Perigo, probabilidade e oportunidade: a linguagem dos riscos na mídia

Partindo do pressuposto que risco é um conceito central na sociedade contemporânea, este estudo teve por objetivo entender o papel da mídia na circulação e consolidação da linguagem dos riscos. Tendo por base estudos anteriores, optou-se por trabalhar com um único jornal, a Folha de S. Paulo, sendo adotados três procedimentos de pesquisa: 1) mapeamento da diversidade de termos utilizados para falar sobre a possibilidade de ocorrência de eventos concebidos como ocasião para ganho ou perda; 2) análise diacrônica de uma amostra representativa de matérias com a palavra risco no título (1921 e 1998); 3) análise do uso da linguagem de risco por área temática (CD-Rom Folha, 1994-1997). Os resultados sugerem que o uso da linguagem dos riscos na mídia é recente e diversificado, apoiando-se ora na linguagem formal do cálculo de risco, ora no uso metafórico do termo, para falar de desordem na sociedade contemporânea.

Same-Destination-Intermediate Grouping vs. End-to-End Grouping for Waveband Switching in WDM Mesh Networks

We investigate waveband switching (WBS) with different grouping strategies in wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) mesh networks. End-to-end waveband switching (ETEWBS) and same-destination-intermediate waveband switching (SD-IT-WBS) are analyzed and compared in terms of blocking probability and cost savings. First, an analytical model for ETEWBS is proposed to determine the network blocking probability in a mesh network. For SD-IT-WBS, a simple waveband switching algorithm is presented. An analytical model to determine the network blocking probability is proposed for SD-IT-WBS based on the algorithm. The analytical results are validated by comparing with simulation results. Both results match well and show that ETE-WBS slightly outperforms SD-IT-WBS in terms of blocking probability. On the other hand, simulation results show that SD-IT-WBS outperforms ETE-WBS in terms of cost savings.

A Novel Cost-Efficient On-Line Intermediate Waveband-Switching Scheme in WDM Mesh Networks

Waveband switching (WBS) is an important technique to save switching and transmission cost in wavelength -division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks. A cost-efficient WBS scheme would enable network carriers to increase the network throughput (revenue) while achieving significant cost savings. We identify the critical factors that determine the WBS network throughput and switching cost and propose a novel intermediate waveband switching (IT-WBS) algorithm, called the minimizing-weighted-cost (MWC) algorithm. The MWC algorithm defines a cost for each candidate route of a call. By selecting the route with the smallest weighted cost, MWC balances between minimizing the call blocking probability and minimizing the network switching cost. Our simulations show that MWC outperforms other wavelength/waveband switching algorithms and can enhance the network throughput at a reduced cost.

Discontinuous Waveband Switching in WDM Optical Networks

Routing techniques used in wavelength routed optical networks (WRN) do not give an efficient solution with Waveband routed optical networks (WBN) as the objective of routing in WRN is to reduce the blocking probability and that in WBN is to reduce the number of switching ports. Routing in WBN can be divided two parts, finding the route and grouping the wavelength assigned into that route with some existing wavelengths/wavebands. In this paper, we propose a heuristic for waveband routing, which uses a new grouping strategy called discontinuous waveband grouping to group the wavelengths into a waveband. The main objective of our algorithm is to decrease the total number of ports required and reduce the blocking probability of the network. The performance of the heuristic is analyzed using simulation on a WBN with non-uniform wavebands.

Medical Students' Attitudes Toward The Medical College Admission Test

The following study analyzed the attitudes held by pre-clinical medical students about the Medical College Admission Test or MCAT. One hundred and eighty first-year and second-year medical students at a public Midwestern medical university participated in this study. Participants completed the “Medical Students Attitudes toward the Medical College Admission Test” survey during their morning lectures near the end of their spring semester. A composite scale score of the Likert items of the survey was computed and the proportion of students with attitudes ranging from strongly agree to strongly disagree was calculated. For six of the twelve Likert items the largest proportion of participants disagreed with the statements about the MCAT and its use in the admission process and its applicability to their current medical education. Other questions included how participants prepared for the MCAT and if they completed each of the subsections were addressed as well. Future research could determine if attitudes between students accepted into medical school and those not accepted are drastically different. Advisor: Kurt F. Geisinger

New Brazilian Floristic List Highlights Conservation Challenges

A comprehensive new inventory of Brazilian plants and fungi was published just in time to meet a 2010 Convention on Biological Diversity target and offers important insights into this biodiversity's global significance. Brazil is the home to the world's richest flora (40,989 species; 18,932 endemic) and includes two of the hottest hotspots: Mata Atlantica (19,355 species) and Cerrado (12,669 species). Although the total number of known species is one-third lower than previous estimates, the absolute number of endemic vascular plant species is higher than was previously estimated, and the proportion of endemism (56%) is the highest in the Neotropics. This compilation serves not merely to quantify the scale of the challenge faced in conserving Brazil's unique flora but also serves as a key resource to direct action and monitor progress. Similar efforts by other megadiverse countries are urgently required if the 2020 targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation are to be attained.

