Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.

The effects of positive end-expiratory pressure on respiratory system mechanics and hemodynamics in postoperative cardiac surgery patients

We prospectively evaluated the effects of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) on the respiratory mechanical properties and hemodynamics of 10 postoperative adult cardiac patients undergoing mechanical ventilation while still anesthetized and paralyzed. The respiratory mechanics was evaluated by the inflation inspiratory occlusion method and hemodynamics by conventional methods. Each patient was randomized to a different level of PEEP (5, 10 and 15 cmH2O), while zero end-expiratory pressure (ZEEP) was established as control. PEEP of 15-min duration was applied at 20-min intervals. The frequency dependence of resistance and the viscoelastic properties and elastance of the respiratory system were evaluated together with hemodynamic and respiratory indexes. We observed a significant decrease in total airway resistance (13.12 ± 0.79 cmH2O l-1 s-1 at ZEEP, 11.94 ± 0.55 cmH2O l-1 s-1 (P<0.0197) at 5 cmH2O of PEEP, 11.42 ± 0.71 cmH2O l-1 s-1 (P<0.0255) at 10 cmH2O of PEEP, and 10.32 ± 0.57 cmH2O l-1 s-1 (P<0.0002) at 15 cmH2O of PEEP). The elastance (Ers; cmH2O/l) was not significantly modified by PEEP from zero (23.49 ± 1.21) to 5 cmH2O (21.89 ± 0.70). However, a significant decrease (P<0.0003) at 10 cmH2O PEEP (18.86 ± 1.13), as well as (P<0.0001) at 15 cmH2O (18.41 ± 0.82) was observed after PEEP application. Volume dependence of viscoelastic properties showed a slight but not significant tendency to increase with PEEP. The significant decreases in cardiac index (l min-1 m-2) due to PEEP increments (3.90 ± 0.22 at ZEEP, 3.43 ± 0.17 (P<0.0260) at 5 cmH2O of PEEP, 3.31 ± 0.22 (P<0.0260) at 10 cmH2O of PEEP, and 3.10 ± 0.22 (P<0.0113) at 15 cmH2O of PEEP) were compensated for by an increase in arterial oxygen content owing to shunt fraction reduction (%) from 22.26 ± 2.28 at ZEEP to 11.66 ± 1.24 at PEEP of 15 cmH2O (P<0.0007). We conclude that increments in PEEP resulted in a reduction of both airway resistance and respiratory elastance. These results could reflect improvement in respiratory mechanics. However, due to possible hemodynamic instability, PEEP should be carefully applied to postoperative cardiac patients.

Effect of inhibition of nitric oxide synthase on blood pressure and renal sodium handling in renal denervated rats

The role of sympathetic nerve activity in the changes in arterial blood pressure and renal function caused by the chronic administration of NG-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME), an inhibitor of nitric oxide (NO) synthesis, was examined in sham and bilaterally renal denervated rats. Several studies have demonstrated that sympathetic nerve activity is elevated acutely after L-NAME administration. To evaluate the role of renal nerve activity in L-NAME-induced hypertension, we compared the blood pressure response in four groups (N = 10 each) of male Wistar-Hannover rats weighing 200 to 250 g: 1) sham-operated vehicle-treated, 2) sham-operated L-NAME-treated, 3) denervated vehicle-treated, and 4) denervated L-NAME-treated rats. After renal denervation or sham surgery, one control week was followed by three weeks of oral administration of L-NAME by gavage. Arterial pressure was measured weekly in conscious rats by a tail-cuff method and renal function tests were performed in individual metabolic cages 0, 7, 14 and 21 days after the beginning of L-NAME administration. L-NAME (60 mg kg-1 day-1) progressively increased arterial pressure from 108 ± 6.0 to 149 ± 12 mmHg (P<0.05) in the sham-operated group by the third week of treatment which was accompanied by a fall in creatinine clearance from 336 ± 18 to 222 ± 59 µl min-1 100 g body weight-1 (P<0.05) and a rise in fractional urinary sodium excretion from 0.2 ± 0.04 to 1.62 ± 0.35% (P<0.05) and in sodium post-proximal fractional excretion from 0.54 ± 0.09 to 4.7 ± 0.86% (P<0.05). The development of hypertension was significantly delayed and attenuated in denervated L-NAME-treated rats. This was accompanied by a striking additional increase in fractional renal sodium and potassium excretion from 0.2 ± 0.04 to 4.5 ± 1.6% and from 0.1 ± 0.015 to 1.21 ± 0.37%, respectively, and an enhanced post-proximal sodium excretion compared to the sham-operated group. These differences occurred despite an unchanged creatinine clearance and Na+ filtered load. These results suggest that bilateral renal denervation delayed and attenuated the L-NAME-induced hypertension by promoting an additional decrease in tubule sodium reabsorption in the post-proximal segments of nephrons. Much of the hypertension caused by chronic NO synthesis inhibition is thus dependent on renal nerve activity.

