Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics study of an amphiphilic model system

Diese Doktorarbeit untersucht das Verhalten von komplexenFluidenunter Scherung, insbesondere den Einfluss von Scherflüssenauf dieStrukturbildung.Dazu wird ein Modell dieser entworfen, welches imRahmen von Molekulardynamiksimulationen verwendet wird.Zunächst werden Gleichgewichtseigenschaften dieses Modellsuntersucht.Hierbei wird unter anderem die Lage desOrdnungs--Unordnungsübergangs von derisotropen zur lamellaren Phase der Dimere bestimmt.Der Einfluss von Scherflüssen auf diese lamellare Phase wirdnununtersucht und mit analytischen Theorien verglichen. Die Scherung einer parallelen lamellaren Phase ruft eineNeuausrichtung des Direktors in Flussrichtung hervor.Das verursacht eine Verminderung der Schichtdicke mitsteigender Scherrateund führt oberhalb eines Schwellwertes zu Ondulationen.Ein vergleichbares Verhalten wird auch in lamellarenSystemengefunden, an denen in Richtung des Direktors gezogen wird.Allerdings wird festgestellt, dass die Art der Bifurkationenin beidenFällen unterschiedlich ist.Unter Scherung wird ein Übergang von Lamellen parallelerAusrichtung zu senkrechter gefunden.Dabei wird beoachtet, dass die Scherspannung in senkrechterOrientierungniedriger als in der parallelen ist.Dies führt unter bestimmten Bedingungen zum Auftreten vonScherbändern, was auch in Simulationen beobachtet wird. Es ist gelungen mit einem einfachen Modell viele Apsekte desVerhalten vonkomplexen Fluiden wiederzugeben. Die Strukturbildung hängt offensichtlich nurbedingt von lokalen Eigenschaften der Moleküle ab.

Use of solvents and environmental friendly materials for applications in Green Chemistry

