984 resultados para Inflation rate forecast
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Specialized glucosensing neurons are present in the hypothalamus, some of which neighbor the median eminence, where the blood-brain barrier has been reported leaky. A leaky blood-brain barrier implies high tissue glucose levels and obviates a role for endothelial glucose transporters in the control of hypothalamic glucose concentration, important in understanding the mechanisms of glucose sensing We therefore addressed the question of blood-brain barrier integrity at the hypothalamus for glucose transport by examining the brain tissue-to-plasma glucose ratio in the hypothalamus relative to other brain regions. We also examined glycogenolysis in hypothalamus because its occurrence is unlikely in the potential absence of a hypothalamus-blood interface. Across all regions the concentration of glucose was comparable at a given plasma glucose concentration and was a near linear function of plasma glucose. At steady-state, hypothalamic glucose concentration was similar to the extracellular hypothalamic glucose concentration reported by others. Hypothalamic glycogen fell at a rate of approximately 1.5 micromol/g/h and remained present in substantial amounts. We conclude for the hypothalamus, a putative primary site of brain glucose sensing that: the rate-limiting step for glucose transport into brain cells is at the blood-hypothalamus interface, and that glycogenolysis is consistent with a substantial blood -to- intracellular glucose concentration gradient.
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We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.
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This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.
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On April 27, 2007, Iowa Governor Chet Culver signed Senate File 485, a bill related to greenhouse gas emissions. Part of this bill created the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC), which consists of 23 governor-appointed members from various stakeholder groups, and 4 nonvoting, ex officio members from the General Assembly. ICCAC’s immediate responsibilities included submitting a proposal to the Governor and General Assembly that addresses policies, cost-effective strategies, and multiple scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Further, a preliminary report was submitted in January 2008, with a final proposal submitted in December 2008. In the Final Report, the Council presents two scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 90% from a 2005 baseline by the year 2050. For the 50% reduction by 2050, the Council recommends approximately a 1% reduction by 2012 and an 11% reduction by 2020. For the 90% reduction scenario, the Council recommends a 3% reduction by 2012 and a 22% reduction 2020. These interim targets were based on a simple extrapolation assuming a linear rate of reduction between now and 2050. In providing these scenarios for your consideration, ICCAC approved 56 policy options from a large number of possibilities. There are more than enough options to reach the interim and final emission targets in both the 50% and 90% reduction scenarios. Direct costs and cost savings of these policy options were also evaluated with the help of The Center for Climate Strategies, who facilitated the process and provided technical assistance throughout the entire process, and who developed the Iowa Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast in close consultation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) and many Council and Sub-Committee members. About half of the policy options presented in this report will not only reduce GHG emissions but are highly cost-effective and will save Iowans money. Still other options may require significant investment but will create jobs, stimulate energy independence, and advance future regional or federal GHG programs.
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Analiza el estado de la fisiología del fitoplancton de las aguas costeras cercanas a Perú
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We propose a new family of density functions that possess both flexibilityand closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, makingthem particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation.Our methods generate forecasts that improve on standard methods based on AR-ARCH models relying on normal or Student's t-distributional assumptions.
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This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.
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In a closed economy context there is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objects of monetary policy. Moving to an open economy context gives rise to the coexistence of two measures of inflation: domestic inflation (DI) and consumer price inflation (CPI). Which one of the two measures should be the target variable? This is the question addressed in this paper. In particular, I use a small open economy model to show that once sticky wages indexed to past CPI inflation are introduced, a complete inward looking monetary policy is no more optimal. I first, derive a loss function from a secondorder approximation of the utility function and then, I compute the fully optimalmonetary policy under commitment. Then, I use the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to compare the performance of different monetary policy rules. The main result is that once a positive degree of indexation is introduced in the model the rule performing better (among the Taylor type rules considered) is the one targeting wage inflation and CPI inflation. Moreover this rule delivers results very close to the one obtained under the fully optimal monetary policy with commitment.
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In this paper we study the relationship between labor market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labor institutions (labor adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigitidy) and social preferences regarding inflation, employment, and real wages. We also calibrate our model tocompute how the change in social welfare brought about by giving up monetary policy as a result of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) depends on institutions and preferences. We then use the calibrated model to analyze how EMU affects the incentives for labor market reform, both for reformsthat increase the economy's adjustment potential and for those that affect the long-run unemployment rate.