The impact of late diagnosis on the survival of patients following their first AIDS-related hospitalization in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm(3) and >= 1000 mm(3)), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity off acilitating HIV diagnosis.

Latent residual analysis in binary regression with skewed link

Model diagnostics is an integral part of model determination and an important part of the model diagnostics is residual analysis. We adapt and implement residuals considered in the literature for the probit, logistic and skew-probit links under binary regression. New latent residuals for the skew-probit link are proposed here. We have detected the presence of outliers using the residuals proposed here for different models in a simulated dataset and a real medical dataset.

Nursing Workload as a Risk Factor for Healthcare Associated Infections in ICU: A Prospective Study

Introduction: Nurse understaffing is frequently hypothesized as a potential risk factor for healthcare-associated infections (HAI). This study aimed to evaluate the role of nursing workload in the occurrence of HAI, using Nursing Activities Score (NAS). Methods: This prospective cohort study enrolled all patients admitted to 3 Medical ICUs and one step-down unit during 3 months (2009). Patients were followed-up until HAI, discharge or death. Information was obtained from direct daily observation of medical and nursing rounds, chart review and monitoring of laboratory system. Nursing workload was determined using NAS. Non-compliance to the nurses' patient care plans (NPC) was identified. Demographic data, clinical severity, invasive procedures, hospital interventions, and the occurrence of other adverse events were also recorded. Patients who developed HAI were compared with those who did not. Results: 195 patients were included and 43 (22%) developed HAI: 16 pneumonia, 12 urinary-tract, 8 bloodstream, 2 surgical site, 2 other respiratory infections and 3 other. Average NAS and average proportion of non compliance with NPC were significantly higher in HAI patients. They were also more likely to suffer other adverse events. Only excessive nursing workload (OR: 11.41; p: 0.019) and severity of patient's clinical condition (OR: 1.13; p: 0.015) remained as risk factors to HAI. Conclusions: Excessive nursing workload was the main risk factor for HAI, when evaluated together with other invasive devices except mechanical ventilation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate prospectively the nursing workload as a potential risk factor for HAI, using NAS.

Genetic diversity of Stryphnodendron adstringens (Mart.) Coville determined by AFLP molecular markers

Bark extracts of Stryphnodendron adstringens (Mart) Coville a Leguminosae species, well known in Brazil as barbatimao, are popularly used as healing agent. The objective of this work was to determine the genetic diversity of S. adstringens populations and to correlate genetic distances to the production of tannins. S. adstringens accessions from populations found in Cerrado regions in the states of Goias, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo were analyzed using the AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) technique. A total of 236 polymorphic bands were scored and higher proportion of genetic diversity was found inter populations (70.9%), rather than intra populations (29.1%). F-ST value was found to be significantly greater than zero (0.2906), demonstrating the complex genetic structure of S. adstringens populations. Accessions collected in Cristalina, GO, showed higher percentage of polymorphic loci (87.3%) and the highest genetic diversity. The lowest genetic variability was detected among accessions from the population growing in Caldas Novas, GO. The genetic distance among populations was estimated using the Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA), which grouped populations into 3 clusters. Moreover, chemotypes with tannin concentration above 40% showed higher genetic similarity. AFLP analysis proved to be an efficient gene mapping technique to determine the genetic diversity among remaining populations of S. adstringens. Obtained results may be employed to implement further strategies for the conservation of this medicinal plant. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in community-dwelling older people when compared to usual care: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (Prevquedas Brazil)