The present Thesis studies three alternative solvent groups as sustainable replacement of traditional organic solvents. Some aspects of fluorinated solvents, supercritical fluids and ionic liquids, have been analysed with a critical approach and their effective “greenness” has been evaluated from the points of view of the synthesis, the properties and the applications. In particular, the attention has been put on the environmental and human health issues, evaluating the eco-toxicity, the toxicity and the persistence, to underline that applicability and sustainability are subjects with equal importance. The “green” features of fluorous solvents and supercritical fluids are almost well-established; in particular supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) is probably the “greenest” solvent among the alternative solvent systems developed in the last years, enabling to combine numerous advantages both from the point of view of industrial/technological applications and eco-compatibility. In the Thesis the analysis of these two classes of alternative solvents has been mainly focused on their applicability, rather than the evaluation of their environmental impact. Specifically they have been evaluated as alternative media for non-aqueous biocatalysis. For this purpose, the hydrophobic ion pairing (HIP), which allows solubilising enzymes in apolar solvents by an ion pairing between the protein and a surfactant, has been investigated as effective enzymatic derivatisation technique to improve the catalytic activity under homogeneous conditions in non conventional media. The results showed that the complex enzyme-surfactant was much more active both in fluorous solvents and in supercritical carbon dioxide than the native form of the enzyme. Ionic liquids, especially imidazolium salts, have been proposed some years ago as “fully green” alternative solvents; however this epithet does not take into account several “brown” aspects such as their synthesis from petro-chemical starting materials, their considerable eco-toxicity, toxicity and resistance to biodegradation, and the difficulty of clearly outline applications in which ionic liquids are really more advantageous than traditional solvents. For all of these reasons in this Thesis a critical analysis of ionic liquids has been focused on three main topics: i) alternative synthesis by introducing structural moieties which could reduce the toxicity of the most known liquid salts, and by using starting materials from renewable resources; ii) on the evaluation of their environmental impact through eco-toxicological tests (Daphnia magna and Vibrio fischeri acute toxicity tests, and algal growth inhibition), toxicity tests (MTT test, AChE inhibition and LDH release tests) and fate and rate of aerobic biodegradation in soil and water; iii) and on the demonstration of their effectiveness as reaction media in organo-catalysis and as extractive solvents in the recovery of vegetable oil from terrestrial and aquatic biomass. The results about eco-toxicity tests with Daphnia magna, Vibrio fischeri and algae, and toxicity assay using cultured cell lines, clearly indicate that the difference in toxicity between alkyl and oxygenated cations relies in differences of polarity, according to the general trend of decreasing toxicity by decreasing the lipophilicity. Independently by the biological approach in fact, all the results are in agreement, showing a lower toxicity for compounds with oxygenated lateral chains than for those having purely alkyl lateral chains. These findings indicate that an appropriate choice of cation and anion structures is important not only to design the IL with improved and suitable chemico-physical properties but also to obtain safer and eco-friendly ILs. Moreover there is a clear indication that the composition of the abiotic environment has to be taken into account when the toxicity of ILs in various biological test systems is analysed, because, for example, the data reported in the Thesis indicate a significant influence of salinity variations on algal toxicity. Aerobic biodegradation of four imidazolium ionic liquids, two alkylated and two oxygenated, in soil was evaluated for the first time. Alkyl ionic liquids were shown to be biodegradable over the 6 months test period, and in contrast no significant mineralisation was observed with oxygenated derivatives. A different result was observed in the aerobic biodegradation of alkylated and oxygenated pyridinium ionic liquids in water because all the ionic liquids were almost completely degraded after 10 days, independently by the number of oxygen in the lateral chain of the cation. The synthesis of new ionic liquids by using renewable feedstock as starting materials, has been developed through the synthesis of furan-based ion pairs from furfural. The new ammonium salts were synthesised in very good yields, good purity of the products and wide versatility, combining low melting points with high decomposition temperatures and reduced viscosities. Regarding the possible applications as surfactants and biocides, furan-based salts could be a valuable alternative to benzyltributylammonium salts and benzalkonium chloride that are produced from non-renewable resources. A new procedure for the allylation of ketones and aldehydes with tetraallyltin in ionic liquids was developed. The reaction afforded high yields both in sulfonate-containing ILs and in ILs without sulfonate upon addition of a small amount of sulfonic acid. The checked reaction resulted in peculiar chemoselectivity favouring aliphatic substrates towards aromatic ketones and good stereoselectivity in the allylation of levoglucosenone. Finally ILs-based systems could be easily and successfully recycled, making the described procedure environmentally benign. The potential role of switchable polarity solvents as a green technology for the extraction of vegetable oil from terrestrial and aquatic biomass has been investigated. The extraction efficiency of terrestrial biomass rich in triacylglycerols, as soy bean flakes and sunflower seeds, was comparable to those of traditional organic solvents, being the yield of vegetable oils recovery very similar. Switchable polarity solvents as been also exploited for the first time in the extraction of hydrocarbons from the microalga Botryococcus braunii, demonstrating the efficiency of the process for the extraction of both dried microalgal biomass and directly of the aqueous growth medium. The switchable polarity solvents exhibited better extraction efficiency than conventional solvents, both with dried and liquid samples. This is an important issue considering that the harvest and the dewatering of algal biomass have a large impact on overall costs and energy balance.

Mathematical Modeling to Investigate Antiarrhythmic Drug Side Effects: Rate-Dependence Role in Ionic Currents and Action Potentials Shape in the O’Hara Model

Sudden cardiac death due to ventricular arrhythmia is one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In the last decades, it has proven that anti-arrhythmic drugs, which prolong the refractory period by means of prolongation of the cardiac action potential duration (APD), play a good role in preventing of relevant human arrhythmias. However, it has long been observed that the “class III antiarrhythmic effect” diminish at faster heart rates and that this phenomenon represent a big weakness, since it is the precise situation when arrhythmias are most prone to occur. It is well known that mathematical modeling is a useful tool for investigating cardiac cell behavior. In the last 60 years, a multitude of cardiac models has been created; from the pioneering work of Hodgkin and Huxley (1952), who first described the ionic currents of the squid giant axon quantitatively, mathematical modeling has made great strides. The O’Hara model, that I employed in this research work, is one of the modern computational models of ventricular myocyte, a new generation began in 1991 with ventricular cell model by Noble et al. Successful of these models is that you can generate novel predictions, suggest experiments and provide a quantitative understanding of underlying mechanism. Obviously, the drawback is that they remain simple models, they don’t represent the real system. The overall goal of this research is to give an additional tool, through mathematical modeling, to understand the behavior of the main ionic currents involved during the action potential (AP), especially underlining the differences between slower and faster heart rates. In particular to evaluate the rate-dependence role on the action potential duration, to implement a new method for interpreting ionic currents behavior after a perturbation effect and to verify the validity of the work proposed by Antonio Zaza using an injected current as a perturbing effect.

