Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

In-plane thermal conductivity modeling of carbon filled liquid crystal polymer based resins

Adding conductive carbon fillers to insulating thermoplastic resins increases composite electrical and thermal conductivity. Often, as much of a single type of carbon filler is added to achieve the desired conductivity, while still allowing the material to be molded into a bipolar plate for a fuel cell. In this study, varying amounts of three different carbons (carbon black, synthetic graphite particles, and carbon fiber) were added to Vectra A950RX Liquid Crystal Polymer. The in-plane thermal conductivity of the resulting single filler composites were tested. The results showed that adding synthetic graphite particles caused the largest increase in the in-plane thermal conductivity of the composite. The composites were modeled using ellipsoidal inclusion problems to predict the effective in-plane thermal conductivities at varying volume fractions with only physical property data of constituents. The synthetic graphite and carbon black were modeled using the average field approximation with ellipsoidal inclusions and the model showed good agreement with the experimental data. The carbon fiber polymer composite was modeled using an assemblage of coated ellipsoids and the model showed good agreement with the experimental data.

High temperature, low cycle fatigue of a hybrid particulate/fiber aluminum metal-matrix composite

The effect of shot particles on the high temperature, low cycle fatigue of a hybrid fiber/particulate metal-matrix composite (MMC) was studied. Two hybrid composites with the general composition A356/35%SiC particle/5%Fiber (one without shot) were tested. It was found that shot particles acting as stress concentrators had little effect on the fatigue performance. It appears that fibers with a high silica content were more likely to debond from the matrix. Final failure of the composite was found to occur preferentially in the matrix. SiC particles fracture progressively during fatigue testing, leading to higher stress in the matrix, and final failure by matrix overload. A continuum mechanics based model was developed to predict failure in fatigue based on the tensile properties of the matrix and particles. By accounting for matrix yielding and recovery, composite creep and particle strength distribution, failure of the composite was predicted.

Gesture-Based, Touch-Free Multi-User Gaming on Wall-Sized, High-Resolution Tiled Displays

Having to carry input devices can be inconvenient when interacting with wall-sized, high-resolution tiled displays. Such displays are typically driven by a cluster of computers. Running existing games on a cluster is non-trivial, and the performance attained using software solutions like Chromium is not good enough. This paper presents a touch-free, multi-user, humancomputer interface for wall-sized displays that enables completely device-free interaction. The interface is built using 16 cameras and a cluster of computers, and is integrated with the games Quake 3 Arena (Q3A) and Homeworld. The two games were parallelized using two different approaches in order to run on a 7x4 tile, 21 megapixel display wall with good performance. The touch-free interface enables interaction with a latency of 116 ms, where 81 ms are due to the camera hardware. The rendering performance of the games is compared to their sequential counterparts running on the display wall using Chromium. Parallel Q3A’s framerate is an order of magnitude higher compared to using Chromium. The parallel version of Homeworld performed on par with the sequential, which did not run at all using Chromium. Informal use of the touch-free interface indicates that it works better for controlling Q3A than Homeworld.

Are implants more reliable than severely compromised endodontically treated teeth as abutments for zirconia-based FPDs? : In vitro results of long-term preclinical load simulation

OBJECTIVES The aim was to study the impact of the defect size of endodontically treated incisors compared to dental implants as abutments on the survival of zirconia two-unit anterior cantilever-fixed partial dentures (2U-FPDs) during 10-year simulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS Human maxillary central incisors were endodontically treated and divided into three groups (n = 24): I, access cavities rebuilt with composite core; II, teeth decoronated and restored with composite; and III as II supported by fiber posts. In group IV, implants with individual zirconia abutments were used. Specimens were restored with zirconia 2U-FPDs and exposed to two sequences of thermal cycling and mechanical loading. Statistics: Kaplan-Meier; log-rank tests. RESULTS During TCML in group I two tooth fractures and two debondings with chipping were found. Solely chippings occurred in groups II (2×), IV (2×), and III (1×). No significant different survival was found for the different abutments (p = 0.085) or FPDs (p = 0.526). Load capability differed significantly between groups I (176 N) and III (670 N), and III and IV (324 N) (p < 0.024). CONCLUSION Within the limitations of an in vitro study, it can be concluded that zirconia-framework 2U-FPDs on decoronated teeth with/without post showed comparable in vitro reliability as restorations on implants. The results indicated that restorations on teeth with only access cavity perform worse in survival and linear loading. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Even severe defects do not justify per se a replacement of this particular tooth by a dental implant from load capability point of view.

