Future operational-tactical level warfare : challenges and opportunities for the defence of Finland

Finnish Defence Studies is published under the auspices of the National Defence College, and the contributions reflect the fields of research and teaching of the College. Finnish Defence Studies will occasionally feature documentation on Finnish Security Policy. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily imply endorsement by the National Defence College.

The legal framework for energy provisions in the European Union – With special regard to providing of energy provisions within the scope of Article 194(2) TFEU

The thesis interprets the caveat of Article 194(2) TFEU in order to assess the use of the Article as a legal basis for energy provisions provided by the European Union. The research subject is the Energy Title in the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union and the possibilities of the application of the legal basis provided therein. The purpose is analysis of the possibilities for providing of provisions within the scope of the caveat found in Article 194(2) TFEU with special regard to the possibilities of providing renewable energy legislation. The purpose of the thesis is on one hand to provide an overview of the premises for providing of energy provisions in the EU, and on the other hand to analyse the Treaty text in order to determine the legal basis for energy provisions. The ultimate objective is to determine the correct legal basis for renewable energy provisions, aimed at the mitigation of climate change. According to Article 194(2) TFEU, the practice of the shared legislative powers in the field of energy are restricted by the retention of certain energy matters within the power of the Member States. The wording of the caveat containing the restrictions is open to interpretation and has been a subject of extensive discussion. Many scholars have argued that the caveat in Article 194(2) TFEU might obstruct decision-making in energy matters. This argument is contested, and the factual impact of the codification of the energy competences is analysed. The correct legal basis for energy provisions depends on the final interpretation of the text of the caveat and the level of significance of the effect of the measure. The use of Article 194(2) TFEU as a legal basis might not be the only option. There is a possibility that the legal bases within the Environmental Title might be used as legal bases for energy provisions in addition to Article 194(2) TFEU.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

The legal framework for energy provisions in the European Union – With special regard to providing of energy provisions within the scope of Article 194(2) TFEU

The thesis interprets the caveat of Article 194(2) TFEU in order to assess the use of the Article as a legal basis for energy provisions provided by the European Union. The research subject is the Energy Title in the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union and the possibilities of the application of the legal basis provided therein. The purpose is analysis of the possibilities for providing of provisions within the scope of the caveat found in Article 194(2) TFEU with special regard to the possibilities of providing renewable energy legislation. The purpose of the thesis is on one hand to provide an overview of the premises for providing of energy provisions in the EU, and on the other hand to analyse the Treaty text in order to determine the legal basis for energy provisions. The ultimate objective is to determine the correct legal basis for renewable energy provisions, aimed at the mitigation of climate change. According to Article 194(2) TFEU, the practice of the shared legislative powers in the field of energy are restricted by the retention of certain energy matters within the power of the Member States. The wording of the caveat containing the restrictions is open to interpretation and has been a subject of extensive discussion. Many scholars have argued that the caveat in Article 194(2) TFEU might obstruct decision-making in energy matters. This argument is contested, and the factual impact of the codification of the energy competences is analysed. The correct legal basis for energy provisions depends on the final interpretation of the text of the caveat and the level of significance of the effect of the measure. The use of Article 194(2) TFEU as a legal basis might not be the only option. There is a possibility that the legal bases within the Environmental Title might be used as legal bases for energy provisions in addition to Article 194(2) TFEU.

Movax Oy:n tuotteiden ja tekniikan käyttömahdollisuudet pilaantuneiden maa-alueiden ja pohjavesien kunnostushankkeissa

Työn tavoitteena on tarkastella erilaisia in-situ -kunnostusmenetelmiä maaperän ja pohjaveden kunnostushankkeissa ja niiden toteutusvaihtoehtoja sekä vertailla niitä keskenään. Työssä tarkastellaan myös lainsäädännön ja eri menetelmien kehittymistä, niiden tulevaisuuden näkymiä sekä pohditaan yrityksen tuotteiden liiketoimintamahdollisuuksia tämän pohjalta. Tietoa kerätään kirjallisuudesta sekä tapaustutkimuksista ja niitä peilataan yrityksen sisällä olevaan hiljaiseen tietoon. Löydettyä kirjallisuustietoa sekä tapaustutkimuksia on analysoitu SWOT-analyysien sekä ryhmittelyjen avulla. Työn tuloksena on esitetty vaihtoehtoinen tapa asentaa reaktiivinen seinämä pohjaveden kunnostushankkeissa yrityksen tuotteiden ja putkipaalujen avulla. Lisäksi työn pohjalta voidaan koota materiaalia ja lisätietoa asiakkaille sekä myynnin ja markkinoinnin tukemiseen. Tulosten pohjalta voidaan arvioida, että kyseinen menetelmä tukisi myös kestävän kehityksen periaatteita kunnostushankkeen toteutus- ja asennusvaiheessa. Menetelmän avulla voitaisiin mahdollisesti vähentää reaktiivisten seinämien asentamiseen liittyviä ympäristövaikutuksia.