Pulsed electric field assisted sol-gel preparation of TiO2 particles and their photocatalytic properties

The objective of this thesis was to study the effect of pulsed electric field on the preparation of TiO2 nanoparticles via sol-gel method. The literature part deals with properties of different TiO2 crystal forms, principles of photocatalysis, sol-gel method and pulsed electric field processing. It was expected that the pulsed electric field would have an influence on crystallite size, specific surface area, polymorphism and photocatalytic activity of produced particles. TiO2 samples were prepared by using different frequencies and treatment times of pulsed electric field. The properties of produced TiO2 particles were examined X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman spectroscopy and BET surface area analysis. The photocatalytic activities of produced TiO2 particles were determined by using them as photocatalysts for the degradation of formic acid under UVA-light. The photocatalytic activities of samples produced with sol-gel method were also compared with the commercial TiO2 powder Aeroxide® (Evonic Degussa GmbH). Pulsed electric field did not have an effect on the morphology of particles. Results from XRD and Raman analysis showed that all produced TiO2 samples were pure anatase. However, pulsed electric field did have an effect on crystallite size, specific surface area and photocatalytic activity of TiO2 particles. Generally, the crystallite sizes were smaller, specific surface areas larger and initial formic acid degradation rates higher for samples that were produced by applying the pulsed electric field. The higher photocatalytic activities were attributed to larger surface areas and smaller crystallite sizes. Though, with all of the TiO2 samples produced by the sol-gel method the initial formic acid degradation rates were significantly slower than with the commercial TiO2 powder.

Isolation of bovine plasma albumin by liquid chromatography and its polymerization for use in immunohematology

The aim of the method described here is to remove hemoglobin, the major contaminant in the bovine plasma obtained from slaughterhouses, by adding a mixture of 19% cold ethanol and 0.6% chloroform, followed by fibrinogen and globulin precipitation by the Cohn method and nonspecific hemagglutinin by thermocoagulation. The experimental volume of bovine plasma was 2,000 ml per batch. Final purification was performed by liquid chromatography using the ion-exchange gel DEAE-Sepharose FF. The bovine albumin thus obtained presented > or = 99% purity, a yield of 25.0 ± 1.2 g/l plasma and >71.5% recovery. N-acetyl-DL-tryptophan (0.04 mmol/g protein) and sodium caprylate (0.04 mmol/g protein) were used as stabilizers and the final concentration of albumin was adjusted to 22.0% (w/v), pH 7.2 to 7.3. Viral inactivation was performed by pasteurization for 10 h at 60°C. The bovine albumin for the hemagglutination tests used in immunohematology was submitted to chemical treatment with 0.06% (w/v) glutaraldehyde and 0.1% (w/v) formaldehyde at 37°C for 12 h to obtain polymerization. A change in molecular distribution was observed after this treatment, with average contents of 56.0% monomers, 23.6% dimers, 12.2% trimers and 8.2% polymers. The tests performed demonstrated that this polymerized albumin enhances the agglutination of Rho(D)-positive red cells by anti-Rho(D) serum, permitting and improving visualization of the results.