A new tool based on two micromanipulators facilitates the handling of ultrathin cryosection ribbons

A close to native structure of bulk biological specimens can be imaged by cryo-electron microscopy of vitreous sections (CEMOVIS). In some cases structural information can be combined with X-ray data leading to atomic resolution in situ. However, CEMOVIS is not routinely used. The two critical steps consist of producing a frozen section ribbon of a few millimeters in length and transferring the ribbon onto an electron microscopy grid. During these steps, the first sections of the ribbon are wrapped around an eyelash (unwrapping is frequent). When a ribbon is sufficiently attached to the eyelash, the operator must guide the nascent ribbon. Steady hands are required. Shaking or overstretching may break the ribbon. In turn, the ribbon immediately wraps around itself or flies away and thereby becomes unusable. Micromanipulators for eyelashes and grids as well as ionizers to attach section ribbons to grids were proposed. The rate of successful ribbon collection, however, remained low for most operators. Here we present a setup composed of two micromanipulators. One of the micromanipulators guides an electrically conductive fiber to which the ribbon sticks with unprecedented efficiency in comparison to a not conductive eyelash. The second micromanipulator positions the grid beneath the newly formed section ribbon and with the help of an ionizer the ribbon is attached to the grid. Although manipulations are greatly facilitated, sectioning artifacts remain but the likelihood to investigate high quality sections is significantly increased due to the large number of sections that can be produced with the reported tool.

In situ fiber-optical monitoring of cytosolic calcium in tissue explant cultures

We present a fluorescence-lifetime based method for monitoring cell and tissue activity in situ, during cell culturing and in the presence of a strong autofluorescence background. The miniature fiber-optic probes are easily incorporated in the tight space of a cell culture chamber or in an endoscope. As a first application we monitored the cytosolic calcium levels in porcine tracheal explant cultures using the Calcium Green-5N (CG5N) indicator. Despite the simplicity of the optical setup we are able to detect changes of calcium concentration as small as 2.5 nM, with a monitoring time resolution of less than 1 s.

Brain fiber tract plasticity in experimental spinal cord injury: diffusion tensor imaging.

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and immunohistochemistry were performed in spinal cord injured rats to understand the basis for activation of multiple regions in the brain observed in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies. The measured fractional anisotropy (FA), a scalar measure of diffusion anisotropy, along the region encompassing corticospinal tracts (CST) indicates significant differences between control and injured groups in the 3 to 4 mm area posterior to bregma that correspond to internal capsule and cerebral peduncle. Additionally, DTI-based tractography in injured animals showed increased number of fibers that extend towards the cortex terminating in the regions that were activated in fMRI. Both the internal capsule and cerebral peduncle demonstrated an increase in GFAP-immunoreactivity compared to control animals. GAP-43 expression also indicates plasticity in the internal capsule. These studies suggest that the previously observed multiple regions of activation in spinal cord injury are, at least in part, due to the formation of new fibers.

Feather-pecking response of laying hens to feather and cellulose-based rations fed during rearing.