Oppisopimuskoulutus yritysten tuottamana koulutuspalveluna: tavoitteista vaikutuksiin

Työpaikoilla tapahtuvan koulutuksen merkitys korostuu yhteiskunnassa kaikilla tasoilla nyt ja tulevaisuudessa. Tämä väitöstutkimus määrittelee oppisopimuskoulutuksen yritysten tuottamana koulutuspalveluna osana ammatillista tutkintoon johtavaa koulutusta, jota tuotetaan työpaikoilla ja yrityksissä. Väitöstutkimuksessa tarkastellaan niitä tavoitteita, joita yrityksissä oppisopimuskoulutukseen liittyy ja vaikutuksia, joita koulutusta tuottamalla yrityksessä syntyy. Tutkimuksen kohteena ovat eri alojen pienet ja keskisuuret yritykset (pk-yritykset), jotka ovat tuottaneet oppisopimuskoulutusta ja joilla on siitä vuosien kokemus. Lisäksi tutkimukseen osallistui pk-yrityksiä, joille oppisopimuskoulutus ja siihen liittyvä toiminta on vierasta. Tutkimus tuo uutta tietoa vain vähän tutkittuun aikuisten oppisopimuskoulutukseen, mutta ei sulje pois nuorten oppisopimuskoulutukseen liittyviä kysymyksiä. Tutkimus yhdistää oppisopimuskoulutuksen ja koulutuksen tuottamisen yrityksissä, mikä uudistaa sekä oppisopimuskoulutukseen, ammatilliseen koulutukseen, palvelun tuottamiseen että osaamiseen liittyvää teoreettista viitekehystä. Lisäksi tutkimus tuo yrityksille sekä oppisopimuskoulutuksen hallinnollisille tahoille palvelun tuottamisen ja siihen liittyvien tavoitteiden ja vaikutusten näkökulman. Väitöstutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys perustuu ja jakautuu kolmeen osaan: palveluun ja sen tuottamiseen, osaamispääomiin ja niiden eri muotoihin sekä vaikutuksiin palvelutuotannossa. Teoreettinen viitekehys kuvaa monimuotoisesti oppisopimuskoulutuksen ilmiötä, jonka olemus muuttuu sen mukaan, miten, kuka tai mikä taho sitä arvioi tai tarkastelee. Väitöstutkimus on empiiriseltä luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen tutkimus, jonka aineisto on kerätty teemahaastatteluilla vuoden 2013 lopulla ja vuoden 2014 alussa. Aineisto on analysoitu sisällönanalyysillä aineistolähtöisesti. Tutkimusote pohjautuu abduktiiviseen päättelyyn. Tutkimustulokset esitetään ja luokitellaan niin tavoitteiden kuin vaikutusten osalta inhimillisen, rakenteellisen ja suhdepääoman kautta. Tutkimuksen mukaan oppisopimuskoulutuksen vaikutukset nähdään positiivisina ja neutraaleina, eikä alakohtaisia eroja vaikutusten osalta juuri ole. Myönteisten vaikutusten saavuttamiseen liittyy tärkeänä osana arvon luomisen ja tuottamisen kokemus molemmilla koulutukseen osallistuvilla osapuolilla. Lisäksi myönteisten vaikutusten taustalla ovat yrityksen sitoutuminen sekä työn ja koulutuksen johtamisosaaminen. Yrityksissä on tärkeää, että imago kouluttajana on hyvä. Oppisopimuskoulutuksen tuottamisesta syntyneet vaikutukset ovat asetettuja tavoitteita laajemmat, erityisesti rakenteelliseen pääomaan liittyvien vaikutusten osalta. Oppisopimuskoulutuksen vaikuttavuus yrityksessä syntyy asetettujen tavoitteiden ja vaikutusten välisestä suhteesta. Kokonaisuutena voidaan todeta, että oppisopimuskoulutuksen vaikuttavuus ja suorituskyky yrityksissä ovat hyvät, vaikka koulutuksen laatu vaihtelee jonkin verran. Oppisopimuskoulutuksen käynnistäminen, aloittaminen ja tuottaminen liittyvät usein niin sanottuihin oppisopimusagentteihin eli sellaisiin kehityshakuisiin henkilöihin, joilla jossakin elämäntilanteessa on ollut myönteisiä kokemuksia oppisopimuskoulutuksen mahdollisuuksista. Tutkimuksen mukaan oppisopimuskoulutuksen kustannukset koostuvat työsuhteesta, tietopuolisen koulutuksen aikaisesta työstä poissaolosta sekä ohjauksesta ja arvioinnista, mutta koulutusta pidetään taloudellisesti kannattavana. Oppisopimuskoulutuksen tuottamista estävät pääasiassa viestinnän ja tiedottamisen puute, koulutusmahdollisuuden tunnistamatta jääminen, yritysten heikko koulutuskulttuuri sekä epäselvät mielikuvat ja käsitykset. Nuorten oppisopimuskoulutuksen toteuttamisen hidasteina ovat tutkimuksen mukaan työsuhteeseen ja talouteen liittyvät seikat, nuorten kasvun vaiheeseen sisältyvät tekijät sekä monenlaiset pedagogiset ja eettiset kysymykset. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että nuori on käsitteenä ja viiteryhmänä epämääräinen. Ammatillisen koulutuksen ja oppisopimuskoulutuksen eri muodot ja monet käsitteet myös aiheuttavat epäselvyyttä molemmissa tutkimuksen konteksteissa eli yrityksissä, joissa oppisopimuskoulutusta tuotetaan sekä yrityksissä, joissa sitä ei tuoteta.

