On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Drug-eluting beads loaded with antiangiogenic agents for chemoembolization: in vitro sunitinib loading and release and in vivo pharmacokinetics in an animal model.

PURPOSE: The combination of embolic beads with a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor that inhibits tumor vessel growth is suggested as an alternative and improvement to the current standard doxorubicin-eluting beads for use in transarterial chemoembolization. This study demonstrates the in vitro loading and release kinetics of sunitinib using commercially available embolization microspheres and evaluates the in vitro biologic efficacy on cell cultures and the resulting in vivo pharmacokinetics profiles in an animal model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DC Bead microspheres, 70-150 µm and 100-300 µm (Biocompatibles Ltd., Farnham, United Kingdom), were loaded by immersion in sunitinib solution. Drug release was measured in saline in a USP-approved flow-through apparatus and quantified by spectrophotometry. Activity after release was confirmed in cell culture. For pharmacokinetics and in vivo toxicity evaluation, New Zealand white rabbits received sunitinib either by intraarterial injection of 100-300 µm sized beads or per os. Plasma and liver tissue drug concentrations were assessed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectroscopy. RESULTS: Sunitinib loading on beads was close to complete and homogeneous. A total release of 80% in saline was measured, with similar fast-release profiles for both sphere sizes. After embolization, drug plasma levels remained below the therapeutic threshold (< 50 ng/mL), but high concentrations at 6 hours (14.9 µg/g) and 24 hours (3.4 µg/g) were found in the liver tissue. CONCLUSIONS: DC Bead microspheres of two sizes were efficiently loaded with sunitinib and displayed a fast and almost complete release in saline. High liver drug concentrations and low systemic levels indicated the potential of sunitinib-eluting beads for use in embolization.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

Selecting statistical models to study the relationship between soybean yield and soil physical properties

Statistical models allow the representation of data sets and the estimation and/or prediction of the behavior of a given variable through its interaction with the other variables involved in a phenomenon. Among other different statistical models, are the autoregressive state-space models (ARSS) and the linear regression models (LR), which allow the quantification of the relationships among soil-plant-atmosphere system variables. To compare the quality of the ARSS and LR models for the modeling of the relationships between soybean yield and soil physical properties, Akaike's Information Criterion, which provides a coefficient for the selection of the best model, was used in this study. The data sets were sampled in a Rhodic Acrudox soil, along a spatial transect with 84 points spaced 3 m apart. At each sampling point, soybean samples were collected for yield quantification. At the same site, soil penetration resistance was also measured and soil samples were collected to measure soil bulk density in the 0-0.10 m and 0.10-0.20 m layers. Results showed autocorrelation and a cross correlation structure of soybean yield and soil penetration resistance data. Soil bulk density data, however, were only autocorrelated in the 0-0.10 m layer and not cross correlated with soybean yield. The results showed the higher efficiency of the autoregressive space-state models in relation to the equivalent simple and multiple linear regression models using Akaike's Information Criterion. The resulting values were comparatively lower than the values obtained by the regression models, for all combinations of explanatory variables.

Hysteresis and avalanches in the random anisotropy Ising model

ches. The critical point is characterized by a set of critical exponents, which are consistent with the universal values proposed from the study of other simpler models.

Hysteresis and avalanches in the T=0 random field ising model with 2-spin flip dynamics

We study the nonequilibrium behavior of the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model at T=0 in the presence of a uniform external field using a two-spin-flip dynamics. The deterministic, history-dependent evolution of the system is compared with the one obtained with the standard one-spin-flip dynamics used in previous studies of the model. The change in the dynamics yields a significant suppression of coercivity, but the distribution of avalanches (in number and size) stays remarkably similar, except for the largest ones that are responsible for the jump in the saturation magnetization curve at low disorder in the thermodynamic limit. By performing a finite-size scaling study, we find strong evidence that the change in the dynamics does not modify the universality class of the disorder-induced phase transition.

Design Procedures and Field Monitoring of Submerged Barbs for Streambank Protection, June 2007

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the hydraulic performance of riprap spurs and weirs in controlling bank erosion at the Southern part of the Raccoon River upstream U.S. Highway 169 Bridge utilizing the commercially available model FESWMS and field monitoring. It was found based on a 2 year monitoring and numerical modeling that the design of structures was overall successful, including their spacing and stability. The riprap material incorporated into the structures was directly and favorably correlated to the flow transmission through the structure, or in other words, dictated the permeable nature of the structure. It was found that the permeable dikes and weirs chosen in this study created less volume of scour in the vicinity of the structure toes and thus have less risk comparatively to other impermeable structures to collapse. The fact that the structures permitted the transmission of flow through them it allowed fine sand particles to fill in the gaps of the rock interstices and thus cement and better stabilize the structures. During bank-full flows the maximum scour hole was recorded away from the structures toe and the scourhole size was directly related to the protrusion angle of the structure to the flow. It was concluded that the proposed structure inclination with respect to the main flow direction was appropriate since it provides maximum bank protection while creating the largest volume of local scour away from the structure and towards the center of the channel. Furthermore, the lowest potential for bank erosion also occurs with the present set-up design chosen by the IDOT. About 2 ft of new material was deposited in the area located between the structures for the period extending from the construction day to May 2007. Surveys obtained by sonar and the presence of vegetation indicate that new material has been added at the bank toes. Finally, the structures provided higher variability in bed topography forming resting pools, creating flow shade on the leeward side of the structure, and separation of bed substrate due to different flow conditions. Another notable environmental benefit to rock riprap weirs and dikes is the creation of resting pools, especially in year 2007 (2nd year of the project). The magnitude of these benefits to aquatic habitat has been found in the literature that is directly related to the induced scour-hole volume.

