of detecting all OA toxins. The result was the generation of a unique MAb which not only cross-reacted with both DTX-1 and DTX-2 but had a cross-reactivity profile in buffer that reflected exactly the intrinsic toxic potency of the OA group of toxins. Preliminary matrix studies reflected these results. This antibody is an excellent candidate for the development of a range of functional immunochemical-based detection assays for this group of toxins.

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Since the publication of Hobsbawm and Rudé's Captain Swing our understanding of the role(s) of covert protests in Hanoverian rural England has advanced considerably. Whilst we now know much about the dramatic practices of incendiarism and animal maiming and the voices of resistance in seemingly straightforward acquisitive acts, one major gap remains. Despite the fact that almost thirty years have passed since E. P. Thompson brought to our attention that under the notorious ‘Black Act’ the malicious cutting of trees was a capital offence, no subsequent research has been published. This paper seeks to address this major lacuna by systematically analysing the practices and patterns of malicious attacks on plants (‘plant maiming’) in the context of late eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century southern England. It is shown that not only did plant maiming take many different forms, attacking every conceivable type of flora, but also that it was universally understood and practised. In some communities plant maiming was the protestors' weapon of choice. As a social practice it therefore embodied wider community beliefs regarding the defence of plebeian livelihoods and identities.

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Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1-6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2008.

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Three experiments examined the influence of a second rule on the pattern of card selections on Wason's selection task. In Experiment 1 participants received a version of the task with a single test rule or one of two versions of the task with the same original test rule together with a second rule. The probability of q was manipulated in the two-rules conditions by varying the size of the antecedent set in the second rule. The results showed a significant suppression of q card and not-p card selections in the alternative-rule conditions, but no difference as a function of antecedent set size. In Experiment 2 the size of the antecendent set in the two-rules conditions was manipulated using the context of a computer printing double-sided cards. The results showed a significant reduction of q card selections in the two-rules conditions, but no effect of p set size. In Experiment 3 the scenario accompanying the rule was manipulated, and it specified a single alternative antecedent or a number of alternative antecedents. The q card selection rates were not affected by the scenario manipulation but again were suppressed by the presence of a second rule. Our results suggest that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the task and that these inferences are systematically influenced by the presence of a second rule, but are not influenced by the probabilistic characteristics of this rule. These findings are discussed in the context of decision theoretic views of selection task performance (Oaksford Chater, 1994).

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Incorporation of 1-alkylcarbonyloxymethylprodrugs of 5FU into poly(lactide-co-glycolide) nanoparticles using nanoprecipitation methods gave increased loading efficiencies over that obtained using the parent drug substance. SEM studies revealed spherical nanoparticles of around 200 nm in diameter, corresponding well with measurements made using photon correlation spectroscopy. The C-7 prodrug gave the best mean loading of 47.23%, which compared favourably to 3.68% loading achieved with 5FU. Loading efficiency was seen to follow the hydrophilic-lipophilic balance in the homologue series, where increases in lipophilicities alone were not good predictors of loading. Drug release, in terms of resultant 5FU concentration, was monitored using a flow-through dissolution apparatus. Cumulative drug release from nanoparticles loaded with the C-5 prodrug was linear over 6h, with approximately 14% of the total available 5FU dose released and with no evidence of a burst effect. The flux profile of the C-5-loaded nanoparticles showed an initial peak in flux in the first sampling interval, but became linear for the remainder of the release phase. C-7-loaded nanoparticles released considerably less (4% in 6 h) with a similar flux pattern to that seen with the C-5 prodrug. The C-9-loaded nanoparticles released less than 1% of the available 5FU over 6 h, with a similar zero-order profile. The C7 prodrug was deemed to be the prodrug of choice, achieving the highest loadings and releasing 5FU, following hydrolysis, in a zero-order fashion over a period of at least 6 h. Given the lack of burst effect and steady-state flux conditions, this nanoparticulate formulation offers a better dosing strategy for sustained intravenous use when compared to that arising from nanoparticles made by direct incorporation of 5FU. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective
Preliminary assessment of an automated weaning system (SmartCare™/PS) compared to usual management of weaning from mechanical ventilation performed in the absence of formal protocols.


Design and setting
A randomised, controlled pilot study in one Australian intensive care unit.


Patients
A total of 102 patients were equally divided between SmartCare/PS and Control.

Interventions
The automated system titrated pressure support, conducted a spontaneous breathing trial and provided notification of success (“separation potential”).