Collective effects for the LHC injectors: non-ultrarelativistic approaches

The upgrade of the CERN accelerator complex has been planned in order to further increase the LHC performances in exploring new physics frontiers. One of the main limitations to the upgrade is represented by the collective instabilities. These are intensity dependent phenomena triggered by electromagnetic fields excited by the interaction of the beam with its surrounding. These fields are represented via wake fields in time domain or impedances in frequency domain. Impedances are usually studied assuming ultrarelativistic bunches while we mainly explored low and medium energy regimes in the LHC injector chain. In a non-ultrarelativistic framework we carried out a complete study of the impedance structure of the PSB which accelerates proton bunches up to 1.4 GeV. We measured the imaginary part of the impedance which creates betatron tune shift. We introduced a parabolic bunch model which together with dedicated measurements allowed us to point to the resistive wall impedance as the source of one of the main PSB instability. These results are particularly useful for the design of efficient transverse instability dampers. We developed a macroparticle code to study the effect of the space charge on intensity dependent instabilities. Carrying out the analysis of the bunch modes we proved that the damping effects caused by the space charge, which has been modelled with semi-analytical method and using symplectic high order schemes, can increase the bunch intensity threshold. Numerical libraries have been also developed in order to study, via numerical simulations of the bunches, the impedance of the whole CERN accelerator complex. On a different note, the experiment CNGS at CERN, requires high-intensity beams. We calculated the interpolating Hamiltonian of the beam for highly non-linear lattices. These calculations provide the ground for theoretical and numerical studies aiming to improve the CNGS beam extraction from the PS to the SPS.

Changes in tumor stiffness for early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib: a proof-of-concept study with elastosonography in an animal model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)

Background and aims: Sorafenib is the reference therapy for advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). No method exists to predict in the very early period subsequent individual response. Starting from the clinical experience in humans that subcutaneous metastases may rapidly change consistency under sorafenib and that elastosonography a new ultrasound based technique allows assessment of tissue stiffness, we investigated the role of elastonography in the very early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib in a HCC animal model. Methods: HCC (Huh7 cells) subcutaneous xenografting in mice was utilized. Mice were randomized to vehicle or treatment with sorafenib when tumor size was 5-10 mm. Elastosonography (Mylab 70XVG, Esaote, Genova, Italy) of the whole tumor mass on a sagittal plane with a 10 MHz linear transducer was performed at different time points from treatment start (day 0, +2, +4, +7 and +14) until mice were sacrified (day +14), with the operator blind to treatment. In order to overcome variability in absolute elasticity measurement when assessing changes over time, values were expressed in arbitrary units as relative stiffness of the tumor tissue in comparison to the stiffness of a standard reference stand-off pad lying on the skin over the tumor. Results: Sor-treated mice showed a smaller tumor size increase at day +14 in comparison to vehicle-treated (tumor volume increase +192.76% vs +747.56%, p=0.06). Among Sor-treated tumors, 6 mice showed a better response to treatment than the other 4 (increase in volume +177% vs +553%, p=0.011). At day +2, median tumor elasticity increased in Sor-treated group (+6.69%, range –30.17-+58.51%), while decreased in the vehicle group (-3.19%, range –53.32-+37.94%) leading to a significant difference in absolute values (p=0.034). From this time point onward, elasticity decreased in both groups, with similar speed over time, not being statistically different anymore. In Sor-treated mice all 6 best responders at day 14 showed an increase in elasticity at day +2 (ranging from +3.30% to +58.51%) in comparison to baseline, whereas 3 of the 4 poorer responders showed a decrease. Interestingly, these 3 tumours showed elasticity values higher than responder tumours at day 0. Conclusions: Elastosonography appears a promising non-invasive new technique for the early prediction of HCC tumor response to sorafenib. Indeed, we proved that responder tumours are characterized by an early increase in elasticity. The possibility to distinguish a priori between responders and non responders based on the higher elasticity of the latter needs to be validated in ad-hoc experiments as well as a confirmation of our results in humans is warranted.

