Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Generic Bifurcations of Planar Filippov Systems via Geometric Singular Perturbations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Regularization and singular perturbation techniques for non-smooth systems

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Time evolution of the Wigner function in discrete quantum phase space for a soluble quasi-spin model

The discrete phase space approach to quantum mechanics of degrees of freedom without classical counterparts is applied to the many-fermions/quasi-spin Lipkin model. The Wi:ner function is written for some chosen states associated to discrete angle and angular momentum variables, and the rime evolution is numerically calculated using the discrete von Neumnnn-Liouville equation. Direct evidences in the lime evolution of the Wigner function are extracted that identify a tunnelling effect. A connection with a SU(2)-based semiclassical continuous approach to the Lipkin model is also presented.

Quasiprobability distribution functions for finite-dimensional discrete phase spaces: Spin-tunneling effects in a toy model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Discrete approximations for strict convex continuous time problems and duality

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Dynamics in discrete phase spaces and time interval operators

The von Neumann-Liouville time evolution equation is represented in a discrete quantum phase space. The mapped Liouville operator and the corresponding Wigner function are explicitly written for the problem of a magnetic moment interacting with a magnetic field and the precessing solution is found. The propagator is also discussed and a time interval operator, associated to a unitary operator which shifts the energy levels in the Zeeman spectrum, is introduced. This operator is associated to the particular dynamical process and is not the continuous parameter describing the time evolution. The pair of unitary operators which shifts the time and energy is shown to obey the Weyl-Schwinger algebra. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of Singularities in Nonsmooth Dynamical Systems via Singular Perturbation

In this article we describe some qualitative and geometric aspects of nonsmooth dynamical systems theory around typical singularities. We also establish an interaction between nonsmooth systems and geometric singular perturbation theory. Such systems are represented by discontinuous vector fields on R(l), l >= 2, where their discontinuity set is a codimension one algebraic variety. By means of a regularization process proceeded by a blow-up technique we are able to bring about some results that bridge the space between discontinuous systems and singularly perturbed smooth systems. We also present an analysis of a subclass of discontinuous vector fields that present transient behavior in the 2-dimensional case, and we dedicate a section to providing sufficient conditions in order for our systems to have local asymptotic stability.

Wide localized solitons in systems with time- and space-modulated nonlinearities

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Symmetries and time evolution in discrete phase spaces: a soluble model calculation

Using the flexibility and constructive definition of the Schwinger bases, we developed different mapping procedures to enhance different aspects of the dynamics and of the symmetries of an extended version of the two-level Lipkin model. The classical limits of the dynamics are discussed in connection with the different mappings. Discrete Wigner functions are also calculated. © 1995.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

Predictability is related to the uncertainty in the outcome of future events during the evolution of the state of a system. The cluster weighted modeling (CWM) is interpreted as a tool to detect such an uncertainty and used it in spatially distributed systems. As such, the simple prediction algorithm in conjunction with the CWM forms a powerful set of methods to relate predictability and dimension.