On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R-0 is usually defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infective individual introduced into a completely susceptible population. According to this definition. R-0 is related to the initial stage of the spreading of a contagious disease. However, from epidemiological models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE), R-0 is commonly derived from a linear stability analysis and interpreted as a bifurcation parameter: typically, when R-0 >1, the contagious disease tends to persist in the population because the endemic stationary solution is asymptotically stable: when R-0 <1, the corresponding pathogen tends to naturally disappear because the disease-free stationary solution is asymptotically stable. Here we intend to answer the following question: Do these two different approaches for calculating R-0 give the same numerical values? In other words, is the number of secondary infections caused by a unique sick individual equal to the threshold obtained from stability analysis of steady states of ODE? For finding the answer, we use a susceptibleinfective-recovered (SIR) model described in terms of ODE and also in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. The values of R-0 obtained from both approaches are compared, showing good agreement. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On abstract differential equations with nonlocal conditions involving the temporal derivative of the solution

In this paper we discuss the existence of solutions for a class of abstract differential equations with nonlocal conditions for which the nonlocal term involves the temporal derivative of the solution. Some concrete applications to parabolic differential equations with nonlocal conditions are considered. (C) 2012 Royal Dutch Mathematical Society (KWG). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decentralization and regionalization: dynamics and conditioning factors for the implementation of the Health Pact in Brazil

Decentralization and regionalization represent constitutional guidelines for the organization of the Unified Health System, which in the last 20 years has required the adoption of mechanisms to coordinate and accommodate federative tensions in Brazil's healthcare sector. This paper analyzes the national implementation of the Health Pact between 2006 and 2010 involving a strategy that reconfigures intergovernmental relations in the sector. The study involved the analysis of documents, official data and interviews with federal, state and municipal managers in the Brazilian states. The content of the national proposal is initially discussed, including its implications for health policy. The different rhythms and degrees of implementation of the Health Pact are then reviewed, with respect to adherence by states and municipalities and the formation of Regional Management Boards. Lastly, the conditioning factors for the multiplicity of experiences observed in the country are identified and the challenges facing progress toward a decentralized and regionalized health system in Brazil are discussed.

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS: THE TRANSITION FROM NONEQUILIBRIUM TO EQUILIBRIUM IN INTEGRATE-AND-FIRE DYNAMICS

The transient and equilibrium properties of dynamics unfolding in complex systems can depend critically on specific topological features of the underlying interconnections. In this work, we investigate such a relationship with respect to the integrate-and-fire dynamics emanating from a source node and an extended network model that allows control of the small-world feature as well as the length of the long-range connections. A systematic approach to investigate the local and global correlations between structural and dynamical features of the networks was adopted that involved extensive simulations (one and a half million cases) so as to obtain two-dimensional correlation maps. Smooth, but diverse surfaces of correlation values were obtained in all cases. Regarding the global cases, it has been verified that the onset avalanche time (but not its intensity) can be accurately predicted from the structural features within specific regions of the map (i.e. networks with specific structural properties). The analysis at local level revealed that the dynamical features before the avalanches can also be accurately predicted from structural features. This is not possible for the dynamical features after the avalanches take place. This is so because the overall topology of the network predominates over the local topology around the source at the stationary state.

Integral form of Yang-Mills equations and its gauge invariant conserved charges

Despite the fact that the integral form of the equations of classical electrodynamics is well known, the same is not true for non-Abelian gauge theories. The aim of the present paper is threefold. First, we present the integral form of the classical Yang-Mills equations in the presence of sources and then use it to solve the long-standing problem of constructing conserved charges, for any field configuration, which are invariant under general gauge transformations and not only under transformations that go to a constant at spatial infinity. The construction is based on concepts in loop spaces and on a generalization of the non-Abelian Stokes theorem for two-form connections. The third goal of the paper is to present the integral form of the self-dual Yang-Mills equations and calculate the conserved charges associated with them. The charges are explicitly evaluated for the cases of monopoles, dyons, instantons and merons, and we show that in many cases those charges must be quantized. Our results are important in the understanding of global properties of non-Abelian gauge theories.

Lumpiness, capital adjustment costs and investment dynamics

Aggregate investment in the US economy displays a hump-shaped pattern in response to shocks, and the autocorrelation of aggregate investment growth is positive for the first few quarters, turning negative for the later quarters. This paper shows that this feature of the data is the natural outcome of a two-sector consumption/investment model designed and calibrated to reproduce plant-level evidence on capita: accumulation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground-level ozone prediction using a neural network model based on meteorological variables and applied to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo

A neural network model to predict ozone concentration in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area was developed, based on average values of meteorological variables in the morning (8:00-12:00 hr) and afternoon (13:00-17: 00 hr) periods. Outputs are the maximum and average ozone concentrations in the afternoon (12:00-17:00 hr). The correlation coefficient between computed and measured values was 0.82 and 0.88 for the maximum and average ozone concentration, respectively. The model presented good performance as a prediction tool for the maximum ozone concentration. For prediction periods from 1 to 5 days 0 to 23% failures (95% confidence) were obtained.

