Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

SNM Guide

This is a guide that explains how to use software that implements the simulated nonparametric moments (SNM) estimator proposed by Creel and Kristensen (2009). The guide shows how results of that paper may easily be replicated, and explains how to install and use the software for estimation of simulable econometric models.

Aspects of immunity for the AMA-1 family of molecules in humans and non-human primates malarias

The apical membrane antigen (AMA-1) family of malaria merozoite proteins is characterised by a high degree of inter-species conservation. Evidence that the protein (PK66/AMA-1) from the simian parasite Plasmodium knowlesi was protective in rhesus monkeys suggested that the 83kDa P. falciparum equivalent (PF83/AMA-1) should be investigated for protective effects in humans. Here we briefly review pertinent comparative data, and describe the use of an eukaryotic full length recombinant PF83/AMA-1 molecule to develop a sensitive ELISA for the determination of serological responses in endemic populations. The assay has revealed surprisingly high levels of humoral response to this quantitatively minor antigen. We also show that PK66/AMA-1 inhibitory mAb's are active against merozoites subsequent to release from schizont-infected red cells, further implicating AMA-1 molecules in red cell invasion.

Avaluació de la capacitat de segrest de carboni d'un sòl restaurat amb fangs de depuradora: paper de les propietats físiques del sòl

S’ha estudiat el grau de protecció física del carboni dins d’agregats de diferents mides en un sòl d’una pedrera restaurada fa 17 anys amb terres adobades amb fangs de depuradora, i s’ha interpretat el seu paper en el context del segrest de carboni en el sòl. La metodologia aplicada es basa en la d’humitejament ràpid dels agregats del sòl per immersió en aigua (Le Bissonnais, 1996), que simula l’estabilitat d'un sòl sec que es veu sotmès a processos tals com la inundació local o saturació ràpida. També s’ha determinat la quantitat de carboni oxidable present en els agregats del sòl amb el mètode de Nelson i Sommers (1982). Els resultats han mostrat que l’adobat amb fangs de depuradora contribueix a augmentar el contingut de carboni orgànic en els agregats del sòl i n’estimula el segrest a mitjà termini (unes 10 tones ha-1 en 17 anys), aportant estabilitat al sòl i protegint físicament el carboni orgànic dins dels agregats de mida major (5-2 mm). A més s’ha constatat que per determinar l’estabilitat del carboni segrestat en el sòl cal conèixer com es distribueix entre les diferents mides d’agregats. Finalment, l’augment del segrest de carboni en el sòl propiciat per l’aplicació dels fangs de depuradora li dóna més capacitat per fixar CO2 atmosfèric.

Molecular aspects of Schistosoma mansoni female maturation

Incubation of total protein extracts of Schistosoma mansoni with 3H 17-beta-estradiol and 20-hydroxyecdysone, revealed steroid binding proteins in both, male and female worms. The interaction of nuclear proteins with restriction fragments of the gender and stage-specific gene F-10 was investigated using the "Band-Shift" technique. Distinct male and female nuclear proteins bound to the fragments of this gene. Among the nuclear proteins, only those rich in cysteine residues bound to DNA. In vitro incubation of live worms with the estrogen antagonist Tamoxifen, altered the pattern of the DNA binding proteins, producing in females, a band profile similar to that obtained with male worm protein extracts. When Tamoxifen was injected into schistosome infected mice, the eggs produced by females presented an abnormal morphology, compatible with non-viable eggs. These results suggest that the regulation of transcription of the F-10 gene might involve steroid receptors.

Indirect likelihood inference

Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let Zn be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of Zn. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a computationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

Direct methods for detecting picorna-like virus from dead and alive Triatomine insects

In this work we report four different destructive and non-destructive methods for detecting picorna-like virus particles in triatomines. The methods are based on direct observation under transmission electron microscope and they consist of four ways to prepare samples of presumable infected material. The samples are prepared processing dead or alive insect parts, or even dry or fresh insect feces. The methods can be used as analytical or preparative techniques, for quantifying virus infection and checking virus integrity as well. In this work the four methods are applied in order to detect Triatoma virus (TrV) particles in T. infestans colonies.

Novel loci for adiponectin levels and their influence on type 2 diabetes and metabolic traits: a multi-ethnic meta-analysis of 45,891 individuals.

Circulating levels of adiponectin, a hormone produced predominantly by adipocytes, are highly heritable and are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and other metabolic traits. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 39,883 individuals of European ancestry to identify genes associated with metabolic disease. We identified 8 novel loci associated with adiponectin levels and confirmed 2 previously reported loci (P = 4.5×10(-8)-1.2×10(-43)). Using a novel method to combine data across ethnicities (N = 4,232 African Americans, N = 1,776 Asians, and N = 29,347 Europeans), we identified two additional novel loci. Expression analyses of 436 human adipocyte samples revealed that mRNA levels of 18 genes at candidate regions were associated with adiponectin concentrations after accounting for multiple testing (p<3×10(-4)). We next developed a multi-SNP genotypic risk score to test the association of adiponectin decreasing risk alleles on metabolic traits and diseases using consortia-level meta-analytic data. This risk score was associated with increased risk of T2D (p = 4.3×10(-3), n = 22,044), increased triglycerides (p = 2.6×10(-14), n = 93,440), increased waist-to-hip ratio (p = 1.8×10(-5), n = 77,167), increased glucose two hours post oral glucose tolerance testing (p = 4.4×10(-3), n = 15,234), increased fasting insulin (p = 0.015, n = 48,238), but with lower in HDL-cholesterol concentrations (p = 4.5×10(-13), n = 96,748) and decreased BMI (p = 1.4×10(-4), n = 121,335). These findings identify novel genetic determinants of adiponectin levels, which, taken together, influence risk of T2D and markers of insulin resistance.

