Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Geomodelling of a fluvial system with semi-supervised support vector regression

Fluvial deposits are a challenge for modelling flow in sub-surface reservoirs. Connectivity and continuity of permeable bodies have a major impact on fluid flow in porous media. Contemporary object-based and multipoint statistics methods face a problem of robust representation of connected structures. An alternative approach to model petrophysical properties is based on machine learning algorithm ? Support Vector Regression (SVR). Semi-supervised SVR is able to establish spatial connectivity taking into account the prior knowledge on natural similarities. SVR as a learning algorithm is robust to noise and captures dependencies from all available data. Semi-supervised SVR applied to a synthetic fluvial reservoir demonstrated robust results, which are well matched to the flow performance

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

On the Schoenberg transformations in data analysis: theory and illustrations

The class of Schoenberg transformations, embedding Euclidean distances into higher dimensional Euclidean spaces, is presented, and derived from theorems on positive definite and conditionally negative definite matrices. Original results on the arc lengths, angles and curvature of the transformations are proposed, and visualized on artificial data sets by classical multidimensional scaling. A distance-based discriminant algorithm and a robust multidimensional centroid estimate illustrate the theory, closely connected to the Gaussian kernels of Machine Learning.

Advanced Kernel Methods For Remote Sensing Image Classification

Résumé Suite aux recentes avancées technologiques, les archives d'images digitales ont connu une croissance qualitative et quantitative sans précédent. Malgré les énormes possibilités qu'elles offrent, ces avancées posent de nouvelles questions quant au traitement des masses de données saisies. Cette question est à la base de cette Thèse: les problèmes de traitement d'information digitale à très haute résolution spatiale et/ou spectrale y sont considérés en recourant à des approches d'apprentissage statistique, les méthodes à noyau. Cette Thèse étudie des problèmes de classification d'images, c'est à dire de catégorisation de pixels en un nombre réduit de classes refletant les propriétés spectrales et contextuelles des objets qu'elles représentent. L'accent est mis sur l'efficience des algorithmes, ainsi que sur leur simplicité, de manière à augmenter leur potentiel d'implementation pour les utilisateurs. De plus, le défi de cette Thèse est de rester proche des problèmes concrets des utilisateurs d'images satellite sans pour autant perdre de vue l'intéret des méthodes proposées pour le milieu du machine learning dont elles sont issues. En ce sens, ce travail joue la carte de la transdisciplinarité en maintenant un lien fort entre les deux sciences dans tous les développements proposés. Quatre modèles sont proposés: le premier répond au problème de la haute dimensionalité et de la redondance des données par un modèle optimisant les performances en classification en s'adaptant aux particularités de l'image. Ceci est rendu possible par un système de ranking des variables (les bandes) qui est optimisé en même temps que le modèle de base: ce faisant, seules les variables importantes pour résoudre le problème sont utilisées par le classifieur. Le manque d'information étiquétée et l'incertitude quant à sa pertinence pour le problème sont à la source des deux modèles suivants, basés respectivement sur l'apprentissage actif et les méthodes semi-supervisées: le premier permet d'améliorer la qualité d'un ensemble d'entraînement par interaction directe entre l'utilisateur et la machine, alors que le deuxième utilise les pixels non étiquetés pour améliorer la description des données disponibles et la robustesse du modèle. Enfin, le dernier modèle proposé considère la question plus théorique de la structure entre les outputs: l'intègration de cette source d'information, jusqu'à présent jamais considérée en télédétection, ouvre des nouveaux défis de recherche. Advanced kernel methods for remote sensing image classification Devis Tuia Institut de Géomatique et d'Analyse du Risque September 2009 Abstract The technical developments in recent years have brought the quantity and quality of digital information to an unprecedented level, as enormous archives of satellite images are available to the users. However, even if these advances open more and more possibilities in the use of digital imagery, they also rise several problems of storage and treatment. The latter is considered in this Thesis: the processing of very high spatial and spectral resolution images is treated with approaches based on data-driven algorithms relying on kernel methods. In particular, the problem of image classification, i.e. the categorization of the image's pixels into a reduced number of classes reflecting spectral and contextual properties, is studied through the different models presented. The accent is put on algorithmic efficiency and the simplicity of the approaches proposed, to avoid too complex models that would not be used by users. The major challenge of the Thesis is to remain close to concrete remote sensing problems, without losing the methodological interest from the machine learning viewpoint: in this sense, this work aims at building a bridge between the machine learning and remote sensing communities and all the models proposed have been developed keeping in mind the need for such a synergy. Four models are proposed: first, an adaptive model learning the relevant image features has been proposed to solve the problem of high dimensionality and collinearity of the image features. This model provides automatically an accurate classifier and a ranking of the relevance of the single features. The scarcity and unreliability of labeled. information were the common root of the second and third models proposed: when confronted to such problems, the user can either construct the labeled set iteratively by direct interaction with the machine or use the unlabeled data to increase robustness and quality of the description of data. Both solutions have been explored resulting into two methodological contributions, based respectively on active learning and semisupervised learning. Finally, the more theoretical issue of structured outputs has been considered in the last model, which, by integrating outputs similarity into a model, opens new challenges and opportunities for remote sensing image processing.