Influences of deep convective cloud systems on tropospheric trace gases and photochemistry over the tropical West Pacific

A numerical model for studying the influences of deep convective cloud systems on photochemistry was developed based on a non-hydrostatic meteorological model and chemistry from a global chemistry transport model. The transport of trace gases, the scavenging of soluble trace gases, and the influences of lightning produced nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) on the local ozone-related photochemistry were investigated in a multi-day case study for an oceanic region located in the tropical western Pacific. Model runs considering influences of large scale flows, previously neglected in multi-day cloud resolving and single column model studies of tracer transport, yielded that the influence of the mesoscale subsidence (between clouds) on trace gas transport was considerably overestimated in these studies. The simulated vertical transport and scavenging of highly soluble tracers were found to depend on the initial profiles, reconciling contrasting results from two previous studies. Influences of the modeled uptake of trace gases by hydrometeors in the liquid and the ice phase were studied in some detail for a small number of atmospheric trace gases and novel aspects concerning the role of the retention coefficient (i.e. the fraction of a dissolved trace gas that is retained in the ice phase upon freezing) on the vertical transport of highly soluble gases were illuminated. Including lightning NOx production inside a 500 km 2-D model domain was found to be important for the NOx budget and caused small to moderate changes in the domain averaged ozone concentrations. A number of sensitivity studies yielded that the fraction of lightning associated NOx which was lost through photochemical reactions in the vicinity of the lightning source was considerable, but strongly depended on assumptions about the magnitude and the altitude of the lightning NOx source. In contrast to a suggestion from an earlier study, it was argued that the near zero upper tropospheric ozone mixing ratios which were observed close to the study region were most probably not caused by the formation of NO associated with lightning. Instead, it was argued in agreement with suggestions from other studies that the deep convective transport of ozone-poor air masses from the relatively unpolluted marine boundary layer, which have most likely been advected horizontally over relatively large distances (both before and after encountering deep convection) probably played a role. In particular, it was suggested that the ozone profiles observed during CEPEX (Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment) were strongly influenced by the deep convection and the larger scale flow which are associated with the intra-seasonal oscillation.

Study of the interactions of Neptunium with humic substances and the clay mineral montmorillonite by direct and non direct speciation methods

For the safety assessment of radioactive waste, the possibility of radionuclide migration has to be considered. Since Np (and also Th due to the long-lived 232-Th) will be responsible for the greatest amount of radioactivity one million years after discharge from the reactor, its (im)-mobilization in the geosphere is of great importance. Furthermore, the chemistry of Np(V) is quite similar (but not identical) to the chemistry of Pu(V). Three species of neptunium may be found in the near field of the waste disposal, but pentavalent neptunium is the most abundant species under a wide range of natural conditions. Within this work, the interaction of Np(V) with the clay mineral montmorillonite and melanodins (as model substances for humic acids) was studied. The sorption of neptunium onto gibbsite, a model clay for montmorillonite, was also investigated. The sorption of neptunium onto γ-alumina and montmorillonite was studied in a parallel doctoral work by S. Dierking. Neptunium is only found in ultra trace amounts in the environment. Therefore, sensitive and specific methods are needed for its determination. The sorption was determined by γ spectroscopy and LSC for the whole concentration range studied. In addition the combination of these techniques with ultrafiltration allowed the study of Np(V) complexation with melanoidins. Regrettably, the available speciation methods (e.g. CE-ICP-MS and EXAFS) are not capable to detect the environmentally relevant neptunium concentrations. Therefore, a combination of batch experiments and speciation analyses was performed. Further, the preparation of hybrid clay-based materials (HCM) montmorillonitemelanoidins for sorption studies was achieved. The formation of hybrid materials begins in the interlayers of the montmorillonite, and then the organic material spreads over the surface of the mineral. The sorption of Np onto HCM was studied at the environmentally relevant concentrations and the results obtained were compared with those predicted by the linear additive model by Samadfam. The sorption of neptunium onto gibbsite was studied in batch experiments and the sorption maximum determined at pH~8.5. The sorption isotherm pointed to the presence of strong and weak sorption sites in gibbsite. The Np speciation was studied by using EXAFS, which showed that the sorbed species was Np(V). The influence of M42 type melanodins on the sorption of Np(V) onto montmorillonite was also investigated at pH 7. The sorption of the melanoidins was affected by the order in which the components were added and by ionic strength. The sorption of Np was affected by ionic strength, pointing to outer sphere sorption, whereas the presence of increasing amounts of melanoidins had little influence on Np sorption.