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARCTIC Strategic opportunities and threats for Finnish companies

The Arctic environment is changing constantly. There are several factors that constitute to the rate and immensity of the development. The region differs from the surrounding markets that most of the countries in the region have been used to. Therefore the purpose of the study was to understand how the political environment affects Finnish companies’ strategies and business operations. The issues analyzed were the political environment in the region, the business environment and economic development, and the opportunities and threats that the Finnish companies have in Arctic. The main theories were found from strategic management and market analysis tools. The different theories and definitions were gone through in order to understand the context of the study. This is a qualitative study that uses content analysis as its main method of analyzing the data. Therefore the data analyzed was gathered from already existing material and it was analyzed until the saturation point was found. This was done in order to minimize the risks related to using secondary data. The data collected was then categorized into themes accordingly. First the general political environment in the Arctic was studied, especially the Arctic Council and its work as the main political entity. From there the focus shifted to the business environment and the general opportunities and threats that are found from Arctic economic development. China offered another point of view to this as it represented a non-Arctic state with a keen interest on the region. Lastly the two previous objectives were combined and looked through from a Finnish perspective. Finnish companies have a great starting point to Arctic business and the operational business environment gives them the framework with which they have to operate in. As a conclusion it can be said that there are three main factors leading the Arctic economic development; the climate change, the development of technology, and the political environment. These set the framework with which the companies operating in the region must comply with. The industry that is likely to lead the development is the marine industry. Furthermore it became evident that the Finnish companies operating in the Arctic face many opportunities as well as threats which can be utilized, taken advantage of or controlled through effective strategic management. The key characteristics needed in the region are openness and understanding of the challenging environment and the ability to face and manage the arising challenges.

Examining current facilitative practices and projections of activity-based physical education degree programs regarding the participation of individuals with disabilties /

Individuals with disabiliiies are increasingly accessing post secondary education opportunities to further develop their educational and career goals. This study examines the current facilitative practices of Canadian university activity-based physical education degree programs on the participation of individuals with disabilities. A critical orientation and descriptive/interpretative approach allows insight into unique stories and experiences of physical education practitioners and special needs professionals as they attempt to provide equitable educational experiences within a least restrictive environment. Leading practitioners are used to triangulate and strengthen the validity of the data while providing direction and advocacy for future development and inclusion of individuals with disabilities. The study concludes with seven recommendations, each providing university activity-based physical education degree programs with viable opportunities for helping create equitable opportunities for individuals with disabilities.

Female administrators and the mentors who give them full support /

A looming attrition rate, a steady increase in the number of women in administration, and a lack of Canadian research all provided the rationale for this study. The problem in this study was to investigate the needs and challenges of new female administrators and to examine the role that mentors play in addressing these issues. This study also explored the perceived benefits of having a mentor. This study examined the inductive year of 33 female administrators from 3 Ontario school boards. It was a qualitative and quantitative design, using questionnaire and interview data. It was found that the majority felt that they struggled with biases and expectations that were gender specific. The challenges that were perceived to be most prevalent were categorized into 4 thematic areas: Maintaining Balance, Feeling Pressured, The Perceptions of Others, and Being Challenged by Others. Regarding the benefits of mentoring, the participants perceived mentoring to be most beneficial in terms of professional growth, followed by learning how to run a school, and then career advancement. The significance of this study was threefold: it had theoretical implications as well as implications for practice and future research. Suggestions included: facilitating longitudinal relationships, having the board become more actively involved in facilitating the relationship, and implementing an internship program. This study attempted to extend the current literature by theorizing that a mentorship is cyclical in nature. Future research could include program design and implementation, as well as providing consistent and accessible mentoring opportunities for all.