Determination of serum aluminum, platelet aggregation and lipid peroxidation in hemodialyzed patients

Aluminum (Al3+) overload is frequently associated with lipid peroxidation and neurological disorders. Aluminum accumulation is also reported to be related to renal impairment, anemia and other clinical complications in hemodialysis patients. The aim of the present study was to determine the degree of lipid peroxidation, platelet aggregation and serum aluminum in patients receiving regular hemodialytic treatment. The level of plasma lipid peroxidation was evaluated on the basis of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS). Mean platelet peroxidation in patients undergoing hemodialysis was significantly higher than in normal controls (2.7 ± 0.03 vs 1.8 ± 0.06 nmol/l, P<0.05). Platelet aggregation and serum aluminum levels were determined by a turbidimetric method and atomic absorption spectrophotometry, respectively. Serum aluminum was significantly higher in patients than in normal controls (44.5 ± 29 vs 10.8 ± 2.5 µg/l, P<0.05). Human blood platelets were stimulated with collagen (2.2 µg/ml), adenosine diphosphate (6 µM) and epinephrine (6 µM) and showed reduced function with the three agonists utilized. No correlation between aluminum levels and platelet aggregation or between aluminum and peroxidation was observed in hemodialyzed patients.

Esophageal striated muscle contractions in patients with Chagas' disease and idiopathic achalasia

Chagas' disease causes degeneration and reduction of the number of intrinsic neurons of the esophageal myenteric plexus, with consequent absent or partial lower esophageal sphincter relaxation and loss of peristalsis in the esophageal body. The impairment of esophageal motility is seen mainly in the distal smooth muscle region. There is no study about esophageal striated muscle contractions in the disease. In 81 patients with heartburn (44 with esophagitis) taken as controls, 51 patients with Chagas' disease (21 with esophageal dilatation) and 18 patients with idiopathic achalasia (11 with esophageal dilatation) we studied the amplitude, duration and area under the curve of esophageal proximal contractions. Using the manometric method and a continuous perfusion system we measured the esophageal striated muscle contractions 2 to 3 cm below the upper esophageal sphincter after swallows of a 5-ml bolus of water. There was no significant difference in striated muscle contractions between patients with heartburn and esophagitis and patients with heartburn without esophagitis. There was also no significant difference between patients with heartburn younger or older than 50 years or between men and women or in esophageal striated muscle contractions between patients with heartburn and Chagas' disease. The esophageal proximal amplitude of contractions was lower in patients with idiopathic achalasia than in patients with heartburn. In patients with Chagas' disease there was no significant difference between patients with esophageal dilatation and patients with normal esophageal diameter. Esophageal striated muscle contractions in patients with Chagas' disease have the same amplitude and duration as seen in patients with heartburn. Patients with idiopathic achalasia have a lower amplitude of contraction than patients with heartburn.

Decreased gastric tone and delayed gastric emptying precede neutrophil infiltration and mucosal lesion formation in indomethacin-induced gastric damage in rats

Gastric antral dysmotility has been implicated in the pathogenesis of indomethacin-induced gastric damage, but the relationship between gastric motor abnormalities and mucosal lesions has not been extensively studied. We investigated whether changes in gastric tone and gastric retention correlate with mucosal lesions and neutrophil migration in indomethacin-induced gastric damage in rats. Indomethacin, either 5 or 20 mg/kg (INDO-5 and INDO-20), was instilled into the stomach, and then gastric damage, neutrophil migration, gastric tone and gastric retention were assessed 1 or 3 h later. Gastric damage was calculated as the sum of the lengths of all mucosal lesions, and neutrophil migration was measured by assaying myeloperoxidase activity. Gastric tone was determined by a plethysmometric method, and gastric retention of either saline or Sustacal® was evaluated by a scintigraphic method. Gastric damage was detectable 3 h after either INDO-5 or INDO-20, but not after 1 h. Neutrophil migration was significantly higher 3 h after INDO-20 as compared with INDO-5 or control group, but not after 1 h. Values of gastric tone 1 and 3 h after either INDO-5 (1 h = 1.73 ± 0.07 ml; 3 h = 1.87 ± 0.03 ml) or INDO-20 (1 h = 1.70 ± 0.02 ml; 3 h = 1.79 ± 0.03 ml) were significantly lower than in controls (1 h = 1.48 ± 0.05 ml; 3 h = 1.60 ± 0.06 ml). Gastric retention of saline was higher 1 h after INDO-5 (58.9 ± 3.3%) or INDO-20 (56.1 ± 3.1%) compared to control (45.5 ± 1.7%), but not after 3 h. There were no differences concerning gastric retention of Sustacal® between the various groups. Indomethacin induced decreased gastric tone and delayed gastric emptying, which precede mucosal lesion and neutrophil infiltration. These results indicate that there is no relationship between these gastric motor abnormalities and mucosal lesion in indomethacin-induced gastropathy.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Differences in pressure and temperature transitions of proteins and polymer gels