Multidimensional Measures of Firm Competitiveness: a Model-Based Approach

The concept of competitiveness, for a long time considered as strictly connected to economic and financial performances, evolved, above all in recent years, toward new, wider interpretations disclosing its multidimensional nature. The shift to a multidimensional view of the phenomenon has excited an intense debate involving theoretical reflections on the features characterizing it, as well as methodological considerations on its assessment and measurement. The present research has a twofold objective: going in depth with the study of tangible and intangible aspect characterizing multidimensional competitive phenomena by assuming a micro-level point of view, and measuring competitiveness through a model-based approach. Specifically, we propose a non-parametric approach to Structural Equation Models techniques for the computation of multidimensional composite measures. Structural Equation Models tools will be used for the development of the empirical application on the italian case: a model based micro-level competitiveness indicator for the measurement of the phenomenon on a large sample of Italian small and medium enterprises will be constructed.

Shear behaviour of reinforced cconcrete slab under concentrated load: an investigation through non-linear and sequentially linear analysis

English: The assessment of safety in existing bridges and viaducts led the Ministry of Public Works of the Netherlands to finance a specific campaing aimed at the study of the response of the elements of these infrastructures. Therefore, this activity is focused on the investigation of the behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs under concentrated loads, adopting finite element modeling and comparison with experimental results. These elements are characterized by shear behaviour and crisi, whose modeling is, from a computational point of view, a hard challeng, due to the brittle behavior combined with three-dimensional effects. The numerical modeling of the failure is studied through Sequentially Linear Analysis (SLA), an alternative Finite Element method, with respect to traditional incremental and iterative approaches. The comparison between the two different numerical techniques represents one of the first works and comparisons in a three-dimensional environment. It's carried out adopting one of the experimental test executed on reinforced concrete slabs as well. The advantage of the SLA is to avoid the well known problems of convergence of typical non-linear analysis, by directly specifying a damage increment, in terms of reduction of stiffness and resistance in particular finite element, instead of load or displacement increasing on the whole structure . For the first time, particular attention has been paid to specific aspects of the slabs, like an accurate constraints modeling and sensitivity of the solution with respect to the mesh density. This detailed analysis with respect to the main parameters proofed a strong influence of the tensile fracture energy, mesh density and chosen model on the solution in terms of force-displacement diagram, distribution of the crack patterns and shear failure mode. The SLA showed a great potential, but it requires a further developments for what regards two aspects of modeling: load conditions (constant and proportional loads) and softening behaviour of brittle materials (like concrete) in the three-dimensional field, in order to widen its horizons in these new contexts of study.

Numerische und analytische Untersuchungen stark korrelierter fermionischer Mehrbandsysteme