Recent studies in laying hens have shown that feather peckers eat more feathers than nonpeckers. We hypothesized that food pellets containing feathers would decrease the birds' appetite for feathers and thereby also decrease feather pecking. To separate the effect of feathers from that of insoluble fiber per se, additional control groups were fed pellets containing similar amounts of cellulose. Sixty (experiment 1) and 180 (experiment 2) 1-d-old Lohmann-Selected Leghorn birds were divided into 12 groups of 5 (experiment 1) and 15 (experiment 2) birds, respectively, and kept on slatted floors. During the rearing period, 4 groups each had ad libitum access to either a commercial pelleted diet, a pelleted diet containing 5% (experiment 1) or 10% (experiment 2) of chopped feathers, respectively, or a pelleted diet containing 5% (experiment 1) or 10% (experiment 2) of cellulose, respectively. In the consecutive laying period, all groups received a commercial pelleted diet. In experiment 1, feather pecking was recorded weekly from wk 5 to wk 16. In the laying period, observations were made in wk 18, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, and 30. In experiment 2, feather pecking was recorded weekly from wk 5 to 11, in wk 16 to wk 18, and in wk 20 and 21. At the end of the rearing period, plumage condition per individual hen was scored. Scores from 1 (denuded) to 4 (intact) were given for each of 6 body parts. The addition of 10% of feathers to the diet reduced the number of severe feather-pecking bouts (P < 0.0129) and improved plumage condition of the back area (P < 0.001) significantly compared with control diets. The relationship between feather pecking/eating and the gastrointestinal consequences thereof, which alter feather pecking-behavior, are unclear. Understanding this relationship might be crucial for understanding the causation of feather pecking in laying hens.

Comparison of two fiber-optical temperature measurement systems in magnetic fields up to 9.4 Tesla.

PURPOSE Precise temperature measurements in the magnetic field are indispensable for MR safety studies and for temperature calibration during MR-guided thermotherapy. In this work, the interference of two commonly used fiber-optical temperature measurement systems with the static magnetic field B0 was determined. METHODS Two fiber-optical temperature measurement systems, a GaAs-semiconductor and a phosphorescent phosphor ceramic, were compared for temperature measurements in B0 . The probes and a glass thermometer for reference were placed in an MR-compatible tube phantom within a water bath. Temperature measurements were carried out at three different MR systems covering static magnetic fields up to B0  = 9.4T, and water temperatures were changed between 25°C and 65°C. RESULTS The GaAs-probe significantly underestimated absolute temperatures by an amount related to the square of B0 . A maximum difference of ΔT = -4.6°C was seen at 9.4T. No systematic temperature difference was found with the phosphor ceramic probe. For both systems, the measurements were not dependent on the orientation of the sensor to B0 . CONCLUSION Temperature measurements with the phosphor ceramic probe are immune to magnetic fields up to 9.4T, whereas the GaAs-probes either require a recalibration inside the MR system or a correction based on the square of B0 . Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Yellow laser light generation by frequency doubling of the output from a master oscillator fiber power amplifier system

We present a power-scalable approach for yellow laser-light generation based on standard Ytterbium (Yb) doped fibers. To force the cavity to lase at 1154 nm, far above the gain-maximum, measures must be taken to fulfill lasing condition and to suppress competing amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) in the high-gain region. To prove the principle we built a fiber-laser cavity and a fiber-amplifier both at 1154 nm. In between cavity and amplifier we suppressed the ASE by 70 dB using a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) based filter. Finally we demonstrated efficient single pass frequency doubling to 577 nm with a periodically poled lithium niobate crystal (PPLN). With our linearly polarized 1154 nm master oscillator power fiber amplifier (MOFA) system we achieved slope efficiencies of more than 15 % inside the cavity and 24 % with the fiber-amplifier. The frequency doubling followed the predicted optimal efficiency achievable with a PPLN crystal. So far we generated 1.5 W at 1154nm and 90 mW at 577 nm. Our MOFA approach for generation of 1154 nm laser radiation is power-scalable by using multi-stage amplifiers and large mode-area fibers and is therefore very promising for building a high power yellow laser-light source of several tens of Watt.