Characterization of suramin binding sites on the human group IIA secreted phospholipase A(2) by site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics simulation

Suramin is a polysulphonated naphthylurea with inhibitory activity against the human secreted group IIA phospholipase A(2) (hsPLA2GIIA), and we have investigated suramin binding to recombinant hsPLA2GIIA using site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The changes in suramin binding affinity of 13 cationic residue mutants of the hsPLA2GIIA was strongly correlated with alterations in the inhibition of membrane damaging activity of the protein. Suramin binding to hsPLA2GIIA was also studied by MD simulations, which demonstrated that altered intermolecular potential energy of the suramin/mutant complexes was a reliable indicator of affinity change. Although residues in the C-terminal region play a major role in the stabilization of the hsPLA2GIIA/suramin complex, attractive and repulsive hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions with residues throughout the protein together with the adoption of a bent suramin conformation, all contribute to the stability of the complex. Analysis of the h5PLA2GIIA/suramin interactions allows the prediction of the properties of suramin analogues with improved binding and higher affinities which may be candidates for novel phospholipase A(2) inhibitors. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tiller population density and tillering dynamics in marandu palisade grass subjected to strategies of rotational stocking management and nitrogen fertilization

The objective of this experiment was to evaluate tiller population density and the dynamics of the tillering process in marandu palisade grass subjected to strategies of rotational stocking management and nitrogen fertilization. Treatments corresponded to combinations between two targets of pre-grazing conditions (sward surface height of 25 and 35 cm) and two rates of nitrogen application (50 and 200 kg ha-1 year-1), and were allocated to experimental units according to a 2 x 2 factorial arrangement in a randomised complete block design, with four replications. The following response variables were studied: initial (TPDi), intermediate (TPDm) and final (TPDf) tiller population density as well as the rates of tiller appearance (TAR) and death (TDR) and the tiller population stability index (SI). TPDi was similar to all treatments, with differences in tiller population density becoming more pronounced as the experiment progressed, resulting in larger TPDf on swards managed at 25 cm pre-grazing height. Tiller death was larger on swards managed at 35 cm, with differences in tiller appearance being recorded only from February 2010 onwards. Stability of tiller population was higher on swards managed at 25 cm pre-grazing height. Overall, there was no effect of nitrogen on the studied variables, and the most adequate grazing strategy corresponded to the pre-grazing height of 25 cm, regardless of the nitrogen application rate used.

Interactions between physical forcing, water circulation and phytoplankton dynamics in a microtidal estuary

Eliminadas las páginas en blanco

Some advances in open problems of isogeometric analysis

[EN]Isogeometric analysis (IGA) has arisen as an attempt to unify the fields of CAD and classical finite element methods. The main idea of IGA consists in using for analysis the same functions (splines) that are used in CAD representation of the geometry. The main advantage with respect to the traditional finite element method is a higher smoothness of the numerical solution and more accurate representation of the geometry. IGA seems to be a promising tool with wide range of applications in engineering. However, this relatively new technique have some open problems that require a solution. In this work we present our results and contributions to this issue…

Phylogeny and population dynamics in European Reticulitermes and Kalotermes genera (Insecta, Isoptera)

The aim of this thesis is to detect the phylogeny and the population dynamics of the European termites of the genera Reticulitermes and Kalotermes, by the use of different mitochondrial (16S, COI/tRNA/COII, CR) and nuclear (microsatellites and Inter-SINE) molecular markers. In the phylogenetic analyses, the obtained results have well defined the cladogenetic events that generated the nowadays species biodiversity of the genus Reticulitermes, while the analysis of the Kalotermes flavicollis taxon showed the presence of at least four genetic clades, defined on the basis of the geographical distance. The second part of the thesis is centred on the population dynamics of two species: Reticulitermes urbis and Kalotermes flavicollis. The first species, native of the Balkans, is known to be present in some cities of Italy and France. I’ve analyzed the colony genetic structure of the introduced population of Bagnacavallo (RA, Italy), using nine microsatellite loci. The obtained results are in accordance with those obtained from another population in France: this species in fact confirms its invasive and infestation capacities. The analysis of the natural population of K. flavicollis, performed with a combination of mitochondrial (control region) and nuclear (microsatellites and I-SINE) markers, clearly evidenced the presence of two genetic lineages that coexist in the same area. Moreover, results clearly indicate that the cross-breeding is allowed. Finally, the whole results are discussed in a comparative view to better understand the differences in ecology, evolutionary dynamics and colony social structure between these two genera.

Analysis of optimal control problems for the incompressible MHD equations and implementation in a finite element multiphysics code

This thesis deals with the study of optimal control problems for the incompressible Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations. Particular attention to these problems arises from several applications in science and engineering, such as fission nuclear reactors with liquid metal coolant and aluminum casting in metallurgy. In such applications it is of great interest to achieve the control on the fluid state variables through the action of the magnetic Lorentz force. In this thesis we investigate a class of boundary optimal control problems, in which the flow is controlled through the boundary conditions of the magnetic field. Due to their complexity, these problems present various challenges in the definition of an adequate solution approach, both from a theoretical and from a computational point of view. In this thesis we propose a new boundary control approach, based on lifting functions of the boundary conditions, which yields both theoretical and numerical advantages. With the introduction of lifting functions, boundary control problems can be formulated as extended distributed problems. We consider a systematic mathematical formulation of these problems in terms of the minimization of a cost functional constrained by the MHD equations. The existence of a solution to the flow equations and to the optimal control problem are shown. The Lagrange multiplier technique is used to derive an optimality system from which candidate solutions for the control problem can be obtained. In order to achieve the numerical solution of this system, a finite element approximation is considered for the discretization together with an appropriate gradient-type algorithm. A finite element object-oriented library has been developed to obtain a parallel and multigrid computational implementation of the optimality system based on a multiphysics approach. Numerical results of two- and three-dimensional computations show that a possible minimum for the control problem can be computed in a robust and accurate manner.