DEA does not like positive discrimination : a comparison of alternative models based on empirical data

Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run themselves their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environment adjustment. Five alternative models, each of them easily accessible to and achievable by practitioners and decision makers, are performed using the empirical case of the 90 primary schools of the State of Geneva, Switzerland. As the State of Geneva practices an upstream positive discrimination policy towards schools, this empirical case is particularly appropriate for an environment adjustment. The alternative of the majority of DEA models deliver divergent results. It is a matter of concern for applied researchers and a matter of confusion for practitioners and decision makers. From a political standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially opposite decisions. Grâce à l'existence de logiciels en libre accès et de guides pédagogiques, la méthode data envelopment analysis (DEA) s'est démocratisée ces dernières années. Aujourd'hui, il n'est pas rare que les décideurs avec peu ou pas de connaissances en recherche opérationnelle réalisent eux-mêmes leur propre analyse d'efficience. A l'intérieur de la méthode DEA, plusieurs modèles permettent de tenir compte des conditions plus ou moins favorables de l'environnement. Cinq de ces modèles, facilement accessibles et applicables par les décideurs, sont utilisés pour mesurer l'efficience des 90 écoles primaires du canton de Genève, Suisse. Le canton de Genève pratiquant une politique de discrimination positive envers les écoles défavorisées, ce cas pratique est particulièrement adapté pour un ajustement à l'environnement. La majorité des modèles DEA génèrent des résultats divergents. Ce constat est préoccupant pour les chercheurs appliqués et perturbant pour les décideurs. D'un point de vue politique, ces résultats divergents conduisent à des prises de décision différentes selon le modèle sur lequel elles sont fondées.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Task 4: Testing Iowa Portland Cement Concrete Mixtures for the AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Procedure, May 2008

The present research project was designed to identify the typical Iowa material input values that are required by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) for the Level 3 concrete pavement design. It was also designed to investigate the existing equations that might be used to predict Iowa pavement concrete for the Level 2 pavement design. In this project, over 20,000 data were collected from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and other sources. These data, most of which were concrete compressive strength, slump, air content, and unit weight data, were synthesized and their statistical parameters (such as the mean values and standard variations) were analyzed. Based on the analyses, the typical input values of Iowa pavement concrete, such as 28-day compressive strength (f’c), splitting tensile strength (fsp), elastic modulus (Ec), and modulus of rupture (MOR), were evaluated. The study indicates that the 28-day MOR of Iowa concrete is 646 + 51 psi, very close to the MEPDG default value (650 psi). The 28-day Ec of Iowa concrete (based only on two available data of the Iowa Curling and Warping project) is 4.82 + 0.28x106 psi, which is quite different from the MEPDG default value (3.93 x106 psi); therefore, the researchers recommend re-evaluating after more Iowa test data become available. The drying shrinkage (εc) of a typical Iowa concrete (C-3WR-C20 mix) was tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory (CTL). The test results show that the ultimate shrinkage of the concrete is about 454 microstrain and the time for the concrete to reach 50% of ultimate shrinkage is at 32 days; both of these values are very close to the MEPDG default values. The comparison of the Iowa test data and the MEPDG default values, as well as the recommendations on the input values to be used in MEPDG for Iowa PCC pavement design, are summarized in Table 20 of this report. The available equations for predicting the above-mentioned concrete properties were also assembled. The validity of these equations for Iowa concrete materials was examined. Multiple-parameters nonlinear regression analyses, along with the artificial neural network (ANN) method, were employed to investigate the relationships among Iowa concrete material properties and to modify the existing equations so as to be suitable for Iowa concrete materials. However, due to lack of necessary data sets, the relationships between Iowa concrete properties were established based on the limited data from CP Tech Center’s projects and ISU classes only. The researchers suggest that the resulting relationships be used by Iowa pavement design engineers as references only. The present study furthermore indicates that appropriately documenting concrete properties, including flexural strength, elastic modulus, and information on concrete mix design, is essential for updating the typical Iowa material input values and providing rational prediction equations for concrete pavement design in the future.

Empirical antifungal therapy in neutropaenic cancer patients with persistent fever

Invasive fungal infections are frequent and severe complications in leukaemic patients with prolonged neutropaenia. Empirical antifungal therapy has become the standard of care in patients with persistent fever despite treatment with broad-spectrum antibiotics. For decades amphotericin B deoxycholate has been the sole option for empirical antifungal therapy. Recently, several new antifungal agents became available. The choice of the most appropriate drug should be guided by efficacy and safety criteria. The recommendations from the First European Conference on Infections in Leukaemia (ECIL-1) on empirical antifungal therapy in neutropaenic cancer patients with persistent fever have been developed by an expert panel after assessment of clinical practices in Europe and evidence-based review of the literature. Many antifungal regimens can now be recommended for empirical therapy in neutropaenic cancer patients. However, persistent fever lacks specificity for initiation of therapy. Development of empirical and pre-emptive strategies using new clinical parameters, laboratory markers and imaging techniques for early diagnosis of invasive mycoses are needed.

Access by Capacity and Peak-Load Pricing

Several European telecommunications regulatory agencies have recently introduced a fixed capacity charge (flat rate) to regulate access to the incumbent's network. The purpose of this paper is to show that the optimal capacity charge and the optimal access-minute charge analysed by Armstrong, Doyle, and Vickers (1996) have a similar structure and imply the same payment for the entrant. I extend the analysis tothe case where there is a competitor with market power. In this case, the optimalcapacity charge should be modified to avoid that the entrant cream-skims the market,fixing a longer or a shorter peak period than the optimal. Finally, I consider a multiproduct setting, where the effect of the product differentiation is exacerbated.

