Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Comparative degradation of ZnO- and SnO(2)-based polycrystalline non-ohmic devices by current pulse stress

The degradation behaviour of SnO(2)-based varistors (SCNCr) due to current pulses (8/20 mu s) is reported here for the first time in comparison with the ZnO-based commercial varistors (ZnO). Puncturing and/or cracking failures were observed in ZnO-based varistors possessing inferior thermo-mechanical properties in comparison with that found in a SCNCr system free of failures. Both systems presented electric degradation related to the increase in the leakage current and decrease in the electric breakdown field, non-linear coefficient and average value of the potential barrier height. However, it was found that a more severe degradation occurred in the ZnO-based varistors concerning their non-ohmic behaviour, while in the SCNCr system, a strong non-ohmic behaviour remained after the degradation. These results indicate that the degradation in the metal oxide varistors is controlled by a defect diffusion process whose rate depends on the mobility, the concentration of meta-stable defects and the amount of electrically active interfaces. The improved behaviour of the SCNCr system is then inferred to be associated with the higher amount of electrically active interfaces (85%) and to a higher energy necessary to activate the diffusion of the specific defects.

Depositional history of sedimentary linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) in a large South American industrial coastal area (Santos Estuary, Southeastern Brazil)

This paper reports the reconstruction of the contamination history of a large South American industrial coastal area (Santos Estuary, Brazil) using linear alkylbenzenes (LABs). Three sediment cores were dated by (137)Cs Concentrations in surficial layers were comparable to the midrange concentrations reported for coastal sediments worldwide LAB concentrations increased towards the surface. indicating increased waste discharges into the estuary in recent decades. The highest concentration values occurred in the early 1970s, a time of intense industrial activity and marked population growth. The decreased LAB concentration, in the late 1970s was assumed to be the result of the world oil crisis Treatment of industrial effluents, which began in 1984, was represented by decreased LAB levels Microbial degradation of LABs may be more intense in the industrial area sediments. The results show that industrial and domestic waste discharges are a historical problem in the area. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Alternative Method for the Simultaneous Determination of Copper and Lead for Quality Control of Sugar Cane Spirit using a Nanotube-Based Sensor

The development of an electroanalytical method for simultaneous determination of copper and lead ions in sugar cane spirit (cachaca) using carbon paste electrode modified with ascorbic acid and carbon nanotubes (CPE-AaCNT) is described. Squarewave voltammetry (SWV) with anodic stripping was employed, and this technique was optimized with respect to the following parameters: frequency (50 Hz), amplitude (100 mV) and scan increment (9 mV). The analytical curves were linear in the range from 0.0900 to 7.00 mg L-1 for lead and copper. The limits of detection were 48.5 and 23.9 mu g L-1 for lead and copper, respectively. The developed method was applied to the simultaneous determination of copper and lead in five commercial samples of sugar cane spirit. The results were in good agreement with those obtained by F AAS/GF AAS (flame atomic absorption spectrometry/graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry) and showed that CPE-AaCNT can be successfully employed in the simultaneous determination of these metals in real sugar cane spirit samples.

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Estimation and diagnostics for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the heteroscedastic symmetrical nonlinear regression models (Cysneiros et al., 2010), since the random term distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under the homoscedastic skew-t nonlinear regression model. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the energy conversion efficiency in magnetic hyperthermia applications: A new perspective to analyze the departure from the linear regime

The success of magnetic hyperthermia cancer treatments rely strongly on the magnetic properties of the nanoparticles and their intricate dependence on the externally applied field. This is particularly more so as the response departs from the low field linear regime. In this paper we introduce a new parameter, referred to as the efficiency in converting electromagnetic energy into thermal energy, which is shown to be remarkably useful in the analysis of the system response, especially when the power loss is investigated as a function of the applied field amplitude. Using numerical simulations of dynamic hysteresis, through the stochastic Landau-Lifshitz model, we map in detail the efficiency as a function of all relevant parameters of the system and compare the results with simple-yet powerful-predictions based on heuristic arguments about the relaxation time. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4705392]

Quantitation of malondialdehyde in gingival crevicular fluid by a high-performance liquid chromatography-based method