Pressure-driven and temperature-driven transitions of two thermoresponsive polymers, poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (pNIPAM) and poly(N-vinylisobutyramide) (pNVIBA)), in both a soluble linear polymer form and a cross-linked hydro-gel form, were examined by a dynamic light-scattering method and direct microscopic observation, respectively. Their behavior was compared with that of protein systems. Changes in some characteristic parameters in the time-intensity correlation functions of dynamic light-scattering measurement of aqueous solutions of pNIPAM at various pressures and temperatures showed no essential differences during temperature and pressure scanning and, as a whole, the motions of polymers in aqueous solutions were similar in two types of transitions until chain shrinkage occurred. The gels (cross-linked polymer gels) prepared from the thermoresponsive polymers also showed similar volume transitions responding to the pressure and temperature increase. In temperature transitions, however, gels showed drastic volume shrinkage with loss of transparency, while pressure-induced transition showed a slow recovery of transparency while keeping the size, after first transient drastic volume shrinkage with loss of transparency. At a temperature slightly higher than the transition under atmospheric temperature, so-called reentry of the volume change and recovery of the transparency were observed during the pressure-increasing process, which implies much smaller aggregation or non-aggregated collapsed polymer chains in the gel at higher pressures, indicating a certain mechanistic difference of the dehydration processes induced by temperature and pressure.

Curcumin induces human HT-29 colon adenocarcinoma cell apoptosis by activating p53 and regulating apoptosis-related protein expression

Curcumin, a major yellow pigment and active component of turmeric, has multiple anti-cancer properties. However, its molecular targets and mechanisms of action on human colon adenocarcinoma cells are unknown. In the present study, we examined the effects of curcumin on the proliferation of human colon adenocarcinoma HT-29 cells by the 3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide method and confirmed the curcumin-induced apoptosis by morphology and DNA ladder formation. At the same time, p53, phospho-p53 (Ser15), and other apoptosis-related proteins such as Bax, Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, pro-caspase-3, and pro-caspase-9 were determined by Western blot analysis. The colon adenocarcinoma cells were treated with curcumin (0-75 µM) for 0-24 h. We observed that p53 was highly expressed in HT-29 cells and curcumin could up-regulate the serine phosphorylation of p53 in a time- and concentration-dependent manner. An increase in expression of the pro-apoptotic factor Bax and a decrease in expression of the anti-apoptotic factor Bcl-2 were also observed in a time-dependent manner after exposure of 50 µM curcumin, while the expression of the anti-apoptotic factor Bcl-xL was unchanged. Curcumin could also down-regulate the expression of pro-caspase-3 and pro-caspase-9 in a time-dependent manner. These data suggest a possible underlying molecular mechanism whereby curcumin could induce the apoptosis signaling pathway in human HT-29 colon adenocarcinoma cells by p53 activation and by the regulation of apoptosis-related proteins. This property of curcumin suggests that it could have a possible therapeutic potential in colon adenocarcinoma patients.

Translational models of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction and heart failure. Development, validation and in vivo imaging studies using positron emission tomography

