Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Using adaptive automata in a multi-paradigm programming environment

In this paper the architecture of an experimental multiparadigmatic programming environment is sketched, showing how its parts combine together with application modules in order to perform the integration of program modules written in different programming languages and paradigms. Adaptive automata are special self-modifying formal state machines used as a design and implementation tool in the representation of complex systems. Adaptive automata have been proven to have the same formal power as Turing Machines. Therefore, at least in theory, arbitrarily complex systems may be modeled with adaptive automata. The present work briefly introduces such formal tool and presents case studies showing how to use them in two very different situations: the first one, in the name management module of a multi-paradigmatic and multi-language programming environment, and the second one, in an application program implementing an adaptive automaton that accepts a context-sensitive language.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Kinetics of cellular component in inflammatory response induced by different stimuli in the swim bladder of pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus Holmberg 1887 (Characidae)

The present study assessed the kinetics of cell accumulation at the site of inflammation induced by thioglycolate, Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and heat-inactivated Aeromonas hydrophila, in the pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus (Characidae), swim bladder. A quantitative, as well as qualitative, assessment was done of all the cells present in the exudate at 6, 24, and 48 h (n = 8) after inoculation of inflammatory agents. The results show that the thioglycolate was the irritant to induce higher total inflammatory cell accumulation when compared to the control group, 6 h after insult (P < 0.05). Inoculation of heat-inactivated Aeromonas hydrophila induced progressive accumulation of total inflammatory cells, with cell number peaking after 24 h and being significantly higher than observed in the other groups (P < 0.05). Injection of LPS also induced greater cell accumulation when compared to the control group (P < 0.05), although in lower numbers than those induced by the other two irritants. All irritants injected induced significantly greater accumulation of lymphocytes and thrombocytes when compared to the control group (P < 0.05).

Humoral and cellular immune response generated by different vaccine programs before and after Salmonella Enteritidis challenge in chickens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cellular and molecular characterization of an embryonic cell line (BME26) from the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus

The cellular and molecular characteristics of a cell line (BME26) derived from embryos of the cattle tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus were studied. The cells contained glycogen inclusions, numerous mitochondria, and vesicles with heterogeneous electron densities dispersed throughout the cytoplasm. Vesicles contained lipids and sequestered palladium meso-porphyrin (Pd-mP) and rhodamine-hemoglobin, suggesting their involvement in the autophagic and endocytic pathways. The cells phagocytosed yeast and expressed genes encoding the antimicrobial peptides (microplusin and defensin). A cDNA library was made and 898 unique mRNA sequences were obtained. Among them, 556 sequences were not significantly similar to any sequence found in public databases. Annotation using Gene Ontology revealed transcripts related to several different functional classes. We identified transcripts involved in immune response such as ferritin, serine proteases, protease inhibitors,. antimicrobial peptides, heat shock protein, glutathione S-transferase, peroxidase, and NADPH oxidase. BME26 cells transfected with a plasmid carrying a red fluorescent protein reporter gene (DsRed2) transiently expressed DsRed2 for up to 5 weeks. We conclude that BME26 can be used to experimentally analyze diverse biological processes that occur in R. (B.) microplus such as the innate immune response to tick-borne pathogens. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Beam Search Method to Solve the Problem of Assignment Cells to Switches in a Cellular Mobile Network

Assigning cells to switches in a cellular mobile network is known as an NP-hard optimization problem. This means that the alternative for the solution of this type of problem is the use of heuristic methods, because they allow the discovery of a good solution in a very satisfactory computational time. This paper proposes a Beam Search method to solve the problem of assignment cell in cellular mobile networks. Some modifications in this algorithm are also presented, which allows its parallel application. Computational results obtained from several tests confirm the effectiveness of this approach and provide good solutions for large scale problems.