Local influence for spatial analysis of soil physical properties and soybean yield using student's t-distribution

The modeling and estimation of the parameters that define the spatial dependence structure of a regionalized variable by geostatistical methods are fundamental, since these parameters, underlying the kriging of unsampled points, allow the construction of thematic maps. One or more atypical observations in the sample data can affect the estimation of these parameters. Thus, the assessment of the combined influence of these observations by the analysis of Local Influence is essential. The purpose of this paper was to propose local influence analysis methods for the regionalized variable, given that it has n-variate Student's t-distribution, and compare it with the analysis of local influence when the same regionalized variable has n-variate normal distribution. These local influence analysis methods were applied to soil physical properties and soybean yield data of an experiment carried out in a 56.68 ha commercial field in western Paraná, Brazil. Results showed that influential values are efficiently determined with n-variate Student's t-distribution.

Soil infiltration based on bp neural network and grey relational analysis

Soil infiltration is a key link of the natural water cycle process. Studies on soil permeability are conducive for water resources assessment and estimation, runoff regulation and management, soil erosion modeling, nonpoint and point source pollution of farmland, among other aspects. The unequal influence of rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, vegetation cover, vegetation type, and slope gradient on soil cumulative infiltration was studied under simulated rainfall and different underlying surfaces. We established a six factor-model of soil cumulative infiltration by the improved back propagation (BP)-based artificial neural network algorithm with a momentum term and self-adjusting learning rate. Compared to the multiple nonlinear regression method, the stability and accuracy of the improved BP algorithm was better. Based on the improved BP model, the sensitive index of these six factors on soil cumulative infiltration was investigated. Secondly, the grey relational analysis method was used to individually study grey correlations among these six factors and soil cumulative infiltration. The results of the two methods were very similar. Rainfall duration was the most influential factor, followed by vegetation cover, vegetation type, rainfall intensity and antecedent soil moisture. The effect of slope gradient on soil cumulative infiltration was not significant.

High-resolution three-dimensional aortic magnetic resonance angiography and quantitative vessel wall characterization of different atherosclerotic stages in a rabbit model

PURPOSE: Atherosclerosis results in a considerable medical and socioeconomic impact on society. We sought to evaluate novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) angiography and vessel wall sequences to visualize and quantify different morphologic stages of atherosclerosis in a Watanabe hereditary hyperlipidemic (WHHL) rabbit model. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Aortic 3D steady-state free precession angiography and subrenal aortic 3D black-blood fast spin-echo vessel wall imaging pre- and post-Gadolinium (Gd) was performed in 14 WHHL rabbits (3 normal, 6 high-cholesterol diet, and 5 high-cholesterol diet plus endothelial denudation) on a commercial 1.5 T MR system. Angiographic lumen diameter, vessel wall thickness, signal-/contrast-to-noise analysis, total vessel area, lumen area, and vessel wall area were analyzed semiautomatically. RESULTS: Pre-Gd, both lumen and wall dimensions (total vessel area, lumen area, vessel wall area) of group 2 + 3 were significantly increased when compared with those of group 1 (all P < 0.01). Group 3 animals had significantly thicker vessel walls than groups 1 and 2 (P < 0.01), whereas angiographic lumen diameter was comparable among all groups. Post-Gd, only diseased animals of groups 2 + 3 showed a significant (>100%) signal-to-noise ratio and contrast-to-noise increase. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of novel 3D magnetic resonance angiography and high-resolution 3D vessel wall MRI enabled quantitative characterization of various atherosclerotic stages including positive arterial remodeling and Gd uptake in a WHHL rabbit model using a commercially available 1.5 T MRI system.

Field Monitoring of Curved Girder Bridges with Integral Abutments, TPF-5(169), 2014

