873 resultados para Net expected return


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This thesis consists of an introduction, four research articles and an appendix. The thesis studies relations between two different approaches to continuum limit of models of two dimensional statistical mechanics at criticality. The approach of conformal field theory (CFT) could be thought of as the algebraic classification of some basic objects in these models. It has been succesfully used by physicists since 1980's. The other approach, Schramm-Loewner evolutions (SLEs), is a recently introduced set of mathematical methods to study random curves or interfaces occurring in the continuum limit of the models. The first and second included articles argue on basis of statistical mechanics what would be a plausible relation between SLEs and conformal field theory. The first article studies multiple SLEs, several random curves simultaneously in a domain. The proposed definition is compatible with a natural commutation requirement suggested by Dubédat. The curves of multiple SLE may form different topological configurations, ``pure geometries''. We conjecture a relation between the topological configurations and CFT concepts of conformal blocks and operator product expansions. Example applications of multiple SLEs include crossing probabilities for percolation and Ising model. The second article studies SLE variants that represent models with boundary conditions implemented by primary fields. The most well known of these, SLE(kappa, rho), is shown to be simple in terms of the Coulomb gas formalism of CFT. In the third article the space of local martingales for variants of SLE is shown to carry a representation of Virasoro algebra. Finding this structure is guided by the relation of SLEs and CFTs in general, but the result is established in a straightforward fashion. This article, too, emphasizes multiple SLEs and proposes a possible way of treating pure geometries in terms of Coulomb gas. The fourth article states results of applications of the Virasoro structure to the open questions of SLE reversibility and duality. Proofs of the stated results are provided in the appendix. The objective is an indirect computation of certain polynomial expected values. Provided that these expected values exist, in generic cases they are shown to possess the desired properties, thus giving support for both reversibility and duality.

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The thesis examines homeowners associations as a part of the large-scale housing reform, implemented in Russia since 2005. The reform transferred housing management from the public sector to the private sector and to the citizens responsibility. The reform is a continuation to the privatisation of the housing stock that was started in Russia in the beginning of the 1990s, aiming to build a market-oriented housing sector in the country. The reform makes a fundamental change to the Soviet system, in which ownership along with management and maintenance of housing were monopolised by the state. Homeowners are now responsible for the management of the common areas in privatised houses, which is often realised by establishing a homeowners association. Homeowners associations are examined by using the so-called common-pool resource regime approach, with the main question being the ways in which taking care of common property collectively succeeds in practice. The study is based on interview data of St. Petersburg s homeowners associations. Using the common-pool resource theory the study demonstrates why implementation of the housing reform has not succeeded as expected. Certain elements that characterise a successful common-pool resource regime do not fulfill sufficiently in St. Petersburg s homeowners associations. Firstly, free-riding, that is, withdrawal from the association s joint decision-making and not making the housing payments is common, as effective sanctions to prevent it are missing in the legislation. That is, eviction or expelling a non-paying member from the association is not possible. Secondly, ownership of the land plot and common areas of the house, such as basements and attics, are often disputed between the associations and authorities. In the Soviet era, these common areas were public property along with the apartments, but in privatised houses they should, according to the legislation, belong to the associations property. Thirdly, solution of disputes between the associations and authorities and within the associations is difficult, as the court system tends to be bureaucratic and inefficient. In addition to the common-pool resource approach, the study also examines how social capital contributes to the associations effectiveness and democratic governance. The study finds that although homeowners associations have increased cooperation and tightened social relations between neighbours, social capital has not been able to prevent free-riding. The study shows that unlike it is often claimed, the so-called Soviet mentality , that is, residents passiveness and unwillingness to participate, is not the most important obstacle to the reform. Instead, the reform is impeded most of all by imperfect institutional arrangements and local authorities that prevent the associations from working as independent, self-governing associations.

