Demora média no tratamento da pneumonia adquirida na comunidade : estudo sobre os hospitais públicos portugueses entre 2009 e 2011

RESUMO - Contexto: O presente estudo teve como objetivo apurar a demora média (DM) em doentes admitidos com pneumonia adquirida de comunidade (PAC), nos hospitais públicos portugueses, que tiveram alta durante os anos de 2009, 2010 e 2011, identificar se esta é influenciada por um grupo de fatores selecionados para o efeito e determinar se existe margem para a reduzir nos hospitais com uma DM mais elevada, através da comparação da mesma com as respetivas taxas de readmissão até 30 dias após a alta. Metodologia: Para responder aos objetivos definidos recorreu-se à base de dado dos resumos de alta, referente aos anos de 2009, 2010 e 2011, tendo-se selecionado, para o efeito, todos os episódios de internamento com diagnóstico de admissão de PAC. O estudo considerou como medidas “chave” a DM e a taxa de readmissão até 30 dias após alta. Para identificar a influência de um conjunto de fatores na duração de internamento utilizaram-se duas abordagens: análise descritiva dos dados e análise estatística dos dados, com recurso a uma Regressão Linear Múltipla. Numa última fase e com recurso à análise descritiva dos resultados obtidos, procedeu-se à comparação da taxa de readmissão até 30 dias após alta, por hospital, com as DM de internamento que mais se distanciaram das DM nacional e corrigida da população em estudo. Resultados: Constatou-se que a no tratamento da PAC, em Portugal, entre 2009 e 2011, não sofreu em termos globais grandes oscilações, tendo registado um valor de 9,47 dias nos três anos em análise. Concluiu-se ainda existir uma elevada variabilidade da DM entre hospitais e por hospital. Apesar das limitações identificadas verificou-se que os fatores idade, sexo, quantidade de diagnósticos adicionais, quantidade de procedimentos, destino após alta e tipo de hospital têm influência sobre a duração de internamento dos doentes admitidos com PAC. Por fim conclui-se que os cinco hospitais com DM mais baixa apresentam, de uma forma geral e com exceção do hospital 44, uma taxa de readmissão até 30 dias após alta inferior aos hospitais com DM mais elevada. Conclusão: Os resultados apurados apontam no sentido de existir margem para reduzir a DM no tratamento da PAC, nos hospitais que registaram valores mais elevados entre 2009 e 2011, permitindo que os mesmos obtenham resultados mais custo-efetivos sem piorar os resultados em saúde, medidos pela taxa de readmissões até 30 dias após a alta e, simultaneamente garantindo que a qualidade dos cuidados prestados e a segurança do doente se mantêm nos níveis desejados e exigidos. Sugere-se, no entanto, que em estudos futuros se detalhem algumas das matérias abordadas neste estudo com o objetivo de completar ou corroborar os resultados apresentados.

Social-media monitoring for cold-start recommendations

Generating personalized movie recommendations to users is a problem that most commonly relies on user-movie ratings. These ratings are generally used either to understand the user preferences or to recommend movies that users with similar rating patterns have rated highly. However, movie recommenders are often subject to the Cold-Start problem: new movies have not been rated by anyone, so, they will not be recommended to anyone; likewise, the preferences of new users who have not rated any movie cannot be learned. In parallel, Social-Media platforms, such as Twitter, collect great amounts of user feedback on movies, as these are very popular nowadays. This thesis proposes to explore feedback shared on Twitter to predict the popularity of new movies and show how it can be used to tackle the Cold-Start problem. It also proposes, at a finer grain, to explore the reputation of directors and actors on IMDb to tackle the Cold-Start problem. To assess these aspects, a Reputation-enhanced Recommendation Algorithm is implemented and evaluated on a crawled IMDb dataset with previous user ratings of old movies,together with Twitter data crawled from January 2014 to March 2014, to recommend 60 movies affected by the Cold-Start problem. Twitter revealed to be a strong reputation predictor, and the Reputation-enhanced Recommendation Algorithm improved over several baseline methods. Additionally, the algorithm also proved to be useful when recommending movies in an extreme Cold-Start scenario, where both new movies and users are affected by the Cold-Start problem.

