Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Rapid nutrient determination of sugarcane milling by-products using near infrared spectroscopy

This thesis investigates the use of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopic methods for rapid measurement of nutrient elements in mill mud and mill ash. Adoption of NIR-based analyses for carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and silicon will allow Australian sugarcane farmers to comply with recent legislative changes, and act within recommended precision farming frameworks. For these analyses, NIR spectroscopic methods surpass several facets of traditional wet chemistry techniques, dramatically reducing costs, required expertise and chemical exposure, while increasing throughput and access to data. Further, this technology can be applied in various modes, including laboratory, at-line and on-line installations, allowing targeted measurement.

Structure-preserving Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic Hamiltonian equations with additive noise

There has been considerable recent work on the development of energy conserving one-step methods that are not symplectic. Here we extend these ideas to stochastic Hamiltonian problems with additive noise and show that there are classes of Runge-Kutta methods that are very effective in preserving the expectation of the Hamiltonian, but care has to be taken in how the Wiener increments are sampled at each timestep. Some numerical simulations illustrate the performance of these methods.

Behaviour and design of crest-fixed profiled steel roof claddings under wind uplift

Profiled steel roof claddings in Australia are commonly made of very thin high tensile steel and are crest-fixed with screw fasteners. At present the design of these claddings is entirely based on testing. In order to improve the understanding of the behaviour of these claddings under wind uplift, and thus the design methods, a detailed investigation consisting of a finite element analysis and laboratory experiments was carried out on two-span roofing assemblies of three common roofing profiles. It was found that the failure of the roof cladding system was due to a local failure (dimpling of crests/pull-through) at the fasteners. This paper presents the details of the investigation, the results and then proposes a design method based on the strength of the screwed connections, for which testing of small-scale roofing models and/or using a simple design formula is recommended.

Local plastic mechanisms in thin steel plates under in-plane compression

Thin-walled steel plates subjected to in-plane compression develop two types of local plastic mechanism, namely the roof-shaped mechanism and the so-called flip-disc mechanism, but the intriguing question of why two mechanisms should develop was not answered until recently. It was considered that the location of first yield point shifted from the centre of the plate to the midpoint of the longitudinal edge depending on the b/t ratio, imperfection level, and yield stress of steel, which then decided the type of mechanism. This paper has verified this hypothesis using analysis and laboratory experiments. An elastic analysis using Galerkin's method to solve Marguerre's equations was first used to determine the first yield point, based on which the local plastic mechanism/imperfection tolerance tables have been developed which give the type of mechanism as a function of b/t ratio, imperfection level and yield stress of steel. Laboratory experiments of thin-walled columns verified the imperfection tolerance tables and thus indirectly the hypothesis. Elastic and rigid-plastic curves were them used to predict the effect on the ultimate load due to the change of mechanism. A finite element analysis of selected cases also confirmed the results from simple analyses and experiments.

Successful application of a simple specimen transport method for the conduct of respiratory virus surveillance in remote Indigenous communities in Australia

Objective Surveillance programs and research for acute respiratory infections in remote Aboriginal communities are complicated by difficulties in the storage and transport of frozen samples to urban laboratories for testing. This study assessed the sensitivity of a simple method for transporting respiratory samples from a remote setting for viral PCR compared with frozen specimens. Methods We sampled every individual who presented to a remote Aboriginal community clinic in a non-epidemic respiratory season. Two anterior nasal swabs were collected from each participant. The left nare specimen was mailed to the laboratory via routine postal services. The right nare specimen was transported frozen. Testing for 16 viruses was undertaken using real-time multiplex PCR. Results A total of 140 participants were enrolled who contributed 150 study visits. Respiratory illnesses accounted for 10% of the reasons for presentation. Sixty-one viruses were identified in 50 (33.3%) presentations for 40 (28.6%) individuals; bocavirus and rhinovirus were the most common viruses identified (14.0% and 12.6% of episodes respectively). The sensitivity for any virus detected in mailed specimens was 67.2% (95%CI 55.4, 78.9) compared to 65.6% (95%CI 53.7, 77.5) for frozen specimens. Conclusion The mailing of unfrozen nasal specimens from remote communities does not compromise the viability of the specimen for viral studies.

Methods and consequences of suicide attempts among Australian students

Schweitzer et al. previously published a paper in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry which provided prevalence rates on suicidal ideation and behaviour among university students [1]. We wish to provide an update on extensions of our previously published work. In our previous publication we indicated the relatively high percentage of students who reported suicide-related behaviour over the past 12 months (6.6%). This figure is very similar to a more recent study undertaken in the UK where 6% of student respondents reported suicide attempts [2]. As a follow up, we investigated this finding further in studies undertaken in 1994 and 1997 by asking fresh samples of University of Queensland first-year undergraduates who responded positively to the question ‘I have made attempts to kill myself’ (in the past year), to provide additional data relating to the methods employed in their suicide attempts and the consequences following their suicide attempt in terms of level of injury and medical care received...

