Robustness of mathematical models for biological systems

The robustness of mathematical models for biological systems is studied by sensitivity analysis and stochastic simulations. Using a neural network model with three genes as the test problem, we study robustness properties of synthesis and degradation processes. For single parameter robustness, sensitivity analysis techniques are applied for studying parameter variations and stochastic simulations are used for investigating the impact of external noise. Results of sensitivity analysis are consistent with those obtained by stochastic simulations. Stochastic models with external noise can be used for studying the robustness not only to external noise but also to parameter variations. For external noise we also use stochastic models to study the robustness of the function of each gene and that of the system.

Comportamento sotto sisma di strutture rigide o deformabili: due casi di studio estremi

In Italia molti edifici sono stati costruiti senza tenere in considerazione l'azione sismica. La necessità di adeguare tali edifici in accordo con la normativa italiana vigente è stato il motivo scatenante di questa ricerca. Per l'adeguamento sismico, vengono qui proposti differenti approcci in base al tipo di struttura e, in particolare, in base alla loro deformabilità. Per le strutture flessibili come le scaffalature di acciaio adibite alla stagionatura del Parmigiano Reggiano, sono stati utilizzati dispositivi passivi di dissipazione energetica. Sono state condotte analisi di sensitività per determinare il coefficiente di smorzamento in grado di minimizzare lo stato tensionale nelle sezioni di interesse. I risultati delle analisi mostrano l'efficacia delle soluzioni proposte e potrebbero rappresentare un punto di partenza per la definizione di possibili contromisure standar per l'adeguamento sismico. Per le strutture rigide, come i ponti in muratura, sono stati definiti alcuni criteri per la modellazione e la verifica delle sezioni di interesse, utilizzando modelli semplificati ma dall'efficacia comprovata come termine di paragone.

COMPARAÇÃO DA UTILIZAÇÃO DAS TÉCNICAS WATSU E RELAXAMENTO AQUÁTICO EM FLUTUAÇÃO ASSISTIDA NOS SINTOMAS DE ANSIEDADE, DEPRESSÃO E PERCEPÇÃO DA DOR

Este estudo teve como objetivo comparar o efeito do método Watsu e do relaxamento aquático em flutuação assistida em piscina, no tratamento da dor crônica. Também objetiva avaliar o efeito dos sintomas de depressão e ansiedade como co-fatores nesses tratamentos. A amostra é constituída por 23 indivíduos de ambos os sexos, acima de 18 anos. No método Watsu são atendidas 13 pessoas, sendo 11 mulheres e 02 homens. Na técnica de relaxamento assistido são atendidas 10 pessoas, sendo 07 mulheres e 03 homens, entre pacientes que procuram tratamento fisioterápico no centro clínico Escola de Fisioterapia da UMESP, com dor crônica. Os dados são colhidos através de entrevista estruturada. Aplicada escala associada para avaliar percepção de dor, questionário de avaliação de sintomas de depressão Beck, de Ansiedade Idate-Estado e Ansiedade Idate-Traço. Devido ao pequeno tamanho da amostra, as comparações entre os dois tipos de tratamento (Watsu e relaxamento) e, como os resultados obtidos são equivalentes em ambos os procedimentos, optou se por apresentar os resultados apenas das análises por métodos paramétricos (teste t de média, regressão linear e análise de variância). Não são observadas diferenças significativas entre os dois grupos em relação aos escores de ansiedade e depressão antes e após a realização da pesquisa. Em relação à comparação entre os dois grupos pesquisados, quanto à percepção de dor, observou-se que tanto o método de Watsu quanto as técnicas de relaxamento mostram um efeito significativo na redução da dor. Esta pesquisa sugere que o método Watsu é tão eficaz para o controle da dor quanto o método de relaxamento, porém, o grupo de pacientes submetidos ao método Watsu é constituído por pessoas com níveis de intensidade de dor iniciais maiores do que o grupo de relaxamento. Com isso, pode-se supor que a demanda por eficácia clinica é maior para o método Watsu. Outro achado interessante é que os níveis de ansiedade ou depressão presentes nos participantes não parecem influenciar a resposta ao efeito do tratamento sobre a dor. Novos estudos do tipo duplo-cego controlados são necessários para, além de confirmar a eficácia do método, ajudar a entender quais detalhes dos procedimentos da técnica Watsu são mais eficazes para cada tipo de dor e de estado afetivo do paciente.

