Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Stochastic chemical kinetics and the quasi-steady-state assumption : application to the stochastic simulation algorithm and chemical master equation

Recently the application of the quasi-steady-state approximation (QSSA) to the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) was suggested for the purpose of speeding up stochastic simulations of chemical systems that involve both relatively fast and slow chemical reactions [Rao and Arkin, J. Chem. Phys. 118, 4999 (2003)] and further work has led to the nested and slow-scale SSA. Improved numerical efficiency is obtained by respecting the vastly different time scales characterizing the system and then by advancing only the slow reactions exactly, based on a suitable approximation to the fast reactions. We considerably extend these works by applying the QSSA to numerical methods for the direct solution of the chemical master equation (CME) and, in particular, to the finite state projection algorithm [Munsky and Khammash, J. Chem. Phys. 124, 044104 (2006)], in conjunction with Krylov methods. In addition, we point out some important connections to the literature on the (deterministic) total QSSA (tQSSA) and place the stochastic analogue of the QSSA within the more general framework of aggregation of Markov processes. We demonstrate the new methods on four examples: Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetics, double phosphorylation, the Goldbeter–Koshland switch, and the mitogen activated protein kinase cascade. Overall, we report dramatic improvements by applying the tQSSA to the CME solver.

An epistemic community as influencer and implementer in local government accounting in Australia

This paper adopts an epistemic community framework to explicate the dual role of epistemic communities as influencers of accounting policy within regulatory space and as implementers who effect change within the domain of accounting. The context is the adoption and implementation of fair value accounting within local government in New South Wales (NSW). The roles and functions of Australian local government are extensive, and include the development and maintenance of infrastructure, provision of recreational facilities, certain health and community services, buildings, cultural facilities, and in some cases, water and sewerage (Australian Local Government Association, 2009). The NSW state Department of Local Government (DLG) is responsible for legislation and policy development to ensure that local councils are able to deliver ‘quality services to their communities in a sustainable manner’ (DLG, 2008c). These local councils receive revenue from various sources including property rates, government grants and user-pays service provision. In July 2006 the DLG issued Circular 06-453 to councils (DLG, 2006c), mandating the staged adoption of fair value measurement of infrastructure assets. This directive followed the policy of NSW State Treasury (NSW Treasury, 2007),4 and an independent inquiry into the financial sustainability of local councils (LGSA, 2006). It was an attempt to resolve the inconsistency in public sector asset valuation in NSW Local Governments, and to provide greater usefulness and comparability of financial statements.5 The focus of this study is the mobilization of accounting change by the DLG within this wider political context. When a regulatory problem arises, those with political power seek advice from professionals with relevant skill and expertise (Potter, 2005). This paper explores the way in which professionals diffuse accounting ‘problems’ and the associated accounting solutions ‘across time and space’ (Potter, 2005, p. 277). The DLG’s fair value accounting policy emanated from a ‘regulatory space’ (Hancher and Moran, 1989)6 as a result of negotiations between many parties, including accounting and finance professionals. Operating within the local government sector, these professionals were identified by the DLG as being capable of providing helpful input. They were also responsible for the implementation of the new olicy within local councils. Accordingly they have been dentified as an pistemic community with the ability to ranslate regulatory power by changing he domain of ccounting (Potter, 2005, p. 278).7 The paper is organised as follows. The background to the LG’s decision to require the introduction of fair value accounting for infrastructure assets is explored. Following this, the method of the study is described, and the epistemic community framework outlined. In the next sections, evidence of the influencing and implementing roles of epistemic groups is provided. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the significance of these groups both within regulatory space in developing accounting regulation, and in embedding change within the domain of accounting.

A Krylov-based finite state projection algorithm for solving the chemical master equation arising in the discrete modelling of biological systems

Biochemical reactions underlying genetic regulation are often modelled as a continuous-time, discrete-state, Markov process, and the evolution of the associated probability density is described by the so-called chemical master equation (CME). However the CME is typically difficult to solve, since the state-space involved can be very large or even countably infinite. Recently a finite state projection method (FSP) that truncates the state-space was suggested and shown to be effective in an example of a model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch. However in this example, both the model and the final time at which the solution was computed, were relatively small. Presented here is a Krylov FSP algorithm based on a combination of state-space truncation and inexact matrix-vector product routines. This allows larger-scale models to be studied and solutions for larger final times to be computed in a realistic execution time. Additionally the new method computes the solution at intermediate times at virtually no extra cost, since it is derived from Krylov-type methods for computing matrix exponentials. For the purpose of comparison the new algorithm is applied to the model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch, where the original FSP was first demonstrated. Also the method is applied to a more sophisticated model of regulated transcription. Numerical results indicate that the new approach is significantly faster and extendable to larger biological models.