In dieser Arbeit werden vier unterschiedliche, stark korrelierte, fermionische Mehrbandsysteme untersucht. Es handelt sich dabei um ein Mehrstörstellen-Anderson-Modell, zwei Hubbard-Modelle sowie ein Mehrbandsystem, wie es sich aus einer ab initio-Beschreibung für ein korreliertes Halbmetall ergibt.rnrnDie Betrachtung des Mehrstörstellen-Anderson-Modells konzentriert sich auf die Untersuchung des Einflusses der Austauschwechselwirkung und der nicht-lokalen Korrelationen zwischen zwei Störstellen in einem einfach-kubischen Gitter. Das zentrale Resultat ist die Abstandsabhängigkeit der Korrelationen der Störstellenelektronen, welche stark von der Gitterdimension und der relativen Position der Störstellen abhängen. Bemerkenswert ist hier die lange Reichweite der Korrelationen in der Diagonalrichtung des Gitters. Außerdem ergibt sich, dass eine antiferromagnetische Austauschwechselwirkung ein Singulett zwischen den Störstellenelektronen gegenüber den Kondo-Singuletts der einzelnen Störstellen favorisiert und so den Kondo-Effekt der einzelnen Störstellen behindert.rnrnEin Zweiband-Hubbard-Modell, das Jz-Modell, wird im Hinblick auf seine Mott-Phasen in Abhängigkeit von Dotierung und Kristallfeldaufspaltung auf dem Bethe-Gitter untersucht. Die Entartung der Bänder ist durch eine unterschiedliche Bandbreite aufgehoben. Wichtigstes Ergebnis sind die Phasendiagramme in Bezug auf Wechselwirkung, Gesamtfüllung und Kristallfeldparameter. Im Vergleich zu Einbandmodellen kommen im Jz-Modell sogenannte orbital-selektive Mott-Phasen hinzu, die, abhängig von Wechselwirkung, Gesamtfüllung und Kristallfeldparameter, einerseits metallischen und andererseits isolierenden Charakter haben. Ein neuer Aspekt ergibt sich durch den Kristallfeldparameter, der die ionischen Einteilchenniveaus relativ zueinander verschiebt, und für bestimmte Werte eine orbital-selektive Mott-Phase des breiten Bands ermöglicht. Im Vergleich mit analytischen Näherungslösungen und Einbandmodellen lassen sich generische Vielteilchen- und Korrelationseffekte von typischen Mehrband- und Einteilcheneffekten differenzieren.rnrnDas zweite untersuchte Hubbard-Modell beschreibt eine magneto-optische Falle mit einer endlichen Anzahl Gitterplätze, in welcher fermionische Atome platziert sind. Es wird eine z-antiferromagnetische Phase unter Berücksichtigung nicht-lokaler Vielteilchenkorrelationen erhalten, und dabei werden bekannte Ergebnisse einer effektiven Einteilchenbeschreibung verbessert.rnrnDas korrelierte Halbmetall wird im Rahmen einer Mehrbandrechnung im Hinblick auf Korrelationseffekte untersucht. Ausgangspunkt ist eine ab initio-Beschreibung durch die Dichtefunktionaltheorie (DFT), welche dann durch die Hinzunahme lokaler Korrelationen ergänzt wird. Die Vielteilcheneffekte werden an Hand einer einfachen Wechselwirkungsnäherung verdeutlicht, und für ein Wechselwirkungsmodell in sphärischer Symmetrie präzisiert. Es ergibt sich nur eine schwache Quasiteilchenrenormierung. Besonders für röntgenspektroskopische Experimente wird eine gute Übereinstimmung erzielt.rnrnDie numerischen Ergebnisse für das Jz-Modell basieren auf Quanten-Monte-Carlo-Simulationen im Rahmen der dynamischen Molekularfeldtheorie (DMFT). Für alle anderen Systeme wird ein Mehrband-Algorithmus entwickelt und implementiert, welcher explizit nicht-diagonale Mehrbandprozesse berücksichtigt.rnrn

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Chiral properties of two-flavour QCD at zero and non-zero temperature

Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics (LQCD) is the preferred tool for obtaining non-perturbative results from QCD in the low-energy regime. It has by nowrnentered the era in which high precision calculations for a number of phenomenologically relevant observables at the physical point, with dynamical quark degrees of freedom and controlled systematics, become feasible. Despite these successes there are still quantities where control of systematic effects is insufficient. The subject of this thesis is the exploration of the potential of todays state-of-the-art simulation algorithms for non-perturbativelyrn$\mathcal{O}(a)$-improved Wilson fermions to produce reliable results in thernchiral regime and at the physical point both for zero and non-zero temperature. Important in this context is the control over the chiral extrapolation. Thisrnthesis is concerned with two particular topics, namely the computation of hadronic form factors at zero temperature, and the properties of the phaserntransition in the chiral limit of two-flavour QCD.rnrnThe electromagnetic iso-vector form factor of the pion provides a platform to study systematic effects and the chiral extrapolation for observables connected to the structure of mesons (and baryons). Mesonic form factors are computationally simpler than their baryonic counterparts but share most of the systematic effects. This thesis contains a comprehensive study of the form factor in the regime of low momentum transfer $q^2$, where the form factor is connected to the charge radius of the pion. A particular emphasis is on the region very close to $q^2=0$ which has not been explored so far, neither in experiment nor in LQCD. The results for the form factor close the gap between the smallest spacelike $q^2$-value available so far and $q^2=0$, and reach an unprecedented accuracy at full control over the main systematic effects. This enables the model-independent extraction of the pion charge radius. The results for the form factor and the charge radius are used to test chiral perturbation theory ($\chi$PT) and are thereby extrapolated to the physical point and the continuum. The final result in units of the hadronic radius $r_0$ is rn$$ \left\langle r_\pi^2 \right\rangle^{\rm phys}/r_0^2 = 1.87 \: \left(^{+12}_{-10}\right)\left(^{+\:4}_{-15}\right) \quad \textnormal{or} \quad \left\langle r_\pi^2 \right\rangle^{\rm phys} = 0.473 \: \left(^{+30}_{-26}\right)\left(^{+10}_{-38}\right)(10) \: \textnormal{fm} \;, $$rn which agrees well with the results from other measurements in LQCD and experiment. Note, that this is the first continuum extrapolated result for the charge radius from LQCD which has been extracted from measurements of the form factor in the region of small $q^2$.rnrnThe order of the phase transition in the chiral limit of two-flavour QCD and the associated transition temperature are the last unkown features of the phase diagram at zero chemical potential. The two possible scenarios are a second order transition in the $O(4)$-universality class or a first order transition. Since direct simulations in the chiral limit are not possible the transition can only be investigated by simulating at non-zero quark mass with a subsequent chiral extrapolation, guided by the universal scaling in the vicinity of the critical point. The thesis presents the setup and first results from a study on this topic. The study provides the ideal platform to test the potential and limits of todays simulation algorithms at finite temperature. The results from a first scan at a constant zero-temperature pion mass of about 290~MeV are promising, and it appears that simulations down to physical quark masses are feasible. Of particular relevance for the order of the chiral transition is the strength of the anomalous breaking of the $U_A(1)$ symmetry at the transition point. It can be studied by looking at the degeneracies of the correlation functions in scalar and pseudoscalar channels. For the temperature scan reported in this thesis the breaking is still pronounced in the transition region and the symmetry becomes effectively restored only above $1.16\:T_C$. The thesis also provides an extensive outline of research perspectives and includes a generalisation of the standard multi-histogram method to explicitly $\beta$-dependent fermion actions.