Coronary artery disease is an atherosclerotic disease, which leads to narrowing of coronary arteries, deteriorated myocardial blood flow and myocardial ischaemia. In acute myocardial infarction, a prolonged period of myocardial ischaemia leads to myocardial necrosis. Necrotic myocardium is replaced with scar tissue. Myocardial infarction results in various changes in cardiac structure and function over time that results in “adverse remodelling”. This remodelling may result in a progressive worsening of cardiac function and development of chronic heart failure. In this thesis, we developed and validated three different large animal models of coronary artery disease, myocardial ischaemia and infarction for translational studies. In the first study the coronary artery disease model had both induced diabetes and hypercholesterolemia. In the second study myocardial ischaemia and infarction were caused by a surgical method and in the third study by catheterisation. For model characterisation, we used non-invasive positron emission tomography (PET) methods for measurement of myocardial perfusion, oxidative metabolism and glucose utilisation. Additionally, cardiac function was measured by echocardiography and computed tomography. To study the metabolic changes that occur during atherosclerosis, a hypercholesterolemic and diabetic model was used with [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose ([18F]FDG) PET-imaging technology. Coronary occlusion models were used to evaluate metabolic and structural changes in the heart and the cardioprotective effects of levosimendan during post-infarction cardiac remodelling. Large animal models were used in testing of novel radiopharmaceuticals for myocardial perfusion imaging. In the coronary artery disease model, we observed atherosclerotic lesions that were associated with focally increased [18F]FDG uptake. In heart failure models, chronic myocardial infarction led to the worsening of systolic function, cardiac remodelling and decreased efficiency of cardiac pumping function. Levosimendan therapy reduced post-infarction myocardial infarct size and improved cardiac function. The novel 68Ga-labeled radiopharmaceuticals tested in this study were not successful for the determination of myocardial blood flow. In conclusion, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia lead to the development of early phase atherosclerotic lesions. Coronary artery occlusion produced considerable myocardial ischaemia and later infarction following myocardial remodelling. The experimental models evaluated in these studies will enable further studies concerning disease mechanisms, new radiopharmaceuticals and interventions in coronary artery disease and heart failure.

Competence foresight: linking the identification of HR competences and competence management alignment with business strategy

The objective of this study was to increase understanding of the link between the identification of required HR competences and competence management alignment with business strategy in a Finnish, global company employing over 8,000 people and about 100 HR professionals. This aim was approached by analyzing the data collected in focus group interviews using a grounded theory method and in parallel reviewing the literature of strategic human resource management, competence-based strategic management, strategy and foresight. The literature on competence management in different contexts dismisses in-depth discussions on the foresight process and individuals are often forgotten in strategic frameworks. However, corporate foresight helps in the detection of emerging opportunities for innovations and in the implementation of strategy. The empirical findings indicate a lack of strategic leadership and an alignment with HR and business. Accordingly, the most important HR competence areas identified were the need for increasing business understanding and enabling change. As a result, the study provided a holistic model for competence foresight, which introduces HR professionals as strategic change agents in the role of organizational futurists at the heart of the company: facilitating competence foresight and competence development on individual as well as organizational levels, resulting in an agile organization with increased business understanding, sensitive sensors and adaptive actions to enable change.

Comparison of anaerobic threshold determined by visual and mathematical methods in healthy women

Several methods are used to estimate anaerobic threshold (AT) during exercise. The aim of the present study was to compare AT obtained by a graphic visual method for the estimate of ventilatory and metabolic variables (gold standard), to a bi-segmental linear regression mathematical model of Hinkley's algorithm applied to heart rate (HR) and carbon dioxide output (VCO2) data. Thirteen young (24 ± 2.63 years old) and 16 postmenopausal (57 ± 4.79 years old) healthy and sedentary women were submitted to a continuous ergospirometric incremental test on an electromagnetic braking cycloergometer with 10 to 20 W/min increases until physical exhaustion. The ventilatory variables were recorded breath-to-breath and HR was obtained beat-to-beat over real time. Data were analyzed by the nonparametric Friedman test and Spearman correlation test with the level of significance set at 5%. Power output (W), HR (bpm), oxygen uptake (VO2; mL kg-1 min-1), VO2 (mL/min), VCO2 (mL/min), and minute ventilation (VE; L/min) data observed at the AT level were similar for both methods and groups studied (P > 0.05). The VO2 (mL kg-1 min-1) data showed significant correlation (P < 0.05) between the gold standard method and the mathematical model when applied to HR (r s = 0.75) and VCO2 (r s = 0.78) data for the subjects as a whole (N = 29). The proposed mathematical method for the detection of changes in response patterns of VCO2 and HR was adequate and promising for AT detection in young and middle-aged women, representing a semi-automatic, non-invasive and objective AT measurement.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.