Flood resilient housing recovery models: a theoretical case study in Maldives

Natural disasters are events that cause general and widespread destruction of the built environment and are becoming increasingly recurrent. They are a product of vulnerability and community exposure to natural hazards, generating a multitude of social, economic and cultural issues of which the loss of housing and the subsequent need for shelter is one of its major consequences. Nowadays, numerous factors contribute to increased vulnerability and exposure to natural disasters such as climate change with its impacts felt across the globe and which is currently seen as a worldwide threat to the built environment. The abandonment of disaster-affected areas can also push populations to regions where natural hazards are felt more severely. Although several actors in the post-disaster scenario provide for shelter needs and recovery programs, housing is often inadequate and unable to resist the effects of future natural hazards. Resilient housing is commonly not addressed due to the urgency in sheltering affected populations. However, by neglecting risks of exposure in construction, houses become vulnerable and are likely to be damaged or destroyed in future natural hazard events. That being said it becomes fundamental to include resilience criteria, when it comes to housing, which in turn will allow new houses to better withstand the passage of time and natural disasters, in the safest way possible. This master thesis is intended to provide guiding principles to take towards housing recovery after natural disasters, particularly in the form of flood resilient construction, considering floods are responsible for the largest number of natural disasters. To this purpose, the main structures that house affected populations were identified and analyzed in depth. After assessing the risks and damages that flood events can cause in housing, a methodology was proposed for flood resilient housing models, in which there were identified key criteria that housing should meet. The same methodology is based in the US Federal Emergency Management Agency requirements and recommendations in accordance to specific flood zones. Finally, a case study in Maldives – one of the most vulnerable countries to sea level rise resulting from climate change – has been analyzed in light of housing recovery in a post-disaster induced scenario. This analysis was carried out by using the proposed methodology with the intent of assessing the resilience of the newly built housing to floods in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

Social impact bond feasibility study: Children and youth at risk: the Projecto Família program

Social impact bonds are an increasingly popular method of unlocking typical social investment barriers and fuelling social innovation. This feasibility study aims to understand whether a social impact bond is a suitable tool for decreasing unnecessary foster care placements in Portugal, which have been proven to cause significant social and financial damage to societies. This research question is answered through a financial model which combines the costs of this social problem with Projecto Família’s intervention model, a leading intensive family preservation service. Main findings suggest using SIB funding for a 5-year project with the goal of generating the proper impact measurement metrics lacking in the field.

Contraexemplos e raciocínio dedutivo

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Improving the early diagnostic of prostate cancer by multiple biomarker detection with new biosensing devices

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common form of cancer in men, in Europe (World Health Organization data). The most recent statistics, in Portuguese territory, confirm this scenario, which states that about 50% of Portuguese men may suffer from prostate cancer and 15% of these will die from this condition. Its early detection is therefore fundamental. This is currently being done by Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening in urine but false positive and negative results are quite often obtained and many patients are sent to unnecessary biopsy procedures. This early detection protocol may be improved, by the development of point-of-care cancer detection devices, not only to PSA but also to other biomarkers recently identified. Thus, the present work aims to screen several biomarkers in cultured human prostate cell lines, serum and urine samples, developing low cost sensors based on new synthetic biomaterials. Biomarkers considered in this study are the following: prostate specific antigen (PSA), annexin A3 (ANXA3), microseminoprotein-beta (MSMB) and sarcosine (SAR). The biomarker recognition may occurs by means of molecularly imprinted polymers (MIP), which are a kind of plastic antibodies, and enzymatic approaches. The growth of a rigid polymer, chemically stable, using the biomarker as a template allows the synthesis of the plastic antibody. MIPs show high sensitivity/selectivity and present much longer stability and much lower price than natural antibodies. This nanostructured material was prepared on a carbon solid. The interaction between the biomarker and the sensing-material produces electrical signals generating quantitative or semi-quantitative data. These devices allow inexpensive and portable detection in point-of-care testing.

Optimization of production of anti-cancer vaccines based on dendritic cells

Cancer remains as one of the top killing diseases in first world countries. It’s not a single, but a set of various diseases for which different treatment approaches have been taken over the years. Cancer immunotherapy comes as a “new” breath on cancer treatment, taking use of the patients’ immune system to induce anti-cancer responses. Dendritic Cell (DC) vaccines use the extraordinary capacity of DCs’ antigen presentation so that specific T cell responses may be generated against cancer. In this work, we report the ex vivo generation of DCs from precursors isolated from clinical-grade cryopreserved umbilical cord blood (UCB) samples. After the thawing protocol for cryopreserved samples was optimized, the generation of DCs from CD14+ monocytes, i.e., moDCs, or CD34+ hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), i.e, CD34-derived DCs, was followed and their phenotype and function evaluated. Functional testing included the ability to respond to maturation stimuli (including enzymatic removal of surface sialic acids), Ovalbumin-FITC endocytic capacity, cytokine secretion and T cell priming ability. In order to evaluate the feasibility of using DCs derived from UCB precursors to induce immune responses, they were compared to peripheral blood (PB) moDCs. We observed an increased endocytosis capacity after moDCs were differentiated from monocyte precursors, but almost 10-fold lower than that of PB moDCs. Maturation markers were absent, low levels of inflammatory cytokines were seen and T cell stimulatory capacity was reduced. Sialidase enzymatic treatment was able to mature these cells, diminishing endocytosis and promoting higher T cell stimulation. CD34-derived DCs showed higher capacity for both maturation and endocytic capacity than moDCs. Although much more information was acquired from moDCs than from CD34-derived DCs, we conclude the last as probably the best suited for generating an immune response against cancer, but of course much more research has to be performed.