Lipid peroxidation (LPO) has been associated with periodontal disease, and the evaluation of malondialdehyde (MDA) in the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF), an inflammatory exudate from the surrounding tissue of the periodontium, may be useful to clarify the role of LPO in the pathogenesis of periodontal disease. We describe the validation of a method to measure MDA in the GCF using high-performance liquid chromatography. MDA calibration curves were prepared with phosphate-buffered solution spiked with increasing known concentrations of MDA. Healthy and diseased GCF samples were collected from the same patient to avoid interindividual variability. MDA response was linear in the range measured, and excellent agreement was observed between added and detected concentrations of MDA. Samples' intra- and interday coefficients of variation were below 6.3% and 12.4%, respectively. The limit of quantitation (signal/noise = 5) was 0.03 mu M. When the validated method was applied to the GCF, excellent agreement was observed in the MDA quantitation from healthy and diseased sites, and diseased sites presented more MDA than healthy sites (P < 0.05). In this study, a validated method for MDA quantitation in GCF was established with satisfactory sensitivity, precision, and accuracy. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linear parameter varying control design for rotating systems supported by journal bearings

Linear parameter varying (LPV) control is a model-based control technique that takes into account time-varying parameters of the plant. In the case of rotating systems supported by lubricated bearings, the dynamic characteristics of the bearings change in time as a function of the rotating speed. Hence, LPV control can tackle the problem of run-up and run-down operational conditions when dynamic characteristics of the rotating system change significantly in time due to the bearings and high vibration levels occur. In this work, the LPV control design for a flexible shaft supported by plain journal bearings is presented. The model used in the LPV control design is updated from unbalance response experimental results and dynamic coefficients for the entire range of rotating speeds are obtained by numerical optimization. Experimental implementation of the designed LPV control resulted in strong reduction of vibration amplitudes when crossing the critical speed, without affecting system behavior in sub- or supercritical speeds. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design-based random permutation models with auxiliary information

We extend the random permutation model to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of a finite population mean accounting for auxiliary variables under simple random sampling without replacement (SRS) or stratified SRS. The proposed method provides a systematic design-based justification for well-known results involving common estimators derived under minimal assumptions that do not require specification of a functional relationship between the response and the auxiliary variables.

A New Method of Current Switching for Linear Wide-Range Measurement Systems

This new and general method here called overflow current switching allows a fast, continuous, and smooth transition between scales in wide-range current measurement systems, like electrometers. This is achieved, using a hydraulic analogy, by diverting only the overflow current, such that no slow element is forced to change its state during the switching. As a result, this approach practically eliminates the long dead time in low-current (picoamperes) switching. Similar to a logarithmic scale, a composition of n adjacent linear scales, like a segmented ruler, measures the current. The use of a linear wide-range system based on this technique assures fast and continuous measurement in the entire range, without blind regions during transitions and still holding suitable accuracy for many applications. A full mathematical development of the method is given. Several computer realistic simulations demonstrated the viability of the technique.

Relationship Between Regional Brain Volumes and Cognitive Performance in the Healthy Aging: An MRI Study Using Voxel-Based Morphometry

The presence of cognitive impairment is a frequent complaint among elderly individuals in the general population. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between aging-related regional gray matter (rGM) volume changes and cognitive performance in healthy elderly adults. Morphometric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures were acquired in a community-based sample of 170 cognitively-preserved subjects (66 to 75 years). This sample was drawn from the "Sao Paulo Ageing and Health" study, an epidemiological study aimed at investigating the prevalence and risk factors for Alzheimer's disease in a low income region of the city of Sao Paulo. All subjects underwent cognitive testing using a cross-culturally battery validated by the Research Group on Dementia 10/66 as well as the SKT (applied on the day of MRI scanning). Blood genotyping was performed to determine the frequency of the three apolipoprotein E allele variants (APOE epsilon 2/epsilon 3/epsilon 4) in the sample. Voxelwise linear correlation analyses between rGM volumes and cognitive test scores were performed using voxel-based morphometry, including chronological age as covariate. There were significant direct correlations between worse overall cognitive performance and rGM reductions in the right orbitofrontal cortex and parahippocampal gyrus, and also between verbal fluency scores and bilateral parahippocampal gyral volume (p < 0.05, familywise-error corrected for multiple comparisons using small volume correction). When analyses were repeated adding the presence of the APOE epsilon 4 allele as confounding covariate or excluding a minority of APOE epsilon 2 carriers, all findings retained significance. These results indicate that rGM volumes are relevant biomarkers of cognitive deficits in healthy aging individuals, most notably involving temporolimbic regions and the orbitofrontal cortex.

