Quantifying the state of populations and effects of disturbances at large spatio-temporal scales: The case of coral populations in the great barrier reef

This project was a step forward in applying statistical methods and models to provide new insights for more informed decision-making at large spatial scales. The model has been designed to address complicated effects of ecological processes that govern the state of populations and uncertainties inherent in large spatio-temporal datasets. Specifically, the thesis contributes to better understanding and management of the Great Barrier Reef.

Carvedilol induces greater control of β2- than β1-adrenoceptor-mediated inotropic and lusitropic effects by PDE3, while PDE4 has no effect in human failing myocardium

The beta-blockers carvedilol and metoprolol provide important therapeutic strategies for heart failure treatment. Therapy with metoprolol facilitates the control by phosphodiesterase PDE3, but not PDE4, of inotropic effects of catecholamines in human failing ventricle. However, it is not known whether carvedilol has the same effect. We investigated whether the PDE3-selective inhibitor cilostamide (0.3 mu M) or PDE4-selective inhibitor rolipram (1 mu M) modified the positive inotropic and lusitropic effects of catecholamines in ventricular myocardium of heart failure patients treated with carvedilol. Right ventricular trabeculae from explanted hearts of nine carvedilol-treated patients with terminal heart failure were paced to contract at 1 Hz. The effects of (-)-noradrenaline, mediated through beta(1)-adrenoceptors (beta(2)-adrenoceptors blocked with ICI118551), and (-)-adrenaline, mediated through beta(2)-adrenoceptors (beta(1)-adrenoceptors blocked with CGP20712A), were assessed in the absence and presence of the PDE inhibitors. The inotropic potency, estimated from -logEC(50)s, was unchanged for (-)-noradrenaline but decreased 16-fold for (-)-adrenaline in carvedilol-treated compared to non-beta-blocker-treated patients, consistent with the previously reported beta(2)-adrenoceptor-selectivity of carvedilol. Cilostamide caused 2- to 3-fold and 10- to 35-fold potentiations of the inotropic and lusitropic effects of (-)-noradrenaline and (-)-adrenaline, respectively, in trabeculae from carvedilol-treated patients. Rolipram did not affect the inotropic and lusitropic potencies of (-)-noradrenaline or (-)-adrenaline. Treatment of heart failure patients with carvedilol induces PDE3 to selectively control the positive inotropic and lusitropic effects mediated through ventricular beta(2)-adrenoceptors compared to beta(1)-adrenoceptors. The beta(2)-adrenoceptor-selectivity of carvedilol may provide protection against beta(2)-adrenoceptor-mediated ventricular overstimulation in PDE3 inhibitor-treated patients. PDE4 does not control beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptor-mediated inotropic and lusitropic effects in carvedilol-treated patients.

The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam

This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

In vivo non-invasive high resolution MR-based method for the determination of the elastic modulus of arterial vessels

The mechanical properties of arterial walls have long been recognized to play an essential role in the development and progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Early detection of variations in the elastic modulus of arteries would help in monitoring patients at high cardiovascular risk stratifying them according to risk. An in vivo, non-invasive, high resolution MR-phase-contrast based method for the estimation of the time-dependent elastic modulus of healthy arteries was developed, validated in vitro by means of a thin walled silicon rubber tube integrated into an existing MR-compatible flow simulator and used on healthy volunteers. A comparison of the elastic modulus of the silicon tube measured from the MRI-based technique with direct measurements confirmed the method's capability. The repeatability of the method was assessed. Viscoelastic and inertial effects characterizing the dynamic response of arteries in vivo emerged from the comparison of the pressure waveform and the area variation curve over a period. For all the volunteers who took part in the study the elastic modulus was found to be in the range 50-250 kPa, to increase during the rising part of the cycle, and to decrease with decreasing pressure during the downstroke of systole and subsequent diastole.

Fasteners in Composite Plates - Effects of Interfacial Friction

The effects of tangential friction at pin—hole interfaces are appropriately modelled for the analysis of fasteners in large composite (orthotropic) plate loaded along its edges. The pin—hole contact could be of interference, clearance or neat fit. When the plate load is monotonically increased, interference fits give rise to receding contact, whereas clearance fits result in advancing contact. In either case, the changing contact situations lead to non-linear moving boundary value problems. The neat fit comes out as a special case in which the contact and separation regions are invariant with the applied load level and so the problem remains linear. The description of boundary conditions in the presence of tangential friction, will depend on whether the problem is one of advancing or receding contact, advancing contact presenting a special problem. A model is developed for the limiting case of a rigid pin and an ideally rough interface (infinitely large friction coefficient). The non-linearity resulting from the continuously varying proportions of contact and separation at the interface, is handled by an “Inverse Formulation” which was successfully applied earlier by the authors for smooth (zero friction) interfacial conditions. The additional difficulty introduced by advancing contact is handled by adopting a “Marching Solution”. The modelling and the procedure are illustrated in respect of symmetric plate load cases. Numerical results are presented bringing out the effects of interfacial friction and plate orthotropy on load-contact relations and plate stresses.