Historic and potential technology transition paths of grid battery storage: Co-evolution of energy grid, electric mobility and batteries

Scarcity of fuels, changes in environmental policy and in society increased the interest in generating electric energy from renewable energy sources (RES) for a sustainable energy supply in the future. The main problem of RES as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of this transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output. This results inter alia in an increased demand of backup technologies as batteries to assure electricity system safety. The diffusion of energy storage technologies is highly dependent on the energy system and transport transition pathways which might lead to a replacement or reconfiguration of embedded socio-technical practices and regimes (by creating new standards or dominant designs, changing regulations, infrastructure and user patterns). The success of this technology is dependent on hardly predictable future technical advances, actor preferences, development of competing technologies and designs, diverging interests of actors, future cost efficiencies, environmental performance, the evolution of market demand and design and evolution of our society.

Sol-gel entrapped biosystems: enzyme(s) and whole cells

In this work two different procedures to utilize the sol-gel technology were applied to immobilize/encapsulate enzymes and living cells. CO2 has reached levels in the atmosphere that make it a pollutant. New methods to utilize this gas to obtain products of added value can be very important, both from an environmentally point of view and from an economic standpoint. The first goal of this work was to study the first reaction of a sequential, three-step, enzymatic process that carries out the conversion of CO2 to methanol. Of the three oxidoreductases involved, our focus was on formate dehydrogenase (FateDH) that converts CO2 to formate. This reaction requires the presence of the cofactor β-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide in reduced form (NADH). The cofactor is expensive and unstable. Our experiments were directed towards generating NADH from its oxidized form (NAD+), using glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH). The formation of NADH from NAD+ in aqueous medium was studied with both free and sol-gel entrapped GDH. This reaction was then followed by the conversion of CO2 to formate, catalysed by free or sol-gel entrapped FateDH. The quantification of NADH/NAD+ was made using UV/Vis spectroscopy. Our results showed that it was possible to couple the GDH-catalyzed generation of the cofactor NADH with the FateDH-catalyzed conversion of CO2, as confirmed by the detection of formate in the medium, using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The immobilization of living cells can be advantageous from the standpoint of ease of recovery, reutilization and physical separation from the medium. Also dead cells may not always exhibit enzymatic activities found with living cells. In this work cell encapsulation was performed using Escherichia coli bacteria. To reduce toxicity for living organisms, the sol-gel method was different than for enzymes, and involved the use of aqueous-based precursors. Initial encapsulation experiments and viability tests were carried out with E. coli K12. Our results showed that sol-gel entrapment of the cells was achieved, and that cell viability could be increased with additives, namely betaine that led to greater viability improvement and was selected for further studies. For an approach to “in-cell” Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) experiments, the expression of the protein ctCBM11 was performed in E. coli BL21. It was possible to obtain an NMR signal from the entrapped cells, a considerable proportion of which remained alive after the NMR experiments. However, it was not possible to obtain a distinctive NMR signal from the target protein to distinguish it from the other proteins in the cell.

Cell functional enviromics: applications to Pichia pastoris

The present PhD thesis develops the cell functional enviromics (CFE) method to investigate the relationship between environment and cellular physiology. CFE may be defined as the envirome-wide cellular function reconstruction through the collection and systems-level analysis of dynamic envirome data. Throughout the thesis, CFE is illustrated by two main applications to cultures of a constitutive P. pastoris X33 strain expressing a scFv antibody fragment. The first application addresses the challenge of culture media development. A dataset was built from 26 shake flask experiments, with variations in trace elements concentrations and basal medium dilution based on the standard BSM+PTM1. Protein yield showed high sensitivity to culture medium variations, while biomass was essentially determined by BSM dilution. High scFv yield was associated with high overall metabolic fluxes through central carbon pathways concomitantly with a relative shift of carbon flux from biosynthetic towards energy-generating pathways. CFE identified three cellular functions (growth, energy generation and by-product formation) that together described 98.8% of the variance in observed fluxes. Analyses of how medium factors relate to identified cellular functions showed iron and manganese at concentrations close to PTM1 inhibit overall metabolic activity. The second application addresses bioreactor operation. Pilot 50 L fed-batch cultivations, followed by 1H-NMR exometabolite profiling, allowed the acquisition of data for 21 environmental factors over time. CFE identified five major metabolic pathway groups that are frequently activated by the environment. The resulting functional enviromics map may serve as template for future optimization of media composition and feeding strategies for Pichia pastoris. The present PhD thesis is a step forward towards establishing the foundations of CFE that is still at its infancy. The methods developed herein are a contribution for changing the culture media and process development paradigm towards a holistic and systematic discipline in the future.

