Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

The Evolution of Securities Lending and Risk Mitigation: A Finnish Market Case Study

Although securities lending is an important function of the financial markets, it has not received that much academic attention. This study examines the evolution of European securities lending and risk management with an emphasis on the development of collateral management, the function responsible for reducing credit risk. The effects of the recent financial instabilities are also considered. The evolution of the Finnish securities lending market is examined in more detail through a case-study. This study can be classified as a constructive qualitative case study. The initial practical knowledge comes from the author's own experience and additional insight and theoretical background is acquired through a literature review. The case study is based on research, semi-structured interviews and a brief analysis of numerical data. The main observation of this study was that securities lending is now recognized as more of an investment management discipline than an operational support function. The recent financial instabilities have resulted in an increased focus on risk and transparency. In securities lending this is directly reflected in collateral management guidelines and procedures. Collateral management has become increasingly technologically developed and automated. Collateral optimization initiatives have been started to make the process more efficient, liquid, and cost effective. Although securities lending is generally an OTC-market with no standard market place, centralized exchange-like models have been introduced. Finnish securities lending has now shifted towards the more common global OTC model. Although the Finnish securities lending industry has developed, and the main laws governing it (tax legislation) have changed, there is still need for development. There are still not many Finnish participants involved and due to legal issues most securities loans are collateralized with cash and not securities (e.g. government bonds).

Developing a Brand Positioning Model for International Strategic Marketing

The target of this thesis is to develop a brand positioning process model for the case company’s international operations. The model will make the process more effective and decrease the risk of relevant aspects being forgotten. The focus is on the international operations although generally the brand positioning can be seen as a standardized subject and, thus, there is no need to distinguish market areas. Constructive research approach is chosen as a research method. Internal interviews are done in order to give the much needed insight about the case company’s current processes and circumstances. Based on theory, interviews as well as internal and external material the model is built. The most difficult part in building the model is to determine the order of each phase. Also, deciding the number of each phase can be problematic. The model should be brief and assertive in order to reduce the risk of misunderstanding between employees from different units. Based on the analysis of the interviews and the theory the brand positioning process model is presented with indication of the order of each phase. The model is divided to three main groups: Analyzing the Environment, Determining the Brand Position, and Documenting the BPS. The benefits of the model are that overlapping work can be reduced, too similar brands can be noticed and it is easier to train new employees.

Cardiovascular risk in middle-aged breast cancer survivors: a comparison between two risk models

PURPOSE: It was to assess the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer survivors (BCS).METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed 67 BCS, aged 45 -65 years, who underwent complete oncological treatment, but had not received hormone therapy, tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors during the previous 6 months. Lipid profile and CVD risk were evaluated, the latter using the Framingham and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) models. The agreement between cardiovascular risk models was analyzed by calculating a kappa coefficient and its 95% confidence interval (CI).RESULTS: Mean subject age was 53.2±6.0 years, with rates of obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia of 25, 34 and 90%, respectively. The most frequent lipid abnormalities were high total cholesterol (70%), high LDL-C (51%) and high non-HDL-C (48%) concentrations. Based on the Framingham score, 22% of the participants had a high risk for coronary artery disease. According to the SCORE model, 100 and 93% of the participants were at low risk for fatal CVD in populations at low and high risk, respectively, for CVD. The agreement between the Framingham and SCORE risk models was poor (kappa: 0.1; 95%CI 0.01 -0.2) for populations at high risk for CVD.CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate the need to include lipid profile and CVD risk assessment in the follow-up of BCS, focusing on adequate control of serum lipid concentrations.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil

Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Analytic evaluation of three-phase short circuit demagnetization and hysteresis loss risk in rotor-surface-magnet Permanent-Magnet Synchronous Machines

Permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSM) have become widely used in applications because of high efficiency compared to synchronous machines with exciting winding or to induction motors. This feature of PMSM is achieved through the using the permanent magnets (PM) as the main excitation source. The magnetic properties of the PM have significant influence on all the PMSM characteristics. Recent observations of the PM material properties when used in rotating machines revealed that in all PMSMs the magnets do not necessarily operate in the second quadrant of the demagnetization curve which makes the magnets prone to hysteresis losses. Moreover, still no good analytical approach has not been derived for the magnetic flux density distribution along the PM during the different short circuits faults. The main task of this thesis is to derive simple analytical tool which can predict magnetic flux density distribution along the rotor-surface mounted PM in two cases: during normal operating mode and in the worst moment of time from the PM’s point of view of the three phase symmetrical short circuit. The surface mounted PMSMs were selected because of their prevalence and relatively simple construction. The proposed model is based on the combination of two theories: the theory of the magnetic circuit and space vector theory. The comparison of the results in case of the normal operating mode obtained from finite element software with the results calculated with the proposed model shows good accuracy of model in the parts of the PM which are most of all prone to hysteresis losses. The comparison of the results for three phase symmetrical short circuit revealed significant inaccuracy of the proposed model compared with results from finite element software. The analysis of the inaccuracy reasons was provided. The impact on the model of the Carter factor theory and assumption that air have permeability of the PM were analyzed. The propositions for the further model development are presented.