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This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

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The thesis The portrait interview as a newspaper genre. A qualitative close reading focussing on topical motifs, conventions of narration, and gender defines the portrait interview as a newspaper genre and analyses how the personalities in the portraits are constructed textually. The main body of material consists of 107 portrait interviews in two morning newspapers, Dagens Nyheter (published in Stockholm, Sweden) and Hufvudstadsbladet (published in Swedish in Helsinki, Finland), during two one-week periods (week 46/1999 and week 38/2002). There is also complementary material of 59 portraits from four magazines. The study is carried out within the research traditions of journalistic genre studies, gender and journalism, and critical text analysis. It is comprised of a qualitative close reading focussing on content (topical motifs or themes), conventions of narration, and gender. The methods used to carry out the study are qualitative close reading and quantitative content analysis. The analysis identifies the stylistic elements that differentiate the portrait genre from other journalistic genres, as well as from the autobiographical genre, and explores what opportunities and limitations these elements present for the inclusion of even more women protagonists in the portrait genre. The portrait interview is an exception from the critical mission of journalism in general, with its position as a genre of politeness. Since a typical characteristic of the portrait interview genre is that it pays tribute to the protagonist, the genre reveals the kind of personalities and lives that are seen as admirable in society. Four levels of portrait interview are defined: the prototype portrait, the pure portrait, the hybrid portrait and the marginal portrait. The prototype is a raw version of a portrait that fulfils the criteria but may be lacking in content and stylistics. The pure portrait does not lack these qualities and resembles an ideal portrait. The hybrid is a borderline case which relates to another genre or is a mixture between the portrait and some other genre, most commonly the news genre. The marginal portrait does not fulfil the criteria, and can therefore be seen as an inadequate portrait. For example, obituaries and caricatures are excluded if the protagonist s voice is never quoted. The analysis resulted in three factors that in part help to explain why the portrait interview genre has somewhat more female protagonists than journalistic news texts do in general. The four main reasons why women are presented somewhat more in the portrait genre than in other journalistic genres are: (i) women are shown as exceptions to the female norm when, for example, taking a typical male job or managing in positions where there are few women; (ii) women are shown as representing female themes ; (iii) use of the double bind as a story-generating factor; and (iv) the intimisation of journalism. The double bind usually builds up the narration on female ambiguity in the contradiction between private and public life, for example family and career, personal desire and work. The intimisation of journalism and the double bind give women protagonists somewhat more publicity also because of the tendency of portrait interviews to create conflicts within the protagonist, as an exception to journalism in general where conflicts are created or seen as existing between, for example, persons, groupings or parties. Women protagonists and their lives create an optimal narration of inner conflicts originating in the double bind as men are usually not seen as suffering from these conflicts. The analysis also resulted in gendered portrait norms: The feminine portrait norm and the masculine portrait norm or more concretely, professional life and family life as expectation and exception. Women are expected to be responsible parents and mediocre professionals, while men are expected to be professionals and in their free time engaging fathers. Key words: journalism, genre, portrait interview, gender, interview, newspaper, women s magazine.

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We have observed the reactions p+pbar --> p+X+pbar, with X being a centrally produced J/psi, psi(2S) or chi_c0, and gamma+gamma --> mu+mu-, in proton- antiproton collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV using the Run II Collider Detector at Fermilab. The event signature requires two oppositely charged muons, each with pseudorapidity |eta| mu+mu-. Events with a J/psi and an associated photon candidate are consistent with exclusive chi_c0 production through double pomeron exchange. The exclusive vector meson production is as expected for elastic photo- production, gamma+p --> J/psi(psi(2S)) + p, which is observed here for the first time in hadron-hadron collisions. The cross sections ds/dy(y=0) for p + pbar --> p + X + pbar with X = J/psi, psi(2S) orchi_c0 are 3.92+/-0.62 nb, 0.53+/-0.14 nb, and 75+/-14 nb respectively. The cross section for the continuum, with |eta(mu+/-)|