Short-term nutritional supplementation during management of pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibosis: A controlled study, including effects of protein turnover

Effects of nutritional supplements on minimizing weight loss and abnormalities of protein turnover during pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis (CF) were studied by controlled trial. Patients received pulmonary therapy and either standard diet (n = 10) or adjunctive enteral supplements (n = 12). Initial protein turnover, measured by [15N]glycine kinetics, showed alterations of protein synthesis (P Syn) and catabolism (P Cat), which correlated with the degree of underweight, and negligible net protein deposition (P Dep). With treatment both groups had significant increases in mean body weight and forced expiratory volume in 1 s, expressed as percent predicted value for height (FEV1) by 3 wk, but a significant correlation between initial underweight and subsequent weight gain was observed only in supplemented patients. Mean P Syn and P Dep increased significantly (p < 0.001) only in the supplemented group. Pulmonary exacerbations in CF have important adverse effects on body-protein metabolism, similar to changes in protein-energy malnutrition and infection. These effects are reversed by short-term nutritional support. Strategic nutritional intervention should thus be considered in management, especially in malnourished patients.

Quantifying the effects of bycatch reduction devices in Queensland's (Australia) shallow water eastern king prawn (Penaeus plebejus) trawl fishery

This study presents results from an experimental 10-day research charter that was designed to quantify the effects of a) a turtle excluder device (TED) and b) a radial escape section bycatch reduction device (BRD) and c) both devices together, on prawn and bycatch catch rates in the Queensland shallow water eastern king prawn (Penaeus plebejus) trawl fishery. The bycatch was comprised of 250 taxa, mainly gurnards, whiting, lizard fish, flathead, dragonets, portunid crabs, turretfish and flounders. The observed mean catch rates of bycatch and marketable eastern king prawns from the standard trawl net (i.e., net with no TED or BRD) used during the charter were 11.06 (se 0.90) kg per hectare swept by the trawl gear (ha-1) and 0.94 kg ha-1, respectively. For the range of depths sampled (20.1-90.7 m), bycatch catch rates declined significantly at a rate of 0.14 kg ha-1 for every 1 m increase in depth, while prawn catch rates were unaffected. When both the TED and radial escape section BRD were used together they resulted in a 24% reduction in total bycatch catch rate compared to a standard net, but at a 20% reduction in marketable prawn catch rate. The largest reductions were achieved for stout whiting Sillago robusta (57% reduction) and yellowtail scad Trachurus novaezelandiae (32% reduction). Multidimensional scaling and analysis of similarities revealed that bycatch assemblages differed significantly between depths and latitude, but not between the different combinations of bycatch reduction devices. Despite the lowered prawn catch rates, the reduced bycatch catch rates are promising, particularly for S. robusta which is not permitted to be retained by the prawn trawl fleet and yet experiences considerable incidental fishing mortality, and because it is targeted in a separate licensed commercial fishery.

Effects of methyl eugenol feeding on mating compatibility of Asian population of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) with African population and with B. carambolae

Males of some species included in the Bactrocera dorsalis complex are strongly attracted to methyl eugenol (ME) (1,2-dimethoxy-4-(2-propenyl) benzene), a natural compound occurring in a variety of plant species. ME feeding of males of the B. dorsalis complex is known to enhance their mating competitiveness. Within B. dorsalis, recent studies show that Asian and African populations of B. dorsalis are sexually compatible, while populations of B. dorsalis and Bactrocera carambolae are relatively incompatible. The objectives of this study were to examine whether ME feeding by males affects mating compatibility between Asian and African populations of B. dorsalis and ME feeding reduces male mating incompatibility between B. dorsalis (Asian population) and B. carambolae. The data confirmed that Asian and African populations of B. dorsalis are sexually compatible for mating and showed that ME feeding only increased the number of matings. Though ME feeding also increased the number of matings of B. dorsalis (Asian population) and B. carambolae males but the sexual incompatibility between both species was not reduced by treatment with ME. These results conform to the efforts resolving the biological species limits among B. dorsalis complex and have implications for fruit fly control programs in fields and horticultural trade.

