The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Is ENP good news for the transfer of environmental norms? Incentives and socialization for Eastern neighbours

The launching of the European Neighbourhood Policy has created some expectations. Cooperation between the EU and its partners is expected to get deeper, to the point that neighbouring countries have been promised to share “everything but institutions” with the EU. Moreover, cooperation is also expected to be broader, as it has been presented as including more and more issue areas. In other words, the ENP has the vocation of being a universal instrument to promote the transfer of EU norms. This paper focuses on one single issue area, the environment, and one group of ENP partners, the Western Newly Independent States and the South Caucasus, to revise to what extent neighbourhood policy can provide the mechanisms to encourage rule transfer. Are incentives and disincentives powerful enough? Can the ENP promote the socialization of neighbours into EU environmental norms?

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by asimplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able togenerate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow definingmonitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

Arqueología de la producción agrícola. Aplicación de técnicas de análisis estadístico y geocomputacional a un caso de estudio del IV-II milenio ANE en la Cuenca del Río Grande (Perú)

Muchas investigaciones arqueobotánicas, desde un enfoque cualitativo-descriptivo, limitan el propio campo de estudio a los análisis de presencia/ausencia y/o de frecuencia de taxones a partir de su recuento en los conjuntos vegetales. De esa manera, los datos proporcionados resultan ser inconcluyentes y no fiables para la reconstrucción del paleoambiente, la determinación de la dieta alimenticia y de la práctica económica realizada (recolección VS agricultura), y totalmente insuficientes para determinar los cambios históricos ocurridos en los procesos productivos. Por lo que concierne el Perú, desde los primeros estudios con referencia a restos vegetales recuperados en yacimientos arqueológicos, principalmente de la costa, se documenta el importante papel que han desarrollado las especies vegetales en la vida de las comunidades pre-hispánicas. No obstante la excepcional abundancia y óptima preservación de este tipo de material (botánico) en muchos de los yacimientos arqueológicos de esta región, gracias a las extremas condiciones climáticas y ambientales sobre todo de sus áridas zonas costeras, los estudios arqueobotánicos desarrollados hasta el momento son muy escasos y las limitaciones análiticas que presentan en su mayoría reflejan la poca importancia dada a las investigaciones arqueobotánicas. En el presente trabajo desarrollamos y aplicamos una metodología analítica de tipo cuantitativa para el estudio de los macrorestos vegetales procedentes de un yacimiento de la Costa sur del Perú. Con ello pretendemos obtener datos representativos y objetivos de los conjuntos analizados, cuyo procesado lleve a una exhaustiva y correcta interpretación de la información.

Modelling the cardiovascular system for automatic interpretation of the blood pressure curve

A four compartment model of the cardiovascular system is developed. To allow for easy interpretation and to minimise the number of parameters, an effort was made to keep the model as simple as possible. A sensitivity analysis is first carried out to determine which are the most important model parameters to characterise the blood pressure signal. A four stage process is then described which accurately determines all parameter values. This process is applied to data from three patients and good agreement is shown in all cases.

International survey on skin patch test procedures, attitudes and interpretation.

BACKGROUND Skin patch test is the gold standard method in diagnosing contact allergy. Although used for more than 100 years, the patch test procedure is performed with variability around the world. A number of factors can influence the test results, namely the quality of reagents used, the timing of the application, the patch test series (allergens/haptens) that have been used for testing, the appropriate interpretation of the skin reactions or the evaluation of the patient's benefit. METHODS We performed an Internet -based survey with 38 questions covering the educational background of respondents, patch test methods and interpretation. The questionnaire was distributed among all representatives of national member societies of the World Allergy Organization (WAO), and the WAO Junior Members Group. RESULTS One hundred sixty-nine completed surveys were received from 47 countries. The majority of participants had more than 5 years of clinical practice (61 %) and routinely carried out patch tests (70 %). Both allergists and dermatologists were responsible for carrying out the patch tests. We could observe the use of many different guidelines regardless the geographical distribution. The use of home-made preparations was indicated by 47 % of participants and 73 % of the respondents performed 2 or 3 readings. Most of the responders indicated having patients with adverse reactions, including erythroderma (12 %); however, only 30 % of members completed a consent form before conducting the patch test. DISCUSSION The heterogeneity of patch test practices may be influenced by the level of awareness of clinical guidelines, different training backgrounds, accessibility to various types of devices, the patch test series (allergens/haptens) used for testing, type of clinical practice (public or private practice, clinical or research-based institution), infrastructure availability, financial/commercial implications and regulations among others. CONCLUSION There is a lack of a worldwide homogeneity of patch test procedures, and this raises concerns about the need for standardization and harmonization of this important diagnostic procedure.

Effects of short-term high-fructose diets in humans: modulation by environmental factors

It is currently suspected that sugar overconsumption, and more specifically fructose, may promote the development of obesity and of several cardio-metabolic disorders. However, environmental factors, such as fish oil and dietary proteins, may prevent some deleterious effects of fructose. The aim of this thesis was to identify potential environmental factors that may modulate the metabolic effects of fructose. The first study was designed to evaluate the impact of endurance exercise in healthy young men fed a high-fructose, isocaloric diet. Fructose-induced effects on lipid profile were totally prevented by endurance exercise and may be explained by an enhanced clearance of TRL-TG and the inhibition of de novo lipogenesis. As energy intake was adjusted to energy requirement, we can conclude that exercise acts on fructose metabolism independently of energy imbalance. The second study aimed at determining whether coffee and more specifically chlorogenic acid consumption may prevent fructose-induced intrahepatic lipids accumulation, hypertriglyceridemia and hepatic insulin resistance, through a stimulation of lipid oxidation. Coffee did not prevent the fructose-induced increase in IHCL or plasma TG. Interestingly, the three coffees tested prevented the decrease in hepatic insulin sensitivity, independently of their content in caffeine or chlorogenic acid. Finally, in the third study, we evaluated the effect of essential amino acid supplementation on the increase of hepatic lipids induced by a high-fructose diet. This intervention slightly decreased IHCL concentration. The exact mechanisms remain unidentified but may involve an increased secretion of VLDL-TG. In conclusion, the environmental factors evaluated allow to prevent some of the deleterious effects of fructose and suggest that recommendations on fructose consumption should also take into account environmental factors.

Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Interpretation and use of FRAX in clinical practice.

The introduction of the WHO FRAX® algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. Its use in fracture risk prediction has strengths, but also limitations of which the clinician should be aware and are the focus of this review INTRODUCTION: The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) appointed a joint Task Force to develop resource documents in order to make recommendations on how to improve FRAX and better inform clinicians who use FRAX. The Task Force met in November 2010 for 3 days to discuss these topics which form the focus of this review. METHODS: This study reviews the resource documents and joint position statements of ISCD and IOF. RESULTS: Details on the clinical risk factors currently used in FRAX are provided, and the reasons for the exclusion of others are provided. Recommendations are made for the development of surrogate models where country-specific FRAX models are not available. CONCLUSIONS: The wish list of clinicians for the modulation of FRAX is large, but in many instances, these wishes cannot presently be fulfilled; however, an explanation and understanding of the reasons may be helpful in translating the information provided by FRAX into clinical practice.