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We have observed the reactions p+pbar --> p+X+pbar, with X being a centrally produced J/psi, psi(2S) or chi_c0, and gamma+gamma --> mu+mu-, in proton- antiproton collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV using the Run II Collider Detector at Fermilab. The event signature requires two oppositely charged muons, each with pseudorapidity |eta| mu+mu-. Events with a J/psi and an associated photon candidate are consistent with exclusive chi_c0 production through double pomeron exchange. The exclusive vector meson production is as expected for elastic photo- production, gamma+p --> J/psi(psi(2S)) + p, which is observed here for the first time in hadron-hadron collisions. The cross sections ds/dy(y=0) for p + pbar --> p + X + pbar with X = J/psi, psi(2S) orchi_c0 are 3.92+/-0.62 nb, 0.53+/-0.14 nb, and 75+/-14 nb respectively. The cross section for the continuum, with |eta(mu+/-)|

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A repetitive sequence collection is one where portions of a base sequence of length n are repeated many times with small variations, forming a collection of total length N. Examples of such collections are version control data and genome sequences of individuals, where the differences can be expressed by lists of basic edit operations. Flexible and efficient data analysis on a such typically huge collection is plausible using suffix trees. However, suffix tree occupies O(N log N) bits, which very soon inhibits in-memory analyses. Recent advances in full-text self-indexing reduce the space of suffix tree to O(N log σ) bits, where σ is the alphabet size. In practice, the space reduction is more than 10-fold, for example on suffix tree of Human Genome. However, this reduction factor remains constant when more sequences are added to the collection. We develop a new family of self-indexes suited for the repetitive sequence collection setting. Their expected space requirement depends only on the length n of the base sequence and the number s of variations in its repeated copies. That is, the space reduction factor is no longer constant, but depends on N / n. We believe the structures developed in this work will provide a fundamental basis for storage and retrieval of individual genomes as they become available due to rapid progress in the sequencing technologies.