Ongoing outbreak of dengue serotype 3 in Solomon Islands, January to May 2013

Introduction In January 2013, clinicians in Honiara, Solomon Islands noted several patients presenting with dengue-like illness. Serum from three cases tested positive for dengue by rapid diagnostic test. Subsequent increases in cases were reported, and the outbreak was confirmed as being dengue serotype-3 by further laboratory tests. This report describes the ongoing outbreak investigation, findings and response. Methods Enhanced dengue surveillance was implemented in the capital, Honiara, and in the provinces. This included training health staff on dengue case definitions, data collection and reporting. Vector surveillance was also conducted. Results From 3 January to 15 May 2013, 5254 cases of suspected dengue were reported (101.8 per 10 000 population), including 401 hospitalizations and six deaths. The median age of cases was 20 years (range zero to 90), and 86% were reported from Honiara. Both Aedes aegyti and Aedes albopictus were identified in Honiara. Outbreak response measures included clinical training seminars, vector control activities, implementation of diagnostic and case management protocols and a public communication campaign. Discussion This was the first large dengue outbreak documented in Solomon Islands. Factors that may have contributed to this outbreak include a largely susceptible population, the presence of a highly efficient dengue vector in Honiara, a high-density human population with numerous breeding sites and favourable weather conditions for mosquito proliferation. Although the number of cases has plateaued since 1 April, continued enhanced nationwide surveillance and response activities are necessary.

A computer image analysis system for microvessel density measurement in solid tumours

Microvessel density (MVD) is a widely used surrogate measure of angiogenesis in pathological specimens and tumour models. Measurement of MVD can be achieved by several methods. Automation of counting methods aims to increase the speed, reliability and reproducibility of these techniques. The image analysis system described here enables MVD measurement to be carried out with minimal expense in any reasonably equipped pathology department or laboratory. It is demonstrated that the system translates easily between tumour types which are suitably stained with minimal calibration. The aim of this paper is to offer this technique to a wider field of researchers in angiogenesis.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within-subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.

A review of sedation scales for the cardiac catheterization laboratory

Sedation scales have the potential to facilitate effective procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterization laboratory (CCL). For this potential to become realised, a scale that is suitable for use in the CCL either needs to be identified or developed. To identify sedation scales, a review of Medline and CINHAL was conducted. One sedation scale for the CCL, the NASPE SED, and 15 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) scales met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Analysis of the scale’s item structures and psychometric properties was then performed. None of these scales were deemed suitable for use in the CCL. As such, further research is required to develop a new scale. The new scale should consist of more than one item because it will be the most effective for tracking the patient’s response to medications. Specific tests required to conduct a rigorous evaluation of the new scale’s psychometric properties are outlined in this paper.

Assessing the suitability of market approach valuation methods for mine and quarry valuations

An area of property valuation that has attracted less attention than other property markets over the past 20 years has been the mining and extractive industries. These operations can range from small operators on leased or private land to multinational companies. Although there are a number of national mining standards that indicate the type of valuation methods that can be adopted for this asset class, these standards do not specify how or when these methods are best suited to particular mine operations. The RICS guidance notes and the draft IVSC guidance notes also advise the various valuations methods that can be used to value mining properties; but, again they do not specify what methods should be applied where and when. One of the methods supported by these standards and guidelines is the market approach. This paper will carry out an analysis of all mine, extractive industry and waste disposal sites sale transactions in Queensland Australia, a major world mining centre, to determine if a market valuation approach such as direct comparison is actually suitable for the valuation of a mine or extractive industry. The analysis will cover the period 1984 to 2011 and covers sale transactions for minerals, petroleum and gas, waste disposal sites, clay, sand and stone. Based on this analysis, the suitability of direct comparison for valuation purposes in this property sector will be tested.

A study of the phosphate mineral kapundaite NaCa(Fe3+)4(PO4)4(OH)3⋅5(H2O) using SEM/EDX and vibrational spectroscopic methods

Vibrational spectroscopy enables subtle details of the molecular structure of kapundaite to be determined. Single crystals of a pure phase from a Brazilian pegmatite were used. Kapundaite is the Fe3+ member of the wardite group. The infrared and Raman spectroscopy were applied to compare the structure of kapundaite with wardite. The Raman spectrum of kapundaite in the 800–1400 cm−1 spectral range shows two intense bands at 1089 and 1114 cm−1 assigned to the ν1PO43- symmetric stretching vibrations. The observation of two bands provides evidence for the non-equivalence of the phosphate units in the kapundaite structure. The infrared spectrum of kapundaite in the 500–1300 cm−1 shows much greater complexity than the Raman spectrum. Strong infrared bands are found at 966, 1003 and 1036 cm−1 and are attributed to the ν1PO43- symmetric stretching mode and ν3PO43- antisymmetric stretching mode. Raman bands in the ν4 out of plane bending modes of the PO43- unit support the concept of non-equivalent phosphate units in the kapundaite structure. In the 2600–3800 cm−1 spectral range, Raman bands for kapundaite are found at 2905, 3151, 3311, 3449 and 3530 cm−1. These bands are broad and are assigned to OH stretching vibrations. Broad infrared bands are also found at 2904, 3105, 3307, 3453 and 3523 cm−1 and are attributed to water. Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has enabled aspects of the structure of kapundaite to be ascertained and compared with that of other phosphate minerals.