Aerosol-cloud interactions studied with a chemistry-climate model

This study aims at a comprehensive understanding of the effects of aerosol-cloud interactions and their effects on cloud properties and climate using the chemistry-climate model EMAC. In this study, CCN activation is regarded as the dominant driver in aerosol-cloud feedback loops in warm clouds. The CCN activation is calculated prognostically using two different cloud droplet nucleation parameterizations, the STN and HYB CDN schemes. Both CDN schemes account for size and chemistry effects on the droplet formation based on the same aerosol properties. The calculation of the solute effect (hygroscopicity) is the main difference between the CDN schemes. The kappa-method is for the first time incorporated into Abdul-Razzak and Ghan activation scheme (ARG) to calculate hygroscopicity and critical supersaturation of aerosols (HYB), and the performance of the modied scheme is compared with the osmotic coefficient model (STN), which is the standard in the ARG scheme. Reference simulations (REF) with the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration have also been carried out in order to understand the effects of aerosol-cloud feedbacks. In addition, since the calculated cloud coverage is an important determinant of cloud radiative effects and is influencing the nucleation process two cloud cover parameterizations (i.e., a relative humidity threshold; RH-CLC and a statistical cloud cover scheme; ST-CLC) have been examined together with the CDN schemes, and their effects on the simulated cloud properties and relevant climate parameters have been investigated. The distinct cloud droplet spectra show strong sensitivity to aerosol composition effects on cloud droplet formation in all particle sizes, especially for the Aitken mode. As Aitken particles are the major component of the total aerosol number concentration and CCN, and are most sensitive to aerosol chemical composition effect (solute effect) on droplet formation, the activation of Aitken particles strongly contribute to total cloud droplet formation and thereby providing different cloud droplet spectra. These different spectra influence cloud structure, cloud properties, and climate, and show regionally varying sensitivity to meteorological and geographical condition as well as the spatiotemporal aerosol properties (i.e., particle size, number, and composition). The changes responding to different CDN schemes are more pronounced at lower altitudes than higher altitudes. Among regions, the subarctic regions show the strongest changes, as the lower surface temperature amplifies the effects of the activated aerosols; in contrast, the Sahara desert, where is an extremely dry area, is less influenced by changes in CCN number concentration. The aerosol-cloud coupling effects have been examined by comparing the prognostic CDN simulations (STN, HYB) with the reference simulation (REF). Most pronounced effects are found in the cloud droplet number concentration, cloud water distribution, and cloud radiative effect. The aerosol-cloud coupling generally increases cloud droplet number concentration; this decreases the efficiency of the formation of weak stratiform precipitation, and increases the cloud water loading. These large-scale changes lead to larger cloud cover and longer cloud lifetime, and contribute to high optical thickness and strong cloud cooling effects. This cools the Earth's surface, increases atmospheric stability, and reduces convective activity. These changes corresponding to aerosol-cloud feedbacks are also differently simulated depending on the cloud cover scheme. The ST-CLC scheme is more sensitive to aerosol-cloud coupling, since this scheme uses a tighter linkage of local dynamics and cloud water distributions in cloud formation process than the RH-CLC scheme. For the calculated total cloud cover, the RH-CLC scheme simulates relatively similar pattern to observations than the ST-CLC scheme does, but the overall properties (e.g., total cloud cover, cloud water content) in the RH simulations are overestimated, particularly over ocean. This is mainly originated from the difference in simulated skewness in each scheme: the RH simulations calculate negatively skewed distributions of cloud cover and relevant cloud water, which is similar to that of the observations, while the ST simulations yield positively skewed distributions resulting in lower mean values than the RH-CLC scheme does. The underestimation of total cloud cover over ocean, particularly over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) relates to systematic defficiency of the prognostic calculation of skewness in the current set-ups of the ST-CLC scheme.rnOverall, the current EMAC model set-ups perform better over continents for all combinations of the cloud droplet nucleation and cloud cover schemes. To consider aerosol-cloud feedbacks, the HYB scheme is a better method for predicting cloud and climate parameters for both cloud cover schemes than the STN scheme. The RH-CLC scheme offers a better simulation of total cloud cover and the relevant parameters with the HYB scheme and single-moment microphysics (REF) than the ST-CLC does, but is not very sensitive to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Assimilation of data from conventional and non conventional networks through a LETKF scheme in the COSMO model

The present work studies a km-scale data assimilation scheme based on a LETKF developed for the COSMO model. The aim is to evaluate the impact of the assimilation of two different types of data: temperature, humidity, pressure and wind data from conventional networks (SYNOP, TEMP, AIREP reports) and 3d reflectivity from radar volume. A 3-hourly continuous assimilation cycle has been implemented over an Italian domain, based on a 20 member ensemble, with boundary conditions provided from ECMWF ENS. Three different experiments have been run for evaluating the performance of the assimilation on one week in October 2014 during which Genova flood and Parma flood took place: a control run of the data assimilation cycle with assimilation of data from conventional networks only, a second run in which the SPPT scheme is activated into the COSMO model, a third run in which also reflectivity volumes from meteorological radar are assimilated. Objective evaluation of the experiments has been carried out both on case studies and on the entire week: check of the analysis increments, computing the Desroziers statistics for SYNOP, TEMP, AIREP and RADAR, over the Italian domain, verification of the analyses against data not assimilated (temperature at the lowest model level objectively verified against SYNOP data), and objective verification of the deterministic forecasts initialised with the KENDA analyses for each of the three experiments.