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The evacuation of Finnish children to Sweden during WW II has often been called a small migration . Historical research on this subject is scarce, considering the great number of children involved. The present research has applied, apart from the traditional archive research, the framework of history-culture developed by Rüsen in order to have an all-inclusive approach to the impact of this historical event. The framework has three dimensions: political, aesthetic and cognitive. The collective memory of war children has also been discussed. The research looks for political factors involved in the evacuations during the Winter War and the Continuation War and the post-war period. The approach is wider than a purely humanitarian one. Political factors have had an impact in both Finland and Sweden, beginning from the decision-making process and ending with the discussion of the unexpected consequences of the evacuations in the Finnish Parliament in 1950. The Winter War (30.11.1939 13.3.1940) witnessed the first child transports. These were also the model for future decision making. The transports were begun on the initiative of Swedes Maja Sandler, the wife of the resigned minister of foreign affairs Rickard Sandler, and Hanna Rydh-Munck af Rosenschöld , but this activity was soon accepted by the Swedish government because the humanitarian help in the form of child transports lightened the political burden of Prime Minister Hansson, who was not willing to help Finland militarily. It was help that Finland never asked for and it was rejected at the beginning. The negative response of Minister Juho Koivisto was not taken very seriously. The political forces in Finland supporting child transports were stronger than those rejecting them. The major politicians in support belonged to Finland´s Swedish minority. In addition, close to 1 000 Finnish children remained in Sweden after the Winter War. No analysis was made of the reasons why these children did not return home. A committee set up to help Finland and Norway was established in Sweden in 1941. Its chairman was Torsten Nothin, an influential Swedish politician. In December 1941 he appealed to the Swedish government to provide help to Finnish children under the authority of The International Red Cross. This plea had no results. The delivery of great amounts of food to Finland, which was now at war with Great Britain, had automatically caused reactions among the allies against the Swedish imports through Gothenburg. This included the import of oil, which was essential for the Swedish navy and air force. Oil was later used successfully to force a reduction in commerce between Sweden and Finland. The contradiction between Sweden´s essential political interests and humanitarian help was solved in a way that did not harm the country´s vital political interests. Instead of delivering help to Finland, Finnish children were transported to Sweden through the organisations that had already been created. At the beginning of the Continuation War (25.6.1941 27.4.1945) negative opinion regarding child transports re-emerged in Finland. Karl-August Fagerholm implemented the transports in September 1941. In 1942, members of the conservative parties in the Finnish Parliament expressed their fear of losing the children to the Swedes. They suggested that Finland should withdraw from the inter-Nordic agreement, according to which the adoptions were approved by the court of the country where the child resided. This initiative failed. Paavo Virkkunen, an influential member of the conservative party Kokoomus in Finland, favoured the so-called good-father system, where help was delivered to Finland in the form of money and goods. Virkkunen was concerned about the consequences of a long stay in a Swedish family. The risk of losing the children was clear. The extreme conservative party (IKL, the Patriotic Movement of the Finnish People) wanted to alienate Finland from Sweden and bring Finland closer to Germany. Von Blücher, the German ambassador to Finland, had in his report to Berlin, mentioned the political consequences of the child transports. Among other things, they would bring Finland and Sweden closer to each other. He had also paid attention to the Nordic political orientation in Finland. He did not question or criticize the child transports. His main interest was to increase German political influence in Finland, and the Nordic political orientation was an obstacle. Fagerholm was politically ill-favoured by the Germans, because he had a strong Nordic political disposition and had criticised Germany´s activities in Norway. The criticism of child transports was at the same time criticism of Fagerholm. The official censorship organ of the Finnish government (VTL) denied the criticism of child transports in January 1942. The reasons were political. Statements made by members of the Finnish Parliament were also censored, because it was thought that they would offend the Swedes. In addition, the censorship organ used child transports as a means of active propaganda aimed at improving the relations between the two countries. The Finnish Parliament was informed in 1948 that about 15 000 Finnish children still remained in Sweden. These children would stay there permanently. In 1950 the members of the Agrarian Party in Finland stated that Finland should actively strive to get the children back. The party on the left (SKDL, the Democratic Movement of Finnish People) also focused on the unexpected consequences of the child transports. The Social Democrats, and largely Fagerholm, had been the main force in Finland behind the child transports. Members of the SKDL, controlled by Finland´s Communist Party, stated that the war time authorities were responsible for this war loss. Many of the Finnish parents could not get their children back despite repeated requests. The discussion of the problem became political, for example von Born, a member of the Swedish minority party RKP, related this problem to foreign policy by stating that the request to repatriate the Finnish children would have negative political consequences for the relations between Finland and Sweden. He emphasized expressing feelings of gratitude to the Swedes. After the war a new foreign policy was established by Prime Minister (1944 1946) and later President (1946 1956) Juho Kusti Paasikivi. The main cornerstone of this policy was to establish good relations with the Soviet Union. The other, often forgotten, cornerstone was to simultaneously establish good relations with other Nordic countries, especially Sweden, as a counterbalance. The unexpected results of the child evacuation, a Swedish initiative, had violated the good relations with Sweden. The motives of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People were much the same as those of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People. Only the ideology was different. The Nordic political orientation was an obstacle to both parties. The position of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People was much better than that of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People, because now one could clearly see the unexpected results, which included human tragedy for the many families who could not be re-united with their children despite their repeated requests. The Swedes questioned the figure given to the Finnish Parliament regarding the number of children permanently remaining in Sweden. This research agrees with the Swedes. In a calculation based on Swedish population registers, the number of these children is about 7 100. The reliability of this figure is increased by the fact that the child allowance programme began in Sweden in 1948. The prerequisite to have this allowance was that the child be in the Swedish population register. It was not necessary for the child to have Swedish nationality. The Finnish Parliament had false information about the number of Finnish children who remained in Sweden in 1942 and in 1950. There was no parliamentary control in Finland regarding child transports, because the decision was made by one cabinet member and speeches by MPs in the Finnish Parliament were censored, like all criticism regarding child transports to Sweden. In Great Britain parliamentary control worked better throughout the whole war, because the speeches regarding evacuation were not censored. At the beginning of the war certain members of the British Labour Party and the Welsh Nationalists were particularly outspoken about the scheme. Fagerholm does not discuss to any great extent the child transports in his memoirs. He does not evaluate the process and results as a whole. This research provides some possibilities for an evaluation of this sort. The Swedish medical reports give a clear picture of the physical condition of the Finnish children when arriving in Sweden. The transports actually revealed how bad the situation of the poorest children was. According to Titmuss, similar observations were made in Great Britain during the British evacuations. The child transports saved the lives of approximately 2 900 children. Most of these children were removed to Sweden to receive treatment for illnesses, but many among the healthy children were undernourished and some suffered from the effects of tuberculosis. The medical inspection in Finland was not thorough. If you compare the figure of 2 900 children saved and returned with the figure of about 7 100 children who remained permanently in Sweden, you may draw the conclusion that Finland as a country failed to benefit from the child transports, and that the whole operation was a political mistake with far-reaching consequenses. The basic goal of the operation was to save lives and have all the children return to Finland after the war. The difficulties with the repatriation of the children were mainly psychological. The level of child psychology in Finland at that time was low. One may question the report by Professor Martti Kaila regarding the adaptation of children to their families back in Finland. Anna Freud´s warnings concerning the difficulties that arise when child evacuees return are also valid in Finland. Freud viewed the emotional life of children in a way different from Kaila: the physical survival of a small child forces her to create strong emotional ties to the person who is looking after her. This, a characteristic of all small children, occurred with the Finnish children too, and it was something the political decision makers in Finland could not see during and after the war. It is a characteristic of all little children. Yet, such experiences were already evident during the Winter War. The best possible solution had been to limit the child transports only to children in need of medical treatment. Children from large and poor families had been helped by organising meals and by buying food from Denmark with Swedish money. Assisting Finland by all possible means should have been the basic goal of Fagerholm in September 1941, when the offer of child transports came from Sweden. Fagerholm felt gratitude towards the Swedes. The risks became clear to him only in 1943. The war children are today a rather scattered and diffuse group of people. Emotionally, part of these children remained in Sweden after the war. There is no clear collective memory, only individual memories; the collective memory of the war children has partly been shaped later through the activities of the war child associations. The main difference between the children evacuated in Finland (for example from Karelia to safer areas with their families) and the war children, who were sent abroad, is that the war children lack a shared story and experience with their families. They were outsiders . The whole matter is sensitive to many of such mothers and discussing the subject has often been avoided in families. The war-time censorship has continued in families through silence and avoidance and Finnish politicians and Finnish families had to face each other on this issue after the war. The lack of all-inclusive historical research has also prevented the formation of a collective awareness among war children returned to Finland or those remaining permanently abroad.. Knowledge of historical facts will help war-children by providing an opportunity to create an all-inclusive approach to the past. Personal experiences should be regarded as part of a large historical entity shadowed by war and where many political factors were at work in both Finland and Sweden. This means strengthening of the cognitive dimension discussed in Rüsen´s all-inclusive historical approach.