Accelerated leap methods for simulating discrete stochastic chemical kinetics

Biologists are increasingly conscious of the critical role that noise plays in cellular functions such as genetic regulation, often in connection with fluctuations in small numbers of key regulatory molecules. This has inspired the development of models that capture this fundamentally discrete and stochastic nature of cellular biology - most notably the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The SSA simulates a temporally homogeneous, discrete-state, continuous-time Markov process, and of course the corresponding probabilities and numbers of each molecular species must all remain positive. While accurately serving this purpose, the SSA can be computationally inefficient due to very small time stepping so faster approximations such as the Poisson and Binomial τ-leap methods have been suggested. This work places these leap methods in the context of numerical methods for the solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Poisson noise. This allows analogues of Euler-Maruyuma, Milstein and even higher order methods to be developed through the Itô-Taylor expansions as well as similar derivative-free Runge-Kutta approaches. Numerical results demonstrate that these novel methods compare favourably with existing techniques for simulating biochemical reactions by more accurately capturing crucial properties such as the mean and variance than existing methods.

Peer state assessment of TxDOT maintenance program and practices : workshop and road rally findings

In an effort to evaluate and improve their practices to ensure the future excellence of the Texas highway system, the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) sought a forum in which experts from other state departments of transportation could share their expertise. Thus, the Peer State Review of TxDOT Maintenance Practices project was organized and conducted for TxDOT by the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at The University of Texas at Austin. The goal of the project was to conduct a workshop at CTR and in the Austin District that would educate the visiting peers on TxDOT’s maintenance practices and invite their feedback. CTR and TxDOT arranged the participation of the following directors of maintenance: Steve Takigawa, CA; Roy Rissky, KS; Eric Pitts, GA; Jim Carney, MO; Jennifer Brandenburg, NC; and David Bierschbach, WA. One of the means used to capture the peer reviewers’ opinions was a carefully designed booklet of 15 questions. The peers provided TxDOT with written responses to these questions, and the oral comments made during the workshop were also captured. This information was then compiled and summarized in the following report. An examination of the peers’ comments suggests that TxDOT should use a more holistic, statewide approach to funding and planning rather than funding and planning for each district separately. Additionally, the peers stressed the importance of allocating funds based on the actual conditions of the roadways instead of on inventory. The visiting directors of maintenance also recommended continuing and proliferating programs that enhance communication, such as peer review workshops.

Corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management in transitional countries – evidence from Chinese listed firms

The objective of this thesis is to investigate whether the corporate governance practices adopted by Chinese listed firms are associated with the quality of earnings information. Based on a review of agency and institutional theory, this study develops hypotheses that predict the monitoring effectiveness of the board and the audit committee. Using a combination of univariate and multivariate analyses, the association between corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management are tested from 2004 to 2008. Through analysing the empirical results, a number of findings are summarised as below. First, board independence is weakened by the introduction of government officials as independent directors on the boards. Government officials acting as independent directors, claim that they meet the definition of independent director set by the regulation. However, they have some connection with the State, which is the controlling shareholder in listed SOEs affiliated companies. Consequently, the effect of the independent director’s expertise in constraining earnings management is mitigated as demonstrated by an insignificant association between board expertise and earnings management. An alternative explanation for the inefficiency of board independence may point to the pre-selection of independent directors by the powerful CEO. It is argued that a CEO can manipulate the board composition and choose the "desirable" independent directors to monitor themselves. Second, a number of internal mechanisms, such as board size, board activities, and the separation of the roles of the CEO and chair are found to be significantly associated with discretionary accruals. This result suggests that there are advantages in having a large and active board in the Chinese setting. This can offset the disadvantages associated with large boards, such as increased bureaucracy, and hence, increase the constraining effects of a large and resourceful board. Third, factor analysis identifies two factors: CEO power and board power. CEO power is the factor which consists of CEO duality and turnover, and board power is composed of board size and board activity. The results of CEO power show that if a Chinese listed company has CEO duality and turnover at the same time, it is more likely to have a high level of earnings management. The significant and negative relationship between board power and accruals indicate that large boards with frequent meetings can be associated with low level of earnings management. Overall, the factor analysis suggests that certain governance mechanisms complement each other to become more efficient monitors of opportunistic earnings management. A combination of board characteristics can increase the negative association with earnings management. Fourth, the insignificant results between audit committees and earnings management in Chinese listed firms suggests that the Chinese regulator should strengthen the audit committee functions. This thesis calls for listed firms to disclose more information on audit committee composition and activities, which can facilitate future research on the Chinese audit committee’s monitoring role. Fifth, the interactive results between State ownership and board characteristics show that dominant State ownership has a moderating effect on board monitoring power as the State totally controls 42% of the issued shares. The high percentage of State ownership makes it difficult for the non-controlling institutional shareholders to challenge the State’s dominant status. As a result, the association between non-controlling institutional ownership and earnings management is insignificant in most situations. Lastly, firms audited by the international Big4 have lower abnormal accruals than firms audited by domestic Chinese audit firms. In addition, the inverse U-shape relationship between audit tenure and earnings quality demonstrates the changing effects of audit quality after a certain period of appointment. Furthermore, this thesis finds that listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchanges can be an alternative governance mechanism to discipline Chinese firms to follow strict Hong Kong listing requirements. Management of Hong Kong listed companies are exposed to the scrutiny of international investors and Hong Kong regulators. This in turn reduces their chances of conducting self-interested earnings manipulation. This study is designed to fill the gap in governance literature in China that is related to earnings management. Previous research on corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management in China is not conclusive. The current research builds on previous literature and provides some meaningful implications for practitioners, regulators, academic, and international investors who have investment interests in a transitional country. The findings of this study contribute to corporate governance and earnings management literature in the context of the transitional economy of China. The use of alternative measures for earnings management yields similar results compared with the accruals models and produces additional findings.