Using DEA and simulation in guiding operating units to improved performance

The potential for the use of DEA and simulation in a mutually supporting role in guiding operating units to improved performance is presented. An analysis following a three-stage process is suggested. Stage one involves obtaining the data for the DEA analysis. This can be sourced from historical data, simulated data or a combination of the two. Stage two involves the DEA analysis that identifies benchmark operating units. In the third stage simulation can now be used in order to offer practical guidance to operating units towards improved performance. This can be achieved by the use of sensitivity analysis of the benchmark unit using a simulation model to offer direct support as to the feasibility and efficiency of any variations in operating practices to be tested. Alternatively, the simulation can be used as a mechanism to transmit the practices of the benchmark unit to weaker performing units by building a simulation model of the weaker unit to the process design of the benchmark unit. The model can then compare performance of the current and benchmark process designs. Quantifying improvement in this way provides a useful driver to any process change initiative that is required to bring the performance of weaker units up to the best in class. © 2005 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining inventory service support levels in multi-national companies

Multi-national manufacturing companies are often faced with very difficult decisions regarding where and how to cost effectively manufacture products in a global setting. Clearly, they must utilize efficient and responsive manufacturing strategies to reach low cost solutions, but they must also consider the impact of manufacturing and transportation solutions upon their ability to support sales. One important sales consideration is determining how much work in process, in-transit stock, and finished goods to have on hand to support sales at a desired service level. This paper addresses this important consideration through a comprehensive scenario-based simulation approach, including sensitivity analysis on key study parameters. Results indicate that the inventory needs vary considerably for different manufacturing and delivery methods in ways that may not be obvious when using common evaluative tools.

What is second-order vision for? Discriminating illumination versus material changes

The human visual system is sensitive to second-order modulations of the local contrast (CM) or amplitude (AM) of a carrier signal. Second-order cues are detected independently of first-order luminance signals; however, it is not clear why vision should benet from second-order sensitivity. Analysis of the first-and second-order contents of natural images suggests that these cues tend to occur together, but their phase relationship varies. We have shown that in-phase combinations of LM and AM are perceived as a shaded corrugated surface whereas the anti-phase combination can be seen as corrugated when presented alone or as a flat material change when presented in a plaid containing the in-phase cue. We now extend these findings using new stimulus types and a novel haptic matching task. We also introduce a computational model based on initially separate first-and second-order channels that are combined within orientation and subsequently across orientation to produce a shading signal. Contrast gain control allows the LM + AM cue to suppress responses to the LM-AM when presented in a plaid. Thus, the model sees LM -AM as flat in these circumstances. We conclude that second-order vision plays a key role in disambiguating the origin of luminance changes within an image. © ARVO.

Computer simulation of liquid flow patterns on distillation trays

This thesis describes work carried out to improve the fundamental modelling of liquid flows on distillation trays. A mathematical model is presented based on the principles of computerised fluid dynamics. It models the liquid flow in the horizontal directions allowing for the effects of the vapour through the use of an increased liquid turbulence, modelled by an eddy viscosity, and a resistance to liquid flow caused by the vapour being accelerated horizontally by the liquid. The resultant equations are similar to the Navier-Stokes equations with the addition of a resistance term.A mass-transfer model is used to calculate liquid concentration profiles and tray efficiencies. A heat and mass transfer analogy is used to compare theoretical concentration profiles to experimental water-cooling data obtained from a 2.44 metre diameter air-water distillation simulation rig. The ratios of air to water flow rates are varied in order to simulate three pressures: vacuum, atmospheric pressure and moderate pressure.For simulated atmospheric and moderate pressure distillation, the fluid mechanical model constantly over-predicts tray efficiencies with an accuracy of between +1.7% and +11.3%. This compares to -1.8% to -10.9% for the stagnant regions model (Porter et al. 1972) and +12.8% to +34.7% for the plug flow plus back-mixing model (Gerster et al. 1958). The model fails to predict the flow patterns and tray efficiencies for vacuum simulation due to the change in the mechanism of liquid transport, from a liquid continuous layer to a spray as the liquid flow-rate is reduced. This spray is not taken into account in the development of the fluid mechanical model. A sensitivity analysis carried out has shown that the fluid mechanical model is relatively insensitive to the prediction of the average height of clear liquid, and a reduction in the resistance term results in a slight loss of tray efficiency. But these effects are not great. The model is quite sensitive to the prediction of the eddy viscosity term. Variations can produce up to a 15% decrease in tray efficiency. The fluid mechanical model has been incorporated into a column model so that statistical optimisation techniques can be employed to fit a theoretical column concentration profile to experimental data. Through the use of this work mass-transfer data can be obtained.