Show me, help me, let me : supporting teachers' changing conceptions of reading assessment and reading instruction

This qualitative inquiry used case study methodology to explore the change processes of 3 primary-grade teachers throughout their participation in 7 -month professional learning initiative focused on reading assessment and instruction. Participants took part in semimonthly inquiry-based professional learning community sessions, as well as concurrent individualized classroom-based literacy coaching. Each participant's experiences were first analyzed as a single case study, followed by cross-case analyses. While their patterns of professional growth differed, findings documented how all participants altered their understandings of the roles and relevancy of individual components of reading instruction (e.g., comprehension, decoding) and instructional approaches to scaffold students' growth (e.g., levelled text, strategy instruction), and experienced some form of conceptual change. Factors identified as affecting their change processes included; motivation, professional knowledge, professional beliefs (self-efficacy and theoretical orientation), resources (e.g., time, support), differentiated professional learning with associated goal-setting, and uncontrollable influences, with the affect of each factor compounded by interaction with the others. Comparison of participants' experiences to the Cognitive-Affective Model of Conceptual Change (CAMCC) and the Interconnected Model of Teacher Professional Growth (IMTPG) demonstrated the applicability of using both conceptual models, with the IMTPG providing macrolevel insights over time and the CAMCC microlevel insights at each change intervaL Recommendations include the provision of differentiated teacher professional learning opportunities, as well as research documenting the effects of teacher mentorship programs and the professional growth of teacher educators. ii

A black-focused school : black Canadian youth and the mainstream curriculum

ABSTRACT When asked about the proposal for a black-focused school, black youth from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) voiced their agreement with elements of the proposal, but resisted the idea of implementing the proposal by creating a separate school. Although media representations and Dei (1996, 2006) provide insight into what Torontonians' reactions are to the proposed blackfocused school there has been no such information documented on what black youth in the GTA think about the project. This is the first known study that attempts to fill that gap by providing a representation of black youths' voices obtained via focus groups. The study examines what black youth know and think about the proposal, and why they largely disagree with the blackfocused school proposal. While the findings of this study indicate that the participants saw many positive elements of the proposal, they did not support the implementation of a black-focused school as they saw the creation of a separate space for the school as a negative thing. The youth had trouble conceptualizing 'black-focused schooling' as an alternative approach to mainstream education, which had an impact on whether they choose to, or could, respond to questions that precisely related to the black-focused school project. The study concludes that the youth could not visualize what the school would look like and how it would operate because they draw on liberal racist discourses (e.g. colour-blindness, blaming the victim, and equal opportunity) when thinking about their educational experiences; however, there was a clear contradiction in the way the youths' voices reflected an awareness of the role of race in education experiences. It was evident when they talked about fear of stigmatization, but when using liberal discourses the youth discounted the role of race, and seemed not to be aware of its role in educational experiences. These findings pose important implications for educators, would-be educators, administrators, the TDSB and proponents of the black-focused school.

Life after hockey : an examination of athletic career transition and the National Hockey League's career transition program

The existent body of athletic career retirement literature is scant in studies of career transition programs. In an effort to attend to this analytical gap, the present study set out to examine the transitions of National Hockey League (NHL; ice hockey) alumni, as well as the effect ~and effectiveness of their respective career transition program, the Life After Hockey program. Interviews with 17 NHL/program alumni revealed that quality of transition (to post-playing life) was affected by: the continuity between pre- and postretirement environments; athletic identity; physical/psychological health (particularly with respect to post-concussion syndrome); selective coping strategies (e.g., preretirement planning (e.g., financial planning, continued education), positive reinterpretation, alcohol/substance abuse); and social support. Also affecting quality of transition, and found to be highly effective (particularly in generating new occupational opportunities, assisting in the acquisition of new skills, and providing a system of continuous support), was the Life After Hockey program.

Profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements in the U.S. Treasury market

This thesis studies the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the U.S. Treasury market and investigates profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements using data from the eSpeed electronic trading platform. We investigate how macroeconomic announcements affect the return predictability of trade imbalance for the 2-year, 5-year, IO-year U.S. Treasury notes and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology to identify informed trades and estimate the trade imbalance based on informed trades. We use the daily order book slope as a proxy for dispersion of beliefs among investors. Regression results in this thesis indicate that, on announcement days with a high dispersion of beliefs, daily trade imbalance estimated by informed trades significantly predicts returns on the following day. In addition, we develop a trade-imbalance based trading strategy conditional on dispersion of beliefs, informed trades, and announcement days. The trading strategy yields significantly positive net returns for the 2-year T-notes.