Measurements and results
The median time from the first identified point of suitability for weaning commencement to the state of “separation potential” using SmartCare/PS was 20 h (interquartile range, IQR, 2–40) compared to 8 h (IQR 2–43) with Control (log-rank P = 0.3). The median time to successful extubation was 43 h (IQR 6–169) using SmartCare/PS and 40 (14–87) with Control (log-rank P = 0.6). Unadjusted, the estimated probability of reaching “separation potential” was 21% lower (95% CI, 48% lower to 20% greater) with SmartCare/PS compared to Control. Adjusted for other covariates (age, gender, APACHE II, SOFAmax, neuromuscular blockade, corticosteroids, coma and elevated blood glucose), these estimates were 31% lower (95% CI, 56% lower to 9% greater) with SmartCare/PS. The study groups showed comparable rates of reintubation, non-invasive ventilation post-extubation, tracheostomy, sedation, neuromuscular blockade and use of corticosteroids.

Conclusions
Substantial reductions in weaning duration previously demonstrated were not confirmed when the SmartCare/PS system was compared to weaning managed by experienced critical care specialty nurses, using a 1:1 nurse-to-patient ratio. The effect of SmartCare/PS may be influenced by the local clinical organisational context.

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Since 1994, Irish cattle have been exposed to greater risks of acquiring Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection as a consequence of the importation of over 70,000 animals from continental Europe. In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of reported clinical cases of paratuberculosis in Ireland. This study examines the prevalence of factors that promote the introduction and within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) on selected Irish dairy farms in the Cork region, and the association between these factors and the results of MAP screening tests on milk sock filter residue (MFR). A total of 59 dairy farms, selected using non-random methods but apparently free of endemic paratuberculosis, were enrolled into the study. A questionnaire was used to collect data about risk factors for MAP introduction and transmission. The MFR was assessed on six occasions over 24 months for the presence of MAP, using culture and immunomagnetic separation prior to polymerase chain reaction (IMS-PCR). Furthermore, blood samples from all entire male and female animals over one year of age in 20 herds were tested by ELISA. Eighteen (31%) farms had operated as closed herds since 1994, 28 (47%) had purchased from multiple sources and 14 (24%) had either direct or indirect (progeny) contact with imported animals. Milk and colostrum were mixed on 51% of farms, while 88% of farms fed pooled milk. Thirty (51%) herds tested negative to MFR culture and IMS-PCR, 12 (20%) were MFR culture positive, 26 (44%) were IMS-PCR positive and seven (12%) were both culture and IMS-PCR positive. The probability of a positive MFR culture was significantly associated with reduced attendance at calving, and with increased use of individual calf pens and increased (but not significantly) if multiple suckling was practised. There was poor agreement between MFR culture and MFR IMS-PCR results, but moderate agreement between MFR culture and ELISA test results. This study highlights a lack of awareness among Irish dairy farmers about the effect of inadequate biosecurity on MAP introduction. Furthermore, within-herd transmission will be facilitated by traditional calf rearing and waste management practices. The findings of viable MAP in the presence of known transmission factors in non-clinically affected herds could be a prelude to long-term problems for the Irish cattle and agri-business generally.

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Objectives: The Secondary Prevention of Heart disEase in geneRal practicE (SPHERE) trial has recently reported. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention in both healthcare systems on the island of Ireland. Methods: Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. A probabilistic model was developed to combine within-trial and beyond-trial impacts of treatment to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of two secondary prevention strategies: Intervention - tailored practice and patient care plans; and Control - standardized usual care. Results: The intervention strategy resulted in mean cost savings per patient of 512.77 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1086.46-91.98) and an increase in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient of 0.0051 (95 percent CI, 0.0101-0.0200), when compared with the control strategy. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 94 percent if decision makers are willing to pay €45,000 per additional QALY. Conclusions: Decision makers in both settings must determine whether the level of evidence presented is sufficient to justify the adoption of the SPHERE intervention in clinical practice. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

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PURPOSE: Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) causes hereditary blindness in adults (prevalence, approximately 1 in 4000). Each of the more than 30 causative genes identified to date are responsible for only a small percentage of cases. Genetic diagnosis via traditional methods is problematic, and a single test with a higher probability of detecting the causative mutation would be very beneficial for the clinician. The goal of this study therefore was to develop a high-throughput screen capable of detecting both known mutations and novel mutations within all genes implicated in autosomal recessive or simplex RP. DESIGN: Evaluation of diagnostic technology. PARTICIPANTS AND CONTROLS: Participants were 56 simplex and autosomal recessive RP patients, with 360 population controls unscreened for ophthalmic disease. METHODS: A custom genechip capable of resequencing all exons containing known mutations in 19 disease-associated genes was developed (RP genechip). A second, commercially available arrayed primer extension (APEX) system was used to screen 501 individual previously reported variants. The ability of these high-throughput approaches to identify pathogenic variants was assessed in a cohort of simplex and autosomal recessive RP patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of mutations and potentially pathogenic variants identified. RESULTS: The RP genechip identified 44 sequence variants: 5 previously reported mutations; 22 known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs); 11 novel, potentially pathogenic variants; and 6 novel SNPs. There was strong concordance with the APEX array, but only the RP genechip detected novel variants. For example, identification of a novel mutation in CRB1 revealed a patient, who also had a single previously known CRB1 mutation, to be a compound heterozygote. In some individuals, potentially pathogenic variants were discovered in more than one gene, consistent with the existence of disease modifier effects resulting from mutations at a second locus. CONCLUSIONS: The RP genechip provides the significant advantage of detecting novel variants and could be expected to detect at least one pathogenic variant in more than 50% of patients. The APEX array provides a reliable method to detect known pathogenic variants in autosomal recessive RP and simplex RP patients and is commercially available. High-throughput genotyping for RP is evolving into a clinically useful genetic diagnostic tool.