In Search of the Origins of Modernism: Venice and the Crisis of Classical Architecture in the mid-eighteenth century

This paper attempts to prove that in the years 1735 to 1755 Venice was the birthplace and cradle of Modern architectural theory, generating a major crisis in classical architecture traditionally based on the Vitruvian assumption that it imitates early wooden structures in stone or in marble. According to its rationalist critics such as the Venetian Observant Franciscan friar and architectural theorist Carlo Lodoli (1690-1761) and his nineteenth-century followers, classical architecture is singularly deceptive and not true to the nature of materials, in other words, dishonest and fallacious. This questioning did not emanate from practising architects, but from Lodoli himself– a philosopher and educator of the Venetian patriciate – who had not been trained as an architect. The roots of this crisis lay in a new approach to architecture stemming from the new rationalist philosophy of the Enlightenment age with its emphasis on reason and universal criticism.

Prevenção terciária em saúde mental : novas respostas em Portugal

RESUMO - Apresenta-se a caracterização e a descrição das novas respostas, bem como dos dispositivos que as permitiram organizar, quanto à prevenção terciária em saúde mental em Portugal. Detalha-se a Região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo por ser a que mais estruturas criou e que foi alvo do estudo das autoras. Até ao final de 2001 beneficiavam 754 pessoas desta oferta de serviços no nosso país, das quais 473 na Região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. A maior parte destes beneficiários, 299, participa em actividades de fórum sócio-ocupacional, estando 99 pessoas inseridas em estruturas residenciais. Daí que se entenda que houve uma melhoria quanto à cobertura de necessidades em termos de prevenção terciária/ reabilitação no nosso país. Considera-se, contudo, que ainda muito está por fazer, uma vez que se continua muito aquém dos ratios de oferta de serviços internacionalmente recomendados. Considera-se desejável que se alargue e aprofunde este projecto, enquadrado com mais rigor em termos de diagnóstico de necessidades nacionais e com uma coordenação mais centralizada que potencie uma melhor gestão do seu quadro de exigências.

Efectividade e eficiência: médicos, gestores, informação e bom senso

RESUMO - Num contexto de escassez de recursos, agravado pelo aumento da procura de cuidados de saúde e pelo custo do imperativo tecnológico, muitas vezes erroneamente confundido com imperativo ético, a procura da eficiência é cada vez mais relevante. Para que esta se atinja e mantenha é preciso um conhecimento profundo dos efeitos das medidas eficazes, a verdadeira efectividade, numa perspectiva sistémica, o que implica uma partilha de saberes e acções concertadas entre médicos e gestores. A lógica económica não substitui o juízo clínico, mas reforça a necessidade de compatibilizar as intervenções úteis com o custo pessoal e social exigido. Precisa-se de boa informação que gere conhecimento e do insubstituível bom senso.

Learning domain-specific sentiment lexicons with applications to recommender systems

Search is now going beyond looking for factual information, and people wish to search for the opinions of others to help them in their own decision-making. Sentiment expressions or opinion expressions are used by users to express their opinion and embody important pieces of information, particularly in online commerce. The main problem that the present dissertation addresses is how to model text to find meaningful words that express a sentiment. In this context, I investigate the viability of automatically generating a sentiment lexicon for opinion retrieval and sentiment classification applications. For this research objective we propose to capture sentiment words that are derived from online users’ reviews. In this approach, we tackle a major challenge in sentiment analysis which is the detection of words that express subjective preference and domain-specific sentiment words such as jargon. To this aim we present a fully generative method that automatically learns a domain-specific lexicon and is fully independent of external sources. Sentiment lexicons can be applied in a broad set of applications, however popular recommendation algorithms have somehow been disconnected from sentiment analysis. Therefore, we present a study that explores the viability of applying sentiment analysis techniques to infer ratings in a recommendation algorithm. Furthermore, entities’ reputation is intrinsically associated with sentiment words that have a positive or negative relation with those entities. Hence, is provided a study that observes the viability of using a domain-specific lexicon to compute entities reputation. Finally, a recommendation system algorithm is improved with the use of sentiment-based ratings and entities reputation.