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Models of Maximal Flavor Violation (MxFV) in elementary particle physics may contain at least one new scalar SU$(2)$ doublet field $\Phi_{FV} = (\eta^0,\eta^+)$ that couples the first and third generation quarks ($q_1,q_3$) via a Lagrangian term $\mathcal{L}_{FV} = \xi_{13} \Phi_{FV} q_1 q_3$. These models have a distinctive signature of same-charge top-quark pairs and evade flavor-changing limits from meson mixing measurements. Data corresponding to 2 fb$^{-1}$ collected by the CDF II detector in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV are analyzed for evidence of the MxFV signature. For a neutral scalar $\eta^0$ with $m_{\eta^0} = 200$ GeV/$c^2$ and coupling $\xi_{13}=1$, $\sim$ 11 signal events are expected over a background of $2.1 \pm 1.8$ events. Three events are observed in the data, consistent with background expectations, and limits are set on the coupling $\xi_{13}$ for $m_{\eta^0} = 180-300$ GeV/$c^2$.

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We present a search for a Higgs boson decaying to two W bosons in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb-1 collected with the CDF II detector. We find no evidence for production of a Higgs boson with mass between 110 and 200 GeV/c^2, and determine upper limits on the production cross section. For the mass of 160 GeV/c^2, where the analysis is most sensitive, the observed (expected) limit is 0.7 pb (0.9 pb) at 95% Bayesian credibility level which is 1.7 (2.2) times the standard model cross section.