Experimental and Theoretical Study on the One- and Two-Photon Absorption Properties of Novel Organic Molecules Based on Phenylacetylene and Azoaromatic Moieties

This Article reports a combined experimental and theoretical analysis on the one and two-photon absorption properties of a novel class of organic molecules with a pi-conjugated backbone based on phenylacetylene (JCM874, FD43, and FD48) and azoaromatic (YB3p2S) moieties. Linear optical properties show that the phenylacetylene-based compounds exhibit strong molar absorptivity in the UV and high fluorescence quantum yield with lifetimes of approximately 2.0 ns, while the azoaromatic-compound has a strong absorption in the visible region with very low fluorescence quantum yield. The two-photon absorption was investigated employing nonlinear optical techniques and quantum chemical calculations based on the response functions formalism within the density functional theory framework. The experimental data revealed well-defined 2PA spectra with reasonable cross-section values in the visible and IR. Along the nonlinear spectra we observed two 2PA allowed bands, as well as the resonance enhancement effect due to the presence of one intermediate one-photon allowed state. Quantum chemical calculations revealed that the 2PA allowed bands correspond to transitions to states that are also one-photon allowed, indicating the relaxation of the electric-dipole selection rules. Moreover, using the theoretical results, we were able to interpret the experimental trends of the 2PA spectra. Finally, using a few-energy-level diagram, within the sum-over-essential states approach, we observed strong qualitative and quantitative correlation between experimental and theoretical results.

Linear viscoelasticity of immiscible blends: The application of creep

A new method to characterize the long-time linear relaxation mechanisms of immiscible blends based on creep experiment was developed. Small-amplitude oscillatory shear and incomplete creep/recovery experiments were combined to characterize immiscible blends of polypropylene with dispersed droplets of polystyrene. An experimental protocol was defined such that the full creep compliance function could be obtained while minimizing morphological changes. Dynamic experiments were performed to characterize the shorter time relaxation processes, and creep and recovery measurements were used to detect the longer time portions of the relaxation spectra. Extended retardation and relaxation spectra were constructed by combining these data. It was found that using this technique, very long-time relaxation peaks which were inaccessible with dynamic experiments alone could be detected. (C) 2012 The Society of Rheology. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1122/1.4720081]

Linear and nonlinear measures of fetal heart rate patterns evaluated on very short fetal magnetocardiograms

We analyzed the effectiveness of linear short- and long-term variability time domain parameters, an index of sympatho-vagal balance (SDNN/RMSSD) and entropy in differentiating fetal heart rate patterns (fHRPs) on the fetal heart rate (fHR) series of 5, 3 and 2 min duration reconstructed from 46 fetal magnetocardiograms. Gestational age (GA) varied from 21 to 38 weeks. FHRPs were classified based on the fHR standard deviation. In sleep states, we observed that vagal influence increased with GA, and entropy significantly increased (decreased) with GA (SDNN/RMSSD), demonstrating that a prevalence of vagal activity with autonomous nervous system maturation may be associated with increased sleep state complexity. In active wakefulness, we observed a significant negative (positive) correlation of short-term (long-term) variability parameters with SDNN/RMSSD. ANOVA statistics demonstrated that long-term irregularity and standard deviation of normal-to-normal beat intervals (SDNN) best differentiated among fHRPs. Our results confirm that short-and long-term variability parameters are useful to differentiate between quiet and active states, and that entropy improves the characterization of sleep states. All measures differentiated fHRPs more effectively on very short HR series, as a result of the fMCG high temporal resolution and of the intrinsic timescales of the events that originate the different fHRPs.