Background Falling in older age is a major public health concern due to its costly and disabling consequences. However very few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted in developing countries, in which population ageing is expected to be particularly substantial in coming years. This article describes the design of an RCT to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in reducing the rate of falls in community-dwelling older people. Methods/design Multicentre parallel-group RCT involving 612 community-dwelling men and women aged 60 years and over, who have fallen at least once in the previous year. Participants will be recruited in multiple settings in Sao Paulo, Brazil and will be randomly allocated to a control group or an intervention group. The usual care control group will undergo a fall risk factor assessment and be referred to their clinicians with the risk assessment report so that individual modifiable risk factors can be managed without any specific guidance. The intervention group will receive a 12-week Multifactorial Falls Prevention Program consisting of: an individualised medical management of modifiable risk factors, a group-based, supervised balance training exercise program plus an unsupervised home-based exercise program, an educational/behavioral intervention. Both groups will receive a leaflet containing general information about fall prevention strategies. Primary outcome measures will be the rate of falls and the proportion of fallers recorded by monthly falls diaries and telephone calls over a 12 month period. Secondary outcomes measures will include risk of falling, fall-related self-efficacy score, measures of balance, mobility and strength, fall-related health services use and independence with daily tasks. Data will be analysed using the intention-to-treat principle.The incidence of falls in the intervention and control groups will be calculated and compared using negative binomial regression analysis. Discussion This study is the first trial to be conducted in Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention to prevent falls. If proven to reduce falls this study has the potential to benefit older adults and assist health care practitioners and policy makers to implement and promote effective falls prevention interventions. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01698580)

Theoretical models to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes

This paper shows theoretical models (analytical formulations) to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes and how some parameters can influence this behavior. Thus, firstly, it was developed the analytical formulations for a pressurized tube made of composite material with a single thick ply and only one lamination angle. For this case, the stress distribution and the displacement fields are investigated as function of different lamination angles and reinforcement volume fractions. The results obtained by the theoretical model are physic consistent and coherent with the literature information. After that, the previous formulations are extended in order to predict the mechanical behavior of a thick laminated tube. Both analytical formulations are implemented as a computational tool via Matlab code. The results obtained by the computational tool are compared to the finite element analyses, and the stress distribution is considered coherent. Moreover, the engineering computational tool is used to perform failure analysis, using different types of failure criteria, which identifies the damaged ply and the mode of failure.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

Análisis de la diversidad y genética de la caballa (Scomber colias, Gmelin, 1789) en Canarias y las zonas de influencia como metodología para contribuir en una gestión sostenible de las pesquerías

Diploma de Estudios Avanzados

Untersuchungen zur Position der MALDI-TOF Massenspektrometrie in der Analytik von synthetischen Polymeren

Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit wird die Anwendung der MALDI-TOF Massenspektrometrie auf annähernd monodisperse und eng verteilte Verbindungen polymerer Gestalt beschrieben. Dazu werden mit Polyphenylendendrimeren, Polybutadien-Sternpolymeren, Propionylethyleniminen und Polyethylmethylsiloxanen weniger gängige Verbindungen ausgewählt, für deren Analyse keine Standardmethodik vorliegt. Dabei wird gezeigt, dass andere Analysemethoden (wie z.B. GPC oder NMR) der MALDI-TOF Massenspektrometrie oftmals deutlich unterlegen sind - in einigen Fällen werden deren Ergebnisse gar widerlegt. In anderen Fällen wird allerdings auch festgestellt, dass diese Methoden die Massenspektrometrie unterstützen oder ergänzen können. Im darauf folgenden Teil werden durch Mischen eng verteilter Polymerstandards breite Verteilung simuliert, um so die Gründe für die Limitierung der Anwendbarkeit der MALDI-TOF Massenspektrometrie auf breite Verteilungen zu ermitteln. Die Problematik der Messung von breiten Verteilungen wird oftmals durch eine vorherige Fraktionierung mit der GPC gelöst. Auch dieses Verfahren wird in dieser Arbeit an Hand von simulierten breiten Verteilungen untersucht und bewertet. Neben qualitativen Untersuchungen mit der MALDI-TOF Massenspektrometrie wird in dieser Arbeit abgeschätzt, inwieweit diese Methode auch zur quantitativen Analyse eingesetzt werden kann. Dazu werden die Untersuchungen von Oligo(para-phenylene) (OPP) und von Cyclodehydrierungsprodukten sehr großer Dendrimere (C385, C474) beschrieben. Dabei stellt sich heraus, das neben der direkten UV-Absorption (im Falle der OPPs) auch die zunehmende Ionisierungswahrscheinlichkeit und die sinkende Desorptionswahrscheinlichkeit mit fortschreitender Cyclodehydrierung eine Quantifizierung problematisch gestalten. In einem abschließenden Kapitel wird der Versuch beschrieben, aus polyzyklischen aromatischen Kohlenwasserstoffen (PAHs) durch den Beschuss mit den UV-Strahlen des MALDI-TOF Massenspektrometers Fullerene zu erzeugen. Der Einsatz von NaCl als sogenannte Inertmatrix führt zu vielversprechenden ersten Ergebnissen.