Sleep deprivation reduces the lymphocyte count in a non-obese mouse model of type 1 diabetes mellitus

The objective of the present study was to determine whether sleep deprivation (SD) would promote changes in lymphocyte numbers in a type 1 diabetes model (non-obese diabetic, NOD, mouse strain) and to determine whether SD would affect female and male NOD compared to Swiss mice. The number of lymphocytes in peripheral blood after 24 and 96 h of SD (by multiple platform method) or equivalent period of time in home-cage controls was examined prior to the onset of diabetes. SD for 96 h significantly reduced lymphocytes in male Swiss mice compared to control (8.6 ± 2.1 vs 4.1 ± 0.7 10³/µL; P < 0.02). In male NOD animals, 24- and 96-h SD caused a significant decrease of lymphocytes compared to control (4.4 ± 0.3 vs 1.6 ± 0.5; P < 0.001 and 4.4 ± 0.3 vs 0.9 ± 0.1 10³/µL; P < 0.00001, respectively). Both 24- and 96-h SD induced a reduction in the number of lymphocytes in female Swiss (7.5 ± 0.5 vs 4.5 ± 0.5, 4.4 ± 0.6 10³/µL; P < 0.001, respectively) and NOD mice (4 ± 0.6 vs 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.2 ± 0.4 10³/µL; P < 0.01, respectively) compared to the respective controls. Loss of sleep induced lymphopenia in peripheral blood in both genders and strains used. Since many cases of autoimmunity present reduced numbers of lymphocytes and, in this study, it was more evident in the NOD strain, our results suggest that SD should be considered a risk factor in the onset of autoimmune disorders.

Association between the -174 G/C promoter polymorphism of the interleukin-6 gene and cardiovascular disease risk factors in Brazilian older women

In worldwide studies, interleukin-6 (IL-6) is implicated in age-related disturbances. The aim of the present report was to determine the possible association of IL-6 -174 C/G promoter polymorphism with the cytokine profile as well as with the presence of selected cardiovascular risk features. This was a cross-sectional study on Brazilian women aged 60 years or older. A sample of 193 subjects was investigated for impaired glucose regulation, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Genotyping was done by direct sequencing of PCR products. IL-6 and C-reactive protein were quantified by high-sensitivity assays. General linear regression models or the Student t-test were used to compare continuous variables among genotypes, followed by adjustments for confounding variables. The chi-square test was used to compare categorical variables. The genotypes were consistent with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium proportions. In a recessive model, mean waist-to-hip ratio, serum glycated hemoglobin and serum glucose were markedly lower in C homozygotes (P = 0.001, 0.028, and 0.047, respectively). In a dominant hypothesis, G homozygotes displayed a trend towards higher levels of circulating IL-6 (P = 0.092). Non-parametric analysis revealed that impaired fasting glucose and hypertension were findings approximately 2-fold more frequent among G homozygous subjects (P = 0.042 and 0.043, respectively). Taken together, our results show that the IL-6 -174 G-allele is implicated in a greater cardiovascular risk. To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of IL-6 promoter variants and age-related disturbances in the Brazilian elderly population.

Gross proteinuria is a strong risk predictor for cardiovascular mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Cardioprotective effect of ornitho-kinin in an anesthetized, open-chest chicken model of acute coronary occlusion

The generation of bradykinin (BK; Arg-Pro-Pro-Gly-Phe-Ser-Pro-Phe-Arg) in blood and kallidin (Lys-BK) in tissues by the action of the kallikrein-kinin system has received little attention in non-mammalian vertebrates. In mammals, kallidin can be generated by the coronary endothelium and myocytes in response to ischemia, mediating cardioprotective events. The plasma of birds lacks two key components of the kallikrein-kinin system: the low molecular weight kininogen and a prekallikrein activator analogous to mammalian factor XII, but treatment with bovine plasma kallikrein generates ornitho-kinin [Thr6,Leu8]-BK. The possible cardioprotective effect of ornitho-kinin infusion was investigated in an anesthetized, open-chest chicken model of acute coronary occlusion. A branch of the left main coronary artery was reversibly ligated to produce ischemia followed by reperfusion, after which the degree of myocardial necrosis (infarct size as a percent of area at risk) was assessed by tetrazolium staining. The iv injection of a low dose of ornitho-kinin (4 µg/kg) reduced mean arterial pressure from 88 ± 12 to 42 ± 7 mmHg and increased heart rate from 335 ± 38 to 402 ± 45 bpm (N = 5). The size of the infarct was reduced by pretreatment with ornitho-kinin (500 µg/kg infused over a period of 5 min) from 35 ± 3 to 10 ± 2% of the area at risk. These results suggest that the physiological role of the kallikrein-kinin system is preserved in this animal model in spite of the absence of two key components, i.e., low molecular weight kininogen and factor XII.