Nationally, there are questions regarding the design, fabrication, and erection of horizontally curved steel girder bridges due to unpredicted girder displacements, fit-up, and locked-in stresses. One reason for the concerns is that up to one-quarter of steel girder bridges are being designed with horizontal curvature. There is also an urgent need to reduce bridge maintenance costs by eliminating or reducing deck joints, which can be achieved by expanding the use of integral abutments to include curved girder bridges. However, the behavior of horizontally curved bridges with integral abutments during thermal loading is not well known nor understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the behavior of horizontal curved bridges with integral abutment (IAB) and semi-integral abutment bridges (SIAB) with a specific interest in the response to changing temperatures. The long-term objective of this effort is to establish guidelines for the use of integral abutments with curved girder bridges. The primary objective of this work was to monitor and evaluate the behavior of six in-service, horizontally curved, steel-girder bridges with integral and semi-integral abutments. In addition, the influence of bridge curvature, skew and pier bearing (expansion and fixed) were also part of the study. Two monitoring systems were designed and applied to a set of four horizontally curved bridges and two straight bridges at the northeast corner of Des Moines, Iowa—one system for measuring strains and movement under long term thermal changes and one system for measuring the behavior under short term, controlled live loading. A finite element model was developed and validated against the measured strains. The model was then used to investigate the sensitivity of design calculations to curvature, skew and pier joint conditions. The general conclusions were as follows: (1) There were no measurable differences in the behavior of the horizontally curved bridges and straight bridges studied in this work under thermal effects. For preliminary member sizing of curved bridges, thermal stresses and movements in a straight bridge of the same length are a reasonable first approximation. (2) Thermal strains in integral abutment and semi-integral abutment bridges were not noticeably different. The choice between IAB and SIAB should be based on life – cycle costs (e.g., construction and maintenance). (3) An expansion bearing pier reduces the thermal stresses in the girders of the straight bridge but does not appear to reduce the stresses in the girders of the curved bridge. (4) An analysis of the bridges predicted a substantial total stress (sum of the vertical bending stress, the lateral bending stress, and the axial stress) up to 3 ksi due to temperature effects. (5) For the one curved integral abutment bridge studied at length, the stresses in the girders significantly vary with changes in skew and curvature. With a 10⁰ skew and 0.06 radians arc span length to radius ratio, the curved and skew integral abutment bridges can be designed as a straight bridge if an error in estimation of the stresses of 10% is acceptable.

Self construction, cognitive conflicts and polarization in bulimia nervosa

This study explores the cognitive structures, understood as construct systems, of patients suffering from bulimia nervosa (BN). Previous studies investigated the construct systems of disordered eaters suggesting that they had a higher distance between their construction of the self and the «ideal self», and also more rigidity. In addition to these aspects, this study explored the presence of implicative dilemmas (ID). Thirty two women who met criteria for BN and were treated in a specialized center were compared to a non clinical group composed by 32 women matched by age. All participants were assessed using Repertory Grid Technique (RGT). In BN patients it was more common (71.9%) to find IDs than in controls (18.8%). They also showed higher polarization and higher self-ideal discrepancies (even more for those with a long history of BN). The measures provided by the RGT can be useful for the assessment of self-construction and cognitive conflicts in BN patients and to appreciate their role in this disorder. In addition, this technique could be helpful for clinicians to explore the patient"s constructs system, and specially to identify IDs that could be maintaining the symptoms or hindering change in order to focus on them to facilitate improvement.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Issue review : construction status and operating costs of new corrections beds.

This issue review provides information on the Department of Corrections construction and of proposed staffing for additional beds in the prison system and community-based corrections.

Determination and Evaluation of Alternate Methods for Managing and Controlling Highway-Related Dust, TR-449, 2002

Road dust is caused by wind entraining fine material from the roadway surface and the main source of Iowa road dust is attrition of carbonate rock used as aggregate. The mechanisms of dust suppression can be considered as two processes: increasing particle size of the surface fines by agglomeration and inhibiting degradation of the coarse material. Agglomeration may occur by capillary tension in the pore water, surfactants that increase bonding between clay particles, and cements that bind the mineral matter together. Hygroscopic dust suppressants such as calcium chloride have short durations of effectiveness because capillary tension is the primary agglomeration mechanism. Somewhat more permanent methods of agglomeration result from chemicals that cement smaller particles into a mat or larger particles. The cements include lignosulfonates, resins, and asphalt products. The duration of the cements depend on their solubility and the climate. The only dust palliative that decreases aggregate degradation is shredded shingles that act as cushions between aggregate particles. It is likely that synthetic polymers also provide some protection against coarse aggregate attrition. Calcium chloride and lignosulfonates are widely used in Iowa. Both palliatives have a useful duration of about 6 months. Calcium chloride is effective with surface soils of moderate fine content and plasticity whereas lignin works best with materials that have high fine content and high plasticity indices. Bentonite appears to be effective for up to two years and works well with surface materials having low fines and plasticity and works well with limestone aggregate. Selection of appropriate dust suppressants should be based on characterization of the road surface material. Estimation of dosage rates for potential palliatives can be based on data from this report, from technical reports, information from reliable vendors, or laboratory screening tests. The selection should include economic analysis of construction and maintenance costs. The effectiveness of the treatment should be evaluated by any of the field performance measuring techniques discussed in this report. Novel dust control agents that need research for potential application in Iowa include; acidulated soybean oil (soapstock), soybean oil, ground up asphalt shingles, and foamed asphalt. New laboratory evaluation protocols to screen additives for potential effectiveness and determine dosage are needed. A modification of ASTM D 560 to estimate the freeze-thaw and wet-dry durability of Portland cement stabilized soils would be a starting point for improved laboratory testing of dust palliatives.