Automatic Prediction of Facial Trait Judgments: Appearance vs. Structural Models

Evaluating other individuals with respect to personality characteristics plays a crucial role in human relations and it is the focus of attention for research in diverse fields such as psychology and interactive computer systems. In psychology, face perception has been recognized as a key component of this evaluation system. Multiple studies suggest that observers use face information to infer personality characteristics. Interactive computer systems are trying to take advantage of these findings and apply them to increase the natural aspect of interaction and to improve the performance of interactive computer systems. Here, we experimentally test whether the automatic prediction of facial trait judgments (e.g. dominance) can be made by using the full appearance information of the face and whether a reduced representation of its structure is sufficient. We evaluate two separate approaches: a holistic representation model using the facial appearance information and a structural model constructed from the relations among facial salient points. State of the art machine learning methods are applied to a) derive a facial trait judgment model from training data and b) predict a facial trait value for any face. Furthermore, we address the issue of whether there are specific structural relations among facial points that predict perception of facial traits. Experimental results over a set of labeled data (9 different trait evaluations) and classification rules (4 rules) suggest that a) prediction of perception of facial traits is learnable by both holistic and structural approaches; b) the most reliable prediction of facial trait judgments is obtained by certain type of holistic descriptions of the face appearance; and c) for some traits such as attractiveness and extroversion, there are relationships between specific structural features and social perceptions.

Monitoring network optimisation for spatial data classification using support vector machines

The paper presents a novel method for monitoring network optimisation, based on a recent machine learning technique known as support vector machine. It is problem-oriented in the sense that it directly answers the question of whether the advised spatial location is important for the classification model. The method can be used to increase the accuracy of classification models by taking a small number of additional measurements. Traditionally, network optimisation is performed by means of the analysis of the kriging variances. The comparison of the method with the traditional approach is presented on a real case study with climate data.

Ensemble methods for environmental data modelling with support vector regression

This paper investigates the use of ensemble of predictors in order to improve the performance of spatial prediction methods. Support vector regression (SVR), a popular method from the field of statistical machine learning, is used. Several instances of SVR are combined using different data sampling schemes (bagging and boosting). Bagging shows good performance, and proves to be more computationally efficient than training a single SVR model while reducing error. Boosting, however, does not improve results on this specific problem.

How early can we predict Alzheimer's disease using computational anatomy?

Computational anatomy with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is well established as a noninvasive biomarker of Alzheimer's disease (AD); however, there is less certainty about its dependency on the staging of AD. We use classical group analyses and automated machine learning classification of standard structural MRI scans to investigate AD diagnostic accuracy from the preclinical phase to clinical dementia. Longitudinal data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were stratified into 4 groups according to the clinical status-(1) AD patients; (2) mild cognitive impairment (MCI) converters; (3) MCI nonconverters; and (4) healthy controls-and submitted to a support vector machine. The obtained classifier was significantly above the chance level (62%) for detecting AD already 4 years before conversion from MCI. Voxel-based univariate tests confirmed the plausibility of our findings detecting a distributed network of hippocampal-temporoparietal atrophy in AD patients. We also identified a subgroup of control subjects with brain structure and cognitive changes highly similar to those observed in AD. Our results indicate that computational anatomy can detect AD substantially earlier than suggested by current models. The demonstrated differential spatial pattern of atrophy between correctly and incorrectly classified AD patients challenges the assumption of a uniform pathophysiological process underlying clinically identified AD.