Animal model for age- and sex-related genotoxicity of diethylstilbestrol

Environmental xenoestrogens pose a significant health risk for all living organisms. There is growing evidence concerning the different susceptibility to xenoestrogens of developing and adult organisms, but little is known about their genotoxicity in pre-pubertal mammals. In the present study, we developed an animal model to test the sex- and age-specific genotoxicity of the synthetic estrogen diethylstilbestrol (DES) on the reticulocytes of 3-week-old pre-pubertal and 12-week-old adult BALB/CJ mice using the in vivo micronucleus (MN) assay. DES was administered intraperitoneally at doses of 0.05, 0.5, and 5 µg/kg for 3 days and animals were sampled 48, 72 and 96 h, and 2 weeks after exposure. Five animals were analyzed for each dose, sex, and age group. After the DES dose of 0.05 µg/kg, pre-pubertal mice showed a significant increase in MN frequency (P < 0.001), while adults continued to show reference values (5.3 vs 1.0 MN/1000 reticulocytes). At doses of 0.5 and 5 µg/kg, MN frequency significantly increased in both age groups. In pre-pubertal male animals, MN frequency remained above reference values for 2 weeks after exposure. Our animal model for pre-pubertal genotoxicity assessment using the in vivo MN assay proved to be sensitive enough to distinguish age and sex differences in genome damage caused by DES. This synthetic estrogen was found to be more genotoxic in pre-pubertal mice, males in particular. Our results are relevant for future investigations and the preparation of legislation for drugs and environmentally emitted agents, which should incorporate specific age and gender susceptibility.

Rosuvastatin prevents myocardial necrosis in an experimental model of acute myocardial infarction

Dyslipidemia is related to the progression of atherosclerosis and is an important risk factor for acute coronary syndromes. Our objective was to determine the effect of rosuvastatin on myocardial necrosis in an experimental model of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Male Wistar rats (8-10 weeks old, 250-350 g) were subjected to definitive occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery to cause AMI. Animals were divided into 6 groups of 8 to 11 rats per group: G1, normocholesterolemic diet; G2, normocholesterolemic diet and rosuvastatin (1 mg·kg-1·day-1) 30 days after AMI; G3, normocholesterolemic diet and rosuvastatin (1 mg·kg-1·day-1) 30 days before and after AMI; G4, hypercholesterolemic diet; G5, hypercholesterolemic diet and rosuvastatin (1 mg·kg-1·day-1) 30 days after AMI; G6, hypercholesterolemic diet and rosuvastatin (1 mg·kg-1·day-1) 30 days before and after AMI. Left ventricular function was determined by echocardiography and percent infarct area by histology. Fractional shortening of the left ventricle was normal at baseline and decreased significantly after AMI (P < 0.05 in all groups), being lower in G4 and G5 than in the other groups. No significant difference in fractional shortening was observed between G6 and the groups on the normocholesterolemic diet. Percent infarct area was significantly higher in G4 than in G3. No significant differences were observed in infarct area among the other groups. We conclude that a hypercholesterolemic diet resulted in reduced cardiac function after AMI, which was reversed with rosuvastatin when started 30 days before AMI. A normocholesterolemic diet associated with rosuvastatin before and after AMI prevented myocardial necrosis when compared with the hypercholesterolemic condition.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

Mutations in the HFE gene and sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis risk: a meta-analysis of observational studies

Iron homeostasis dysregulation has been regarded as an important mechanism in neurodegenerative diseases. The H63D and C282Y polymorphisms in theHFE gene may be involved in the development of sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) through the disruption of iron homeostasis. However, studies investigating the relationship between ALS and these two polymorphisms have yielded contradictory outcomes. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the roles of the H63D and C282Y polymorphisms of HFEin ALS susceptibility. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Strict selection criteria and exclusion criteria were applied. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of associations. A fixed- or random-effect model was selected, depending on the results of the heterogeneity test. Fourteen studies were included in the meta-analysis (six studies with 1692 cases and 8359 controls for C282Y; 14 studies with 5849 cases and 13,710 controls for H63D). For the C282Y polymorphism, significant associations were observed in the allele model (Y vs C: OR=0.76, 95%CI=0.62-0.92, P=0.005) and the dominant model (YY+CYvs CC: OR=0.75, 95%CI=0.61-0.92, P=0.006). No associations were found for any genetic model for the H63D polymorphism. The C282Y polymorphism in HFE could be a potential protective factor for ALS in Caucasians. However, the H63D polymorphism does not appear to be associated with ALS.