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Mainly because it is possible to live without it, the spleen has always been considered a secondary and mysterious organ. However, recent observations have revealed new unsuspected functions for this organ whose patho-physiological importance should be reconsidered. Much less known than the hypersplenism, the hyposplenism corresponds historically to the loss or the insufficiency of the two principal functions of spleen: the filtration of faded or senescent elements from the blood and the fight against infections. In this article, after a short recall of the physiological functions of spleen, three innovations relating to hyposplenism will be explored: the vascular complications, the loss of the splenic pool of regenerating monocytes and the loss of the splenic pool of pluripotent mesenchymal stem cell.
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The most widely used formula for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in children is the Schwartz formula. It was revised in 2009 using iohexol clearances with measured GFR (mGFR) ranging between 15 and 75 ml/min × 1.73 m(2). Here we assessed the accuracy of the Schwartz formula using the inulin clearance (iGFR) method to evaluate its accuracy for children with less renal impairment comparing 551 iGFRs of 392 children with their Schwartz eGFRs. Serum creatinine was measured using the compensated Jaffe method. In order to find the best relationship between iGFR and eGFR, a linear quadratic regression model was fitted and a more accurate formula was derived. This quadratic formula was: 0.68 × (Height (cm)/serum creatinine (mg/dl))-0.0008 × (height (cm)/serum creatinine (mg/dl))(2)+0.48 × age (years)-(21.53 in males or 25.68 in females). This formula was validated using a split-half cross-validation technique and also externally validated with a new cohort of 127 children. Results show that the Schwartz formula is accurate until a height (Ht)/serum creatinine value of 251, corresponding to an iGFR of 103 ml/min × 1.73 m(2), but significantly unreliable for higher values. For an accuracy of 20 percent, the quadratic formula was significantly better than the Schwartz formula for all patients and for patients with a Ht/serum creatinine of 251 or greater. Thus, the new quadratic formula could replace the revised Schwartz formula, which is accurate for children with moderate renal failure but not for those with less renal impairment or hyperfiltration.
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Summary : With regard to exercise metabolism, lactate was long considered as a dead-end waste product responsible for muscle fatigue and a limiting factor for motor performance. However, a large body of evidence clearly indicates that lactate is an energy efficient metabolite able to link the glycolytic pathway with aerobic metabolism and has endocrine-like actions, rather than to be a dead-end waste product. Lactate metabolism is also known to be quickly upregulated by regular endurance training and is thought to be related to exercise performance. However, to what extent its modulation can increase exercise performance in already endurance-trained subjects is unknown. The general hypothesis of this work was therefore that increasing either lactate metabolic clearance rate or lactate availability could, in turn, increase endurance performance. The first study (Study I) aimed at increasing the lactate clearance rate by means of assumed interaction effects of endurance training and hypoxia on lactate metabolism and endurance performance. Although this study did not demonstrate any interaction of training and hypoxia on both lactate metabolism and endurance performance, a significant deleterious effect of endurance training in hypoxia was shown on glucose homeostasis. The methods used to determine lactate kinetics during exercise exhibited some limitations, and the second study did delineate some of the issues raised (Study 2). The third study (Study 3) investigated the metabolic and performance effects of increasing plasma lactate production and availability during prolonged exercise in the fed state. A nutritional intervention was used for this purpose: part of glucose feedings ingested during the control condition was substituted by fructose. The results of this study showed a significant increase of lactate turnover rate, quantified the metabolic fate of fructose; and demonstrated a significant decrease of lipid oxidation and glycogen breakdown. In contrast, endurance performance appeared to be unmodified by this dietary intervention, being at odds with recent reports. Altogether the results of this thesis suggest that in endurance athletes the relationship between endurance performance and lactate turnover rate remains unclear. Nonetheless, the result of the present study raises questions and opens perspectives on the rationale of using hypoxia as a therapeutic aid for the treatment of insulin resistance. Moreover, the results of the second study open