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We report a measurement of the single top quark production cross section in 2.2 ~fb-1 of p-pbar collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. Candidate events are classified as signal-like by three parallel analyses which use likelihood, matrix element, and neural network discriminants. These results are combined in order to improve the sensitivity. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with the background-only model by 3.7 standard deviations with a median expected sensitivity of 4.9 standard deviations. We measure a cross section of 2.2 +0.7 -0.6(stat+sys) pb, extract the CKM matrix element value |V_{tb}|=0.88 +0.13 -0.12 (stat+sys) +- 0.07(theory), and set the limit |V_{tb}|>0.66 at the 95% C.L.

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In this thesis I examine one commonly used class of methods for the analytic approximation of cellular automata, the so-called local cluster approximations. This class subsumes the well known mean-field and pair approximations, as well as higher order generalizations of these. While a straightforward method known as Bayesian extension exists for constructing cluster approximations of arbitrary order on one-dimensional lattices (and certain other cases), for higher-dimensional systems the construction of approximations beyond the pair level becomes more complicated due to the presence of loops. In this thesis I describe the one-dimensional construction as well as a number of approximations suggested for higher-dimensional lattices, comparing them against a number of consistency criteria that such approximations could be expected to satisfy. I also outline a general variational principle for constructing consistent cluster approximations of arbitrary order with minimal bias, and show that the one-dimensional construction indeed satisfies this principle. Finally, I apply this variational principle to derive a novel consistent expression for symmetric three cell cluster frequencies as estimated from pair frequencies, and use this expression to construct a quantitatively improved pair approximation of the well-known lattice contact process on a hexagonal lattice.

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We present a measurement of the electric charge of the top quark using $\ppbar$ collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.7~fb$^{-1}$ at the CDF II detector. We reconstruct $\ttbar$ events in the lepton+jets final state and use kinematic information to determine which $b$-jet is associated with the leptonically- or hadronically-decaying $t$-quark. Soft lepton taggers are used to determine the $b$-jet flavor. Along with the charge of the $W$ boson decay lepton, this information permits the reconstruction of the top quark's electric charge. Out of 45 reconstructed events with $2.4\pm0.8$ expected background events, 29 are reconstructed as $\ttbar$ with the standard model $+$2/3 charge, whereas 16 are reconstructed as $\ttbar$ with an exotic $-4/3$ charge. This is consistent with the standard model and excludes the exotic scenario at 95\% confidence level. This is the strongest exclusion of the exotic charge scenario and the first to use soft leptons for this purpose.

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We report a search for single top quark production with the CDF II detector using 2.1 fb-1 of integrated luminosity of pbar p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. The data selected consist of events characterized by large energy imbalance in the transverse plane and hadronic jets, and no identified electrons and muons, so the sample is enriched in W -> tau nu decays. In order to suppress backgrounds, additional kinematic and topological requirements are imposed through a neural network, and at least one of the jets must be identified as a b-quark jet. We measure an excess of signal-like events in agreement with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with a model without single top quark production by 2.1 standard deviations (sigma), with a median expected sensitivity of 1.4 sigma. Assuming a top quark mass of 175 GeV/c2 and ascribing the excess to single top quark production, the cross section is measured to be 4.9+2.5-2.2(stat+syst)pb, consistent with measurements performed in independent datasets and with the standard model prediction.

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We report the observation of electroweak single top quark production in 3.2  fb-1 of pp̅ collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at √s=1.96  TeV. Candidate events in the W+jets topology with a leptonically decaying W boson are classified as signal-like by four parallel analyses based on likelihood functions, matrix elements, neural networks, and boosted decision trees. These results are combined using a super discriminant analysis based on genetically evolved neural networks in order to improve the sensitivity. This combined result is further combined with that of a search for a single top quark signal in an orthogonal sample of events with missing transverse energy plus jets and no charged lepton. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction but inconsistent with the background-only model by 5.0 standard deviations, with a median expected sensitivity in excess of 5.9 standard deviations. We measure a production cross section of 2.3-0.5+0.6(stat+sys)  pb, extract the value of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element |Vtb|=0.91-0.11+0.11(stat+sys)±0.07  (theory), and set a lower limit |Vtb|>0.71 at the 95% C.L., assuming mt=175  GeV/c2.