The essential and non-essential genes of Bovine herpesvirus 1

Bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) is an economically important pathogen of cattle associated with respiratory and reproductive disease. To further develop BoHV-1 as a vaccine vector, a study was conducted to identify the essential and non-essential genes required for in vitro viability. Randominsertion mutagenesis utilizing a Tn5 transposition system and targeted gene deletion were employed to construct gene disruption and gene deletion libraries, respectively, of an infectious clone of BoHV-1. Transposon insertion position and confirmation of gene deletion were determined by direct sequencing. The essential or non-essential requirement of either transposed or deleted open reading frames (ORFs) was assessed by transfection of respective BoHV-1 DNA into host cells. Of the 73 recognized ORFs encoded by the BoHV-1 genome, 33 were determined to be essential and 36 to be non-essential for virus viability in cell culture; determining the requirement of the two dual copy ORFs was inconclusive. The majority of ORFs were shown to conform to the in vitro requirements of BoHV-1 homologues encoded by human herpesvirus 1 (HHV-1). However, ORFs encoding glycoprotein K (UL53), regulatory, membrane, tegument and capsid proteins (UL54, UL49.5, UL49, UL35, UL20, UL16 and UL7) were shown to differ in requirement when compared to HHV-1-encoded homologues.

Constitutive modeling of shape memory alloy wire with non-local rate kinetics

A constitutive modeling approach for shape memory alloy (SMA) wire by taking into account the microstructural phase inhomogeneity and the associated solid-solid phase transformation kinetics is reported in this paper. The approach is applicable to general thermomechanical loading. Characterization of various scales in the non-local rate sensitive kinetics is the main focus of this paper. Design of SMA materials and actuators not only involve an optimal exploitation of the hysteresis loops during loading-unloading, but also accounts for fatigue and training cycle identifications. For a successful design of SMA integrated actuator systems, it is essential to include the microstructural inhomogeneity effects and the loading rate dependence of the martensitic evolution, since these factors play predominant role in fatigue. In the proposed formulation, the evolution of new phase is assumed according to Weibull distribution. Fourier transformation and finite difference methods are applied to arrive at the analytical form of two important scaling parameters. The ratio of these scaling parameters is of the order of 10(6) for stress-free temperature-induced transformation and 10(4) for stress-induced transformation. These scaling parameters are used in order to study the effect of microstructural variation on the thermo-mechanical force and interface driving force. It is observed that the interface driving force is significant during the evolution. Increase in the slopes of the transformation start and end regions in the stress-strain hysteresis loop is observed for mechanical loading with higher rates.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Effects of hooking damage and hook type on post-release survival of sand flathead (Platycephalus bassensis)

This study examined post-release survival in sand flathead (Platycephalus bassensis) and whether there were survival benefits from the use of circle hooks over conventional hook patterns. Anatomical hooking location was the major factor contributing to mortality, with an almost 100% survival rate for fish hooked in the lip, mouth or eye (shallow-hooked) compared with around 64% for fish hooked in the throat or gut (deep-hooked). Mortality in deep-hooked fish was generally associated with injuries to vital organs (gills, heart, liver) and survival was significantly lower if bleeding was associated with injury (54% compared with 85% for non-bleeders). Circle hooks resulted in significantly lower deep-hooking rates (1%) compared with conventional hook types (4-9%) and, based on catch rates, were at least as effective as conventional hook patterns. Estimated survival rates for line-caught sand flathead were high, over 99% for circle hooks and between 94 and 97% for conventional hooks. These findings support the efficacy of management strategies based on size and bag limits and the practice of catch-and-release fishing for sand flathead, as well as a potential conservation benefit from the use of circle hooks.

Non-destructive prediction of 'Hass' avocado dry matter via FT-NIR spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.

Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) invasion effects on soil physicochemical properties

Lantana camara is a recognized weed of worldwide significance due to its extensive distribution and its impacts on primary industries and nature conservation. However, quantitative data on the impact of the weed on soil ecosystem properties are scanty, especially in SE Australia, despite the pervasive presence of the weed along its coastal and inland regions. Consequently, mineral soils for physicochemical analyses were collected beneath and away from L. camara infestations in four sites west of Brisbane, SE Australia. These sites (hoop pine plantation, cattle farm, and two eucalyptus forests with occasional grazing and a fire regime, respectively) vary in landscape and land-use types. Significant site effect was more frequently observed than effect due to invasion status. Nonetheless, after controlling for site differences, ~50% of the 23 soil traits examined differed significantly between infested and non-infested soils. Moisture, pH, Ca, total and organic C, and total N (but not exchangeable N in form of NO3-) were significantly elevated, while sodium, chloride, copper, iron, sulfur, and manganese, many of which can be toxic to plant growth if present in excess levels, were present at lower levels in soils supporting L. camara compared to soils lacking the weed. These results indicate that L. camara can improve soil fertility and influence nutrient cycling, making the substratum ideal for its own growth and might explain the ability of the weed to outcompete other species, especially native ones.