Safety and Feasibility of a Diagnostic Algorithm Combining Clinical Probability, d-Dimer Testing, and Ultrasonography for Suspected Upper Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis: A Prospective Management Study.

BACKGROUND Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Bounds for the probability generating functional of a Gibbs point process

We derive explicit lower and upper bounds for the probability generating functional of a stationary locally stable Gibbs point process, which can be applied to summary statistics such as the F function. For pairwise interaction processes we obtain further estimates for the G and K functions, the intensity, and higher-order correlation functions. The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method for Poisson point process approximation.

Inverse modelling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.

Uniqueness of the Embedding Continuous Convolution Semigroup of a Gaussian Probability Measure on the Affine Group and an Application in Mathematical Finance

Let {μ(i)t}t≥0 ( i=1,2 ) be continuous convolution semigroups (c.c.s.) of probability measures on Aff(1) (the affine group on the real line). Suppose that μ(1)1=μ(2)1 . Assume furthermore that {μ(1)t}t≥0 is a Gaussian c.c.s. (in the sense that its generating distribution is a sum of a primitive distribution and a second-order differential operator). Then μ(1)t=μ(2)t for all t≥0 . We end up with a possible application in mathematical finance.

Beamlet based direct aperture optimization for MERT using a photon MLC

PURPOSE A beamlet based direct aperture optimization (DAO) for modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT) using photon multileaf collimator (pMLC) shaped electron fields is developed and investigated. METHODS The Swiss Monte Carlo Plan (SMCP) allows the calculation of dose distributions for pMLC shaped electron beams. SMCP is interfaced with the Eclipse TPS (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) which can thus be included into the inverse treatment planning process for MERT. This process starts with the import of a CT-scan into Eclipse, the contouring of the target and the organs at risk (OARs), and the choice of the initial electron beam directions. For each electron beam, the number of apertures, their energy, and initial shape are defined. Furthermore, the DAO requires dose-volume constraints for the structures contoured. In order to carry out the DAO efficiently, the initial electron beams are divided into a grid of beamlets. For each of those, the dose distribution is precalculated using a modified electron beam model, resulting in a dose list for each beamlet and energy. Then the DAO is carried out, leading to a set of optimal apertures and corresponding weights. These optimal apertures are now converted into pMLC shaped segments and the dose calculation for each segment is performed. For these dose distributions, a weight optimization process is launched in order to minimize the differences between the dose distribution using the optimal apertures and the pMLC segments. Finally, a deliverable dose distribution for the MERT plan is obtained and loaded back into Eclipse for evaluation. For an idealized water phantom geometry, a MERT treatment plan is created and compared to the plan obtained using a previously developed forward planning strategy. Further, MERT treatment plans for three clinical situations (breast, chest wall, and parotid metastasis of a squamous cell skin carcinoma) are created using the developed inverse planning strategy. The MERT plans are compared to clinical standard treatment plans using photon beams and the differences between the optimal and the deliverable dose distributions are determined. RESULTS For the idealized water phantom geometry, the inversely optimized MERT plan is able to obtain the same PTV coverage, but with an improved OAR sparing compared to the forwardly optimized plan. Regarding the right-sided breast case, the MERT plan is able to reduce the lung volume receiving more than 30% of the prescribed dose and the mean lung dose compared to the standard plan. However, the standard plan leads to a better homogeneity within the CTV. The results for the left-sided thorax wall are similar but also the dose to the heart is reduced comparing MERT to the standard treatment plan. For the parotid case, MERT leads to lower doses for almost all OARs but to a less homogeneous dose distribution for the PTV when compared to a standard plan. For all cases, the weight optimization successfully minimized the differences between the optimal and the deliverable dose distribution. CONCLUSIONS A beamlet based DAO using multiple beam angles is implemented and successfully tested for an idealized water phantom geometry and clinical situations.

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging detects significant prostate cancer with high probability

PURPOSE We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a prospective study of 111 consecutive men with prostate and/or bladder cancer who underwent 3 Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of the pelvis without an endorectal coil before radical prostatectomy (78) or cystoprostatectomy (33). Three independent readers blinded to clinical and pathological data assigned a prostate cancer suspicion grade based on qualitative imaging analysis. Final pathology results of prostates with and without cancer served as the reference standard. Primary outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer with significance defined as a largest diameter of the index lesion of 1 cm or greater, extraprostatic extension, or Gleason score 7 or greater on final pathology assessment. Secondary outcomes were interreader agreement assessed by the Fleiss κ coefficient and image reading time. RESULTS Of the 111 patients 93 had prostate cancer, which was significant in 80 and insignificant in 13, and 18 had no prostate cancer on final pathology results. The sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant PCa was 89% to 91% and 77% to 81%, respectively, for the 3 readers. Interreader agreement was good (Fleiss κ 0.65 to 0.74). Median reading time was between 13 and 18 minutes. CONCLUSIONS Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (3 Tesla) is a noninvasive technique that allows for the detection of significant prostate cancer with high probability without contrast medium or an endorectal coil, and with good interreader agreement and a short reading time. This technique should be further evaluated as a tool to stratify patients with prostate cancer for individualized treatment options.

Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

Prospective randomised comparison of diagnostic confidence and image quality with normal-dose and low-dose CT pulmonary angiography at various body weights.

OBJECTIVES To find a threshold body weight (BW) below 100 kg above which computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) using reduced radiation and a reduced contrast material (CM) dose provides significantly impaired quality and diagnostic confidence compared with standard-dose CTPA. METHODS In this prospectively randomised study of 501 patients with suspected pulmonary embolism and BW <100 kg, 246 were allocated into the low-dose group (80 kVp, 75 ml CM) and 255 into the normal-dose group (100 kVp, 100 ml CM). Contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) in the pulmonary trunk was calculated. Two blinded chest radiologists independently evaluated subjective image quality and diagnostic confidence. Data were compared between the normal-dose and low-dose groups in five BW subgroups. RESULTS Vessel attenuation did not differ between the normal-dose and low-dose groups within each BW subgroup (P = 1.0). The CNR was higher with the normal-dose compared with the low-dose protocol (P < 0.006) in all BW subgroups except for the 90-99 kg subgroup (P = 0.812). Subjective image quality and diagnostic confidence did not differ between CT protocols in all subgroups (P between 0.960 and 1.0). CONCLUSIONS Subjective image quality and diagnostic confidence with 80 kVp CTPA is not different from normal-dose protocol in any BW group up to 100 kg. KEY POINTS • 80 kVp CTPA is safe in patients weighing <100 kg • Reduced radiation and iodine dose still provide high vessel attenuation • Image quality and diagnostic confidence with low-dose CTPA is good • Diagnostic confidence does not deteriorate in obese patients weighing <100 kg.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Inverse fusion PCR cloning.

Inverse fusion PCR cloning (IFPC) is an easy, PCR based three-step cloning method that allows the seamless and directional insertion of PCR products into virtually all plasmids, this with a free choice of the insertion site. The PCR-derived inserts contain a vector-complementary 5'-end that allows a fusion with the vector by an overlap extension PCR, and the resulting amplified insert-vector fusions are then circularized by ligation prior transformation. A minimal amount of starting material is needed and experimental steps are reduced. Untreated circular plasmid, or alternatively bacteria containing the plasmid, can be used as templates for the insertion, and clean-up of the insert fragment is not urgently required. The whole cloning procedure can be performed within a minimal hands-on time and results in the generation of hundreds to ten-thousands of positive colonies, with a minimal background.