Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Spatial cognition, body representation and affective processes: the role of vestibular information beyond ocular reflexes and control of posture

A growing number of studies in humans demonstrate the involvement of vestibular information in tasks that are seemingly remote from well-known functions such as space constancy or postural control. In this review article we point out three emerging streams of research highlighting the importance of vestibular input: (1) Spatial Cognition: Modulation of vestibular signals can induce specific changes in spatial cognitive tasks like mental imagery and the processing of numbers. This has been shown in studies manipulating body orientation (changing the input from the otoliths), body rotation (changing the input from the semicircular canals), in clinical findings with vestibular patients, and in studies carried out in microgravity. There is also an effect in the reverse direction; top-down processes can affect perception of vestibular stimuli. (2) Body Representation: Numerous studies demonstrate that vestibular stimulation changes the representation of body parts, and sensitivity to tactile input or pain. Thus, the vestibular system plays an integral role in multisensory coordination of body representation. (3) Affective Processes and Disorders: Studies in psychiatric patients and patients with a vestibular disorder report a high comorbidity of vestibular dysfunctions and psychiatric symptoms. Recent studies investigated the beneficial effect of vestibular stimulation on psychiatric disorders, and how vestibular input can change mood and affect. These three emerging streams of research in vestibular science are—at least in part—associated with different neuronal core mechanisms. Spatial transformations draw on parietal areas, body representation is associated with somatosensory areas, and affective processes involve insular and cingulate cortices, all of which receive vestibular input. Even though a wide range of different vestibular cortical projection areas has been ascertained, their functionality still is scarcely understood.

Knowledge representation through graphs

Due to the increasing amount of data, knowledge aggregation, representation and reasoning are highly important for companies. In this paper, knowledge aggregation is presented as the first step. In the sequel, successful knowledge representation, for instance through graphs, enables knowledge-based reasoning. There exist various forms of knowledge representation through graphs; some of which allow to handle uncertainty and imprecision by invoking the technology of fuzzy sets. The paper provides an overview of different types of graphs stressing their relationships and their essential features.

Virtual photon-photon scattering

Based on analyticity, unitarity, and Lorentz invariance the contribution from hadronic vacuum polarization to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon is directly related to the cross section of e+e− → hadrons. We review the main difficulties that impede such an approach for light-by-light scattering and identify the required ingredients from experiment. Amongst those, the most critical one is the scattering of two virtual photons into meson pairs. We analyze the analytic structure of the process γ*γ* → ππ and show that the usual Muskhelishvili–Omnès representation can be amended in such a way as to remain valid even in the presence of anomalous thresholds.

Fuzzy knowledge representation in cognitive cities

This paper gives an insight into cognitive computing for smart cities, resulting in cognitive cities. Cognitive cities and cognitive computing research with the underlying concepts of knowledge graphs and fuzzy cognitive maps are presented and supported by existing tools (i.e., IBM Watson and Google Now) and intended tools (meta-app). The paper illustrates FCM as a suiting instrument to represent information/knowledge in a city environment driven by human-technology interaction, enforcing the concept of cognitive cities. A proposed paper prototype combines the findings of the paper and shows the next step in the implementation of the proposed meta-app.

Loyal to the Game? Strategic Policy Representation in Mixed Electoral Systems

In Germany's compensatory mixed electoral system, alternative electoral routes lead into parliament. We study the relationship between candidates' electoral situations across both tiers and policy representation, fully accounting for candidate, party and district preferences in a multi-actor constellation and the exact electoral incentives for candidates to represent either the party or the district. The results (2009 Bundestag election data) yield evidence of an interactive effect of closeness of the district race and list safety on candidates' positioning between their party and constituency.

The block numerical range of analytic operator functions

We introduce the block numerical range Wn(L) of an operator function L with respect to a decomposition H = H1⊕. . .⊕Hn of the underlying Hilbert space. Our main results include the spectral inclusion property and estimates of the norm of the resolvent for analytic L . They generalise, and improve, the corresponding results for the numerical range (which is the case n = 1) since the block numerical range is contained in, and may be much smaller than, the usual numerical range. We show that refinements of the decomposition entail inclusions between the corresponding block numerical ranges and that the block numerical range of the operator matrix function L contains those of its principal subminors. For the special case of operator polynomials, we investigate the boundedness of Wn(L) and we prove a Perron-Frobenius type result for the block numerical radius of monic operator polynomials with coefficients that are positive in Hilbert lattice sense.

Neural representation and clinically relevant moderators of individualised self-criticism in healthy subjects

Many people routinely criticise themselves. While self-criticism is largely unproblematic for most individuals, depressed patients exhibit excessive self-critical thinking, which leads to strong negative affects. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging in healthy subjects (N = 20) to investigate neural correlates and possible psychological moderators of self-critical processing. Stimuli consisted of individually selected adjectives of personally negative content and were contrasted with neutral and negative non-self-referential adjectives. We found that confrontation with self-critical material yielded neural activity in regions involved in emotions (anterior insula/hippocampus-amygdala formation) and in anterior and posterior cortical midline structures, which are associated with self-referential and autobiographical memory processing. Furthermore, contrasts revealed an extended network of bilateral frontal brain areas. We suggest that the co-activation of superior and inferior lateral frontal brain regions reflects the recruitment of a frontal top-down pathway, representing cognitive reappraisal strategies for dealing with evoked negative affects. In addition, activation of right superior frontal areas was positively associated with neuroticism and negatively associated with cognitive reappraisal. Although these findings may not be specific to negative stimuli, they support a role for clinically relevant personality traits in successful regulation of emotion during confrontation with self-critical material.

The Martian Gas-Analytic Package for the Landing Platform Experiments of the ExoMars 2018

The paper describes the architecture of the Martian Gas Analytic Package, which is proposed for the Russian ExoMars Lander 2018.

Chow–Liu trees are sufficient predictive models for reproducing key features of functional networks of periictal EEG time-series

Seizure freedom in patients suffering from pharmacoresistant epilepsies is still not achieved in 20–30% of all cases. Hence, current therapies need to be improved, based on a more complete understanding of ictogenesis. In this respect, the analysis of functional networks derived from intracranial electroencephalographic (iEEG) data has recently become a standard tool. Functional networks however are purely descriptive models and thus are conceptually unable to predict fundamental features of iEEG time-series, e.g., in the context of therapeutical brain stimulation. In this paper we present some first steps towards overcoming the limitations of functional network analysis, by showing that its results are implied by a simple predictive model of time-sliced iEEG time-series. More specifically, we learn distinct graphical models (so called Chow–Liu (CL) trees) as models for the spatial dependencies between iEEG signals. Bayesian inference is then applied to the CL trees, allowing for an analytic derivation/prediction of functional networks, based on thresholding of the absolute value Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) matrix. Using various measures, the thus obtained networks are then compared to those which were derived in the classical way from the empirical CC-matrix. In the high threshold limit we find (a) an excellent agreement between the two networks and (b) key features of periictal networks as they have previously been reported in the literature. Apart from functional networks, both matrices are also compared element-wise, showing that the CL approach leads to a sparse representation, by setting small correlations to values close to zero while preserving the larger ones. Overall, this paper shows the validity of CL-trees as simple, spatially predictive models for periictal iEEG data. Moreover, we suggest straightforward generalizations of the CL-approach for modeling also the temporal features of iEEG signals.