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Background: Drug scenes within several countries have changed in recent years to incorporate a range of licit psychoactive products, collectively known as “legal highs.” Hundreds of different legal high products have been described in the literature. Many of these products contain synthetic stimulants that allegedly
“mirror” the effects of some illicit drugs. In 2009–2010, growing concern by the UK and Irish governments focused on mephedrone, a synthetic stimulant that had become embedded within several drug scenes in Britain and Ireland. In April 2010, mephedrone and related cathinone derivatives were banned under
the UK’s Misuse of Drugs Act 1971. Setting aside “worse case scenarios” that have been portrayed by UK and Irish media, little is known about mephedrone use from the consumer’s perspective. The purpose of this paper was to (1) explore respondents’ experiences with mephedrone, (2) examine users’ perceptions
about the safety of mephedrone, and primarily to (3) examine sources of mephedrone supply during the pre- and post-ban periods.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 23 adults who had used mephedrone during 2009–2010. Data collection occurred in May and June 2010, following the ban on mephedrone. A total of 20/23 respondents had used mephedrone during the post-ban period, and the vast majority had prior
experience with ecstasy or cocaine. Respondents’ ages ranged from 19 to 51, approximately half of the sample were female and the majority (19 of 23) were employed in full- or part-time work.
Results: Most respondents reported positive experiences with mephedrone, and for some, the substance emerged as a drug of choice. None of the respondents reported that the once-legal status of mephedrone implied that it was safe to use. Very few respondents reported purchasing mephedrone from street-based
or on-line headshops during the pre-ban period, and these decisions were guided in part by respondents’ attempts to avoid “drug user” identities. Most respondents purchased or obtained mephedrone from friends or dealers, and mephedrone was widely available during the 10-week period following the ban. Respondents reported a greater reliance on dealers and a change in mephedrone packaging following the criminalisation of mephedrone.
Conclusion: The findings are discussed in the context of what appears to be a rapidly changing mephedrone market. We discuss the possible implications of criminalising mephedrone, including the potential displacement effects and the development of an illicit market.

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In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

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Macroalgal blooms are a growing environmental problem in eutrophicated coastal ecosystems. Members of the green algal genus Ulva are significant contributors to blooms, which are typically dominated by only one of several co-occurring opportunistic species. Our understanding of bloom dynamics, such as the importance of clonality, is limited because previously used genetic markers such as internal transcribed spacer sequences have shown very little resolution. Microsatellites are the marker of choice for such studies, but to date, only five primer pairs have been developed for a single member of this genus, Ulva intestinalis. We have now developed four new microsatellite markers for U. intestinalis using genome screening and restriction-ligation and tested them on individuals from six populations in the Gulf of Finland, Finland. All new markers exhibited polymorphism in U. intestinalis, with the numbers of alleles ranging from 6 to 10. On the basis of assignment tests, F-ST estimates and analysis of molecular variance, there was genetic differentiation among populations. Where significantly different, expected heterozygosity (HE) was higher than observed heterozygosity (Ho), indicating a trend toward heterozygote deficiency. This may indicate that although Ulva spores can disperse relatively efficiently, asexual reproduction can result in genetic differentiation among populations. We also tested the cross-species amplification of our primers and the five primer pairs reported previously on seven species of Ulva, Ulvaria obscura and Unbraulva olivascens (all members of the Ulvaceae). In each species, from five to nine of the loci produced an amplification product, and one to four alleles were discovered at each locus. These markers therefore have great potential for testing hypotheses about the formation and maintenance of multispecies macroalgal blooms.

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An enzyme labeled immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and surface plasmon resonance (SPR) biosensor assay for the detection of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins were developed and a comparative evaluation was performed. A polyclonal antibody (BC67) used in both assay formats was raised to saxitoxin–jeffamine–BSA in New Zealand white rabbits. Each assay format was designed as an inhibition assay. Shellfish samples (n = 54) were evaluated by each method using two simple rapid extraction procedures and compared to the AOAC high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and the mouse bioassay (MBA). The results of each assay format were comparable with the HPLC and MBA methods and demonstrate that an antibody with high sensitivity and broad specificity to PSP toxins can be applied to different immunological techniques. The method of choice will depend on the end-users needs. The reduced manual labor and simplicity of operation of the SPR biosensor compared to ELISA, ease of sample extraction and superior real time semi-quantitative analysis are key features that could make this technology applicable in a high-throughput monitoring unit.