ALGORITHM FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS of DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

Lymphocyte transformation assay for C neoformans antigen is not reliable for detecting cellular impairment in patients with Neurocryptococcosis

Background: Cryptococcus neoformans causes meningitis and disseminated infection in healthy individuals, but more commonly in hosts with defective immune responses. Cell-mediated immunity is an important component of the immune response to a great variety of infections, including yeast infections. We aimed to evaluate a specific lymphocyte transformation assay to Cryptococcus neoformans in order to identify immunodeficiency associated to neurocryptococcosis (NCC) as primary cause of the mycosis.Methods: Healthy volunteers, poultry growers, and HIV-seronegative patients with neurocryptococcosis were tested for cellular immune response. Cryptococcal meningitis was diagnosed by India ink staining of cerebrospinal fluid and cryptococcal antigen test (Immunomycol-Inc, SP, Brazil). Isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells were stimulated with C. neoformans antigen, C. albicans antigen, and pokeweed mitogen. The amount of H-3-thymidine incorporated was assessed, and the results were expressed as stimulation index (SI) and log SI, sensitivity, specificity, and cut-off value (receiver operating characteristics curve). We applied unpaired Student t tests to compare data and considered significant differences for p<0.05.Results: The lymphotoxin alpha showed a low capacity with all the stimuli for classifying patients as responders and non-responders. Lymphotoxin alpha stimulated by heated-killed antigen from patients with neurocryptococcosis was not affected by TCD4+ cell count, and the intensity of response did not correlate with the clinical evolution of neurocryptococcosis.Conclusion: Response to lymphocyte transformation assay should be analyzed based on a normal range and using more than one stimulator. The use of a cut-off value to classify patients with neurocryptococcosis is inadequate. Statistical analysis should be based on the log transformation of SI. A more purified antigen for evaluating specific response to C. neoformans is needed.

Pancreas transplantation prevents cellular oxidative stress in kidneys of alloxan-induced diabetic rats

Purpose. Oxidative stress is one of the most important mechanisms to explain genesis of the complications in the chronic progression of diabetes. In this investigation we studied the effects of pancreas transplantation (PT) on the imbalance caused by excessive production of free oxygen radicals by antioxidant defenses of rats with serious chronic hyperglycemia induced by alloxan.Methods. Ninety inbred male Lewis rats were randomly distributed into three groups: NC-30 nondiabetic controls; DC-30 diabetic controls without any treatment; PT-30 diabetic rats undergoing syngeneic PT from normal donor Lewis rats. Each experimental group was then split into three subgroups of 10 animals for sacrifice after 1, 3, or 6 months. Clinical and laboratory parameters from all rats as well as lipid hydroperoxide (LPO) concentrations and renal tissue enzyme activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) were recorded for all rats.Results. Successful PT corrected clinical and laboratory alterations in diabetic rats with sustained normoglycemia throughout the study. A significant increase in LPO concentration and a marked reduction in SOD and CAT enzyme activity were observed in DC rats; there was no significant variation in renal tissue GSH-Px in this group. However, alterations in DC rats were completely restored from 1st month after PT; all evaluated enzyme levels did not significantly differ (P < .01) from those in NC controls.Conclusion. Successful PT controlled cellular oxidative stress in diabetic kidneys, which may prevent chronic lesions.

Folic acid supplementation during early hepatocarcinogenesis: cellular and molecular effects

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Experimental infection of Leishmania chagasi in immunosuppressed balb/c mice: cellular immune response and parasite burden

The immune response to leishmaniasis can result in a polarization of a subpopulation of T lymphocytes, which leads to a different cell phenotype and results in immune protection or exacerbation of the disease. Leishmanias persist in the body both in asymptomatic infections and after treatment, representing risks in terms of immunosuppression. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of infection and immunosuppression by dexamethasone associated with pentoxifylline on animal weight, spleen weight, the parasitic load in the spleen and liver, as well as the production of IFN-gamma and IL-10 in spleen cell culture of Balb/c mice infected with Leishmania chagasi. The infection did not alter animal weight gain, but spleen weight and size increased. The immunosuppression, induced by dexamethasone associated with pentoxifylline, affected animal weight gain and weight and size of the spleen (in infected and not infected animals). The immunosuppression did not significantly alter the course of the parasite burden in the spleen and liver. Dexamethasone and pentoxifylline affected the studied cytokine production, but not influenced on Th1/Th2 response in infected animals.