An approach to predicting bowing control parameter contours in violin performance

We present a machine learning approach to modeling bowing control parametercontours in violin performance. Using accurate sensing techniqueswe obtain relevant timbre-related bowing control parameters such as bowtransversal velocity, bow pressing force, and bow-bridge distance of eachperformed note. Each performed note is represented by a curve parametervector and a number of note classes are defined. The principal componentsof the data represented by the set of curve parameter vectors are obtainedfor each class. Once curve parameter vectors are expressed in the new spacedefined by the principal components, we train a model based on inductivelogic programming, able to predict curve parameter vectors used for renderingbowing controls. We evaluate the prediction results and show the potentialof the model by predicting bowing control parameter contours from anannotated input score.

Materials and supplementary materials used to teach vocabulary in the English class

This study is based on the analysis of the use of supplementary materials to teach vocabulary by second language teachers in Primary Education. The study consists of two analyses: the first one is a quantitative analysis based on 33 questionnaires answered by different second language teachers of Primary Education. The other, is a qualitative analysis in which the teacher’s subjective opinion on vocabulary learning techniques is presented. The study covers these main aspects: material use, effectiveness, children’s motivation, main criteria to teach vocabulary and the children’s role in their vocabulary learning.

On Automatic Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease based on Spontaneous Speech Analysis and Emotional Temperature

Alzheimer's disease is the most prevalent form of progressive degenerative dementia; it has a high socio-economic impact in Western countries. Therefore it is one of the most active research areas today. Alzheimer's is sometimes diagnosed by excluding other dementias, and definitive confirmation is only obtained through a post-mortem study of the brain tissue of the patient. The work presented here is part of a larger study that aims to identify novel technologies and biomarkers for early Alzheimer's disease detection, and it focuses on evaluating the suitability of a new approach for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease by non-invasive methods. The purpose is to examine, in a pilot study, the potential of applying Machine Learning algorithms to speech features obtained from suspected Alzheimer sufferers in order help diagnose this disease and determine its degree of severity. Two human capabilities relevant in communication have been analyzed for feature selection: Spontaneous Speech and Emotional Response. The experimental results obtained were very satisfactory and promising for the early diagnosis and classification of Alzheimer’s disease patients.

Application of Multi-SNP Approaches Bayesian LASSO and AUC-RF to Detect Main Effects of Inflammatory-Gene Variants Associated with Bladder Cancer Risk

The relationship between inflammation and cancer is well established in several tumor types, including bladder cancer. We performed an association study between 886 inflammatory-gene variants and bladder cancer risk in 1,047 cases and 988 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer (SBC)/EPICURO Study. A preliminary exploration with the widely used univariate logistic regression approach did not identify any significant SNP after correcting for multiple testing. We further applied two more comprehensive methods to capture the complexity of bladder cancer genetic susceptibility: Bayesian Threshold LASSO (BTL), a regularized regression method, and AUC-Random Forest, a machine-learning algorithm. Both approaches explore the joint effect of markers. BTL analysis identified a signature of 37 SNPs in 34 genes showing an association with bladder cancer. AUC-RF detected an optimal predictive subset of 56 SNPs. 13 SNPs were identified by both methods in the total population. Using resources from the Texas Bladder Cancer study we were able to replicate 30% of the SNPs assessed. The associations between inflammatory SNPs and bladder cancer were reexamined among non-smokers to eliminate the effect of tobacco, one of the strongest and most prevalent environmental risk factor for this tumor. A 9 SNP-signature was detected by BTL. Here we report, for the first time, a set of SNP in inflammatory genes jointly associated with bladder cancer risk. These results highlight the importance of the complex structure of genetic susceptibility associated with cancer risk.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.