perspectives on the role of lactate as an intermediate metabolite and its modulatory effects on substrate metabolism during exercise. Additionally it is suggested that the simple nutritional intervention used in the third study can be of interest in the investigation on the aforementioned roles of lactate. Résumé : Lorsque le lactate est évoqué en rapport avec l'exercice, il est souvent considéré comme un déchet métabolique responsable de l'acidose métabolique, de la fatigue musculaire ou encore comme un facteur limitant de la performance. Or la littérature montre clairement que le lactate se révèle être plutôt un métabolite utilisé efficacement par de nombreux tissus par les voies oxydatives et, ainsi, il peut être considéré comme un lien entre le métabolisme glycolytique et le métabolisme oxydatif. De plus on lui prête des propriétés endocrines. Il est connu que l'entraînement d'endurance accroît rapidement le métabolisme du lactate, et il est suggéré que la performance d'endurance est liée à son métabolisme. Toutefois la relation entre le taux de renouvellement du lactate et la performance d'endurance est peu claire, et, de même, de quelle manière la modulation de son métabolisme peut influencer cette dernière. Le but de cette thèse était en conséquence d'investiguer de quelle manière et à quel degré l'augmentation du métabolisme du lactate, par l'augmentation de sa clearance et de son turnover, pouvait à son tour améliorer la performance d'endurance de sujets entraînés. L'objectif de la première étude a été d'augmenter la clearance du lactate par le biais d'un entraînement en conditions hypoxiques chez des cyclistes d'endurance. Basé sur la littérature scientifique existante, on a fait l'hypothèse que l'entraînement d'endurance et l'hypoxie exerceraient un effet synergétique sur le métabolisme du lactate et sur la performance, ce qui permettrait de montrer des relations entre performance et métabolisme du lactate. Les résultats de cette étude n'ont montré aucun effet synergique sur la performance ou le métabolisme du lactate. Toutefois, un effet délétère sur le métabolisme du glucose a été démontré. Quelques limitations de la méthode employée pour la mesure du métabolisme du lactate ont été soulevées, et partiellement résolues dans la seconde étude de ce travail, qui avait pour but d'évaluer la sensibilité du modèle pharmacodynamique utilisé pour le calcul du turnover du lactate. La troisième étude a investigué l'effet d'une augmentation de la lactatémie sur le métabolisme des substrats et sur la performance par une intervention nutritionnelle substituant une partie de glucose ingéré pendant l'exercice par du fructose. Les résultats montrent que les composants dynamiques du métabolisme du lactate sont significativement augmentés en présence de fructose, et que les oxydations de graisse et de glycogène sont significativement diminuées. Toutefois aucun effet sur la performance n'a été démontré. Les résultats de ces études montrent que la relation entre le métabolisme du lactate et la performance reste peu claire. Les résultats délétères de la première étude laissent envisager des pistes de travail, étant donné que l'entraînement en hypoxie est considéré comme outil thérapeutique dans le traitement de pathologies liées à la résistance à l'insuline. De plus les résultats de la troisième étude ouvrent des perspectives de travail quant au rôle du lactate comme intermédiaire métabolique durant l'exercice ainsi que sur ses effets directs sur le métabolisme. Ils suggèrent de plus que la manipulation nutritionnelle simple qui a été utilisée se révèle être un outil prometteur dans l'étude des rôles et effets métaboliques que peut revêtir le lactate durant l'exercice.
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More knowledge on the reasons for refusal of the influenza vaccine in elderly patients is essential to target groups for additional information, and hence improve coverage rate. The objective of the present study was to describe precisely the true motives for refusal. All patients aged over 64 who attended the Medical Outpatient Clinic, University of Lausanne, or their private practitioner's office during the 1999 and 2000 vaccination periods were included. Each patient was informed on influenza and its complications, as well as on the need for vaccination, its efficacy and adverse events. The vaccination was then proposed. In case of refusal, the reasons were investigated with an open question. Out of 1398 patients, 148 (12%) refused the vaccination. The main reasons for refusal were the perception of being in good health (16%), of not being susceptible to influenza (15%), of not having had the influenza vaccine in the past (15%), of having had a bad experience either personally or a relative (15%), and the uselessness of the vaccine (10%). Seventeen percent gave miscellaneous reasons and 12% no reason at all for refusal. Little epidemiological knowledge and resistance to change appear to be the major obstacles for wide acceptance of the vaccine by the elderly.