Cost dependent strategy for electricity markets bidding based on adaptive reinforcement learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players with strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible bids. These bids are defined accordingly to the cost function that each producer presents.

Intelligent behavior in a Cyber-Ambient training system for control center operators

This paper deals with the application of an intelligent tutoring approach to delivery training in diagnosis procedures of a Power System. In particular, the mechanisms implemented by the training tool to support the trainees are detailed. This tool is part of an architecture conceived to integrate Power Systems tools in a Power System Control Centre, based on an Ambient Intelligent paradigm. The present work is integrated in the CITOPSY project which main goal is to achieve a better integration between operators and control room applications, considering the needs of people, customizing requirements and forecasting behaviors.

Implementing slot-based task-splitting multiprocessor scheduling

Consider the problem of scheduling a set of sporadic tasks on a multiprocessor system to meet deadlines using a task-splitting scheduling algorithm. Task-splitting (also called semi-partitioning) scheduling algorithms assign most tasks to just one processor but a few tasks are assigned to two or more processors, and they are dispatched in a way that ensures that a task never executes on two or more processors simultaneously. A particular type of task-splitting algorithms, called slot-based task-splitting dispatching, is of particular interest because of its ability to schedule tasks with high processor utilizations. Unfortunately, no slot-based task-splitting algorithm has been implemented in a real operating system so far. In this paper we discuss and propose some modifications to the slot-based task-splitting algorithm driven by implementation concerns, and we report the first implementation of this family of algorithms in a real operating system running Linux kernel version 2.6.34. We have also conducted an extensive range of experiments on a 4-core multicore desktop PC running task-sets with utilizations of up to 88%. The results show that the behavior of our implementation is in line with the theoretical framework behind it.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Reverse problem-based learning - a case study with a Braille machine

Engineering Education includes not only teaching theoretical fundamental concepts but also its verification during practical lessons in laboratories. The usual strategies to carry out this action are frequently based on Problem Based Learning, starting from a given state and proceeding forward to a target state. The possibility or the effectiveness of this procedure depends on previous states and if the present state was caused or resulted from earlier ones. This often happens in engineering education when the achieved results do not match the desired ones, e.g. when programming code is being developed or when the cause of the wrong behavior of an electronic circuit is being identified. It is thus important to also prepare students to proceed in the reverse way, i.e. given a start state generate the explanation or even the principles that underlie it. Later on, this sort of skills will be important. For instance, to a doctor making a patient?s story or to an engineer discovering the source of a malfunction. This learning methodology presents pedagogical advantages besides the enhanced preparation of students to their future work. The work presented on his document describes an automation project developed by a group of students in an engineering polytechnic school laboratory. The main objective was to improve the performance of a Braille machine. However, in a scenario of Reverse Problem-Based learning, students had first to discover and characterize the entire machine's function before being allowed (and being able) to propose a solution for the existing problem.

RFID-based wireless passive sensors utilizing cork materials

This paper presents the design of low-cost, conformal UHF antennas and RFID tags on two types of cork substrates: 1) natural cork and 2) agglomerate cork. Such RFID tags find an application in wine bottle and barrel identification, and in addition, they are suitable for numerous antenna-based sensing applications. This paper includes the high-frequency characterization of the selected cork substrates considering the anisotropic behavior of such materials. In addition, the variation of their permittivity values as a function of the humidity is also verified. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, three conformal RFID tags have been implemented on cork, and their performance has been evaluated using both a commercial Alien ALR8800 reader and an in-house measurement setup. The reading of all tags has been checked, and a satisfactory performance has been verified, with reading ranges spanning from 0.3 to 6 m. In addition, this paper discusses how inkjet printing can be applied to cork surfaces, and an RFID tag printed on cork is used as a humidity sensor. Its performance is tested under different humidity conditions, and a good range in excess of 3 m has been achieved, allied to a good sensitivity obtained with a shift of >5 dB in threshold power of the tag for different humid conditions.

Localization system for pedestrians based on sensor and information fusion

Nowadays there is an increase of location-aware mobile applications. However, these applications only retrieve location with a mobile device's GPS chip. This means that in indoor or in more dense environments these applications don't work properly. To provide location information everywhere a pedestrian Inertial Navigation System (INS) is typically used, but these systems can have a large estimation error since, in order to turn the system wearable, they use low-cost and low-power sensors. In this work a pedestrian INS is proposed, where force sensors were included to combine with the accelerometer data in order to have a better detection of the stance phase of the human gait cycle, which leads to improvements in location estimation. Besides sensor fusion an information fusion architecture is proposed, based on the information from GPS and several inertial units placed on the pedestrian body, that will be used to learn the pedestrian gait behavior to correct, in real-time, the inertial sensors errors, thus improving location estimation.

Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Development of 2-oxazoline-based hydrogels and porous polyester microparticles in scCO2

Thesis submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia from Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the obtention of the degree of Master of Science in Biotechnology

Ethical leadership and unethical pro-organizational behavior: A moderated mediation model of affective commitment and authenticity at work

Recently, unethical conduct in the workplace has been a focus of literature and media. Unethical pro-organizational behavior (UPB) refers to unethical conduct that employees engage in to benefit the organization. Given the complexity of UPB, there is an increasing need to understand how and under what conditions this attitude originates within organizations. Based on a sample of 167 employees and seven organizations, results support the moderated mediation model. An ethical leader increases employees’ organizational affective commitment which increases the likelihood to engage in UPB. However, the indirect relationship diminishes when employees feel authentic at work.

Consumer behavior: Online grocery shopping in Portugal

Living in the digital era, activities that have for centuries acted one way, have now changed and entered the online world, and online grocery shopping is one of them. It is a worldwide phenomenon and is already a significant part of people’s lifestyle in several countries however, in Portugal, it is still in expansion and improvement. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this study allowed to estimate how the perceived risk and shopping orientation counterbalances the convenience offered to consumers. Furthermore, it validated how usability and access to focused promotions can help speed up this adaptation in Portugal

MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Engineering bio-based polymers using alternative solvents and processes

The work presented in this thesis explores novel routes for the processing of bio-based polymers, developing a sustainable approach based on the use of alternative solvents such as supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2), ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DES). The feasibility to produce polymeric foams via supercritical fluid (SCF) foaming, combined with these solvents was assessed, in order to replace conventional foaming techniques that use toxic and harmful solvents. A polymer processing methodology is presented, based on SCF foaming and using scCO2 as a foaming agent. The SCF foaming of different starch based polymeric blends was performed, namely starch/poly(lactic acid) (SPLA) and starch/poly(ε-caprolactone) (SPCL). The foaming process is based on the fact that CO2 molecules can dissolve in the polymer, changing their mechanical properties and after suitable depressurization, are able to create a foamed (porous) material. In these polymer blends, CO2 presents limited solubility and in order to enhance the foaming effect, two different imidazolium based ILs (IBILs) were combined with this process, by doping the blends with IL. The use of ILs proved useful and improved the foaming effect in these starch-based polymer blends. Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR-ATR) proved the existence of interactions between the polymer blend SPLA and ILs, which in turn diminish the forces that hold the polymeric structure. This is directly related with the ability of ILs to dissolve more CO2. This is also clear from the sorption experiments results, where the obtained apparent sorption coefficients in presence of IL are higher compared to the ones of the blend SPLA without IL. The doping of SPCL with ILs was also performed. The foaming of the blend was achieved and resulted in porous materials with conductivity values close to the ones of pure ILs. This can open doors to applications as self-supported conductive materials. A different type of solvents were also used in the previously presented processing method. If different applications of the bio-based polymers are envisaged, replacing ILs must be considered, especially due to the poor sustainability of some ILs and the fact that there is not a well-established toxicity profile. In this work natural DES – NADES – were the solvents of choice. They present some advantages relatively to ILs since they are easy to produce, cheaper, biodegradable and often biocompatible, mainly due to the fact that they are composed of primary metabolites such as sugars, carboxylic acids and amino-acids. NADES were prepared and their physicochemical properties were assessed, namely the thermal behavior, conductivity, density, viscosity and polarity. With this study, it became clear that these properties can vary with the composition of NADES, as well as with their initial water content. The use of NADES in the SCF foaming of SPCL, acting as foaming agent, was also performed and proved successful. The SPCL structure obtained after SCF foaming presented enhanced characteristics (such as porosity) when compared with the ones obtained using ILs as foaming enhancers. DES constituted by therapeutic compounds (THEDES) were also prepared. The combination of choline chloride-mandelic acid, and menthol-ibuprofen, resulted in THEDES with thermal behavior very distinct from the one of their components. The foaming of SPCL with THEDES was successful, and the impregnation of THEDES in SPCL matrices via SCF foaming was successful, and a controlled release system was obtained in the case of menthol-ibuprofen THEDES.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.