Preventing injuries on a state-wide basis : researchers and parliamentary committees are partners in turning injury prevention and safety research into practice and policy

Context: Parliamentary committees established in Westminster parliaments, such as Queensland, provide a cross-party structure that enables them to recommend policy and legislative changes that may otherwise be difficult for one party to recommend. The overall parliamentary committee process tends to be more cooperative and less adversarial than the main chamber of parliament and, as a result, this process permits parliamentary committees to make recommendations more on the available research evidence and less on political or party considerations. Objectives: This paper considers the contributions that parliamentary committees in Queensland have made in the past in the areas of road safety, drug use as well as organ and tissue donation. The paper also discusses the importance of researchers actively engaging with parliamentary committees to ensure the best evidence based policy outcomes. Key messages: In the past, parliamentary committees have successfully facilitated important safety changes with many committee recommendations based on research results. In order to maximise the benefits of the parliamentary committee process it is essential that researchers inform committees about their work and become key stakeholders in the inquiry process. Researchers can keep committees informed by making submissions to their inquiries, responding to requests for information and appearing as witnesses at public hearings. Researchers should emphasise the key findings and implications of their research as well as considering the jurisdictional implications and political consequences. It is important that researchers understand the differences between lobbying and providing informed recommendations when interacting with committees. Discussion and conclusions: Parliamentary committees in Queensland have successfully assisted in the introduction of evidence based policy and legislation. In order to present best practice recommendations, committees rely on the evidence presented to them including the results of researchers. Actively engaging with parliamentary committees will help researchers to turn their results into practice with a corresponding decrease in injuries and fatalities. Developing an understanding of parliamentary committees, and the typical inquiry process used by these committees, will help researchers to present their research results in a manner that will encourage the adoption of their ideas by parliamentary committees, the presentation of these results as recommendations within the report and the subsequent enactment of the committee’s recommendations by the government.

Drink driving after the first offence: Characteristics of offenders who continue to drink and drive

Drink driving remains a significant problem on Australian roads, with about a quarter to a third of fatal crashes involving drivers or riders who have a BAC of 0.05 or greater. Last available data in the state of Queensland (2003) of the major factors involved in road fatalities and injuries indicated that alcohol and drugs were noted as one of the contributing factors in 38% of fatalities and 11% of all crashes, making it the highest single contributing factor to road fatalities. Until this point, there has been little information about first time offenders as a group, but it is known that offenders typically are not first time drink drivers but rather ‘first time apprehended’, in that most have engaged in drink driving in the years leading to the first offence. This paper follows 89 first time drink driving offenders who were interviewed at the time of court mention and followed up around 6 months following the court hearing. Of the offenders, 27% reported to have driven over the limit in the time between initial contact and follow up. The paper demonstrates the characteristics and offending patterns of first offenders who engaged in drink driving following conviction and those who didn’t, providing suggestions on how to target those at high risk for the behaviour and subsequent offending.

State of the art and future challenges for information literacy research

This short paper focuses on strategic issues and important research questions.

Volatile properties of particles emitted by compressed natural gas and diesel buses during steady state and transient driving modes

Volatile properties of particle emissions from four compressed natural gas (CNG) and four diesel buses were investigated under steady state and transient driving modes on a chassis dynamometer. The exhaust was diluted utilising a full-flow continuous volume sampling system and passed through a thermodenuder at controlled temperature. Particle number concentration and size distribution were measured with a condensation particle counter and a scanning mobility particle sizer, respectively. We show that, while almost all the particles emitted by the CNG buses were in the nanoparticle size range, at least 85% and 98% were removed at 100ºC and 250ºC, respectively. Closer analysis of the volatility of particles emitted during transient cycles showed that volatilisation began at around 40°C with the majority occurring by 80°C. Particles produced during hard acceleration from rest exhibited lower volatility than that produced during other times of the cycle. Based on our results and the observation of ash deposits on the walls of the tailpipes, we suggest that these non-volatile particles were composed mostly of ash from lubricating oil. Heating the diesel bus emissions to 100ºC removed ultrafine particle numbers by 69% to 82% when a nucleation mode was present and just 18% when it was not.