The distribution of Biomphalaria spp. in different habitats in relation to physical, biological, water contact and cognitive factors in a rural area in Minas Gerais, Brazil

A total of 256 sites in 11 habitats were surveyed for Biomphalaria in Melquiades rural area (State of Minas Gerais) in August and November 1999 and in March 2000. Of the 1,780 Biomphalaria collected, 1,721 (96.7%) were B. glabrata and 59 (3.3%) B. straminea. Snails were found in all habitats except in wells, with the largest mean numbers in tanks, seepage ponds and canals, and the smallest numbers in springs, rice fields and fishponds. People's knowledge of the occurrence of Biomphalaria at the collection sites and the presence of Biomphalaria ova were strongly correlated with the occurrence of snails, and distance between houses and collection sites, as well as water velocity were inversely correlated with Biomphalaria occurrence (p < 0.001). The strongest predictor o f Biomphalaria occurrence was the presence of tilapia fish in fishponds. Fourteen Biomphalaria (0.8% of all snails) found at 6 sites were infected with Schistosoma mansoni. Suggestions are made for the utilization of local people's knowledge in snail surveys and further studies are recommended on the possible use of tilapia for biological control of Biomphalaria in fishponds, as well as modeling of S. mansoni transmission and reinfection.

The Triatomines of Northern Peru, with Emphasis on the Ecology and Infection by Trypanosomes of Rhodnius ecuadoriensis (Triatominae)

Information on the distribution and synanthropic behaviour of triatomines is essential for Chagas disease vector control. This work summarises such information from northern Peru, and presents new data on Rhodnius ecuadoriensis - an important local vector infesting 10-35% of dwellings in some zones. Three species are strongly synanthropic and may be suitable targets for chemical control of domestic/peridomestic bug populations. Panstrongylus herreri, the main domestic vector in the area, is probably present in sylvatic ecotopes in the Marañón river system. R. ecuadoriensis and Triatoma dimidiata seem exclusively domestic; biogeographical and ecological data suggest they might have spread in association with humans in northern Peru. Confirmation of this hypothesis would result in a local eradication strategy being recommended. Presence of trypanosome natural infection was assessed in 257 R. ecuadoriensis; Trypanosoma rangeli was detected in 4% of bugs. Six further triatomine species are potential disease vectors in the region (T. carrioni, P. chinai, P. rufotuberculatus, P. geniculatus, R. pictipes, and R. robustus), whilst Eratyrus mucronatus, E. cuspidatus, Cavernicola pilosa, Hermanlentia matsunoi, and Belminus peruvianus have little or no epidemiological significance. A strong community-based entomological surveillance system and collaboration with Ecuadorian public health authorities and researchers are recommended.

Triatoma patagonica (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), a New Host for Triatoma virus

Previous authors demonstrated that Triatoma virus (TrV) is able to infect several species of triatomines when injected with viral inoculum obtained from its original host, T. infestans. Both vertical (transovarian) and horizontal (faecal-oral) mechanisms of viral transmission were also described. In this paper we report the experimental TrV infection of a wild species from southern Argentina, T. patagonica. The inoculum consisted of clarified gut contents of infected T. infestans rubbed on the chicken skin whereupon T. patagonica individuals were fed. The results demonstrate that this is another potential host for the virus, and that the oral route is also effective for experimental interspecific infections.

DNA's golden jubilee.

Review of : 50 Years of DNA Foreword by Phil Campbell, edited by Julie Clayton and Carina Dennis Palgrave Macmillan

Effect of the Aedes fluviatilis saliva on the development of Plasmodium gallinaceum infection in Gallus (gallus) domesticus

Effect of Aedes fluviatilis saliva on the development of Plasmodium gallinaceum experimental infection in Gallus (gallus) domesticus was studied in distinct aspects. Chickens subcutaneously infected with sporozoites in the presence of the mosquito salivary gland homogenates (SGH) showed higher levels of parasitaemia when compared to those ones that received only the sporozoites. However, the parasitaemia levels were lower among chickens previously immunized by SGH or non-infected mosquito bites compared to the controls, which did not receive saliva. High levels of anti-saliva antibodies were observed in those immunized chickens. Moreover, 53 and 102 kDa saliva proteins were recognized by sera from immunized chickens. After the sporozoite challenge, the chickens also showed significant levels of anti-sporozoite antibodies. However, the ability to generate anti-sporozoites antibodies was not correlated to the saliva immunization. Our results suggest that mosquito saliva components enhance P. gallinaceum parasite development in naive chickens. However, the prior exposure of chickens to salivary components controls the parasitemia levels in infected individuals.

Antimicrobial activity and chemical investigation of Brazilian Drosera

The antimicrobial activity of three different extracts (hexanic, ethyl acetate, methanol) obtained from Brazilian Drosera species (D. communis, D. montana var. montana, D. brevifolia, D. villosa var. graomogolensis, D. villosa var. villosa, Drosera sp. 1, and Drosera sp. 2 ) were tested against Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923), Enterococcus faecium (ATCC23212), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC27853), Escherichia coli (ATCC11229), Salmonella choleraesuis (ATCC10708), Klebsiella pneumoniae (ATCC13883), and Candida albicans (a human isolate). Better antimicrobial activity was observed with D. communis and D. montana var. montana ethyl acetate extracts. Phytochemical analyses from D. communis, D. montana var. montana and D. brevifolia yielded 5-hydroxy-2-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone (plumbagin); long chain aliphatic hydrocarbons were isolated from D. communis and from D. villosa var. villosa, a mixture of long chain aliphatic alcohols and carboxylic acids, was isolated from D. communis and 3b-O-acetylaleuritolic acid from D. villosa var. villosa.