Evidence for chronic low-grade systemic inflammation in individuals with agoraphobia from a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND Anxiety disorders have been linked to an increased risk of incident coronary heart disease in which inflammation plays a key pathogenic role. To date, no studies have looked at the association between proinflammatory markers and agoraphobia. METHODS In a random Swiss population sample of 2890 persons (35-67 years, 53% women), we diagnosed a total of 124 individuals (4.3%) with agoraphobia using a validated semi-structured psychiatric interview. We also assessed socioeconomic status, traditional cardiovascular risk factors (i.e., body mass index, hypertension, blood glucose levels, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio), and health behaviors (i.e., smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), and other major psychiatric diseases (other anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, drug dependence) which were treated as covariates in linear regression models. Circulating levels of inflammatory markers, statistically controlled for the baseline demographic and health-related measures, were determined at a mean follow-up of 5.5 ± 0.4 years (range 4.7 - 8.5). RESULTS Individuals with agoraphobia had significantly higher follow-up levels of C-reactive protein (p = 0.007) and tumor-necrosis-factor-α (p = 0.042) as well as lower levels of the cardioprotective marker adiponectin (p = 0.032) than their non-agoraphobic counterparts. Follow-up levels of interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 did not significantly differ between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest an increase in chronic low-grade inflammation in agoraphobia over time. Such a mechanism might link agoraphobia with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, and needs to be tested in longitudinal studies.

Evaluation of a solid phase microextraction method for community-based monitoring of 1,3-butadiene and benzene in Houston, Texas

The Houston region is home to arguably the largest petrochemical and refining complex anywhere. The effluent of this complex includes many potentially hazardous compounds. Study of some of these compounds has led to recognition that a number of known and probable carcinogens are at elevated levels in ambient air. Two of these, benzene and 1,3-butadiene, have been found in concentrations which may pose health risk for residents of Houston.^ Recent popular journalism and publications by local research institutions has increased the interest of the public in Houston's air quality. Much of the literature has been critical of local regulatory agencies' oversight of industrial pollution. A number of citizens in the region have begun to volunteer with air quality advocacy groups in the testing of community air. Inexpensive methods exist for monitoring of ozone, particulate matter and airborne toxic ambient concentrations. This study is an evaluation of a technique that has been successfully applied to airborne toxics.^ This technique, solid phase microextraction (SPME), has been used to measure airborne volatile organic hydrocarbons at community-level concentrations. It is has yielded accurate and rapid concentration estimates at a relatively low cost per sample. Examples of its application to measurement of airborne benzene exist in the literature. None have been found for airborne 1,3-butadiene. These compounds were selected for an evaluation of SPME as a community-deployed technique, to replicate previous application to benzene, to expand application to 1,3-butadiene and due to the salience of these compounds in this community. ^ This study demonstrates that SPME is a useful technique for quantification of 1,3-butadiene at concentrations observed in Houston. Laboratory background levels precluded recommendation of the technique for benzene. One type of SPME fiber, 85 μm Carboxen/PDMS, was found to be a sensitive sampling device for 1,3-butadiene under temperature and humidity conditions common in Houston. This study indicates that these variables affect instrument response. This suggests the necessity of calibration within specific conditions of these variables. While deployment of this technique was less expensive than other methods of quantification of 1,3-butadiene, the complexity of calibration may exclude an SPME method from broad deployment by community groups.^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Literature review of estimation of prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in India using population survey and sentinel surveillance based data

HIV/AIDS is a treatable although incurable disease that presents immense challenges to those infected including physical, social and psychological effects. As of 2009, an estimated 2.4 million people were living with HIV or AIDS in India, 0.3% of the country's population. In India, it is difficult to not only treat but also to track because it is associated with socio-economic factors such as illiteracy, social biases, poor sanitation, malnutrition and social class. Nevertheless, it is important to know the prevalence of HIV/AIDS for several reasons. At the individual level, the quality of life of people living with HIV/AIDS is markedly lower than their counterparts without the disease and is associated with challenges. At the community level, it is important to identify high risk groups, monitor prevention efforts, and allocate appropriate resources to target programs for the reduction of transmission of HIV. ^