The design, evaluation and costing of biomass gasifiers

The objective of this study has been to enable a greater understanding of the biomass gasification process through the development and use of process and economic models. A new theoretical equilibrium model of gasification is described using the operating condition called the adiabatic carbon boundary. This represents an ideal gasifier working at the point where the carbon in the feedstock is completely gasified. The model can be used as a `target' against which the results of real gasifiers can be compared, but it does not simulate the results of real gasifiers. A second model has been developed which uses a stagewise approach in order to model fluid bed gasification, and its results have indicated that pyrolysis and the reactions of pyrolysis products play an important part in fluid bed gasifiers. Both models have been used in sensitivity analyses: the biomass moisture content and gasifying agent composition were found to have the largest effects on performance, whilst pressure and heat loss had lesser effects. Correlations have been produced to estimate the total installed capital cost of gasification systems and have been used in an economic model of gasification. This has been used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors which most affect the profitability of gasification. The most important influences on gasifier profitability have been found to be feedstock cost, product selling price and throughput. Given the economic conditions of late 1985, refuse gasification for the production of producer gas was found to be viable at throughputs of about 2.5 tonnes/h dry basis and above, in the metropolitan counties of the United Kingdom. At this throughput and above, the largest element of product gas cost is the feedstock cost, the cost element which is most variable.

Economic and socio-economic evaluation of bioenergy schemes fueled with energy crops in Greece

The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate the economic and socio-economic viability of energy crops as raw material for bioenergy schemes at the local level. The case examined is Greece, a southern Mediterranean country. Based on the current state, on foreseen trends and on the information presented in the literature review (conducted at the beginning of the study), the main goal was defined as follows: To examine the evidence supporting a strong role for dedicated energy crops local bioenergy developments in Greece, a sector that is forecasted to be increasingly important in the short to medium term.' Two perennial energy crops, cardoon (Cynara cardunculus L.) and giant reed (Arundo donax L.) were evaluated. The thesis analysed their possible introduction in the agricultural system of Rhodope, northern Greece, as alternative land use, through comparative financial appraisal with the main conventional crops. Based on the output of this comparative analysis, the breakeven for the two selected energy crops was defined along with a sensitivity analysis for the risk of the potential implementation. Following, the author performed an economic and socio-economic evaluation of a district heating system fuelled with energy crops in the selected region. Finally, the author, acknowledging that bioenergy deployment should be studied in the context of innovations proceeded in examining the different perceptions of the key groups involved, farmers and potential end users. Results indicated that biomass exploitation for energy purposes is more likely to be accepted when it is seen clearly as one strand in a national energy, environmental and agricultural policy which embraces several sources of renewable energy, and which also encourages energy efficiency and conservation.