Prices of medicines: a case-study on the impact of the rate-of-return regulation in the United Kingdom

This work carries out an empirical evaluation of the impact of the main mechanism for regulating the prices of medicines in the UK on a variety ofpharmaceutical price indices. The empirical evidence shows that the overall impact of the rate of return cap appears to have been slight or even null, and in any case that the impact would differ across therapeutic areas. These empiricalfindings suggest that the price regulation has managed to encourage UK-based firms¿ diversification in many therapeutic areas

Maintenance Asset Management Project -- Phase II, July 31, 2013

Expanded abstract: Iowa Department of Transportation (IA DOT) is finalizing research to streamline field inventory/inspection of culverts by Maintenance and Construction staff while maximizing the use of tablet technologies. The project began in 2011 to develop some new best practices for field staff to assist in the inventory, inspection and maintenance of assets along the roadway. The team has spent the past year working through the complexities of identifying the most appropriate tablet hardware for field data collection. A small scale deployment of tablets occurred in spring of 2013 to collect several safety related assets (culverts, signs, guardrail, and incidents). Data can be collected in disconnected or connected modes and there is an associated desktop environment where data can be viewed and queried after being synced into the master database. The development of a deployment plan and related workflow processes are underway; which will eventually feed information into IA DOTs larger asset management system and make the information available for decision making. The team is also working with the IA DOT Design Office on Computer Aided Drafting (CAD) data processing and the IA DOT Construction office with a new digital As-Built plan process to leverage the complete data life-cycle so information can be developed once and leveraged by the Maintenance staff farther along in the process.

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 5: Characterization of Unbound Materials (Soils/Aggregates) for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The resilient modulus (MR) input parameters in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) program have a significant effect on the projected pavement performance. The MEPDG program uses three different levels of inputs depending on the desired level of accuracy. The primary objective of this research was to develop a laboratory testing program utilizing the Iowa DOT servo-hydraulic machine system for evaluating typical Iowa unbound materials and to establish a database of input values for MEPDG analysis. This was achieved by carrying out a detailed laboratory testing program designed in accordance with the AASHTO T307 resilient modulus test protocol using common Iowa unbound materials. The program included laboratory tests to characterize basic physical properties of the unbound materials, specimen preparation and repeated load triaxial tests to determine the resilient modulus. The MEPDG resilient modulus input parameter library for Iowa typical unbound pavement materials was established from the repeated load triaxial MR test results. This library includes the non-linear, stress-dependent resilient modulus model coefficients values for level 1 analysis, the unbound material properties values correlated to resilient modulus for level 2 analysis, and the typical resilient modulus values for level 3 analysis. The resilient modulus input parameters library can be utilized when designing low volume roads in the absence of any basic soil testing. Based on the results of this study, the use of level 2 analysis for MEPDG resilient modulus input is recommended since the repeated load triaxial test for level 1 analysis is complicated, time consuming, expensive, and requires sophisticated equipment and skilled operators.

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 7: Existing Pavement Input Information for the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The objective of this study is to systematically evaluate the Iowa Department of Transportation’s (DOT’s) existing Pavement Management Information System (PMIS) with respect to the input information required for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) rehabilitation analysis and design. To accomplish this objective, all of available PMIS data for interstate and primary roads in Iowa were retrieved from the Iowa DOT PMIS. The retrieved data were evaluated with respect to the input requirements and outputs for the latest version of the MEPDG software (version 1.0). The input parameters that are required for MEPDG HMA rehabilitation design, but currently unavailable in the Iowa DOT PMIS were identified. The differences in the specific measurement metrics used and their units for some of the pavement performance measures between the Iowa DOT PMIS and MEPDG were identified and discussed. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that the Iowa DOT PMIS should be updated, if possible, to include the identified parameters that are currently unavailable, but are required for MEPDG rehabilitation design. Similarly, the measurement units of distress survey results in the Iowa DOT PMIS should be revised to correspond to those of MEPDG performance predictions. *******************Large File**************************

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 8: Validation of Pavement Performance Curves for the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The objective of this research is to determine whether the nationally calibrated performance models used in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provide a reasonable prediction of actual field performance, and if the desired accuracy or correspondence exists between predicted and monitored performance for Iowa conditions. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the MEPDG input parameters and the MEPDG verification/calibration process. Sensitivities of MEPDG input parameters to predictions were studied using different versions of the MEPDG software. Based on literature review and sensitivity analysis, a detailed verification procedure was developed. A total of sixteen different types of pavement sections across Iowa, not used for national calibration in NCHRP 1-47A, were selected. A database of MEPDG inputs and the actual pavement performance measures for the selected pavement sites were prepared for verification. The accuracy of the MEPDG performance models for Iowa conditions was statistically evaluated. The verification testing showed promising results in terms of MEPDG’s performance prediction accuracy for Iowa conditions. Recalibrating the MEPDG performance models for Iowa conditions is recommended to improve the accuracy of predictions. ****************** Large File**************************

Rockfall travel distance analysis by using empirical models (Solà d'Andorra la Vella, Central Pyrenees)

The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000¿1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.