System identification of linear vibrating structures

Methods of dynamic modelling and analysis of structures, for example the finite element method, are well developed. However, it is generally agreed that accurate modelling of complex structures is difficult and for critical applications it is necessary to validate or update the theoretical models using data measured from actual structures. The techniques of identifying the parameters of linear dynamic models using Vibration test data have attracted considerable interest recently. However, no method has received a general acceptance due to a number of difficulties. These difficulties are mainly due to (i) Incomplete number of Vibration modes that can be excited and measured, (ii) Incomplete number of coordinates that can be measured, (iii) Inaccuracy in the experimental data (iv) Inaccuracy in the model structure. This thesis reports on a new approach to update the parameters of a finite element model as well as a lumped parameter model with a diagonal mass matrix. The structure and its theoretical model are equally perturbed by adding mass or stiffness and the incomplete number of eigen-data is measured. The parameters are then identified by an iterative updating of the initial estimates, by sensitivity analysis, using eigenvalues or both eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the structure before and after perturbation. It is shown that with a suitable choice of the perturbing coordinates exact parameters can be identified if the data and the model structure are exact. The theoretical basis of the technique is presented. To cope with measurement errors and possible inaccuracies in the model structure, a well known Bayesian approach is used to minimize the least squares difference between the updated and the initial parameters. The eigen-data of the structure with added mass or stiffness is also determined using the frequency response data of the unmodified structure by a structural modification technique. Thus, mass or stiffness do not have to be added physically. The mass-stiffness addition technique is demonstrated by simulation examples and Laboratory experiments on beams and an H-frame.

Which is the best solar thermal collection technology for electricity generation in north-west India? Evaluation of options using the analytical hierarchy process

This study of concentrating solar thermal power generation sets out to evaluate the main existing collection technologies using the framework of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It encompasses parabolic troughs, heliostat fields, linear Fresnel reflectors, parabolic dishes, compound parabolic concentrators and linear Fresnel lenses. These technologies are compared based on technical, economic and environmental criteria. Within these three categories, numerous sub-criteria are identified; similarly sub-alternatives are considered for each technology. A literature review, thermodynamic calculations and an expert workshop have been used to arrive at quantitative and qualitative assessments. The methodology is applied principally to a case study in Gujarat in north-west India, though case studies based on the Sahara Desert, Southern Spain and California are included for comparison. A sensitivity analysis is carried out for Gujarat. The study concludes that the linear Fresnel lens with a secondary compound parabolic collector, or the parabolic dish reflector, is the preferred technology for north-west India.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Absorptive capacity and the benefits from global reservoirs of knowledge:evidence from a linked China-OECD dataset

This paper investigates the role of absorptive capacity in the diffusion of global technology with sector and firm heterogeneity. We construct the FDI-intensity weighted global R&D stock for each industry and link it to Chinese firm-level panel data relating to 53,981 firms over the period 2001-2005. Non-parametric frontier analysis is employed to explore how absorptive capacity affects technical change and catch-up in the presence of global knowledge spillovers. We find that R&D activities and training at individual firms serve as an effective source of absorptive capability. The contribution of absorptive capacity varies according to the type of FDI and the extent of openness.

Vertical and horizontal scope economies in the regulated US electricity power industry

This paper investigates vertical economies between generation and distribution of electric power, and horizontal economies between different types of power generation in the U.S. electric utility industry. Our quadratic cost function model includes three generation output measures (hydro, nuclear and fossil fuels), which allows us to analyze the effect that generation mix has on vertical economies. Our results provide (sample mean) estimates of vertical economies of 8.1% and horizontal economies of 5.4%. An extensive sensitivity analysis is used to show how the scope measures vary across alternative model specifications and firm types. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Editorial Board of The Journal of Industrial Economics.

A fuzzy levelised energy cost method for renewable energy technology assessment

Renewable energy project development is highly complex and success is by no means guaranteed. Decisions are often made with approximate or uncertain information yet the current methods employed by decision-makers do not necessarily accommodate this. Levelised energy costs (LEC) are one such commonly applied measure utilised within the energy industry to assess the viability of potential projects and inform policy. The research proposes a method for achieving this by enhancing the traditional discounting LEC measure with fuzzy set theory. Furthermore, the research develops the fuzzy LEC (F-LEC) methodology to incorporate the cost of financing a project from debt and equity sources. Applied to an example bioenergy project, the research demonstrates the benefit of incorporating fuzziness for project viability, optimal capital structure and key variable sensitivity analysis decision-making. The proposed method contributes by incorporating uncertain and approximate information to the widely utilised LEC measure and by being applicable to a wide range of energy project viability decisions. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.